AOC and Newsom Get Attention

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.  With the GOP in total control of the federal government, Democrats are figuring out how to respond.

Amie Parnes at The Hill:

When California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) launched his podcast last week, his comments on transgender athletes made headlines.

Republicans used it to mock how far left Democrats have become. And the podcast, aptly named “This is Gavin Newsom,” also sparked backlash from Democrats.

But the point is, it got some attention — and that’s exactly what Democrats are seeking to do on the heels of their loss in November.

Since then, Democrats have been trying to reclaim the political conversation, anxious to reconnect with voters not just behind a podium or in social media posts. They’re “creating moments,” as one strategist put it, in other ways.

While Newsom, widely seen as a presidential contender for 2028, launched a podcast, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is hitting the road in the coming weeks alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). The duo is expected to speak not just to Democrats but Republicans as well.

Democratic operatives familiar with the matter say they expect other lawmakers to hit the road in blue states, purple states and even red states in an effort to leave the Beltway parlance behind them and speak face-to-face with voters.

The Trump Slump

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start. His irrational trade policies are crashing the stock market.

Aaron Blake at WP:

A new CNN poll released Wednesday is the latest survey to suggest that Trump’s chaotic presidency — most notably his government cuts and his unpredictable tariffs gambit — has squandered whatever goodwill and mandate he walked into office with.

The top line is that Trump’s approval on the economy is worse than it’s ever been. Americans disapprove of his handling of it by 56 percent to 44 percent. CNN’s polling through Trump’s two terms had never before found a majority disapproving of Trump on the economy.

The network’s new survey is the second poll this month, along with one from Reuters-Ipsos, to show Trump hitting a new low on the economy, which was his most consistently positive major issue during his first term.

The CNN poll also suggests there’s one main culprit: his tariffs. Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of them by an even wider margin, 61-39.

Trumpist Antisemitism

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start. 

 Caroline Radnofsky, Bryan Gallion and Colin Sheeley at NBC:

One of the Trump administration’s deputy press secretaries at the Defense Department has an extensive record of racist, isolationist and ultra-nationalist posts on social media, including pushing discredited conspiracy theories about a Jewish victim of lynching and about Haitian migrants, as well as rejecting U.S. support for Israel and Ukraine.

Kingsley Wilson’s social media attracted attention earlier this week when people started resurfacing posts she shared on X in 2023 and 2024, in which she used a talking point widely repeated by antisemitic advocates: that Leo Frank, a Jewish man convicted of raping and murdering a teenage girl and then lynched by a Georgia mob in 1915, but posthumously pardoned decades later, was in fact guilty. Frank is widely believed to have been falsely accused and unjustly convicted. His case led to the formation of the Anti-Defamation League.

Zachary Basu at Axios:

Antisemitic conspiracy theories are flooding America's most popular pro-Trump podcasts, exposing deep political and moral fissures at the heart of the new MAGA coalition.

Why it matters: At a moment of record-high antisemitism in the U.S., an astonishing split screen has emerged between the Trump administration and prominent influencers that reliably spread MAGA's message.President Trump has prioritized cracking down on antisemitism and criticism of Israel on college campuses, including by revoking federal funding and arresting pro-Palestinian activists.

But many of the podcasts Trump appeared on during the campaign are simultaneously platforming far-right provocateurs who are openly hostile toward Israel and use racist tropes about Jewish influence.

Driving the news: Conspiracy theories about Israel, Jeffrey Epstein and Jewish elites dominated four MAGA-friendly podcasts last week that had previously hosted Trump. All came out within the same 48-hour period.

• Candace Owens, a pro-Trump lightning rod who left The Daily Wire last year over her embrace of antisemitic rhetoric, was a guest on "This Past Weekend with Theo Von."
• Andrew Tate, the misogynist influencer accused of sex trafficking and rape in Romania, appeared on the Nelk Boys' "Full Send" podcast and Patrick Bet David's "PBD Podcast." He also attended UFC 313 in Las Vegas, where he was welcomed by UFC president and Trump ally Dana White.
• Ian Carroll, an independent researcher who has suggested Israel was involved in 9/11, spent nearly three hours on the biggest platform of all — "The Joe Rogan Experience."

