Some Hill Republicans Edge Way from Trum,p

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Along with war and inflation, Trump's corruption is bringing down the GOP.  Some lawmakers are starting to act.

Olivia Diaz st NYT:

A Republican senator on Tuesday called for the Senate to investigate whether Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, exploited his access to his father for personal gain, spurred by reports that a Russian oligarch funded a lavish wedding after-party for the younger Mr. Trump.

In a three-page letter, Senator John Curtis, Republican of Utah, urged the Judiciary Committee to subpoena Donald Trump Jr., after it was revealed that a Russian businessman with ties to the Kremlin paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for the festivities on an island in the Bahamas this year.

Issuing such a subpoena would be exceedingly unlikely by the Republican-led panel, and top Republicans would not say on Tuesday whether they planned to take action. But the request by Mr. Curtis marked a rare instance of a G.O.P. lawmaker daring to challenge the president.

The president has said that his son would repay the Russian businessman, Umar Kremlev, for what he called a wedding gift. But Mr. Curtis rejected that characterization.

“A toaster is a wedding gift,” the senator said in a social media post. “A private-island party paid for by a Putin-connected oligarch is something else. Republicans nearly wore out the subpoena machine investigating Hunter Biden’s foreign relationships. We should not unplug it now.”

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The Utah Republican’s call for an inquiry came as a growing group of Republicans has become more emboldened about breaking with the president ahead of November’s elections. Representative Ashley Hinson of Iowa, a Republican running for the Senate, called on Mr. Trump on Monday to end the war with Iran. That came just days after two other G.O.P. lawmakers from Iowa who are battling for re-election, Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, crossed party lines to help push through a Democratic measure directing Mr. Trump to halt the conflict.

Late conversion does not always work, however.

Mariana Alfaro at WP

In South Florida, Rep. María Elvira Salazar’s latest campaign ad seems to be all voters can talk about.

The Republican’s video, released last week, was shot in front of the White House, not in the sun-blazed streets of Miami-Dade County. Though aimed at frustrated voters, it was framed as a direct appeal to President Donald Trump.

“Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,” Salazar says while looking directly at the camera. She goes on to tell Trump that his advisers are giving him bad advice, and that his immigration policies are weakening Republicans’ standing with the Latino voters who helped power GOP gains in 2024.

But many Latino voters in Salazar’s district said she has misread their sentiment and that their support for Trump has not wavered. Their support for their congresswoman, however, has waned, they said — and the ad did nothing to restore their confidence.

“She’s out of line,” said Hector Rubio, a resident of Miami’s wealthy enclave of Key Biscayne. Rubio, a longtime Republican voter who supported Salazar in the past three races, said in Spanish that Trump “is doing what he can, and he could do even more.” As he watched his wife shop in the neighborhood’s busy farmers market on Saturday morning, Rubio advised Salazar to stick close to Trump.

Even those who agreed with Salazar’s message seemed to find fault in it, with many saying the lawmaker should have made her appeal to Trump earlier.

“Her blind support of Trump has me very disturbed. She’s not thinking for herself,” said Charles Parsons, 83, another Key Biscayne resident who voted for Salazar in the past but said Saturday that he will not support her this year, even though he plans to vote for other Florida Republicans on the ballot. “All she’s thinking about is her political survival, and this ad … does nothing more than exacerbate the wound for me.”

"We're gonna get crushed"

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging. Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

Mychael Schnell at MS NOW:

There are just six weeks to go until the midterm elections. The national average for a gallon of gas is just a couple cents short of $4.50. Diesel has climbed above $6.50. And Republicans are officially freaking out.

Last week, House GOP lawmakers got into a heated shouting match over what to do about one of the party’s biggest vulnerabilities — those soaring gas prices — with a private meeting ending without a path forward.

Vice President JD Vance traveled to Kansas to campaign for Republicans on the ballot, a sign of the increasingly competitive environment even in reliably red territories. And after months of speculation that he may not spend, President Donald Trump is unleashing tens of millions of dollars from his super PAC, trying to give struggling candidates a late boost.

Publicly, Republicans are putting on a brave face, insisting that Democratic dreams of a wave election are far from certain. But privately, GOP lawmakers say they see the writing on the wall, recognizing that even some relatively safe districts could be vulnerable.

“We’re gonna get crushed,” one House Republican told MS NOW. “The only question is by how much.”

