"We're gonna get crushed"

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging. Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

Mychael Schnell at MS NOW:

There are just six weeks to go until the midterm elections. The national average for a gallon of gas is just a couple cents short of $4.50. Diesel has climbed above $6.50. And Republicans are officially freaking out.

Last week, House GOP lawmakers got into a heated shouting match over what to do about one of the party’s biggest vulnerabilities — those soaring gas prices — with a private meeting ending without a path forward.

Vice President JD Vance traveled to Kansas to campaign for Republicans on the ballot, a sign of the increasingly competitive environment even in reliably red territories. And after months of speculation that he may not spend, President Donald Trump is unleashing tens of millions of dollars from his super PAC, trying to give struggling candidates a late boost.

Publicly, Republicans are putting on a brave face, insisting that Democratic dreams of a wave election are far from certain. But privately, GOP lawmakers say they see the writing on the wall, recognizing that even some relatively safe districts could be vulnerable.

“We’re gonna get crushed,” one House Republican told MS NOW. “The only question is by how much.”

This GOP lawmaker, who was granted anonymity to discuss the internal dynamics, called this midterm cycle “a gasoline and ground beef election.”

“And when you’ve got ground beef at $9 a pound and diesel at $6.50 to $7.50. We’re getting screwed,” the member said.

Another House Republican, who was also granted anonymity, told MS NOW that if you’re a Republican and you’re not concerned, “you’re stupid.”

“On the macro level, yes, they’re concerned, of course they should be,” the lawmaker said. “But is there still hope? Absolutely. Are many of these races within striking distance? They are, if you believe polling.”

That anxiety for Republicans is taking hold with just 42 days until the midterms, and polls showing Democrats with a solid advantage nationally.