Tea Party Priorities

Gallup reports:

Self-described Tea Party supporters differ from those neutral or opposed to the movement on the issues they perceive as threats to the future of the United States, most notably federal government debt and the size and power of the federal government. They are essentially indistinguishable from those who do not support the Tea Party in their perceptions of unemployment and racial discrimination as future threats to the country.

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Thirty percent of Americans identify as Tea Party supporters, 28% are opponents, and 36% are neutral to the movement, according to combined data from three USA Today/Gallup polls conducted in March, May, and June 2010.

The Tea Party movement has been the focus of media attention during the past year, and has had some success in getting its preferred candidates nominated or elected in the 2009-2010 election cycle. However, as Gallup has pointed out, those who describe themselves as Tea Party supporters are in many ways indistinguishable from, and largely a subset of, Republican identifiers more generally.

Macro and Micro

At Politico, Jonathan Martin writes:

The dust-up this week between President Barack Obama and House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), ostensibly about Wall Street regulation, revealed more about the two parties’ midterm campaign strategies than anything else.

With polls showing voters deeply concerned about the economy and government spending and souring on Democrats, Obama and his party are seizing on gaffe after GOP gaffe, intent on making the election anything but a referendum on the majority.

That means an obsessive, hour-by-hour focus on a micro-message—grasping every opportunity to shift attention away from their unpopular or tepidly-supported policies and toward anything that smacks of Republican extremism.

For Republicans, the strategy is the opposite—a macro-approach in which they brush off the excesses of individual candidates or isolated blunders by reiterating a big-picture mantra that Americans are sick of the spending and job losses that haven’t taken place on the majority party’s watch.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39355.html#ixzz0sijbGWQK

So far, macro is beating micro. Gallup reports:

By an average 10 percentage-point margin since March, 45% to 35%, independent registered voters have consistently preferred the Republican to the Democrat when asked which congressional candidate they would vote for in their district. Independents' preference for Republicans has been generally consistent over this time, with the gap in favor of Republicans increasing slightly since March, from 8 to 12 points.

Steele on Afghanistan

Michael Steele's comments on Afghanistan have drawn fierce criticism from his own side. William Kristol writes:

Your tenure has of course been marked by gaffes and embarrassments, but I for one have never paid much attention to them, and have never thought they would matter much to the success of the causes and principles we share. But now you have said, about the war in Afghanistan, speaking as RNC chairman at an RNC event, "Keep in mind again, federal candidates, this was a war of Obama's choosing. This was not something that the United States had actively prosecuted or wanted to engage in." And, "if [Obama] is such a student of history, has he not understood that you know that's the one thing you don't do, is engage in a land war in Afghanistan?"

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There are, of course, those who think we should pull out of Afghanistan, and they’re certainly entitled to make their case. But one of them shouldn't be the chairman of the Republican party

Steele comments call to mind what President Eisenhower said of Senator William Knowland: "In his case, there seems to be no final answer to the question, `How stupid can you get?""

Grim Outlook for Democrats

Democrats are trying to wear their game face, as Dan Balz reports in The Washington Post:

"I think the prospect of a Republican takeover -- while not likely, but plausible -- will be very much part of the dynamic in October, and I think that will help us with turnout and some of this enthusiasm gap," said David Plouffe, who was Obama's campaign manager two years ago and is helping to oversee Democratic efforts this fall. Still, he put all Democrats on notice, saying: "We'd better act as a party as if the House and the Senate and every major governor's race is at stake and in danger, because they could be."

Plouffe and other Democratic strategists say Obama will play an important role in making the case that the Republican Party is one of obstruction and indifference. But they think the outcome in November will depend as much on the skill of candidates in mobilizing potential supporters who are now disinclined to vote.

This morning's economic news, however, will overwhelm any campaign messaging. From CNBC:

The US economy lost 125,000 jobs in June, more than economists had forecast, as thousands of temporary census jobs ended and private hiring grew less than expected.

And though the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 9.5% from 9.7%, the lowest in a year, it was largely due to more people dropping out of the labor force.

The report was the latest sign that the economic recovery may be faltering.

Private hiring rose 83,000 after increasing only 33,000 the prior month, the Labor Department said. But nonfarm payrolls, dropped 125,000—the largest decline since October—as census jobs fell 225,000.

"Overall what this does is it reinforces the market's view that the U.S. recovery is losing steam,'' said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of trading at Tempus Consulting in Washington.

CA: E-Meg's E-Campaign

Ken McLaughlin reports at The San Jose Mercury News:

The telephone rings and Meg Whitman, the Republican candidate for governor, is greeting you by your first name. You flip on the TV, and there she is again on a new kind of interactive ad that lets you order a free Meg 2010 bumper sticker with the push of a few buttons on your remote control.

Surf on over to Whitman's flashy website and, with the click of your mouse, voilà, it's "Meg 2010: Una Nueva California" — the whole site is translated into Spanish. Click again and it's in Chinese.

The former eBay CEO's carpet-bombing of the airwaves generated the most political buzz during her $80 million march to victory over Steve Poizner in the GOP primary. But behind the scenes, her campaign served as a laboratory for new technology that will be unleashed against her Democratic rival, Jerry Brown, in the months leading up to the Nov. 2 election.

A glimpse into Whitman's tech spending is startling: The latest campaign expenditure reports show she had spent $2.7 million through May 22 on website development and information technology alone — seven times more than Brown spent on his entire campaign.

The Outstretched Hand and the Clenched Fist

Roll Call reports:

The president said his party has “already tried the other side’s ideas” and that Democrats “already know where their theories led us. … We can return to the failed economic policies of the past, or we can keep building a stronger future.”

House Republicans whom the White House has previously looked to for bipartisan help say comments like these are the reason Obama’s vows to work together fall on deaf ears on the Hill.

“A day doesn’t go by where we don’t hear one thing and see another. The outstretched hand by the left with the clenched clock across the face by the right. … It just seems to be their method of doing things,” Budget ranking member Paul Ryan said.

The Wisconsin lawmaker, whom Obama has publicly praised for his willingness to work across party lines, said the president’s words never translated into a White House effort to work together behind the scenes.

“He would say nice things about me publicly, but there was never actual outreach,” Ryan said. “I used to think there was going to be follow-up, but now I just accept it hasn’t happened. … We have yet to see any action that suggests he’s sincere about compromise.”

American Crossroads Fundraising Picks Up

Politico reports:

A new political group conceived by veteran GOP operatives Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie and launched to much fanfare earlier this year had its first big fundraising month in June, raising millions and also spawning a new partner outfit.

American Crossroads, a conservative group created in March to air ads boosting Republicans, combined with a newer offshoot called American Crossroads GPS to pull in nearly $8.5 million in June, according to American Crossroads president Steven Law.

“For us it’s a down payment on what we expect to do in the months ahead, and we’re going to continue to be just as aggressive in July,” said Law, who found himself on the defensive a bit after POLITICO revealed that American Crossroads raised just $200 in May.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0610/39264.html#ixzz0sR20qWs1