Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
Ryan Deto at Axios:
In April, Elaine Kamarck, Jordan Muchnick, and Nikola Misetic wrote at Brookings:With all precincts reported but still some ballots left to count, Democrats appear to have flipped a conservative state House district north of Pittsburgh.
The latest: Democrat Brandon Dukes led by 88 votes against Republican Scott Timko on Tuesday night with over 99% of the votes counted, according to the Associated Press.
Provisional and overseas ballots still need to be counted. AP had not called the race as of early Wednesday morning.
Why it matters: The apparent flip doesn’t impact Democrats' narrow majority in the state House, but it boosts the party’s momentum heading into the midterms, where Dems are hoping to take control of Pennsylvania.
The big picture: Dukes overcame a district that voted for President Trump by over 18 points in 2024, one of the Dems’ best special election performances of the cycle.Democrat James Malone narrowly flipped a state Senate seat in Lancaster County in 2025, overcoming a 15-point Trump district.
Special elections for state legislative seats were also instructive. Most of these vacancies resulted from incumbent resignations, in some cases to seek other offices, or deaths. In Mississippi, three of the districts that flipped had been redistricted.
One of the most notable contests took place in Florida’s House District 87, which includes Mar-a-Lago, President Trump’s home. The district was held by a Trump-endorsed Republican and ended up in the hands of a first-time Democratic candidate. The result surprised many, perhaps including the president, who voted by mail in the contest.
To date, 12 state legislative seats have flipped from Republican to Democratic control in special elections. When accounting for Democratic gains in the 2025 off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the total number of flips from Republican to Democratic is 30. By contrast, no seats have flipped in the opposite direction. Democrats have overperformed by 4.5 percentage points on average.
If these races are viewed alongside the substantial 2025 Democratic wins in New Jersey and Virginia, the midterm outlook appears favorable for Democrats. The party picked up seats in Congress and state legislatures, won a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and secured a mayoral race in Waukesha, Wisconsin—a city where Republicans had won for years.