EPIC JOURNEY

CA: The Ads of Late Summer

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Fri, 10 Sep 2010 17:59:00 +0000

Jerry Brown runs as a fiscally conservative job-creator:

Meg Whitman deploys Bill Clinton to rebut:

The US Chamber of Commerce is going after Boxer as someone who puts smelt before workers:

And Boxer answers with a jobs spot:

OFA, RIP?

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Fri, 10 Sep 2010 12:46:00 +0000

Time reports:

What happened to Barack Obama's once vaunted political machine? The outfit that put upwards of 8 million volunteers on the street in 2008 — known as Organizing for America — is a ghost of its former self. Its staff has shrunk from 6,000 to 300, and its donors are depressed: receipts are a fraction of what they were in 2008. Virtually no one in politics believes it will turn many contests this fall. "There's no chance that OFA is going to have the slightest impact on the midterms," says Charlie Cook, who tracks congressional races.

Neglect is to blame. After Obama was elected, his political aides ignored the army he had created until it eventually disappeared. No one was in charge; decisions were often deferred but rarely made. By the time they realized they needed more troops, says longtime consultant Joe Trippi, "their supporters had taken a vacation from politics."

DNC communications director Brad Woodhouse pushes back:

This is a ridiculous bit of reporting that didn't deserve the five graphs it was given. Who in the world would think it is appropriate to compare the scale of effort that takes place in a presidential election year with that of a midterm — it'd be like comparing an ant to elephant and criticizing the ant for not measuring up in size and stature. The fact is, the $50 million vote 2010 plan, which includes thousands of volunteers and hundreds of paid staff in all 50 states, concentrated in key states and districts, is the largest and most robust investment of resources in terms of money, personnel and volunteers for a midterm election in the history of the DNC. If anything, the effort we have undertaken here should be compared to previous midterm efforts of the party and not to a presidential election in which the two candidates raised and spent more than $1 billion.

In addition, the writer offers nothing to back up the assertion that we allowed OFA to languish after the election, which is a flat out misstatement of the facts. Within a matter of days after President Obama was sworn in, OFA was organizing thousands of events in support of the Recovery Act — hardly something that would have occurred if we had not been paying close attention to our supporters. Incidentally, since OFA launched in its present form, we have added 2.6 million people to the e-mail list and 5.1 million people have taken action through OFA — all of this before the midterm elections even have gotten into fool swing (sic). These are figures provided to the writer but which were not used because they did not fit the premise of the story she was writing.

Filling Gaps in the White House Website, Part 49

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 20:53:00 +0000

On Good Morning America, George Stephanopoulos asked the president about his attack on John Boehner:

STEPHANOPOULOS: So, it seemed like you were out there to make-- Congressman Boehner the most famous Republican in America today. (LAUGH)

OBAMA: Well, you know Congressman Boehner is saying that Republicans have a good chance of winning the…House.

STEPHANOPOULOS: I talked to him this morning. He seemed pretty confident.

OBAMA: And he thinks he may be Speaker. And I think it's very important that the American People understand what the Republicans are offering, which is essentially more of the same. I mean, we have seen what their policies have done. And the recession that we've gone through and the financial crisis we've gone through is a direct culmination of a series of decisions they made over the course of several years in which they were in charge. And we have now spent two very difficult years trying to pull the economy out of the ditch. And I just want the American People to understand exactly what the choice is in November.

Stephanopoulos also asked about the midterm more generally:

STEPHANOPOULOS: Can you save the House in the next eight weeks?

OBAMA: I think, I am very confident that if people know what the choice is, if people take a look at what Democrats stand for and what Republicans stand for, who we're fighting for, and who they're fighting for, then we will win. And so, my challenge, and the challenge of every Democratic candidate who's out there is just making sure the people understand there's a choice here.

STEPHANOPOULOS: And now you're--

OBAMA: If the election is a referendum on are people satisfied about the economy as it currently is, then we're not going to do well. Because I think everybody feels like this economy needs to do better than it's been doing.

American Crossroads: Super PAC,Super 501

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 13:12:00 +0000

Bloomberg reports:

At least 25 “super PACS,” including one linked to Karl Rove, are fueling a surge in money for this year’s elections following the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down limits on corporate campaign spending.

These political action committees can take unlimited company, union and individual donations and explicitly urge voters to support or oppose candidates, unlike ordinary PACs and nonprofit groups. Like other PACs, they must register with the Federal Election Commission and disclose donors.

“They can say whatever they want politically in the advertising,” said Michael Toner, a former FEC chairman who’s among the lawyers dubbing them super PACs. “It’s very liberating.”
...
American Crossroads may be the biggest. Rove and former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie serve as fundraisers and informal advisers for the group, headed by former Republican chairman Mike Duncan.

American Crossroads spent $454,342 last month to support Republican Rob Portman’s Ohio Senate bid. Its nonprofit arm released new ads on Sept. 2 as part of a $3 million buy targeting four Democrats: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado and Senate nominees Jack Conway in Kentucky and Robin Carnahan in Missouri.

Politico reports:

One of those 501(c)(4)s is Crossroads GPS, a spinoff of the new group American Crossroads, which was formed by former Bush officials Ed Gillespie and Karl Rove. The original group was registered under 527 of the tax code, which gave it far more discretion to spend its cash to directly advocate for or attack candidates — but required that its donors’ names be disclosed to the public.