This GOP lawmaker, who was granted anonymity to discuss the internal dynamics, called this midterm cycle “a gasoline and ground beef election.”

“And when you’ve got ground beef at $9 a pound and diesel at $6.50 to $7.50. We’re getting screwed,” the member said.

Another House Republican, who was also granted anonymity, told MS NOW that if you’re a Republican and you’re not concerned, “you’re stupid.”

“On the macro level, yes, they’re concerned, of course they should be,” the lawmaker said. “But is there still hope? Absolutely. Are many of these races within striking distance? They are, if you believe polling.”

That anxiety for Republicans is taking hold with just 42 days until the midterms, and polls showing Democrats with a solid advantage nationally.

As Fall Begins

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

Bruce Mehlman:

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1. Diesel Price/Gal: January forecast $3.41. September reality $6.39.

2. Midterm Prospects: In January, Dems had an 18% shot at the Senate per Kalshi. On Friday it hit 60%, and Dems’ generic ballot lead doubled.

Sources: RCP generic ballot poll aggregation; Kalshi (Senate & House)

3. The Fed: In February, markets bet on a cut. In September, the Fed hiked. Today 87% predict another hike this year.

Trump's Self-Sabotage

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

That said, the messaging is pretty bad, too.

Aaron Blake at CNN on Trump's self-sabotage:

Polling in recent months has shown:

• 67% of Americans said he doesn’t carefully consider important decisions.
• 71% said he’s not “even-tempered.”
• And more than 7 in 10 adults and registered voters said he doesn’t even have a plan for the Iran war, according to both Fox News and CNN polling.

And in the runup to the 2026 midterm elections, he’s doing very little to disabuse people of these notions.

Trump’s offer of $5,000 to every adult US citizen if Republicans keep their House and Senate majorities is certainly a quid pro quo. Registered voters say 66%-18% that it’s “inappropriate.”

His joke-y threat Wednesday to withhold disaster aid from North Carolina if it elects a Democratic senator is also eyebrow-raising. Trump said he was kidding, but his track record makes clear his administration has discriminated against blue states on such things. And it’s a pretty unfunny thing to even joke about.

His tale ahead of the 9/11 anniversary about firefighters carrying him away amid fears of a building collapse was unconfirmed and misleading at best, as CNN’s Daniel Dale wrote. And to the extent the story is embellished, it sounds a lot like the president stealing valor.

Trump also claimed this week that the 2024 assassination attempt against him in Butler, Pennsylvania, was “a Democrat Plot, to get me out of the Election” — an explosive claim, if there were any truth to it. But there remains no evidence that any Democrats were involved and he didn’t provide any more detail. Indeed, attempted assassin Thomas Crooks was a registered Republican. And even the same day as Trump’s comments, FBI Director Kash Patel testified that there was “no evidence” that Crooks “was literally even speaking to any other human being other than his parents.”

Trump repeatedly threatened to halt large portions of US foreign trade — including with all countries with whom the US has a trade deficit — if the Federal Reserve doesn’t lower interest rates. “If we stop trading with every country that we have a deficit with, which is most of them, and which would be very easy to do, we’d make at least $1.5 trillion a year,” Trump claimed Wednesday in North Carolina. That logic makes no sense.

By Friday, Trump suddenly announced he was “banning” CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House “effective immediately,” catching even some of his own staff off guard. A CNN reporter was denied access to White House grounds Saturday morning and her press pass was seized. A reporter for Politico and a reporter and photographer for MS NOW were also denied access.

Trump Kinda Knows What's Coming

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

Natalie Allison and Isaac Arnsdorf at WP:

In interviews and speeches, President Donald Trump has maintained that midterm politics don’t affect his decisions on Iran, that the war has been worth the cost, and that he would do it all over again despite Republicans bracing for defeat in November.

But in some private conversation with advisers, Trump has signaled that he understands his decisions on the war have contributed to the especially poor political environment his party faces — making the president more intent on helping Republicans mitigate the expected losses.

Trump in recent weeks has become sober about the gravity of the political situation, listening intently as he is presented with often discouraging polling, according to four people with knowledge of his recent comments, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. That shift has prompted him to take more action on the midterms — pledging to stump for candidates and opening his war chest in competitive races, for example — although it remains to be seen how effectively Republicans can gain ground over the next six weeks.

