Democrats Cool on Israel

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. 

Andrew Solender and Justin Green at Axios:

Zoom in: Every Senate Democrat who's eyeing a 2028 presidential run voted against arms sales to Israel in votes earlier this week.40 Senate Dems voted on a resolution to block arms sales to Israel, up from just 15 on a similar vote last April. Netanyahu is "destroying the bipartisan nature in terms of support for Israel," Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) told Punchbowl News.

Over in the House, some Democrats are turning against defensive support, including funding for Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system.That was "seen as insanely fringe four years ago," Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) told Axios. But multiple Democrats who voted for Iron Dome in 2021 told Axios they're done providing financial aid.The big picture: Older Republicans and white Evangelicals are the last groups to hold majority favorable views of Israel, according to recent Pew polling. For every other group, Israel's favorability has collapsed since 2022.

⬇️ Down 31 percentage points among older Democrats (ages 50+).
⬇️ Down 22 percentage points among both younger Republicans/GOP leaners and younger Dems/Dem leaners.
⬇️ Down 14 percentage points among Protestants, 23 among Catholics and 20 among the religiously unaffiliated.
⬇️ Even white Evangelical support, which was at 80% in 2022, has slid by 15 points.

Anti-Newsom Oppo Starts

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.  We are already in the very early stages of the 2028 campaign.

 Alex Thompson and Holly Otterbein at Axios:

Gavin Newsom's Democratic rivals are plotting how to take down the early 2028 frontrunner, with a heavy emphasis on how unpopular his left-leaning views are outside deep-blue California.

Driving the news: Our conversations with more than 20 Democratic operatives, including several working for 2028 hopefuls, reveal that they see the California governor as the guy to beat — and a guy with a lot of personal baggage that's exploitable for a presidential primary.

The consensus themes to expect in attacks on Newsom:The "too liberal, coastal elite" argument. If primary voters prioritize electability, Newsom — a former San Francisco mayor — could be seen as a risky choice, the operatives say.

Newsom has defended providing health care for undocumented immigrants because he supports universal health care — a mainstream position in the 2020 Democratic primary some Democrats have since abandoned.

Affordability, housing and homelessness remain big problems in California, despite Newsom initiatives as mayor and governor.

The wealthy Getty family has been a key backer of Newsom's political and business career, leading some of his foes in California to call him a slick "Davos Democrat."
...

Zoom in: Some of Newsom's potential rivals and other Democratic leaders have begun going public with attacks.California Rep. Ro Khanna, referring to Newsom's former chief of staff recently being charged with corruption, said the aide's indictment is a "toxic stain" on the state.

YouTube and 2028

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.  The 2028 campaign is starting already.

Adam Wren at Politico:

NOW STREAMING: The 2028 presidential primaries are already unfolding on YouTube.

Amid the rapid decline of cable news, potential candidates and other elected officials are locked in a digital arms race to draw subscribers, boost their reach and build what amounts to their own broadcast networks.

• Potential candidates like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) are closing in on audiences that rival or surpass total cable primetime viewers for individual networks.
• Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley is racking up millions of views.
• Vivek Ramaswamy, the former 2024 GOP presidential candidate who is running for Ohio governor, dwarfs any other Republican but President Donald Trump on YouTube with more than 813,000 subscribers.
• Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s channel started the year with just 28,000 subscribers, and now has 177,000, having generated nearly 10 million views and accumulated 500,000 hours of viewing time so far this year, according to a spokesperson.
• Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear saw a 448 percent increase in views from last year to this year, a spokesperson tells POLITICO.

Beshear

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The 2028 campaign is just starting.

Hannah Knowles at WP:

PAWLEYS ISLAND, S.C.Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear had plenty to say about the culture wars that have divided his party as he laid groundwork here this week for a possible 2028 presidential run.