Last month, Crossroads GPS spent $1 million in ads to bolster the candidacy of Republican Carly Fiorina in her race against Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer. It spent an additional $1.2 million in Colorado against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, who is trying to hold onto his seat amid a fierce challenge from Republican Ken Buck. It spent nearly $800,000 in advertisements attacking policies supported by Reid, helping his opponent, Sharron Angle, in Nevada. It spent an additional $341,000 in Kentucky in the race between Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Jack Conway, and it dropped $1 million more in Missouri to defeat Democrat Robin Carnahan, who is facing GOP Rep. Roy Blunt. And it spent an additional $561,460 in the race between Republican Pat Toomey and Rep. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania.

Jonathan Collegio, a spokesman for Crossroads GPS, said that the purpose of the nearly $5 million in advertisements last month was to “illuminate the legislative record of the senators we are focused on.” And he added that 501(c)(4)s exist on “all sides of the political spectrum … not just on the right.”

Indeed, Democratic-aligned organizations are registered under the 501(c) section of the tax code, like MoveOn.org, Center for American Progress and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.

But of those groups, only AFSCME spent cash on the airwaves for Senate Democratic candidates last month, with $535,000 in Missouri and $322,000 in Nevada. The biggest spender of ad buys from Democratic-allied third-party groups — not including the state and national parties — was the Patriot Majority, a 527 group that spent $911,000 in Nevada ad buys, mainly attacking Angle.

In Search of Enemies, Continued

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 12:51:00 +0000

"Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it." -- Saul Alinsky

Byron York writes:

In his economic speech in Cleveland [sic, Parma], President Obama mentioned House Minority Leader John Boehner by name seven times -- a striking change from the president's speech in Milwaukee Monday in which he referred to Boehner only as "the man who thinks he's going to be Speaker." With the Democrats' hold on the House of Representatives in deep jeopardy, the president has apparently decided to make the campaign in part a personal showdown between himself and Boehner. It's a risky strategy, one that elevates a House minority leader to an eye-to-eye level with the President of the United States. And by personalizing the conflict with Boehner, it also casts the coming elections as a referendum on Obama's performance at a time when Democrats would prefer a series of more local contests.

American Crossroads Spending

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 16:23:00 +0000

Jonathan Martin reports at Politico:

Mississippi Gov. and Republican Governors Association Chairman Haley Barbour said Wednesday that the RNC’s financial difficulties had forced him to direct millions of dollars to voter turnout programs that are typically funded by the national party.

In his most candid public assessment to date about what the Republican National Committee’s cash crunch meant for gubernatorial races, Barbour hung a price tag on the woes of the beleaguered party he once chaired.“We have to come up with about $10 million that normally would have been pushed into the governors races in various directions, largely through state parties," Barbour said at a press breakfast in Washington, addressing what he called “the impact” of the national party’s deficiencies... Republican candidates will get some help from the new third-party group American Crossroads, which has set up a GOTV component to fill the void, but it can’t by law coordinate its efforts with party officials.

AP's Jim Kuhnhenn reports:

Among the most prominent is American Crossroads and its allied groups. It was created under the direction of former Bush political strategist Karl Rove and former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie. The operation is run out of offices two blocks from the White House.

"We wanted to create a group that was monolithically focused on helping get Republicans elected," said Steve Law, the president and CEO of American Crossroads and a former U.S. Chamber of Commerce lawyer.

Politicians often point to their small-dollar donations as evidence of broad appeal. But American Crossroads and its affiliates are relying on large corporate and individual donors, the fastest and most efficient way to build their budgets. Law said he has seen some increase in small-dollar giving to his groups, but added, "We haven't spent a lot of time cultivating that."

While American Crossroads and groups like it represent the mainstream of the Republican Party, the Tea Party Express is the party's occasional ally but more regularly a thorn in its side. Its Our Country Deserves Better PAC spent nearly $600,000 to help Republican Joe Miller defeat Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the Alaska primary. Murkowski had the GOP's backing.

CNN reports:

No fewer than five special interest groups have run television commercials in Nevada since June in an effort to try and influence a small group of voters who will decide whether Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid wins a fifth term.

The groups, four pro-Republican and one pro-Democrat, have spent at least $2.8 million on TV ads since Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle won the GOP nomination at the beginning of the summer. Angle, herself, has spent more than $2.6 million on commercials, while Reid aired more than $1.9 million on TV ads in this same three month time period. Today, Reid put a new commercial on TV that is sharply critical of Angle.

In total, nearly $7.5 million worth of television commercials for this Senate contest have aired since June, according to an analysis by Campaign Media Analysis Group for CNN. And that number is expected to double by Election Day.

“Nevada is going to be one of the highest profile races in the country,” said Evan Tracey, CMAG’s president and CNN’s consultant on political television advertising. “Ads will be wall-to-wall on the airwaves.”

The pro-Democratic group, Patriot Majority, has spent more than $1.6 million on pro-Reid commercials.

American Crossroads and Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies, two groups affiliated with Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie, are responsible for the bulk of the pro-Republican spending in this race. American Crossroads has aired a little more than $622,000 worth of ads, while Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies has spent about $416,000 on commercials. Another national GOP group, Citizens United, has run more than $60,000 worth of TV ads and Las Vegas-based Americans for New Leadership spent about $38,000 on commercials.

Enthusiasm Gap, Turnout Gap

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 03:02:00 +0000

The Center for the Study of the American Electorate reports:

In another sign that the Democratic Party is in deep trouble in the 2010 mid-term elections, the average Republican vote for statewide offices (U.S. Senator and Governor) in the primaries held through August 28 exceeded the Democratic vote, the first time this has happened in mid-term primaries since 1930, according to Curtis Gans, director of American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate.

CA: Labor Day

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 20:44:00 +0000

In recent years, attitudes toward labor unions have turned more unfavorable. They supply money and campaign work, but at a price in public disapproval.

Carla Marinucci writes in The San Francisco Chronicle:

Those public-sector union workers have become a political target as state and local governments struggle through fiscal crises. Whitman, for one, has called for laying off 40,000 in the state's workforce.

