Socialists and Primaries

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. The 2026 environment is very favorable for the Democrats, but a hard leftward shift could spoil their chances.

 Aaron Blake and Eric Bradner at CNN:

The progressive effort to remake the Democratic Party triumphed in battleground Michigan on Tuesday, as former public health official Abdul El-Sayed defeated the more moderate Rep. Haley Stevens — and the party’s establishment, which had rallied behind her.

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It’s difficult to completely isolate the Israel and AIPAC factor. And AIPAC did get a win Tuesday, having spent more than $2 million to help Missouri Rep. Wesley Bell easily fend off democratic socialist former Rep. Cori Bush.

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A pair of democratic socialists also won key House primaries in Michigan.

Perhaps the biggest one was climate activist William Lawrence’s win in the 7th district. Lawrence prevailed after two more establishment-oriented candidates — former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink and Navy SEAL veteran Matt Maasdam — split the rest of the vote.

 And this is a battleground general election race. That means the Sanders wing of the party now confronts major proving grounds in both the Senate race and a very important House race.

Lawrence’s campaign was heavily criticized by the Congressional Black Caucus and even House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, after the Huffington Post published Lawrence’s 2024 remarks saying that Black political leaders “defang the White left.”

CNN is also now projecting that democratic socialist state Rep. Donavan McKinney ousted Rep. Shri Thanedar in the Detroit-based 13th district.

The result might have been less about policies than racial representation — the majority-Black city had recently been without a Black representative for the first time since the 1950s — but it’s still a win for DSA.

 

The Economist on the DSA

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. The 2026 environment is very favorable for the Democrats, but a hard leftward shift could spoil their chances.

The Economist on the DSA:

Their number has swelled more than twentyfold in the past decade, but still totals only around 120,000. The prime target is the downwardly mobile millennial. Michael Lange, a political analyst and DSA member, says the question to identify prospective joiners is: “Are you under 50 and do you rent?” At its latest survey, in 2021, four-fifths of DSA members over the age of 25 had a college degree—twice the share of American adults. A third had a postgraduate degree and a third were gay or queer. Ashik Siddique, a co-chair of the DSA, says it is the largest queer membership organisation in the country. Members found to be working as cops can be expelled.

Therein lies the paradox: a group that claims to represent the working class looks and speaks nothing like it. On all manner of social issues, from trans rights to policing to immigration to abortion, college graduates are far to the left of blue-collar workers. Take protections for trans people, a plank of the DSA platform. Only half of working-class people tell pollsters that it should be illegal to fire or evict a trans person, compared with 82% of left-leaning college grads.

On economics, too, working-class and older voters tend to be more sceptical of the sweeping changes promised by the young new left, says Adam Carlson, a pollster. Mr Siddique, sounding a bit like Lenin, says the DSA’s task is to cultivate a working-class consciousness. The wrinkle is that working-class voters believe strongly in merit and hard work, notes Nicholas Jacobs, a political scientist at Colby College. They tend to be less enthusiastic about expanding government services while distrusting pointy-headed types who use words like “systemic”. Tellingly, in polling, only white left-leaning college grads count “tax the rich” as a top-ten priority.

Socialism as a Liability

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. The 2026 environment is very favorable for the Democrats, but a hard leftward shift could spoil their chances.

Thomas B. Edsall at NYT:

A Washington Post-Ipsos poll released last Thursday illustrated the problems posed by the rise of the D.S.A.

A solid 75 percent of Democratic voters said they would consider voting for “a candidate for president who identifies as a democratic socialist.” Among all registered voters, however, a majority (54-42) said that they would not consider supporting a democratic socialist presidential candidate, driven by Republicans (88 percent no, 10 percent yes) and independents and other voters (54 to 36).

Even more decisive were the responses when the Post-Ipsos poll asked, “How much do you like or dislike political leaders who identify as democratic socialists?” A third (33 percent) of Democrats said they like democratic socialist political leaders and 10 percent said they dislike them. Among all voters, in contrast, 42 percent said they disliked democratic socialist political leaders and 17 percent said they liked such politicians — Republicans 70 dislike to 3 like and independents and other voters 30 to 12.

In other words, when it comes to socialism, Democratic voters are the outliers, in opposition to the views of voters overall and especially to the views of independents and Republicans.

