Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging. Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.
Trump keeps making things worse for his party. In Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina, he supported the nomination of dubious Republican candidates who could lose otherwise winnable races. In Florida, he is attacking a Republican who faces a tight contest.
President Donald Trump appeared to intensify his irritation with GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar on Saturday evening after reposting a series of social media attacks on the congresswoman who made waves last week for breaking with him on his immigration tactics.
The president shared in quick succession on Truth Social at least 14 posts from other users critical of Salazar, who is facing a tough reelection race in Florida as Republicans’ midterm fortunes decline.
“She is nothing but a back stabber. I’m glad the Latino support hasn’t wavered,” one user wrote in a post shared by Trump.
Another user slammed the congresswoman: “She wants amnesty for the ppl how criminally crossed our borders defying our laws.”
“So we need a NEW Republican to Replace Salazar,” different user said
Jacob Ogles at Florida Politics:
One of the nation’s top political prognosticators sees two Republican incumbents in trouble in Florida, and one open race tied. Based on Cook Political Report’s current ratings, it’s possible Republicans net no seats from a new congressional map.
The top election rater shifted 15 House races in Democrats’ direction. That included saying Republican U.S. Reps. Anna Paulina Luna in Florida’s 13th Congressional District and María Elvira Salazar in Florida’s 27th Congressional District now sit in “Lean R” territory.
That means they hold edges on respective Democratic challengers Leela Gray and Eliott Rodriguez, but are more imperiled in a climate increasingly hostile to Republicans.