Andrea Jones Rivera, a spokeswoman for Whitman, said in a statement Monday that "Jerry Brown is bought and paid for by the government unions who stand directly opposed to the meaningful change we desperately need in Sacramento. Brown has outsourced his campaign to the government unions. If he's elected, what does their $14 million investment in his campaign get them in return, exactly what they want? California cannot afford a Jerry Brown third term."

Brian Seitchik, spokesman for the California Republican Party, said: "It should be no surprise that the Democrats spent Labor Day kissing the rings of their party's real boss: government unions."

Private sector union jobs are disappearing, as The Los Angeles Times reports:

The recession is taking a toll on union jobs, which are disappearing in California at a faster rate than anywhere else in the country, according to a UCLA study published Monday.

In the 12 months ending in June, the union membership rate dropped from 18.3% to 17.6% in California and from 12.4% to 12.1% nationwide, the study found. The drop was most acute in the counties of Los Angeles, Riverside, Orange, Ventura and San Bernardino, where unionization rates fell from 17.5% to 16.5%.

The loss of union jobs has wiped out two years of gains, putting membership rates in the U.S. and California back to around 2007-08 levels, said Lauren Appelbaum, director of the UCLA Institute for Research on Labor and Employment and the report's lead author.

The report is here.

In Search of Enemies

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Mon, 06 Sep 2010 12:29:00 +0000

David Plouffe carries on the Democratic search for enemies. From yesterday's "Meet the Press" transcript:

MR. GREGORY: Joining us now with a view from the other side we turn to the man who is in charge of getting Barack Obama elected president, his 2008 campaign manager and author of the newly-updated paperback version of his book, "The Audacity to Win: How Obama Won and How We Can Beat the Party of Limbaugh, Beck, and Palin."
...
MR. GREGORY: Finally, a quote from your book, handicapping the Republican field, this is what you write in the new part of "Audacity to Win." "This is the Republican Party of 2010, and I think it will be the Republican Party for a long time. It is hard to see how a Republican gets the presidential nomination without winning the plurality of the Palin-Limbaugh-Beck base of the Republican Party. Without a drastic change in orientation, they will probably nominate someone a good bit out of the mainstream." Who do you have in mind? Who do you think is the most formidable Republican likely to challenge President Obama?

MR. PLOUFFE: Oh, I have no idea. I mean, this time four years ago there was very few of us talking about Barack Obama running for president, including me. So I think some of the people that we think are going to run may not run. There'll be other people who'll run. We'll see. I wish I could just sit back with a tub of popcorn and, and enjoy it because I think it's going to be quite an adventure.

MR. GREGORY: But who is the leader of the Republican Party, would you say?

MR. PLOUFFE: I think the--I think right now--and this is a problem for them long term--I do think that Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Sarah Palin, they are the leaders of the party. And you see whenever--I was struck by--Senator Coburn from Oklahoma, I think, was at a town hall meeting and said, "I don't agree with anything the Democrats are doing, and I don't agree with Speaker Pelosi, but she's a nice person," and got attacked for that. There, there is an intolerance in that party and an extremism that I think is where the real energy is. And so I think, as you see in '11 and '12, as that presidential primary, those are the people that are going to come out to vote. So I think that's where the real energy is, and I think particularly in, in elections where more people vote, in presidential elections where you have a lot more younger people, minorities, independent voters who skew a little bit more moderate, that's going to be a big problem. So we'll just have to wait and see.

But let's get this--through this election first, and then we'll be right on to the next one.

Limbaugh and Palin have high negatives. Beck has less visibility. In a April 2010 CBS poll, 64 percent were either undecided or did not know enough about him to have an opinion. The rest were evenly split.

Republican and Democratic Problems

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Sun, 05 Sep 2010 11:14:00 +0000

Janet Hook and Tom Hamburger report in the Los Angeles Times:

A recent Gallup poll gives Republicans nationwide a 10-point edge in popularity, the largest in the recent history of midterm elections. That means more and more congressional seats are in play.

The party's biggest obstacle to taking advantage of that expanded playing field is money. Republican challengers, if they are unknown to voters, are especially vulnerable to advertising purchased by deep-pocketed Democratic incumbents.

For instance, in the GOP effort to unseat Democratic Rep. Patrick J. Murphy in the suburbs of Philadelphia, polls show the GOP challenger leading Murphy, 48% to 41%. But the area is an expensive media market, and the National Republican Congressional Committee has not included it in its first wave of advertising.

That means attack ads may not be countered in time. "Money can buy you confusion; it can buy a lot of fear," said Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Ga.).

Jeanne Cummings elaborates in Politico:

Alarmed by the hobbled financial status of the Republican National Committee, state party leaders now are turning to outside groups — or creating their own — to ensure they have a robust voter turnout operation in November that can swamp the competition.

In Ohio, a group of Republican activists in July created a new, tax-exempt entity called Freedom Vote with the express purpose of raising money to help pay for the type of turnout operations traditionally underwritten by the RNC.“I understood that the lack of resources from the RNC was going to have a severe impact on what the parties were going to be able to do,” said Tom Whatman, a former Ohio state party executive director and an adviser to the new organization.

But much larger problems confront the Democrats, as Jeff Zeleny and Carl Hulse write in The New York Times:

As Democrats brace for a November wave that threatens their control of the House, party leaders are preparing a brutal triage of their own members in hopes of saving enough seats to keep a slim grip on the majority.

In the next two weeks, Democratic leaders will review new polls and other data that show whether vulnerable incumbents have a path to victory. If not, the party is poised to redirect money to concentrate on trying to protect up to two dozen lawmakers who appear to be in the strongest position to fend off their challengers.

