Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. Things look bad for the GOP.
The April 2026 Emerson College Polling national survey of likely voters finds Democrats have a 10-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, leading Republicans 50% to 40%. Ten percent are undecided.
“Democrats’ strength is driven by an increase in support among Hispanic voters, women, and independents,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Hispanics break for Democrats by a 35-point margin, 61% to 26%, women by 21 points, 55% to 34%, and independents by 19 points, 50% to 31%.”
President Trump holds a 40% job approval rating and 56% disapproval among likely voters. This is a two-point decrease in the president’s approval and a five-point increase in disapproval since March. Data was collected before the White House Correspondents’ Dinner.
“Trump is underwater among Hispanic voters, 70% to 29%, compared to this time last year when they were split: 44% disapproved and 41% approved,” Kimball said.
Voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, 56% to 38%, foreign policy, 54% to 39%, and immigration policy, 53% to 43%.