Newt, Mitt, and the Months Ahead

Public Policy Polling reports:

One reason Gingrich is moving ahead of Romney in Iowa? 42% of voters say they would have major concerns about a candidate who supported an individual mandate for health care to just 34% who say they'd have major concerns about a candidate who cheated on his spouse. Romney's health care plan is a bigger liability than Gingrich's marriages. There's also not much evidence that Gingrich's immigration stance will prove to be an issue. Only 29% of caucus voters think illegal immigrants who have been in the country for 25 years and paid their taxes and obeyed the law should be deported, to 44% who think they should not be. Something may sink Newt's campaign in the next month, but it's not likely to be that issue.

For all that there's one piece of news in this poll that's very good for Romney and very bad for Gingrich. 66% of Romney's remaining supporters in Iowa are strongly committed to him. 62% of Paul's supporters are strongly committed to him. But only 49% of Gingrich's supporters say they'll definitely vote for him. Newt's support is comparatively weak. And the second choice of Gingrich voters? For 26% of them it's none other than Mitt Romney to 17% for Perry, 15% for Bachmann, and 13% for Paul. So if Gingrich's campaign does fade over the course of December we could end up with Romney back at the top, just like was expected all along.

At Politico, Jonathan Martin writes:

Newt Gingrich’s surge is prompting the first signs of nervousness among top Mitt Romney supporters, some of whom are urging their candidate to take a more aggressive approach to arrest the former House speaker’s sudden rise.

...

“If Newt is the nominee, he’ll hurt our chances everywhere — House, Senate, etc.,” said a Republican lobbyist who is backing Romney. “Everyone thinks Romney hangs on [and still wins the nomination]. I’m not so sure.”

This Romney supporter’s idea for pushback? “Marianne Gingrich needs to cut an ad in Iowa and South Carolina.”

That would be the candidate’s second wife, whom he divorced after carrying on an affair with his current wife, Callista.

Not every Romney supporter wants to go to that political equivalent of nuclear war right now, but conversations with high-profile backers of Romney reveal an unmistakable sense that Gingrich is for real and not a so-called “flavor of the month.”

Coming at a moment when Romney has already made a few missteps — most notably a testy interview with Fox News anchor Bret Baier that reflected poorly on his ability to weather tough questions — his supporters are on edge.

One former RNC chair said there’s “no question” that the Romney camp’s pulse has begun racing and that Boston is being urged to confront Gingrich.

“I do know that that the message is coming through to them that, ‘You need to have a third party going after Newt and if you can’t do it that way you’ve got to do it yourself,’” said the former chair.

Trip Gabriel and Jeff Zeleny write at The New York Times:

If neither candidate succeeds in knocking out the other in the burst of early tests in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, Mr. Gingrich could be faced with the ultimate challenge to his campaign: the need to survive a war of attrition of the sort for which he is unprepared at the moment.

Where volunteers for Mr. Romney have gathered voters’ signatures to be on the ballots of Alabama, Illinois, Indiana, Vermont and Virginia, Mr. Gingrich’s campaign is only beginning to activate volunteers in those states.

And adding to the specter of a drawn-out battle is a change in the delegate selection process, which could make the contest a Republican version of the protracted 2008 Democratic primary fight between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, which was not resolved until all states had voted.

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Republicans operated under a winner-takes-all system in the past, which set the stage for an early victor, but this time most delegates will be awarded proportionally for contests taking place before April 1, which means finishing second can be nearly as fruitful as winning.

A long contest requires significant organization, which the Romney campaign has been building through an exhaustive state-by-state delegate operation. The Gingrich campaign, which went dormant in the summer, is racing to catch up. Mr. Gingrich, for example, will not appear on the Missouri ballot because his campaign missed the filing deadline last month and failed to send a $1,000 check to the secretary of state’s office.

Insiders, Outsiders, and Newt

Byron York writes at The Washington Examiner:

There's a deep and growing divide in the Republican world between those who are able to reconcile themselves with -- to wrap their heads around -- the possibility of Newt Gingrich becoming the GOP presidential nominee, and those who are not. It's becoming increasingly clear that it is Washington insiders who are having the most trouble imagining a Gingrich nomination, while Republicans outside Washington aren't having a problem.