Together, the conversations were broadcast to tens of millions of listeners on Spotify, YouTube and other platforms.

What they're saying: Both sides of the MAGA divide agree that last week marked an inflection point in the mainstreaming of antisemitism on the so-called New Right."For the first time in my lifetime, a lot of successful Jewish friends called me worried this week — names we all know — asking what is going to happen as these libels re-enter the mainstream, and are shared by millions," Palantir co-founder and Trump ally Joe Lonsdale wrote on X.

"We live now in a world where the red pill has gone mainstream," white nationalist Nick Fuentes gleefully declared on his show, rattling off a list of other personalities — including rapper Ye — who are now openly antisemitic.

Why Stock Market Crashes Are Politically Relevant

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.  His irrational trade policies are crashing the stock market.

Gallup, May 24, 2023:

Gallup finds 61% of Americans reporting that they own stock, based on its April Economy and Personal Finance survey. This is up from the 56% measured in 2021 and 55% measured in 2020, and is the highest it has been since 2008.

Stock ownership averaged 62% between 2001 and 2008 -- but it fell after the 2007-2009 recession and remained at a reduced level until this year.

 

Trump's Enforcement Machine

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.  He is using his power to punish his perceived enemies.

Alex Isenstadt at Axios:

Anyone who thinks President Trump's mesmerizing hold over the GOP will slip if his poll numbers slide is missing one of his biggest innovations in American politics:The creation of a cash-flush political operation that has raked in around a half-billion dollars — about the same amount the GOP's House and Senate campaign arms spent during the entirety of the last midterm campaign.

Why it matters: It's unheard of for a president not running for reelection to raise that kind of money. But the cash is just one piece of a bigger power play that's arguably the most powerful, well-funded political apparatus ever.The day after Election Day, Trump — at a time most presidents-elect are scrambling to get their transitions rolling — started calling major donors to start building an enforcement machine for his agenda.

"Right now, there's a huge price to pay by crossing Donald Trump," said Republican strategist Corry Bliss, who formerly led the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC. "When you combine a 92% approval rating among Republican voters with unlimited money, that equals: 'Yes, sir.'"

Zoom in: Two Trump-aligned outside groups, MAGA Inc. and Securing American Greatness, are poised to play big in 2026, including by helping Republicans expand their congressional majorities. The groups also have another focus: Reward Republicans who support Trump — and punish those who don't.Elon Musk has his own super PAC, America PAC, which he can use to target Republicans who cross Trump.

The big picture: Trump lacked a well-funded political operation after the 2016 election, hampering his ability to put pressure on Republicans who waffled over backing his agenda and to support or oppose candidates of his choosing. Trump advisers say that won't be the case this time.Now, combine Trump's super PACs with Musk's resources, then toss in Musk's control of X plus Trump's control of Truth Social. Any GOP skeptics or critics could instantly face a dangerous primary challenge — and unending waves of critical messaging.

Erin Mulvaney and C. Ryan Barber at WSJ:

Elite law firms formed a proud part of the opposition to the first Trump administration. This time around, the industry is fearful of taking on a president who hasn’t shied away from punishing his enemies.

President Trump on Thursday signed an executive order directing agencies to strip security clearances, government contracts and federal-building access from a top law firm with Democratic ties, Perkins Coie. It followed a similar, but more narrowly tailored, order late last month against attorneys at Covington & Burling representing former special counsel Jack Smith, who oversaw the investigation and federal prosecutions of Trump.

“We have a lot of law firms that we’re going to be going after because they were very dishonest people,” Trump said in an interview that aired Sunday on Fox News.

The White House moves have sent a chill through the world of Big Law, at a time when litigation has emerged as one of the few checks on the president.

 

Medicaid Messaging

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.

Hans Nichols at Axios:

The short-term funding bill only deals with discretionary spending and won't affect spending levels for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, according to GOP leadership aides.But in the GOP's separate budget reconciliation package, lawmakers have instructed the Energy and Commerce Committee to cut some $880 billion, which will be very difficult to do if they don't touch Medicaid.