“We are going to have to win these races one by one,” said Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, conceding that the party would ultimately cut loose members who had not gained ground.

With the midterm campaign entering its final two months, Democrats acknowledged that several races could quickly move out of their reach, including re-election bids by Representatives Betsy Markey of Colorado, Tom Perriello of Virginia, Mary Jo Kilroy of Ohio and Frank Kratovil Jr. of Maryland, whose districts were among the 55 Democrats won from Republicans in the last two election cycles.

Representatives John M. Spratt Jr. of South Carolina, chairman of the Budget Committee, and Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota, who is seeking a 10th term, are among the senior Democrats who have appeared to gain little ground in the summer months in the toxic political environment. A sputtering economy and discontent with Washington have created a high sense of voter unease that has also put control of the Senate in question.

CA: Whitman Wealth

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Sat, 04 Sep 2010 21:34:00 +0000

Variety reports on Whitman ad buys:

According to the Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Whitman has, since June, run 32,000 TV ads across the state at a cost of $21 million. Brown has run no spots, but he's been aided by independent groups that have spent $9 million on some 4,000 ads. He's expected to start running spots soon after Labor Day.
Evan Tracey, president of CMAG, says Whitman's coffers will prove especially useful in the last 30 days of the campaign, when "elections are won or lost," and as the race becomes about attracting the last 8% or 9% of undecided voters.
Her campaign last week started running spots in the Bay Area slamming Brown's tenure as mayor of Oakland. They don't expect to win the heavily liberal region of the state, but the luxury of being able to spend on that kind of effort means she may chip away at Brown's lead there.
"There seems to be a lot of variety in what she is running, and they are doing a good job in mixing it up," Tracey says. "There are so many options competing for people's time, and the political response has been to just turn up the volume. It's just hard to see a scenario where she is overexposed."
In 2008, Barack Obama had to introduce himself to the public and, like Whitman's, his campaign saturated media markets; ad spots were even embedded in videogames. The blitz proved especially fruitful in the final month before the election, when Obama's campaign ran just as many or more negative spots than John McCain's, but it was McCain's campaign that got slammed for being too harsh. That's because Obama also was able to also run a concurrent positive campaign, evoking the message of hope and change, Tracey notes.
The same scenario may hold true for Whitman.
"When you have a lot of money, you don't have to rely on a couple of spots to break through," he says.

The Los Angeles Times reports more broadly on her spending:

"She has the money to do everything," said Garry South, a Democratic consultant who ran Gray Davis' campaigns for governor, "and she is doing everything."
...

"We're doing things much more aggressively than they've ever been done before," said spokesman Tucker Bounds. "The frequency of the activity and the size of the political organization is an enormous investment, but we believe it will pay off on election day."

...
Democratic consultant Darry Sragow said a typical candidate might spend $300,000 on polling in the primary and a like sum in the general election. Whitman's figures suggest a sharply different strategy than anything seen before.

"They know as much as anybody could know about the mind-set of the California electorate," he said.
...

Trackers follow Brown with smart phones that can send live video of him to a "war room," where aides launch responses before a Brown event ends. Consultants have designed two websites, one attacking Brown's record, the other attacking the leadership of one of his biggest backers, the California Nurses Assn.

Apart from those traditional campaign methods, Whitman's effort is relying on newer techniques to try to build loyalty among voters. Borrowing a tactic from other campaigns, including Obama's, Whitman's has taught volunteers how to use their personal computers to make calls to voters and immediately feed information about their intentions back to headquarters.

Data are compiled and used to reach specific segments of the electorate through tele-town halls, for which thousands of likely voters are patched onto a conference call with the candidate. Cable TV viewers watching a Whitman ad are encouraged to push a button on their remote controls if they want Whitman's job creation plan mailed to their homes.

"The idea is to spend vast amounts on technology to chop up the electorate as many ways as possible so you're hitting a Fresno woman making $40,000 to $50,000 a year who cares about education and air quality," said Adam Mendelsohn, a Republican consultant.

The campaign has spent $4.5 million on information technology and Web development, most of which went to Tokoni, a social networking firm run by former EBay associates. Last week Whitman's team unveiled its own iPhone application.

On a recent visit to the campaign's Silicon Valley offices, programmers were working to add Facebook-style flair to Whitman's website: Supporters will have a home page where they can monitor campaign activity, write articles and see which of their local civic and elected leaders have endorsed Whitman. They can also find the location of the closest field office and the phone number of the local precinct leader.

American Crossroads Ads

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Sat, 04 Sep 2010 21:11:00 +0000

The Center for Responsive Politics reports:

ROVE-BACKED GROUP KEEPS NEW ADS COMING: Television viewers in Nevada, Colorado, Missouri and Kentucky are seeing new attack ads paid for a group called “Crossroads GPS” targeting the Democratic Senate candidates in each state, Talking Points Memo reports. Crossroads GPS, or Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies, is a 501(c)4 non-profit group conceived by some of the highest profile Republican strategists, including Karl Rove, President George W. Bush’s political guru, and Ed Gillespie, a former chair of the Republican National Committee. The group was launched in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission ruling that overturned a ban on corporate donations to groups producing communications that advocate for or against federal candidates.

Because it is organized under section 501(c)4 of U.S. tax code, donations to it are not tax-deductible, and it is allowed to engage in more overt political messages and lobbying compared to 501(c)3 non-profits, which face more restrictions but are allowed to raise tax-deductible donations. This status also allows the group to avoid disclosing any information about its donors until well after the election -- as it won’t submit any filings to the Internal Revenue Service until months into 2011.