As some prominent Democrats warn that the party has gone too far left on trans rights, the governor from the deep-red South quoted scripture to explain why he vetoed “every single piece of anti-LGBTQ+ legislation” that GOP state lawmakers sent to his desk. As some institutions back off racial justice initiatives that have faced a fierce backlash and that Republicans call “woke,” Beshear said he was proud to make Juneteenth an executive branch holiday and remove a statue of Confederate president Jefferson Davis from the Kentucky Capitol.

“I’m a proud pro-choice governor, I’m a proud pro-LGBTQ+ governor, and I’m a proud pro-diversity governor,” Beshear said at his final stop, a dinner for Democrats in conservative Georgetown County. “Now some people would tell you that a Democrat can’t win in a state like mine or yours with that resume. Yet here I am.”

Beshear occupies a singular position in the early 2028 Democratic sweepstakes as a two-term governor in a state President Donald Trump won by 30 points who is pitching himself as a blueprint for the party to start winning again. As Democrats fight over whether they paid a price for moving too far left on some social issues, Beshear is using his red-state experience to argue the party need not run away from those topics.

Democratic Splits

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun.  It is a fight between two very old men.

After Biden's bad debate performance last week, there has been off-the-record talk about replacing him on the Democratic ticket.  Some Democrats have gone on the record.

Jonathan Martin at Politico reports on D governors rallying behind Biden:

Most congressional Democrats simply see no path to take back the House and hold their Senate majority if they are led by a president who large majorities of the country, as new polls indicate, believe is too old for the job.

Yet by showing up at the White House and then, more significantly, offering public displays of support, the governors only encouraged a standard bearer many lawmakers feel is doomed — and will doom them. Most House Democrats are outrunning Biden in their internal surveys, I’m told by people familiar with the results. But they know they can’t overcome his drag if he’s losing their seats by 15 points rather than mid-single digits. “Hence the terror,” as one operative working on congressional Democratic races explained.

Even more infuriating to Democrats on Capitol Hill is the personal politics they sniff in the governors’ declarations of support. Few of the governors have to run for reelection this year, but more than a handful of them are eager to seek the presidency in 2028. And there’s no path for any of them then if Vice President Kamala Harris by then is President Harris seeking reelection. Moreover, if she runs a credible, last-minute race and loses narrowly this year to former President Donald Trump, it still may be difficult to deny her the nomination in four years.

“Sink Kamala so she’s not the nominee in both ’24 and ’28,” as one House Democrat texted upon hearing of the governors rallying to Biden.

Kenneth P. Vogel, Theodore Schleifer, and Lauren Hirsch at NYT:

After several days of quiet griping and hoping that President Biden would abandon his re-election campaign on his own, many wealthy Democratic donors are trying to take matters into their own hands.

Wielding their fortunes as both carrot and stick, donors have undertaken a number of initiatives to pressure Mr. Biden to step down from the top of the ticket and help lay the groundwork for an alternate candidate.

The efforts — some coordinated, some conflicting and others still nascent — expose a remarkable and growing rift between the party’s contributor class and its standard-bearer that could have an impact on down-ballot races, whether or not the donors influence Mr. Biden’s decision.

The president on Wednesday reaffirmed his commitment to stay in the race amid criticism of his weak debate performance last week. But that has not placated donors or strategists who worry that he cannot win in November.

A group of them is working to raise as much as $100 million for a sort of escrow fund, called the Next Generation PAC, that would be used to support a replacement candidate. If Mr. Biden does not step aside, the money could be used to help down-ballot candidates, according to people close to the effort.

Supporters of potential replacements like Vice President Kamala Harris are jockeying to position their preferred successor. Other donors are threatening to withhold contributions not only from Mr. Biden but also from other Democratic groups unless Mr. Biden bows out.

There is a separate movement to steer money to candidates for lower offices. And financial supporters are urging elected officials at all levels to publicly pressure Mr. Biden to withdraw, signaling support for those who follow through. Some major donors like Reed Hastings have gone public with calls for Mr. Biden to stand down.