CA: Air War, Not Ground War

According to census estimates, California has 37 million people, about 50 percent more than the next-largest state (Texas, with 25 million). A pair of stories in the Los Angeles Times suggest that California's sheer immensity means that the air war matters more than the ground war.

In the gubernatorial race, it's all Meg and Steve, all the time.

"It's crazy out there," said Sheri Sadler, a Democratic political media buyer, who said lower-tier candidates are having difficulty finding airtime to purchase. Television stations are turning away their regular clients because of the amount of money that Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman are pouring into television, she said.

"They are literally buying anything they can get their hands on, every spot that's available to them, everything that opens up," Sadler said, and Whitman and Poizner's camps haven't stopped even now: "They're calling every single day."

Whitman has spent $47 million on television and radio ads, while Poizner has spent nearly $18 million in his ad campaign, which began months after Whitman's. Californians have been unable to avoid the deluge — according to a new Los Angeles Times/USC poll, 77% of voters surveyed from May 19 to 26 had seen a political advertisement recently. Of those voters, 80% had seen a Whitman ad and 71% had viewed a Poizner ad.

In the Senate race, tea party support for Chuck DeVore can only do him limited good.

Dawn Wildman, California coordinator for the Tea Party Patriots, an umbrella group, said she constantly hears about independent efforts for DeVore — including precinct walking, sign rallies and voter-to-voter calls — in her weekly conference calls with organizers of the 160 Patriots groups.

"One of the few races that I've seen absolute consensus on has actually been the Chuck DeVore race," she said. But she admits that it is more difficult to marshal grass-root forces in California than in a smaller state like Kentucky.

"Just from the distance perspective, it truly is like herding cats in California," she said.

CA: Poll on Arizona Immigration Law

Even in California, supporters of the Arizona immigration law outnumber opponents among registered voters. The Los Angeles Times reports:

Overall, 50% of registered voters surveyed said they support the law, which compels police to check the immigration status of those they suspect are in the country illegally, while 43% oppose it. That level of support is lower than polls have indicated nationwide.

But attitudes among the state's voters are not uniform. Strong majorities of white voters and those over 50 support the Arizona law, while Latinos and those under 30 are heavily opposed.

Click here for the full results. The numbers do not changewhen respondents hear arguments on both sides:

Q.51 This law requires police who stop a person to question that person's immigration status if there is "reasonable suspicion" that he or she is in the United States illegally and gives police the power to question anyone they suspect of being in the country illegally. It requires people to produce documents verifying their status if asked, and allows officers to detain anyone who cannot do so. Do you favor or oppose this new law?

Total

Strongly favor.......................................................................41

Not so strongly favor.............................................................8

Not so strongly oppose..........................................................7

Strongly oppose...................................................................36

(Don't know)...........................................................................6

(Refused).................................................................................1

Total favor............................................................................50

Total oppose.........................................................................43

Favor - Oppose......................................................................7

Q.52 Now let me read you some statements that supporters and opponents of the law may make.

Opponents of this law say that we need to do something to address immigration, but this law goes too far and is not consistent with our American values. This law could legitimize racial profiling and encourage some police officers to stop people they suspect of being here illegally just by looking at them - even if they have no evidence whatsoever.

Supporters of the law say that with as many as 15 million illegal immigrants in this country, we need to address immigration now. This law allows police officers to crack down on those violating the law, will reduce the number of illegal immigrants here, deter people from crossing the border illegally, reduce crime, and stop the flow of drugs into our country.

After hearing those two statements, do you favor or oppose this law?

Total

Strongly favor.......................................................................42

Not so strongly favor.............................................................8

Not so strongly oppose.........................................................8

Strongly oppose....................................................................35

(Don't know)..........................................................................5

(Refused)................................................................................1

Total favor............................................................................50

Total oppose.........................................................................43

Favor - Oppose......................................................................7

CA: The Non-Candidates

The Los Angeles Times quotes Dan Schnur:

"The single most important things that happened in California politics this year were the decisions of Gavin Newsom and Antonio Villaraigosa not to run for governor," said Schnur. "Had Brown faced a credible primary opponent, he'd be facing a scramble back to the political center the same way Whitman would be. Because he's had the field to himself, he's been able to set up shop on the 50-yard line."

