Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. The real purpose of the "Department of Government Efficiency" was not to reduce deficits -- which it failed to do-- but to punish and disable perceived political enemies.
The establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) during Trump’s second term marks an expansion of presidential authority over federal agencies. This institutional development provides a rare opportunity to examine whether presidents can leverage politicized agencies for political and electoral goals. Drawing on detailed procurement data and DOGE’s cancellation records, we find that Republican donor firms were less likely to face cancellations, whereas firms donating to Democrats were more likely to lose contracts. Cancellations were less frequent in Republican-held districts, conservative agencies, and states favorable to the Republican Party. Leveraging the timing of the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election, we use a difference-in-differences design to show that Wisconsin-based firms experienced a sharp increase in cancellations following the election, underscoring the strategic timing of DOGE’s operations. Our findings shed new light on the consequences of agency politicization and align with the Trump administration’s effort to consolidate its support base.
