Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments.
At WP, Dan Balz and Scott Clement report that Trump's approval rating is stuck at 37%.
Assessments of Trump’s handling of the economy and Iran are worse than his overall ratings, with 33 percent of Americans saying they approve of his economic stewardship and 29 percent approving of his conduct in overseeing the war with Iran. Immigration is a relative strength, with 40 percent approving. That is unchanged from a low point in February but significantly lower than at the beginning of his current term, when 50 percent approved of his immigration actions.
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Most Americans now doubt their living standards will improve. Asked whether they and their families will “have a good chance of improving your standard of living,” 40 percent said yes and 59 percent said no. In 2018, during Trump’s first term, 65 percent responded positively to a similar question in the long-running General Social Survey.
A new high of 43 percent say they are “not as well off” as when Trump returned to office, a 12-point increase since February and on par with views toward the Biden administration. In 2018, only 13 percent said they were worse off than when Trump began his first term.
Two-thirds of Americans say groceries are unaffordable (66 percent), up from 45 percent before the war began in February. Inflation data doesn’t show a sharp increase in grocery prices, but this might reflect the broader impact of months of higher prices for gas and other items.
A year ago, the Republican-controlled Congress passed, and Trump signed, what they then called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The measure extended tax cuts approved during Trump’s first term and included a variety of other tax and spending measures. Republicans have since begun calling the bill the “working families tax cut,” hoping that rebranding will reshape public opinion about the bill.
The strategy is not working, with 19 percent saying they paid less in taxes due to the measure while 25 percent think they paid more in taxes, according to the Post-Ipsos survey. Another 25 percent say they see no difference, and 30 percent say they are unsure what impact the bill had on their taxes. Even among Republicans, about as many say they saw their taxes increase or did not change as said they paid less in taxes.
The largest-ever global oil supply shortage has topped economists’ lists of concerns since the start of the Iran war. But even as the United States and Iran resumed their blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil surging above $80 a barrel the economy faces a new problem.
Gasoline. That is, the world’s ability to make it.
The hundreds of millions of barrels of oil that exited the Persian Gulf and hit the market over the past few weeks helped add cushion to the world’s supply of oil — but they aren’t good for much of anything on their own. Oil needs to be refined into products and fuels people can use, including asphalt, plastic, heating oil, jet fuel, diesel and gasoline.
But the world’s refining capacity is deeply constrained. That’s in part because the supply chain got messed up during the war. It’s also because Iran attacked dozens of Middle Eastern refineries. And, more recently, Ukraine started blowing up Russian energy facilities.
Layer on extreme temperatures disrupting the cool conditions refineries need for proper distillation, and you’ve got yourself a big problem. Global refineries are processing 8.4 million fewer barrels of crude each day than they were before the war started — making 10% less fuel, according to Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan.
Lisa Friedman and Rebecca F. Elliott at NYT
President Trump’s first naval blockade on Iranian ports in April caused oil prices to rise, but not to the stratospheric levels some feared. And Tehran’s oil exports plunged, depriving Iran of billions in revenue.
The strategy may be harder to pull off a second time without inflicting broader collateral damage to markets.
U.S. oil reserves, which have been steadily drawn down since the start of the war to help combat global shortages, are now at their lowest levels since 1983. Commercial inventories also have been run down. And other oil-producing countries in the region may have a harder time getting their ships out because of the heightened risks.
Another wild card is China. Usually the world’s largest oil importer, China has been helping to keep oil prices at bay by significantly decreasing imports of crude. New data on Tuesday showed that pattern held at least through June. But China might not continue on that path.