There, Brown has been emphasizing stances broadly popular in the general election, if not necessarily in a Democratic primary: among them, opposing any tax hikes without explicit permission from voters and opposing a measure to legalize marijuana. Both issues help knock down lingering images of Brown as a conventional liberal.

Social Media and House Republican Strategy

Kathleen Parker writes:

For Boehner, being called the "Party of No" isn't a regrettable invective. It is a strategy aimed at highlighting the contrast between those running things and those who want to run things. That deafening silence you hear from Republicans about the gulf oil spill? All the better for Americans to hear the glubglubglub of Democrats and the administration going down the drain.

Boehner & Co. are busy, meanwhile, conducting a massive digital listening tour via the GOP's new "America Speaking Out" Web site, where voters can submit and vote on ideas. It's user-friendly to a fault, with undertones of "Mister Rogers' Neighborhood," such that Dick, Jane and even Spot can play.

YouCut, unveiled by Rep. Eric Cantor this month, where Americans can vote on spending cuts. In one video, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) announces the winner: pay raises for Congress and federal employees (except military personnel).

CA: The Kaus Campaign

Blogger Mickey Kaus is running a longshot campaign against incumbent Barbara Boxer for the Democratic Senate nomination in California. The Los Angeles Times reports:

Earlier this week, while Boxer was raising some serious cash with President Obama at the Fairmont Hotel in San Francisco, Kaus invited her to debate him down the street at a Holiday Inn on Van Ness Avenue. “All she had to do was show up and have at it,” Kaus said. She did not. So someone stuck an empty cardboard box on a lectern as her stand-in. “The box was on the defensive the entire debate,” Kaus wrote on his campaign blog.

“At one point, I called her ma’am,” Kaus told us. Then he played the now-famous audio clip of Boxer objecting to a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers brigadier general addressing her as “ma’am” last year. (“You know, do me a favor,” a prickly Boxer interjected. “Could you say ‘senator’ instead of ma’am?”)

(Carly Fiorina, one of the trio of Republican candidates vying to face Boxer in November, gets lots of mileage from that incident of apparent tone-deafness on Boxer’s part.)

But Kaus played it strictly for laughs. “I don’t have any personal objection to Boxer,” he said. “She reminds me of all the women I’ve tried to date -- sharp, smart, short and a little insecure.”

Hispanic Party Identification Trends

MSNBC First Read reports:

Dropping like a rock: It didn't use to be this way. In 2004, George W. Bush, the former governor of Texas, won some 40% of the Latino vote. But in 2006, that percentage for Republicans dropped to 30%, and it was 31% in '08. And check out these party identification averages among Latinos that our Hart (D)/McInturff (R) pollsters put together from our past NBC/WSJ polls; this chart puts together the YEARLY average of all Hispanics surveyed for each year (approximately 900 respondents are included in each yearly sample):

-- In 2004, Dems held a 22-point edge in party identification among Latinos (49%-27%)
-- In 2005, it was 24 points (48%-24%)
-- In 2006, it was 26 points (50%-22%)
-- In 2007, it was 30 points (52%-22%)
-- In 2008, it was 35 points (57%-22%)
-- In 2009, it was 31 points (50%-19%)

And so far in 2010, it has been 36 points (58%-22%).

Obama Echoes Carter

During his press conference, President Obama brought a personal dimension to the Gulf oil spill: "When I woke up this morning, and I'm shaving, Malia knocks on my bathroom door and peeks in her head and says, `Did you plug the hole yet, Daddy?'"

In his 1980 debate with Ronald Reagan, President Carter made a similar reference to his 13-year-old daughter: "I think, to close out this discussion, it would be better to put into perspective what we're talking about. I had a discussion with my daughter, Amy, the other day, before I came here, to ask her what the most important issue was. She said she thought nuclear weaponry - and the control of nuclear arms."