One of the group’s related organizations, American Crossroads, has registered with the Federal Election Commission and reported raising $5.3 million through the end of July, according to a Center for Responsive Politics review of its most recently filed report. The bulk of that money came from wealthy individuals and corporations. Individuals, groups and corporations giving more to American Crossroads than they legally would have been allowed to give to a political committee prior to Citizens United include Southwest Louisiana Land LLC; Tejon Exploration Company; TRT Holdings Inc.; Dixie Rice Agricultural Corporation; the Jerry Perenchio Living Trust; B. Wayne Hughes, the chairman of Public Storage; investor William Harte; investor Dian Graves Stai and investor J.J. Matthews.

And such spending by organizations of all political stripes is likely to continue unabated during the next 60 days until the election. Evan Tracey of Kantar Media/CMAG, which tracks media spending, recently told trade publication Advertising Age that groups are on pace to spend a record $3 billion on TV ads this year. So far groups have spent a combined $864 million on political TV ads so far this cycle -- $50 million more than was spend during the 2008 elections, Tracey said.

The Authors on Midterms

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Sat, 04 Sep 2010 11:49:00 +0000

In the Weekly Standard, Daniel DiSalvo and James Ceaser write that "typical" midterms result in only modest losses for the party holding the presidency. The last four midterms, however, have all been atypical. In 1998 and 2002, the in-party actually gained seats. In 1994 and 2006, it lost far more than the norm. The upcoming midterm seems to be heading in the latter direction, with big Democratic losses.

Whether midterm elections that topple the governing party provide “mandates” for the new majority is another matter. The incoming party has every incentive to portray the results as not only a rebuke of the president, but also an indication of public support for its agenda.

This year, if Republicans capture one or both houses of Congress, they will undoubtedly argue that they have a warrant to pursue their policy goals: revisiting Obamacare and altering the stimulus policies. Yet, two leading electoral analysts, Norman Ornstein and Alan Abramowitz, recently cautioned the GOP against pressing its case too assertively. They argue that such tactics can backfire and cite the example of Gingrich in 1994 to make their point.

While Gingrich’s grandstanding may have helped Clinton win reelection in 1996, Republican majorities did force major changes in public policy. Of course, such changes only happened because Clinton was flexible enough—and found it in his interest—to play ball. If Republicans are victorious this fall, they may wish to gently remind Obama what he peremptorily told them after dismissing their complaints about the stimulus bill: “I won.”

In an age when so much attention is focused on the president, midterm elections spotlight the separation of powers. Congress doesn’t speak with the same unitary voice as the president, but a decisive outcome in congressional elections can still send a message loud and clear.

At a roundtable at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Andrew Busch and Jack Pitney discussed historical analogies. Video here.

American Crossroads, RNC Woes,and Issue Ads

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:21:00 +0000

David Drucker reports at CQ Politics:

Now, as the DCCC and DSCC are looking to reap the benefits of an Obama-run DNC — which has budgeted $50 million for the fall campaign, including $30 million on field operations and a combined $20 million cash injection to the two Democratic campaign committees, Republicans are relying in large part on third-party groups such as American Crossroads, a 527 with two former GOP campaign committee strategists at the helm and a former RNC chairman on its board.

“I have not heard one GOP operative or staff member who thinks that the RNC will have a dime for them,” said one Republican operative working on a Senate race. “In fact, we are setting up our own Victory Operation with the thought that there won’t be any money there at the end.”

Firedoglake is critical:

You can see all four ads, backed by “American Crossroads,” the Rove/Ed Gillespie outfit designed mainly to attract donors who want no part of the RNC, here. Two of them attack sitting Senators, Harry Reid and Michael Bennet. But while the spots clearly are generic, attacking the stimulus package and various studies to fund ant research and the effects of cocaine on monkeys (This is on the “McCain principle” that any funding involving animals is necessary funny and therefore wasteful), at the end of the spots, a billboard comes up at the end requesting the viewer to call their Senator and tell them to “vote no on S.Amdt 4594.”

Surely, every viewer watching this ad will know exactly what S.Amdt. 4594 is all about. But in case you don’t, it happens to be the small business lending bill, scheduled for a vote when the Senate returns from recess on September 13.

Nowhere in this ad does it mention the small business lending bill, or small businesses in general. The line right above “vote no on S.Amdt 4594″ says “Nevada needs jobs, not more spending.” The small business lending bill, which is fully paid for, is designed to provide credit to small businesses so they can expand their operations. I don’t think it’s bound to be particularly effective, the Independent Community Bankers of America estimated that it would create 500,000 jobs.

You don’t have to believe them, but my central point is a bit different. This doesn’t come close to being an “issue ad,” in any reasonable sense of the term. Rove’s group is giving the impression of one to avoid disclosure and probably keep the tax-exempt status of Crossroads GPS, the umbrella organization supplying the ads.

CA: A Very Expensive Primary Win

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 02:49:00 +0000

The Sacramento Bee reports:

The nearly $100 million price tag on Republican gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman's primary win breaks down as the second-highest spending per primary vote by a largely self-funded gubernatorial candidate, according to an analysis released today by The Fair Political Practices Commission. ...
Here are the self-funded candidates who spent the most per vote. Just Whitman and Bill Simon won their primary contests:
1. Al Checchi $70.21 (1998 Democratic gubernatorial primary)
2. Meg Whitman $65.29 (2010 Republican gubernatorial primary)
3. Steve Westly $45.29 (2006 Democratic gubernatorial primary
4. Steve Poizner $43.64 (2010 Republican gubernatorial primary)
5. Jane Harman $29.59 (1998 Democratic gubernatorial primary)
6. Bill Simon $17.31 (2002 Republican gubernatorial primary)

Click here to read the full report.

