A Blue State in a Red Tide: The 2014 Midterm Elections

The Big Picture

Historical patterns:

• Midterms are usually bad for the party holding the presidency.
• Most incumbents will win reelection.

Campaign money:

• Candidate money
• Outside money and the Democrats

Good news for the in-party:

• Unemployment is down.
• GDP is up

But the good news is not really that great:

• Labor force participation is way down.
• Middle-class wealth is shrinking.

What about California?

• The budget is in balance, but...
• Unemployment, poverty, inequality, business climate are all bad.

The public notices:

• Right track/Wrong track
• Obama approval

California elections

• Public opinion -- meh!
• Turnout in the primary was just 25% of registered voters, 18% of eligible adults.
• My guess for November is about 45% of registered, 33% of eligible.

The House

• The lineup
• Safe seats: gerrymandering, intentional and unintentional
• House generic ballot

The Senate

• Exposure
• The lineup

Some ads

• Kashkari "drowning" ad
• Joni Ernst in Iowa
• Wendy Davis "wheelchair" ad in Texas
• Grimes and guns in Kentucky
• But Obama lines help the GOP