Trump has long dismissed unfavorable polls, fastening his attention on surveys that present him in an artificially positive light. He often says that negative surveys are fake and not to be believed. Increasingly, however, he has accepted his team’s polling that shows his and his party’s poor standing with voters, his advisers say.

Several of Trump’s advisers said they had become “increasingly blunt” with him, as one put it, and that in recent weeks he was listening to them about the electoral reality the GOP faces. It didn’t always translate to a good mood for Trump.

 

Pre-Election House Turnover

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Drew DeSilver at Pew:

With primary season in the United States now over, control of the House of Representatives is still very much up for grabs. But before a single general-election vote has been tallied, 74 House members are already heading out the door – more than before any general election since 1992.

Near-record number of House members already on their way out the door
Number of House members who lost or gave up their seats

As of now, 42 Republicans and 32 Democrats won’t be returning to the House next year. That’s because they ran or are running for some other office instead; failed to win their primaries; resigned and haven’t been replaced via special election; or simply decided to retire from the House.

In 1992, 86 members were on their way out before the general election – more than in any election since. That election year was the first after House districts were redrawn following the 1990 census, which on its own created churn as states gained or lost seats and many incumbents found themselves in unfamiliar territory. In addition, the House banking scandal fueled widespread public outrage. In the end, 110 members either gave up or lost their seats, including 24 losses in the general election.About this research

This Pew Research Center analysis looks at how many U.S. House members have lost or given up their seats during primary season and how that compares with previous election cycles.

We looked at the outcomes of every individual House race for each election year since 1992 (the modern record for House turnover). For each year, we determined whether each incumbent sought reelection; ran for some other office instead; won or lost their primary; and won or lost the general election.

We treated representatives elected in special elections before the general election the same as other incumbents. We counted House members who resigned, died, or were expelled and whose seats had not been filled by special election before the general election as non-returning incumbents.

A notable driver of this year’s departures is the 28 members who chose to run for other offices rather than seek reelection. That’s the most in any election cycle we studied. By comparison, only 15 House members ran for other offices in the record-turnover year of 1992.

Darkening Skies for the GOP

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

Reid J. Epstein and Shane Goldmacher at NYT:

Mr. Trump’s diminished standing, as well as voter anger about high prices brought on by tariffs and the war with Iran, is causing serious problems for Republicans across the map. And economic trends appear to be going the wrong way for the party.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, which will drive up the cost of borrowing at a time many voters are already paying high rates for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debts. Mr. Trump has said not to expect gas price relief before the midterms, with the nation’s strategic petroleum reserves at a 44-year low.

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A national poll released this week by The New York Times and Siena University found that Democrats entered the fall with an advantage of nearly nine percentage points over Republicans on the congressional ballot — an edge similar to 2018, the last time there was a so-called blue wave.

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The rising price of diesel is hitting farm states especially hard, and Republicans like Mr. Marshall are rushing to show that they are trying to do something about it. This week, he wrote a public letter to the agriculture secretary urging the Trump administration to provide relief for farmers.

  Evan Halper, Rachel Chason and Joyce Sohyun Lee at WP:

Because of the shortage of crude oil and the damage the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have inflicted on refineries that turn it into diesel and gasoline, market analysts are warning that fresh price shocks are about to hit motorists.

Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser for Gulf Oil, predicted on X that Wednesday would “see staggering increases at the pump for both gasoline & diesel.”

“Fuel margins have yet to catch up with previous wholesale hikes,” he wrote. “Watch for huge increases in Great Lakes and Rocky Mountain states in particular.”

“Buckle up,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at the price-tracking platform GasBuddy, wrote Wednesday morning. “Gas and diesel look set for a spike over the next 48 hours, hardest in parts of the nation’s interior.”

Gas prices are also shooting up particularly fast in the political battleground states of the Midwest, where rising crude prices have been compounded by a power outage at the ExxonMobil Joliet refinery near Chicago, which typically produces 11 million gallons of gasoline and diesel per day and is a crucial supplier for the region.

By early afternoon Wednesday, according to De Haan’s tracking of real-time data, the price for a gallon of regular had jumped by 30 cents from the day before in Lawrence County, Ohio, and Edwardsburg, Michigan. It was up 28 cents in Des Moines and 26 cents in Belmont County, Ohio.