American Crossroads in Nevada and Missouri

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 12:44:00 +0000

Politico reports:

SCORE PREVIEW – CROSSROADS ASSAULT CONTINUES: Crossroads GPS, an arm of the conservative campaign group American Crossroads, has put two new commercials into rotation in the Nevada and Missouri Senate races. The Nevada spot hammers Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid for supporting the stimulus, using the John McCain- and Tom Coburn-authored list of the law’s most objectionable projects to suggest that Reid’s taken his eye off the economic ball. “Harry’s stimulus sent nearly $2 million to California to collect ants – in Africa. Twenty-five million for new chair lifts and snowmaking in Vermont. Almost three hundred thousand to Texas to study weather – on Venus,” the narrator says. “Meanwhile, back in Nevada, we still have the highest unemployment and record foreclosures. Really, Harry, how about some help for Nevada?” Watch the Nevada spot here: http://bit.ly/9Eqvly

MORE: In Missouri, Crossroads GPS ties Democratic Senate candidate Robin Carnahan to national health care reform, urging her to support a state-level challenge led by Republican Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder instead of “the Obamacare law that could raise our health insurance premiums and cut billions from Medicare.” Here’s the Missouri ad: http://bit.ly/aSyx3W (Crossroads has also been running ads in Colorado http://bit.ly/9GtduY and Kentucky. http://bit.ly/blpyY8.)

How Would a GOP House Work?

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 16:40:00 +0000

Politico reports:

If Republicans win the House in November, John Boehner and his top lieutenants say they’re ready to spread the power.

Look for a return of committee influence in preparing legislation — re-establishing the authority of diminished chairmen — and an easing of the hammerlock that leaders of both parties have exercised.
They make clear that they plan not only to change the top-down management style of Speaker Nancy Pelosi but also to pare back the excesses and power plays that occurred during the 12 years of Republican control under Newt Gingrich, Dennis Hastert and Tom DeLay.

“We will restructure the House,” said Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). “We will empower the public. We will have more open debate.”

We heard the same from the GOP in 1994 and the Democrats in 2006.

Yet Boehner would be different from the past three speakers in that he is a former chairman — he held the Education and Workforce Committee gavel for five years — so he would come to the speaker’s office with a more sympathetic view of the traditional authority of committee chairmen.

Several factors are pressing to make the House more open. Committee leaders and rank-and-file members in both parties have been chafing under the leadership dominance that increasingly has ruled the House since Democrats lost their majority in 1994. That pressure will be reinforced by a rambunctious Republican freshman class that could exceed 60 members if the GOP takes control.

For a preview of the freshman class:

American Crossroads as Player and Boogeyman

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:39:00 +0000

Hotline On Call reports:

The conservative Crossroads GPS is up with a new issue ad on Tuesday that seeks to hang Pres. Obama and health care reform around the neck of KY SEN candidate Jack Conway (D).

The ad represents the first time American Crossroads has directly tied Obama to a Dem candidate in an ad -- and it's one of the few anywhere that prominently highlights health care. The ad shows Conway and Obama riding in a car together.

"Obamacare is the wrong way for Kentucky," the ad's narrator says. "And Jack Conway is going the wrong way too."

The website includes links for letters to Conway and letters to the editor.

The Boston Globe reports:

Looking to goose campaign donations from Democrats, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry in a new fund-raising email invokes the name of Karl Rove, the former White House political strategist for President George W. Bush and a founder of a new political advocacy group, American Crossroads.

In his letter, Kerry warns that Rove’s “smear factory” has recent spent $500,000 on TV ads in key US Senate races.

“Rove and a group of secret donors are building a $50 million war chest to finance what they call - get this! – ‘hard-hitting issue advocacy.’ ” Kerry writes. “That sounds like a fancy way of saying they'll be doing to good people like [Democratic US Senators] Russ Feingold and Barbara Boxer what they did to me in 2004: lie, smear, distort, and deceive. Remember those ads? I sure do - and now it's my friends who are in the crosshairs.”

An Elephant's Year?

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 20:19:00 +0000

Gallup reports:

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

These results are based on aggregated data from registered voters surveyed Aug. 23-29 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. This marks the fifth week in a row in which Republicans have held an advantage over Democrats -- one that has ranged between 3 and 10 points.

The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup's history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994. Elections in both of these years resulted in significant Republican gains in House seats.

Al Hunt writes at Bloomberg:

Forget conventional wisdom: Republicans have a real shot at taking control of the Senate, as well as the House, in the U.S. midterm elections.

“This is going to be a massive election like 1974, except it will happen to the Democrats this time,” says Bill McInturff, a leading Republican pollster, alluding to the Democratic landslide more than three-and-a-half decades ago. “The Senate is in play.”

The economy is killing Democrats even in states doing comparatively well. The economic stimulus and bailout of the auto companies -- successes in the eyes of most detached analysts -- are unpopular.

Most unpopular was the Wall Street rescue, whatever disaster it may have averted.

Most Democratic candidates voted for these measures, a reason the party may lose 10 seats and control of the Senate.

Filling Gaps in the White House Website, Part 48

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 00:06:00 +0000

In an interview with Brian Williams of NBC, the president spoke of the economy:

Well, look, we — we anticipated that the recovery was slowing. The economy is still growing, but it's not growing as fast as it needs to. I've got things right now in — before Congress that we should move immediately. And I've said so before I went on vacation, and I'll keep on saying when I — now that I'm back. We should be passing legislation that helps small businesses get credit, that eliminates capital gains taxes so that they have more incentive to invest right now.

There are a whole host of measures we could take, no single element of which is a magic bullet but cumulatively can start continuing to build momentum for the recovery. But look, the — this was the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and the worst recession since the Great Depression. And so, what we know is that we are going to have to slowly, steadily build confidence. Push more investment out there. Target areas like clean energy that we know are going to be be growth areas in the future.

