Perry Scores on CBS, Takes a Hit on NBC

In the CBS/National Journal debate on foreign policy, Gingrich was both tough and fluent, Romney was solid, Cain was vague, and Perry was better-than-expected. CBS reports:

By all measures, Perry exceeded expectations. He touted his military service and spoke passionately on counter-terrorism in way that would appeal to foreign policy hawks. And perhaps even more importantly, his performance was free of the gaffes that he's become known for in debates.

He may have walked into a trap, however, when he answered a follow-up question regarding his proposal to "start at zero" when it comes to foreign aid. When asked via question about whether that policy would apply to Israel, Perry said "yes," although he quickly confirmed his belief that Israel is a critical ally. The response could still prove risky for a Republican candidate when the GOP base so intensely supports Israel. Furthermore, commentators pointed out the U.S. has a 10-year agreement to provide Israel with about $30 billion for security assistance.

That's the good news for Perry. The bad news is that Saturday Night Live skewered his Wednesday brain freeze a few hours after the Saturday debate, and probably had a bigger influence on voter perceptions.

Newt's Baggage as Ironic Asset

Newt's rise will mean greater scrutiny of his record. At The New York Times, Trip Gabriel writes:

As a higher level of scrutiny finds Mr. Gingrich in a top-tier role, he does have an advantage over some other candidates: his foibles are pretty well known. “Everyone understands he’s got baggage, and they’ve factored that in to their support for him,” said Fergus Cullen, a former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party.

The collapse of his campaign happened so swiftly earlier this year that Mr. Gingrich bypassed the extensive vetting that most presidential candidates face by this point in the nominating contest. His public record has been well examined from Congress, but his intricate collection of businesses, which are informally known as Newt Inc., have not been deeply studied in this campaign. An adviser said that Mr. Gingrich was under no illusions that his entire history would be open to a reinspection if Republicans decide to give his candidacy a second look.

In interviews, he has a ready response to questions about his past, which also include being fined $300,000 for an ethics violation while speaker of the House in 1997. “Somebody’s going to end up doing this; the person’s going to be human,” Mr. Gingrich said.

Cable System Pulls Crossroads GPS Ad

Michael McAuliff writes at The Huffington Post about an anti-Tester ad from Crossroads GPS:

An ad by Karl Rove-backed Crossroads GPS was yanked from rotation on a Montana cable show because it made claims that the network deemed false [sic: it is a small cable system, not a network]

Recently a number of ads by the well-funded conservative outfit have been declared misleading and false, but the spot targeting Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is apparently the first pulled from the air. The Associated Press reported that other outlets are still running the ad.

In it, Tester is accused of supporting an Environmental Protection Agency rule -- a rule that was never in fact proposed -- to regulate farm dust. But the vote that the ad cites actually had nothing to do with dust or the EPA; it was a procedural vote on a measure aimed at cracking down on China for manipulating currency.

...

UPDATE: Friday 7:17 p.m. and 8:50 p.m. -- Nate Hodson of Crossroads said in defense of the pulled ad, "It was a very small cable system. The four largest broadcast stations in Montana reviewed the facts supporting the ad and will continue airing it."

He said later, "We are communicating with the cable system and expect that the ad will be back up and running on cable soon."

Crossroads GPS v. Boswell

The Iowa Independent reports:

Crossroads GPS, a conservative policy and advocacy organization based in Washington, D.C., is building on its TV ads criticizing U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-Des Moines) with direct mailers in his district.

The mailer, reproduced below, is very similar to the TV ad. It attacks Boswell for supporting President Obama’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, and says the American Jobs Act will mean “more big government spending and tax increases of $450 billion.”

Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies has so far spent $186,556 at the KCCI and WHO networks in Des Moines, the local CBS and NBC affiliates. The group has ties to former White House deputy chief Karl Rove.

It’s unclear how much Crossroads is spending on the mailing, or what communities are receiving it. The mailing below was received in Des Moines.

