Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. The 2026 environment is very favorable for the Democrats, but a hard leftward shift could spoil their chances.
These candidates of the activist left often seem to fare much worse than mainstream progressives, even though they may not be very different on the issues. The members of Justice Democrats, which includes the Squad and many of their congressional allies, fare about five points worse than other Democrats. Elizabeth Warren, who might count as part of that broader group of activist-backed progressives who aren’t democratic socialist, has underperformed the Democratic baseline in Massachusetts by as much as 10 points on net.
When relatively moderate analysts say that progressives badly underperform, it’s usually with this narrower group of activist-backed progressives in mind.
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If there’s any good news for Dr. El-Sayed, it’s that he ought to have a lot of room to underperform and still win. With Democrats ahead by an average of seven points on the generic ballot nationwide — in which people are asked which party they’ll support for Congress in November — Democrats ought to be favored to win an open Senate race in Michigan by a similar margin. Most of the candidates of the progressive left haven’t underperformed by so much. To lose, he would need to be one of the worst electoral performers in the party. But if the early polls are any indication, it’s possible he will be.
Anthony Salvanto, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus at CBS:
Unlike the public overall, Democrats are mostly positive on socialism and have a more favorable impression of it than of capitalism.
Socialism finds more positive views among Democrats with college degrees than those without. They're even more likely to perceive a gap between the richest and the middle class. And less likely to say the Democratic Party is "effective."
Younger Democrats more than older ones, and White Democrats more than other racial groups tend to have more favorable views of socialism.
