Three Scenarios for the Midterm Congressional Elections

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Over the past decade, polling problems—especially the plunge in response rates—have made election forecasting harder.  So instead of a single prediction, here are three plausible scenarios: rare, medium, and well-done.

Rare.  In this scenario, the polls have systematically underestimated the GOP vote, and the Democratic advantage in early and mail ballots abruptly vanishes as Republicans surge on Election Day.

• House:  Democrats pick up about a dozen seats, enough to win a majority but below expectations.
• Senate:  Democrats lose Michigan and win North Carolina, for no net change.  Republicans retain control of the chamber.

Medium.  The polls and early-vote estimates are roughly on track, and 2026 is a good Democratic year.

• House: Democrats gain about 20 seats, giving the new majority leadership some cushion on close roll-call votes.
• Senate:  Democrats win Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and either Kansas or Alaska.  A net gain of five gives them a 52-seat Fetterman-proof majority.

Well-Done.  Surges among Black, Hispanic, and young voters lead to Democratic overperformance.

• House: Democrats gain 25 seats or more.
• Senate:  Democrats win Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina. They also score a huge upset in Mississippi or Louisiana.  The new Democratic Senate majority is 55 seats.  Independent surprise victories in Nebraska or Idaho bring the GOP total down to 44.

My guess is that "well-done" is more likely than "rare," but uncertainty is the watchword.

The Dan Sullivan Decoy Scheme

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Two Dan Sullivans are on the ballot in the Alaska Senate race. DOJ is suing to block certification if Senator Sullivan loses.

Kellen Browning at NYT:

In the summer of 2025, a staffer for Mary Peltola, the Alaska Democrat who was eyeing a run for Senate, received unusual instructions from top campaign aides: Find as many people named Dan Sullivan in Alaska as you can.

The staffer complied, combing through voter records to produce a list of Dan Sullivans from across the state.

This was no random request. Dan S. Sullivan is the name of the state’s Republican senator. And if the Peltola campaign or its allies could track down and persuade another Dan Sullivan to run for Senate, the confusion could cost the senator crucial votes on the state’s unusual, four-person ballot.

The plan worked. This spring, a retired teacher from a tiny fishing village along the Alaska Panhandle, reachable only by air and sea, announced his candidacy for Senate. His name was Dan J. Sullivan.

The Peltola campaign has repeatedly denied any involvement in his candidacy. But The Times has found, based on interviews and text messages, along with documents prepared for a potential lawsuit against the campaign, that not only did Ms. Peltola’s team work with people trying to recruit Mr. Sullivan to run for Senate, but the effort was much broader. The group worked to coax other would-be spoilers into the race, to dilute the incumbent’s support and help catapult the Democrat to victory.

CNN:

The Republican governor has ordered an investigation into whether criminal charges or civil penalties should be brought over alleged Democratic efforts to confuse voters by recruiting a Senate candidate with the same name as incumbent Dan Sullivan. Both Mary Peltola’s campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee denied involvement in the reported plan.

 

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