The Hits Keep Coming

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

JILL COLVIN and LINLEY SANDERS at AP:

Americans are deeply frustrated with President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy and rising prices, with most panning his performance and blaming his policies as higher costs threaten his party’s chances in November.

A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that only 17% of U.S. adults approve of the Republican president’s handling of the cost of living. Just 26% approve of his handling of the economy overall, marking a new low.

A majority, 65%, of U.S. adults now blame Trump’s policies for persistently high costs more than factors outside of his control, signaling growing weariness over his aggressive use of tariffs and continued unhappiness with the war with Iran.

Hans Nichols at Axios:

Between the lines: Republicans decided against breaking for an early recess last week.The biggest thing to show for it: A historic — and bipartisan — college sports package that doesn't do much for those defending their seats in November. It faces long odds in the House.

 Otherwise it was a week of pain:

• Failed votes: A vote addressing Americans' concerns about data centers driving up energy costs failed today, as did another to curb congressional stock trades and enforce voter IDs.
• A line of attack that backfired: A major hearing with Jack Smith was overshadowed by a failed attempt by Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) to link the special counsel and Atlanta prosecutor Fani Willis.
• The Trump issue: Republicans have been tiptoeing around whether Trump's unpopularity will hurt the party in November, only for Texas nominee Ken Paxton to be caught blaming Trump's midterm convention for hurting his polling.
• NRSC Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) said Paxton's analysis was "just wrong" and called the convention "a boost in the right direction."

Isaac Arnsdorf at WP:

Now, as dissatisfaction grows with Trump’s economic performance, questions about how he and his family profit from the presidency have taken on more bite. Some of the loudest complaints are coming from young, male crypto enthusiasts who were initially energized by candidate Trump’s embrace of the industry — and now are better equipped than the average voter to understand the ventures that earned the president $1.4 billion last year.

 ...

“What they basically did was a money grab,” said David from South Carolina, a participant in a focus group of independent and moderate 18-to-24-year-olds conducted this year for the Bulwark’s Focus Group podcast. “Why does he need to keep doing it? He’s literally a billionaire. Like, how much more money does he need?” The Washington Post is identifying participants in the focus group only by their first names in accordance with the ground rules for the session.

Six out of nine of the young men on that panel said they had heard of Trump’s memecoin. In another focus group, all eight had. The participants referenced a meme of a “Trump” playing card that cuts your portfolio by half and a viral, unverified story about a young man who lost his inheritance by betting on the Trump coin.

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Trump won 43 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds in 2024, according to exit polls. Last month, his approval rating with voters under 30 dropped to 19 percent in a Fox News poll, which found 63 percent saying they would vote for a Democrat for Congress.

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“I always supported Trump, and he promised that he would be the crypto president,” Pinto said. “I was under the impression that would be for bitcoin — I never thought he would launch his own token.”

“The whole thing is a rug pull,” he added, using crypto slang for a scheme where someone creates a token, hypes it up and then cashes out.

In addition to his memecoins, Trump also owns a stake, the exact size of which is undisclosed, in World Liberty Financial, a crypto venture set up by his sons alongside the sons of Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff. The company offers stablecoins, marketing itself as a way around conventional banking.

The Corruption Issue

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Along with war and inflation, Trump's corruption is bringing down the GOP.

Dan Merica at WP:

Democrats across the country are coalescing around a closing message in the midterm elections that accuses Republicans of flagrant corruption, tying the attack to the billions President Donald Trump has made during his second term and arguing that, unlike in the past, this issue is costing voters money.

The president made more than $1.4 billion from cryptocurrency alone in 2025. Over one dozen companies with investment funds tied to Trump’s sons amassed $3.2 billion in federal contracts, loans and investments. And Trump says his son recently paid back the well-connected Russian businessman who funded his wedding celebrations.

Voters’ feelings that politicians are corrupt have grown more prevalent in recent years. Nearly 90 percent of U.S. adults said corruption was widespread in government, according to a Gallup poll released this month, a 10-point jump from last year.
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But the difference in Democratic messaging this year is that the party is linking headlines about the Trump family’s growing wealth with the way people feel like costs are hurting them every day.

“Trump’s corruption has really put the issue front and center,” said Lauren French, a spokesperson for the Senate Majority PAC, the top Democratic super PAC focused on taking back the legislative chamber. “What we are seeing is if the 2018 elections were a response to the chaos of Trump 1, these elections are about the corruption of Trump 2.”

