Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging. Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.
1. Diesel Price/Gal: January forecast $3.41. September reality $6.39.
2. Midterm Prospects: In January, Dems had an 18% shot at the Senate per Kalshi. On Friday it hit 60%, and Dems’ generic ballot lead doubled.
Sources: RCP generic ballot poll aggregation; Kalshi (Senate & House)
3. The Fed: In February, markets bet on a cut. In September, the Fed hiked. Today 87% predict another hike this year.