Newt Enters the Top Tier

CBS reports that Newt is now in a three-way statistical tie with Cain and Romney:

A Marist-McClatchy poll confirms the trend, putting the race at Romney 23, Gingrich 19, Cain 17. Steve Thomma reports:

The Republican presidential race is being shaken up again, with Mitt Romney retaking the lead, Newt Gingrich surging into second place, and Herman Cain dropping to third place, according to a new McClatchy-Marist nationwide poll released Friday.

The poll of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents signaled that Romney retains his steady if uncommanding position and that, in the quest by most Republicans for an alternative, they’ve cooled on Cain and are turning to Gingrich. It's the first national survey taken entirely since the allegations of sexual harassment against Cain erupted into a full political firestorm this week.

Rick Perry Top Ten on Letterman

Rick Perry is in damage-control mode as Reuters reports:

Governor Rick Perry wrapped up his apology, explanation, damage control (take your pick) tour where it started — on TV with an appearance on David Letterman’s “Late Show.”

Instead of sitting in the guest seat, the Republican presidential hopeful stood center stage presenting the “Top Ten Rick Perry Excuses” for an embarrassing 53-second brain freeze live on national TV at the Michigan debate.

Here’s the Top Ten in Reverse Order:

• 10 “Actually there were 3 reasons I messed up last night 1) was the nerves and 2) was the headache and 3) uh, uh.”
• 9 “I don’t know what you’re talking about I think things went well.”
• 8 “I was up late last night watching ‘Dancing With the Stars’ “
• 7 “I thought the debate was tonight”
• 6 “Hey listen, you try concentrating with Mitt Romney smiling at you. That is one handsome dude!”
• 5 “Uhhhh, El Nino”
• 4 “I had a five-hour energy drink six hours before the debate.”
• 3 “You know I really hoped it would get me on my favorite talk show but instead I ended up here.”
• 2 “I wanted to help take the heat off my buddy Herman Cain.”
• 1 ” I just learned Justin Bieber is my father.”

Crossroads GPS Hits Obama, Warren ... and OWS

Crossroads GPS has been going after Democratic senators. Now, Sean Sullivan writes at National Journal:

The GOP-aligned super PAC [sic, it's a 501(c)(4)] Crossroads GPS is launching a wave of new television ads against three of this cycle's most vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbents and two of the party's strongest recruits.

In total, $1.8 million dollars is being spent over two weeks on the ads, which attack Sens. Jon Tester, D-Mont., Ben Nelson, D-Neb., and Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., as well as former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine and consumer advocate and Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren.

...

The ads against McCaskill, Tester, Nelson and Kaine use the same formula: tie the incumbents to President Obama. While each spot is different, the message is the same: a vote for them is a vote for the president.

The most interesting spot is the one running in Massachusetts against Warren. That ad seeks to paint Warren as an extremist, tying her to the Occupy Wall Street movement, which the ad portrays in a violent and otherwise negative light.

Warren has embraced the movement, and the state Republican Party has been hitting her over it, releasing daily "incident reports" about negative news related to the protests.

Occupy Wall Street is still in its nascent stage, so it's not yet clear who the movement will ultimately be received by the public. But the results of a recent Quinnipiac poll illustrate some of the perils of aligning oneself too closely with the movement: 30 percent of voters view the movement favorably, a 39 percent plurality view it unfavorably, and an additional 30 percent said they have not heard enough to form an opinion.

Also at National Journal, Reid Wilson writes:

Here's what they're spending in two of those states, Virginia and Massachusetts, according to several Democratic sources tracking the buys:

Massachusetts
Springfield: $21,325, or approximately 159 gross ratings points
Boston: $165,200, 207 points
Providence: $50,499, 212 points
Albany: $1,106, 7 points.

Virginia
Richmond: $33,375, 303 points
Roanoke: $32,950, 397 points
Washington: $180,875, 213 points
Norfolk: $49,345, 366 points

So, not the world's largest ad buys, and nowhere close to the most significant expenditures we're likely to see before Election Day next year. But these are hardly the tiny pittances some outside groups purchase in order to generate a lot of earned media. Voters will see these ads an average of two or three times each, and for a blank canvass, that's significant.