Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
Trump endorsed Ken Paxton for the Senate.
Paxton officially ousted Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP runoff by a hefty margin, after top Republicans in Washington lit $100 million on fire burning the man they now have to embrace for the incumbent they thought would be the better bet in the general election.
That rescue mission for Cornyn officially failed on Tuesday, but Trump had already sealed his fate when he endorsed Paxton last week. Now, those same Republicans who have spent months attacking the scandal-plagued Paxton are coming around. Grudgingly.
The NRSC, which backed Cornyn, scrubbed its social media and website of anti-Paxton posts.
In a statement on Tuesday, the committee led by Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) said the state “isn’t going to elect James Talarico,” the Democratic nominee, while attacking his record. Missing from the statement, notably, was any mention of Paxton by name, as well as any formal commitment to spending on his behalf. The Sen. John Thune-aligned super PAC Senate Leadership Fund, whose affiliated nonprofit poured millions into ads for Cornyn and attacking Paxton, had made no public comments as of 12:30 a.m. Eastern, hours after the race was called.
Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott, who has had an occasionally rocky relationship with the attorney general, congratulated Paxton on X, but his public statement on Instagram focused on the broader GOP ticket, calling for Republicans to “crush socialist Democrats’ dream of turning Texas blue” and promising that a “united Republican Party will drive victory.”
Other GOP-aligned groups are jumping right in for their nominee. The powerful Club for Growth Action immediately lent its endorsement, and one of its aligned-PACs quickly dropped an ad that repeatedly mocks Talarico as a “woke weirdo.”
And the Akin ploy is alive and well.
Democrat Johnny Garcia has won his party’s primary in Texas’ 35th Congressional District, NBC News projects, defeating a rival whom party leaders had condemned for antisemitic comments as Democrats look to compete in a district Republicans redrew to their benefit.”
The district stretches from Austin to San Antonio, the result of Republican efforts to combine two Democratic seats into one and create a new district leaning their way. Donald Trump carried the district by about 10.5 points in 2024.
Despite that result, there are signs the district could be competitive in the general election, including $1 million in spending from an opaque outside group aimed at boosting Garcia’s opponent, sex therapist Maureen Galindo, despite the controversies dogging her. Punchbowl News reported that the super PAC, Lead Left PAC, had links to a GOP fundraising platform.
2. Popular Information found that Lead Left is linked to Caleb Crosby, a Republican operative. Crosby is the treasurer of the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), the primary super PAC of the House GOP.https://t.co/cwW6n9yUBV
— Judd Legum (@JuddLegum) May 27, 2026