The focus has been particularly pronounced in Senate races, where French’s group has advised political operatives nationwide to “amplify” their focus on corruption by tying it to rising costs.

In a strategy memo sent to operatives this week, and shared first with this newsletter, the super PAC reports that its research shows voters believe “corruption is a problem that personally raises their own costs, and the top reason by far is that it drives up the price of everyday goods: gas, groceries, utilities, housing.” The group advises candidates to keep costs front and center while focused on corruption, but suggests labeling Republicans as “corrupt politicians” while linking their opponents to what voters view as Trump’s own self-dealing.

The group has put this strategy behind the tens of millions they plan to spend on ads this cycle.

Timelines and Economic Benefits

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

President Donald Trump is steeling Republicans for a tough midterm contest.

The president today unveiled a plan to build a massive, $15 billion steel plant in Iowa — a major job creator he cast as an example of his success in reshoring domestic manufacturing as economic anxieties snarl his party’s prospects in the midterms. The plant — the largest in U.S. history — will be built by the Minnesota-based Mesabi Metallics and support more than 6,000 construction jobs and nearly 2,000 manufacturing and mining jobs, adding $95 billion to the U.S. economy, Trump said during a news conference in the Oval Office.

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The struggle for Trump is that the timelines of factory building — and the jobs they create — rarely align with the country’s biennial election cycle. The Iowa plant isn’t expected to begin producing steel until 2030 — during the first midterm year for Trump’s successor. Other major manufacturing announcements the White House has made, including multiple auto plants in Michigan, aren’t expected to commence production until 2027, 2028 and 2029.

Compare that to the much more reactive time frames during which two of Trump’s other top presidential priorities — heaping restrictive tariffs on countries he claims have treated the U.S. unfairly and launching an unpopular war with Iran he’s been unable to end — have rattled global markets and sent domestic prices soaring.

Flailing

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

Trump keeps making things worse for his party.  In Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina, he supported the nomination of dubious Republican candidates who could lose otherwise winnable races.  In Florida, he is attacking a Republican who faces a tight contest.

He is flailing.

Riley Beggin at WP:

First came a proposal to permit tariff-free beef imports, but that immediately angered America’s farmers and ranchers.

Then came a plan to ban exports of domestic diesel fuel, but that met with pushback from major oil companies.

In between, President Donald Trump pitched the idea of simply cutting $5,000 checks to adult Americans frustrated, polls show, by high food and gas prices — if the GOP maintains control of Congress. But that idea, too, has come under fire, even from some Republican lawmakers concerned about the potential hit to the budget deficit.

With just five weeks until Election Day, the White House has thrown out multiple ideas for combating persistent inflation, which has outpaced wage growth. But experts say it is unclear whether Trump can execute any policy that would placate inflation-weary voters and help the GOP maintain control of Congress.

“These are symptoms of panic in the administration about problems that they have in part created,” said David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution.

Inflation has been running over the Federal Reserve’s target rate since 2021, but an array of Trump policies have fed the problem, economists say. Trump’s decision to join Israel in going to war with Iran has disrupted the global oil supply, leading to elevated energy rates. His tariffs have produced higher prices for some imported goods. And his administration’s immigration crackdown has made low-cost labor harder to find, keeping price pressures on domestic companies high.

Trump's Self-Sabotage Continues

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

Trump keeps making things worse for his party.  In Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina, he supported the nomination of dubious Republican candidates who could lose otherwise winnable races.  In Florida, he is attacking a Republican who faces a tight contest.

Aleena Fayaz  at CNN:

President Donald Trump appeared to intensify his irritation with GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar on Saturday evening after reposting a series of social media attacks on the congresswoman who made waves last week for breaking with him on his immigration tactics.

The president shared in quick succession on Truth Social at least 14 posts from other users critical of Salazar, who is facing a tough reelection race in Florida as Republicans’ midterm fortunes decline.

“She is nothing but a back stabber. I’m glad the Latino support hasn’t wavered,” one user wrote in a post shared by Trump.

Another user slammed the congresswoman: “She wants amnesty for the ppl how criminally crossed our borders defying our laws.”

“So we need a NEW Republican to Replace Salazar,” different user said

Jacob Ogles at Florida Politics:

One of the nation’s top political prognosticators sees two Republican incumbents in trouble in Florida, and one open race tied. Based on Cook Political Report’s current ratings, it’s possible Republicans net no seats from a new congressional map.