The bottom line: It was unclear if Friday's Democratic demands on Medicaid apply to the CR or the bigger tax and spending package that has yet to fully take shape. But both House leaders are signaling to their rank-and-file that they expect party loyalty on next week's vote.

Dr. N. Adam Brown at MedPage Today:

Medicaid serves lower-income adults, children, pregnant women, and people with disabilities, as well as dually-enrolled Medicare-Medicaid older adults. Despite the talking point that people on Medicaid "don't work," 92% of adults under 65 who are on Medicaid and don't receive other social security benefits work full or part-time.

While 80 million Americans are insured through Medicaid, many people don't think of themselves as "on Medicaid" -- even when they are.

Why? Because Medicaid is not branded as Medicaid in most states. If you tell a patient in South Carolina they might lose Medicaid, their eyes may glaze over. Tell them Healthy Connections is at risk? You have their attention. In Tennessee, Medicaid is TennCare and in Ohio it is the Buckeye Health Plan. In Florida, Medicaid sounds like an orange juice brand: Simply Healthcare. (Seriously, it feels like that moniker should have an exclamation point behind it.)

Adding to the confusion, many states offer Medicaid coverage contracted through private companies. These types of plans are state-funded, private insurance-branded programs (called managed care organizations) often featuring actual private insurance logos, a fact that further distances them from their federally funded origin. No wonder Tennesseans shrug when we talk about Medicaid recipients. They don't think, or even know, they are one. And if they do not know the issue applies to them, they may be less likely to oppose cuts.

In every state, we need to call Medicaid by its real name.
...

This is why healthcare advocates need to translate the impact of cuts at the individual, family, and community level. Instead of saying "Republicans want to reduce Medicaid by $880 billion" try, "If Republicans' Medicaid plans come to fruition, you could lose your Buckeye Health Plan health insurance." Or try explaining how these cuts could erode their child's access to care. Nearly half of U.S. children rely on Medicaid and 40% of all births are covered by Medicaid. Cutting the program would destabilize pediatric practices, many of which already operate on thin margins. If parents think they already have to wait too long to get a well-child visit, just wait until these cuts take effect.

Trump and Putin

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.  Trump is giving Putin nearly everything he could want.

Andrew Roth and Luke Harding at The Guardian:

Donald Trump has said Vladimir Putin was “doing what anybody would do” after Russia launched a massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine days after the US cut off vital intelligence and military aid to Kyiv.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Friday Trump said he finds it “easier” to work with Russia than Ukraine and that Putin “wants to end the war”.

“I’m finding it more difficult, frankly, to deal with Ukraine. And they don’t have the cards,” Trump said. “In terms of getting a final settlement, it may be easier dealing with Russia.”

Asked whether the Russian leader was taking advantage of the pause in US intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine, Trump replied: “I actually think he is doing what anybody else would do.”

 Mark Mazzetti at NYT:

In early 2017, American intelligence agencies delivered an unequivocal judgment about why President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had ordered a sprawling effort to sabotage the recent American presidential election.

Mr. Putin wanted to cripple the faith Americans have in their own elections, they found, and to undermine a United States-led “liberal world order” that the Russians see as a threat to their security. As a way to achieve this goal, the assessment found, Russia worked to help Donald J. Trump win the election.

Eight years later, Mr. Trump sat in the Oval Office for a blustery meeting with President Voldymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and rendered, once again, his own judgment on that period. There was no Russian sabotage, just a “phony witch hunt” of which both he and Mr. Putin were victims.

“Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me,” he said.

The statement was a tell. The president sees common cause with Mr. Putin, a merging of interests forged through battles against those he believes are his and Mr. Putin’s mutual adversaries — including Democratic lawmakers, European leaders and a spectral “deep state” inside the U.S. government.

...

This is a world turned upside down for Susan Miller, the former head of counterintelligence at the C.I.A., who led the agency’s 2017 intelligence assessment on Russian election interference.

Ms. Miller said in an interview that she thinks Mr. Trump’s affinity for the Russian president boils down to “autocrat envy”— that he covets the power Mr. Putin has to make decisions in Russia without any constraints.

“Trump likes Putin because Putin has control over his country,” she said. “And Trump wants control over his country.”