Look at how we're doing our infrastructure, so that we can maximize the amount of jobs that are created. So, there — there are a range of steps that I hope we can get bipartisan support for. But right now, we're still — we're in the season, political season, which means that for the next two months there's going to be be constantly a contest in the minds of Members of Congress. And my Republican friends in Congress, between doing what the country needs and what they think may be advantageous in the — in terms of short term politics.

The president had a slightly different emphasis in June, when he discussed an employment report:

And this progress is reflected in the monthly jobs reports that we get each month. We received one today. In May, the economy added 431,000 jobs. (Applause.) Now, this is the fifth month in a row that we’ve seen job gains. And while we recognize that our recovery is still in its early stages and that there are going to be ups and downs in the months ahead -- things never go completely in a smooth line -- this report is a sign that our economy is getting stronger by the day.

Outsiderism 2010

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Sun, 29 Aug 2010 19:44:00 +0000

In The New York Times, Marc Ambinder writes of political outsiders and their backers:

In earlier times, such voices, on the right and the left, would have been relegated to the heckler’s gallery. But Twitter, Facebook and Google empower them to raise money, attract followers, grab attention and influence the course of political events. Unlike parties, which often recruit candidates who would appeal to the average voter in a general election, these activists care only about nominating the person who accurately represents their own views and frustrations.

That’s not all: true outsider candidates can use those same technologies and strategies to keep their coffers full, become known to voters and generate their own opportunities (and good luck). Not getting the nod from party power brokers can become the foundation on which to build an entire campaign. In turn, political parties, with their promises of millions of dollars and high-priced consulting support from Alexandria, Va., come off as imperious, cautious and out of touch.

Democrats, too, have had their share of bickering. Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter — galvanized by the state’s labor unions — challenged Senator Blanche Lincoln; she barely won the June runoff. In Colorado, when Senator Michael Bennet was not responsive enough to party liberals, the state’s former House speaker Andrew Romanoff decided to challenge him. Mr. Romanoff sold his house to pay for his campaign and might have won the Aug. 10 vote were it not for strategic mistakes he made late in the campaign.

In May in Pennsylvania, Representative Joe Sestak would not let the Democratic establishment coronate Senator Arlen Specter — who had just been persuaded to switch parties by the White House after conservatives made it impossible for him to win the Republican primary. These anti-party forces are not likely to wane.

In the same paper, Carl Hulse likens today's outsiders to the Senate GOP class of 1980:

Swept into office by the landslide victory of Ronald Reagan were a number of conservatives, including Jeremiah A. Denton Jr. of Alabama, Mack Mattingly of Georgia, Paula Hawkins of Florida, Steve Symms of Idaho and several others whose notion of the role of government and Congress was markedly different from those they succeeded.

They were labeled the “accidental senators,” candidates who won only by virtue of an extraordinary political environment. The culture of the Senate — and party control — changed overnight.

“It was a very weird time,” recalled Senator Patrick J. Leahy, a Vermont Democrat who narrowly won a second term that year. “A lot of those people had no idea what they were doing.”

While party strategists and analysts say Republicans still face a steep climb to gain the 10 seats needed to flip control of the Senate, polls and circumstances in contests around the country suggest it is not inconceivable that Republicans could seize the majority if crucial races uniformly break their way on Nov. 2.

If they do, it is a certainty that the new membership of the Senate would include sharply conservative Republicans with a deep skepticism of government and a determination to change Washington.

GOP Factionalism

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Sun, 29 Aug 2010 18:16:00 +0000

Dan Balz notes internal GOP divisions:

It has long been said that any political coalition large enough to aspire to majority status is an organization of factions, conflict and contradictions. That description defines the Republican Party as it looks toward the November elections and beyond.

This was a week in which the party's strengths and weaknesses competed for attention. Turnout in Tuesday's primaries showed Republicans energized and enthusiastic, far more so than the Democrats. If anything, Democrats are more pessimistic about their prospects in November than they were two months ago.

But the elections last week in Florida and Alaska also pointed to ideological differences and personal enmities that have played out in Republican primary battles all year and that threaten to leave scars and fissures within the party that will have to be dealt with later. Republicans have seen more turmoil in their ranks this year than Democrats have, a sign of both robustness within the coalition and unresolved debates about the party's direction.

On another front, House Republican leader John A. Boehner (Ohio) went to his home state and made his first attempt at offering a GOP agenda for the fall campaigns, an essential - and until now, largely missing - element of the party's message.

But Boehner's speech left many questions unanswered about what his party would do if Republicans win a majority of seats in November. How radically would they attack government spending? How bold would they be in dealing with entitlements, beyond the grown-up conversation that Boehner promises? How much effort would they make to work with President Obama compared with the past two years?

The party's agenda is not the only question mark hanging over Republicans. The party's leadership remains in question. Who now truly drives the party: the establishment or the grass roots? There is considerable evidence that power has shifted to the activists and that the Washington establishment is still scrambling to catch up.

At CNN, Julian Zelizer sees four main factions:

Economic conservatives
Social conservatives;
Libertarians;
National-security conservatives

He says that Reagan united the various GOP factions in the 1980s. Although the Gipper did escape a primary challenge in 1984, Zelizer overlooks the intense infighting that characterized GOP politics during this period. The president faced strong House GOP opposition over the 1982 and 1985 tax bills, for instance. Zelizer also says: "None of the main Republican contenders for 2012 -- Haley Barbour, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney or any others -- has demonstrated that he or she would be able to build a coalition from these factions." He forgets Barbour's RNC chairmanship, when he indeed built good relations with all party factions.