Of course it's the Washington insiders who have the most actual experience dealing with Gingrich. Just look at what Republican Sen. Tom Coburn, who served with Gingrich in the House in the 1990s, said about the former speaker on Fox News Sunday. "I'm not inclined to be a supporter of Newt Gingrich's having served under him for four years and experienced personally his leadership," Coburn said. "I found it lacking often times."
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Gingrich has also taken flak from another former colleague, Rep. Peter King. "The problem was, over a period of time, he couldn't stay focused," King said of Gingrich a few days ago. "He was undisciplined. Too often, he made it about himself."

It's more than just former colleagues. If one were to survey politicos, journalists and others who lived through Gingrich's years as speaker in Washington, there would likely be a near-consensus that Gingrich will blow up his candidacy through some mixture of arrogance and indiscipline. Those insiders simply don't believe there is a New Newt. Old Newt, the Gingrich who alienated many of his colleagues back in the 90s, will reassert himself soon enough, they believe.
...

When outsiders talk about the Old Newt, they're mostly talking about his personal life -- the man who had affairs and is now on his third marriage. "I was all for Newt during the Gingrich revolution, but when he had his affairs, I swore I would never vote again for him for dogcatcher," said South Carolinian Gene Bustard after a Gingrich town hall last week in Greenville. "But as much as I try not to like him, I love what he says."

Lots of voters would say the same thing. They have no memories of personal slights or insider gossip about the Gingrich of 15 years ago. For them, there really is a New Newt -- unless Gingrich himself proves otherwise.

Newt Leads in Iowa

Jennifer Jacobs writes at The Des Moines Register:

With the dizzying fall of Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich has stepped into the breach and now stands alone as the most popular GOP presidential candidate in The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll.

Gingrich, with support of 25 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers, is seven points ahead of the rising Ron Paul, who’s at 18 percent. Mitt Romney drops to third, at 16percent, denting his previously armor-plated Iowa polling average. Romney’s support stood at 22 percent last month.

Cain, who suspended his campaign Saturday, had plunged from 23 percent to 8 percent in just over a month, tied with Michele Bachmann.

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One striking finding: The results show Gingrich’s ascendancy has the potential to grow, pollster J. Ann Selzer said.

More respondents choose Gingrich as their second choice than any other candidate. Together, 43 percent of likely caucusgoers pick him as first or second.

With Cain’s departure from the race, Gingrich will likely benefit. More Cain supporters name Gingrich as their second choice than any other candidate.

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Another interesting finding: Paul, often dismissed by the political establishment, has climbed 6 points since the Register’s October poll.

“The big surprise potential now is with Ron Paul,” said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

But Paul could be closing in on his ceiling, the poll indicates. Just 7 percent choose him as their second choice.

“This is where Paul is weak, in that he has little breadth from which to draw new support,” Selzer said.

At the same paper, Kathie Obradovich writes:

Thirty-five percent of likely caucusgoers have seen at least one candidate in person so far. [emphasis added] That’s higher than in late December 2007, when 31 percent had seen at least one candidate, even though the Republicans have spent fewer days in the state this year. The question is whether the personal touch still matters. Bachmann has had the most in-person exposure to caucusgoers, with 20 percent saying they’ve seen her. Paul is second at 15 percent. Of the candidates campaigning in Iowa, only Perry is in single digits.

The Iowa Poll of 401 likely caucusgoers was taken Nov. 27-30 by Selzer & Co. For more about the poll, go to DesMoinesRegister.com/ caucus.

Unsure About Romney

Two groups of Republicans seem to have misgivings about Mitt Romney: leaders and rank-and-file voters.

The Los Angeles Times reports on a Peter Hart focus group:

Romney's picture evoked some positive connections -- "minister," said one participant. "Businessman," offered another. But most answers carried a derisive sting: "TV pitchman," "actor," "salesman."
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The deeper problem Romney appears to face became evident, however, when Hart posed questions designed to get beyond the traditional "political" attributes and reach more personal connections.

If the candidate were a member of your family, who would he be, Hart asked. Gingrich came first, drawing comparisons to a grandfather, a father, a favorite uncle.

Then came Romney's turn and far more distant associations: "neighbor," "cousin" "twice removed." "Richer than the rest of us, so he wouldn't come to our events," said Christine, 38. "The dad who's never home," added Chris, 27, and the group's chief supporter of Ron Paul.