The top election rater shifted 15 House races in Democrats’ direction. That included saying Republican U.S. Reps. Anna Paulina Luna in Florida’s 13th Congressional District and María Elvira Salazar in Florida’s 27th Congressional District now sit in “Lean R” territory.

That means they hold edges on respective Democratic challengers Leela Gray and Eliott Rodriguez, but are more imperiled in a climate increasingly hostile to Republicans.

 

Craptastic Outlook for GOP

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Along with war and inflation, Trump's corruption is bringing down the GOP.  Some lawmakers are starting to act.

Marc Caputo, Hans Nichols, Alex Isenstadt at Axios:

This week,

• Trump's disapproval rating hit 60.4%, the worst mark of his two terms in office, including the aftermath of the Jan. 6 riots.
• Gas prices are over $4 a gallon, diesel has hit $6.50 and no relief is in sight.
• Seven months in, the U.S. is locked in a standoff with Iran with no apparent exit strategy.
• Grocery prices are still rising year over year.
• Mortgage rates hit 7%.
• And the cost of borrowing across the economy continues to climb.

Enter the elections: The problems for the GOP are everywhere. In the battle for the Senate, once ruby-red Texas looks more in play than ever, and Florida isn't far behind. Nor is Alaska. North Carolina and Georgia look lost. Maine is problematic.The Senate GOP campaign arm is begging donors for another $8.9 million to defend Senate seats in three states that Trump won by double digits two years ago — Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
"We're having problems just getting Republican voters to respond to polls," said one national Republican pollster. "At what point do we think these guys aren't showing up at the actual polls on Election Day?"
...

On the House side, the Cook Political Report moved 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday.Democrats need to net just three seats to win control of the chamber.
Republicans are now playing defense deep in red America. GOP-aligned groups are spending money in more than a half-dozen districts that Trump won by at least 15 points in 2024.

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What they're saying: "While many have long predicted that Democrats will enjoy a 'blue wave' election, I think of it more as a 'red undertow,' which will pull many Republicans under and significantly trim the margins for many others, said the Cook Report's founder and top elections handicapper Charlie Cook.That's an implied reminder that Democrats' favorability ratings aren't good; they're just better than Republicans'.

"Over the last 90 days," Cook added, "President Trump's political standing has transitioned from very unpopular to toxic and now to radioactive."

Said another consultant involved with races across the country: "Things were bad. But they started to go worse recently and if it keeps on this track, it's gonna be real bad."

The environment is starting to rival the second midterm election of President George W. Bush's tenure in 2006, the consultant said, amid the Iraq war and the botched response to Hurricane Katrina. Republicans lost control of both chambers after losing 30 House seats and six Senate seats."The numbers are somewhere between shitabulous and craptastic," a top Republican advising several federal races across the country told Axios. "It looks worse than 2018 now. Trump is heading to Bush 2006 levels."

State of play: More and more lately, Republican incumbents are running for cover from Trump.In Iowa, two House Republicans have switched their positions to support a war powers resolution on Iran.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, who rode the 1980 Republican wave to the Senate, and Rep. Ashley Hinson, who's running for Iowa's other Senate seat, are demanding restrictions on diesel exports.

Panic Mode

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Along with war and inflation, Trump's corruption is bringing down the GOP.  Some lawmakers are starting to act.

Megan Messerly, Alex Gangitano and Myah Ward at POLITICO:

Six weeks until the midterm elections, administration officials are pulling policy levers they otherwise might not to help vulnerable Republicans in key congressional races. They’re weighing a 90-day ban on diesel exports in an effort to drive down energy prices, considering backpedaling on a plan to import foreign beef and giving candidates wiggle room to criticize a war with Iran that President Donald Trump continues to stress was necessary to prevent the country from obtaining nuclear weapons.


Trump, never shy about attacking Republicans who disagree with him, has recently swallowed dissent so long as candidates criticize his policies and not him personally. Some campaigns are even giving the White House a heads up before staking out positions different from the president’s.

“More often times than not, a candidate or an elected official will call the White House and ask how to do it, because they are not interested in going against the president,” said one person familiar with the White House’s thinking, who like others in this story was granted anonymity to describe private conversations.

The White House’s latest posture represents a remarkable change for an administration that in its decisionmaking has often put Trump’s priorities ahead of what would be politically advantageous to Republicans in tight elections. But inside the West Wing, a new reality — informed in part by polling — has taken hold as the administration grapples with far more competitive races than had been expected only a few months ago.