CA: Fiorina to the Right

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Sun, 29 Aug 2010 16:16:00 +0000

Dan Morain writes at The Sacramento Bee:

Imagine this: In environmentally sensitive California, Carly Fiorina, hoping to be this state's next U.S. senator, supports offshore oil drilling and nuclear power, and hates the law that promises to reduce greenhouse gases.

Fiorina publicly says she'd vote to overturn Roe v. Wade if given the opportunity, this in a state where an anti-abortion rights candidate at the top of the ticket has not won since the 1980s.

For good measure, she proudly supports the Second Amendment, opposes same-sex marriage and looks to the free market libertarian Cato Institute for counsel on the economy.

What gives? Unlike so many candidates before her, Fiorina clings to her stands on social issues. It endears her to Republican stalwarts. But in a state where there are 2.3 million more Democrats than Republicans, she may be making a fatal error. Then again, perhaps it's all part of a much bigger plan, beyond the U.S. Senate.... If she were to win in November, Fiorina immediately would move onto the list of vice presidential candidates. Given the conservative social views of the GOP base, no Republican presidential nominee would consider a running mate who has equivocated matters such as abortion rights.

American Crossroads GOTV

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Sat, 28 Aug 2010 14:05:00 +0000

A press release from American Crossroads:

American Crossroads, the new conservative political action organization, today announced plans to spend more than $10 million on an extensive get-out-the-vote (GOTV) plan called “MOVERS” – Mobilizing Our Voters to End Reckless Spending. The MOVERS program will be augmented by GOTV activities in these and other states by other independent groups that are working with American Crossroads.

In each of the eight target states, American Crossroads will use enhanced voter files and data on absentee ballot and early voting patterns to deliver absentee ballot mailers with chase calls, early voting notifications by mail and phone calls, and a 72-hour mail and phone call blitz prior to Election Day. Target universes for the program include high, medium and low propensity Republican voters, as well as high propensity independent voters.

“We have an unprecedented opportunity to restore balance and fiscal responsibility to Washington this fall,” said Steven Law, president and CEO of American Crossroads. “To do that, American Crossroads will conduct an intensive turnout effort and work closely with other independent partners on mobilizing our voters to end reckless spending.”

Targeted voters in Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire and Washington State will receive multiple contacts and follow-ups through the American Crossroads “MOVERS” GOTV plan.

Politico calls it "outsourcing the 72-Hour Plan."

USA Today reports on the Democratic reaction:

Democrats are using a burst of recent ad spending by American Crossroads and an affiliated group to raise money for the party's Senate candidates.

In an e-mail sent to supporters today, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's Executive Director J.B. Poersch called on rank-and-file Democrats to donate to counteract the group's spending.

Here's an excerpt:

Feel that wind blowing? That's Bush strategist Karl Rove breathing down our necks.

In the past 72 hours, his shady American Crossroads group launched an on-air assault on Barbara Boxer and Russ Feingold. Rove was already hitting Harry Reid and Robin Carnahan. And that's just one of a slew of corporate-funded GOP front groups.

In six years at the DSCC, I've NEVER seen anything like this. Republicans are coming after us earlier and harder than ever to win back the majority.

The Economic and Political Climate

noreply@blogger.com (John J. Pitney, Jr.) — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 15:20:00 +0000

The Los Angeles Times reports:

The Commerce Department on Friday downgraded the nation's economic growth in the second quarter, providing the most important evidence yet that the recovery has stalled.

The anemic annualized growth rate of 1.6% was down from last month's estimate of 2.4%. The drop was slightly less than many economists had predicted, but the report still put an exclamation point on a week of bad economic news that has raised fears the nation could plunge into another recession.

CBS reports:

Americans are more pessimistic about the country's economy than they were last month, a new CBS News poll reveals.

Thirty-four percent now say the economy is getting worse, up from 26 percent last month. Only 20 percent now say the economy is getting better, according to the poll, conducted Aug. 20 - 24. The last time views were this pessimistic was April of 2009.

Additionally, Americans' overall rating of the economy has been stagnant this summer. Over eight in 10 say the economy is in bad shape, and that negativity hasn't budged. Just 17 percent of Americans describe the nation's economy as being in good shape.

The Washington Examiner reports:

With just weeks left in a summer that showed far less economic recovery than Democrats had hoped for, the party is bracing for the prospect of a GOP-controlled House of Representatives next year, while Republicans set their sights on as many as 80 seats they believe will be vulnerable in November.

"I've been thinking for months the House is lost," one top Democratic strategist told The Washington Examiner. "I don't even think it's going to be close."

Politico reports:

In conversations with more than two dozen party insiders, most of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly about the state of play, Democrats in and out of Washington say they are increasingly alarmed about the economic and polling data they have seen in recent weeks.
They no longer believe the jobs and housing markets will recover — or that anything resembling the White House’s promise of a “recovery summer” is under way. They are even more concerned by indications that House Democrats once considered safe — such as Rep. Betty Sutton, who occupies an Ohio seat that President Barack Obama won with 57 percent of the vote in 2008 — are in real trouble.

In two close races, endangered Democrats are even running ads touting how they oppose their leadership

Michael Barone writes:

More good news for Republicans and bad news for Democrats keeps flooding in. Consider this morning’s polls reported in realclearpolitics.com. Mason-Dixon, polling for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, has Harry Reid up over Sherron Angle by only 45%-44%–a statistical tie. The mainstream meme has been that Angle is unelectable. This poll refutes that. She’s certainly not a sure winner, but she’s not a sure loser either. And Harry Reid, who has been on statewide ballots in Nevada going back to 1970, when he was elected lieutenant governor, is stuck under 50%.