The New York Times reports:

Mr. Romney, a former chairman of the Republican Governors Association, has struggled to win widespread endorsements from the party establishment. He is courting Gov. Nikki R. Haley of South Carolina, who said she will choose a candidate this month. He has intensified campaign efforts to send a signal that he is fighting for the nomination, including kicking off a new volunteer drive this weekend called Earn It With Mitt.

Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, which is among the critical battleground states in the general election, said that “short of a major scandal” he believes Mr. Romney would be the nominee because of his fluency on economic issues. But he said Mr. Romney’s support might grow if he spoke more conversationally.

“Mitt has a 59-point economic plan. I’d like to see that boiled down,” Mr. Walker said. “Not that he should get rid of it, but boil it done to three or five core things, because politically it’s more understandable, and it’s also easier to hold people accountable.”

Cain Is Out

CBS reports:

The suspension of Herman Cain's presidential bid on Saturday intensifies the seeming two-man race for the Republican nomination between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich.

With exactly one month left before the nation's first nominating contest in Iowa -- and some important holidays in between -- Cain's departure gives Gingrich a golden opportunity to lock up his status as the authentic conservative that many GOP voters are looking for. If this year's volatile primary race has shown anything, it's that Republicans are desperately searching for an alternative to Romney, whom voters fear may be too moderate, and Gingrich is the latest candidate to challenge the former Massachusetts governor in the polls.

That said, it's not a sure bet that Cain's exit will transfer to more consolidated support for Gingrich. Romney may not be the conservative favorite, but polls show he's convinced voters he's a competent and competitive contender -- and given Gingrich's numerous flaws, he may not withstand an effective head-to-head match up with the former governor.

Video from ABC News:

Unemployment Falls, But...

CNBC reports:

Job creation remained weak in the U.S. during November, with just 120,000 new positions created, though the unemployment rate slid to 8.6 percent, a government report showed Friday.

The rate fell from the previous month's 9.0 percent, a move which in part reflected a drop in those looking for jobs. The participation rate dropped to 64 percent, from 64.2 percent in October, representing 315,000 fewer job-seekers.

The actual employment level increased by 278,000. The total amount of those without a job fell to 13.3 million.

At The New Republic, William Galston has three sobering notes:

First: Despite the growth of the working-age population over the past four years, the labor force (roughly, the sum of those employed plus job-seekers) has not expanded. For various reasons, more and more Americans have been dropping out of the labor force. If Americans of working age were participating in the labor force at the same rate as they were at the onset of the recession, the labor force would be nearly 5 million people larger, and unemployment would be significantly worse in both absolute and percentage terms.

Second: Despite the modest economic recovery since the recession ended in mid-2009, total employment remains more than 5.5 million below the level of 2007 and about 1.6 million below where it was when President Obama took office.

Third: To regain full employment (5 percent, which happens to be the same as the level when the recession began) with the pre-recessionary labor force participation rate, we would need 150.7 million jobs—10.1 million more than we have today. That’s a reasonable measure of the hole we’re still in, two and a half years since the official end of the recession.

Gallup's report on presidential approval is thus not surprising:

President Obama's 43% average job approval rating last month ranks as one of the lowest for an elected president in November of his third year in office. Only Jimmy Carter had a lower rating, at 40%. But Carter's rating surged in late November 1979 because of a rally in support after the onset of the Iranian Hostage Crisis, and he averaged above 50% in December. All recently elected presidents were at or above 50% in December of their third year in office.

Tough Ron Paul Web Ad Against Newt

Neil King writes at The Wall Street Journal:

Texas Rep. Ron Paul is tearing into Republican presidential rival Newt Gingrich with a new web ad that ranks among the most scathing of the year.

Hitting similar themes that the Democrats used earlier this week with a video highlighting Mitt Romney’s litany of flip-flops, the Paul campaign blasts the former House speaker in a video entitled: “Newt Gingrich: Serial Hypocrisy.”

Largely using news clips from recent weeks, the ad seeks to paint Mr. Gingrich as a paid hatchet man for the health-care industry and the mortgage giant Freddie Mac. It is also heavy with clips of conservative icons such as Rush Limbaugh and Rep. Paul Ryan taking swipes at Mr. Gingrich’s positions.

The video will not run on television. But the Paul campaign is promising to send it “to a far-reaching email list of conservative voters nationally, including in key early voting states.”