In terms of actual politics, the outlier status of democratic socialism reflects the concentration of socialist candidates’ success in deep-blue urban areas where Republicans have little or no chance of winning. At the same time, Republicans are relishing the prospect of capitalizing on voters’ distrust of socialism in purple districts and states, even going so far as to financially support the further-left candidate in Democratic primaries.

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Michael Kistner, a political scientist at Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government and Public Service and an author of research on these issues with Canes-Wrone, wrote that his view “is that the increasing prominence of D.S.A. and Justice Democrats likely hurts Democratic candidates’ standing with moderate and independent voters on the margin. The reason is not performance in these candidates’ own races, should they win the nomination. Typically these candidates win in solidly Democratic districts. The more salient concern is how these candidates affect the party brand of Democrats nationally.”

There is “good evidence,” Kistner argued, “that party brands — the general reputation and perceived positioning of the party, as seen by the general public — are real and affect election outcomes.”

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In perhaps the sharpest critique of D.S.A. and other groups on the Democratic left, Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at the centrist think tank the Third Way, wrote by email responding to my query: “Since 2018, the moderate New Democrat Coalition Action Fund has managed to flip 50 House seats from red to blue. The D.S.A., Justice Democrats, Our Revolution and the Sunrise Movement can claim zero red-to-blue flipped seats in that time.”

 

 

Trump and Money Laundering

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Trump is abusing his power to enlarge his political empire.

William Marx at NPR:

Capital One bank has asked a federal judge to dismiss a lawsuit from the Trump Organization over the closure of hundreds of bank accounts back in 2021, arguing in new papers that the shutdowns were the product of a monthslong anti-money-laundering review — not retaliation for the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, as the Trump family businesses have claimed.

In a motion to dismiss the case filed Friday in a Florida federal court, Capital One's lawyers wrote that the bank's own filings and the Trump businesses' allegations "make clear that Capital One closed Plaintiffs' accounts for anti-money laundering ('AML') reasons."

The bank said the decision followed "months of analysis and a careful review" by its financial-crimes team, which it said was staffed by employees with "decades of law enforcement experience." But the filings suggest the Trump Organization and affiliated entities were given no opportunity to address any money-laundering or compliance concerns before the accounts' closures.

It's unclear if subsequent banks for the Trump Organization have ever raised money laundering concerns, or what steps the organization took in response to Capital One's allegations. The Trump Organization didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

The fight is one of several lawsuits Trump-aligned entities have brought against major banks since Trump returned to the White House.

Heritage, Groypers, and the Polluted Staff Pipeline

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration was full of ominous developments -- including a tranche of racist and anti-Semitic chats by prominent Young Republicans.  Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, defended Tucker Carlson after his softball interview with Nazi wannabe Nick Fuentes.

Kathy Gilsinan at POLITICO:

Conversations with four senior Republican congressional staffers, as well as think tank scholars, Heritage expats, academics who study think tanks and up-and-coming young Republicans reflected a widening generational split and mutual distrust over the issue.

“Everyone knows what the problem is: The organizations that bring young staffers to Washington, D.C. have spent the last decade prioritizing blind ideological loyalty instead of competence or intelligence,” said a senior GOP congressional staffer, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive personnel issues. “We have a generation of rabid, incompetent idiots.”

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“I think there is certainly a pipeline problem on the Republican side,” said E.J. Fagan, an associate professor at the University of Illinois Chicago and author of The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics. Even beyond foreign policy, Fagan said that “normie expertise” has been sidelined in favor of producing “chum for the conservative media machine,” at Heritage in particular. “You’re hiring a lot of people who don’t have the chops that they used to,” he said.

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The Heritage Foundation offers a case study in how conservative talent cultivation has traditionally worked, and how it’s changed in the Trump era — including through the accommodation of viewpoints once considered fringe on the right. The institution was a major feeder organization for GOP staff jobs in D.C. for decades. A 2024 Legistorm analysis found that nearly a third of GOP congressional offices employed a Heritage alum, and the institution’s own marketing materials claim the Trump administration has adopted 64 percent of its policy ideas. The Heritage spokesperson said there are 290 Heritage alumni serving in the current Trump administration, as well as 235 “staff/intern/program” alumni working on the Hill.

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Luke Coffey, now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, another conservative think tank, experienced the shift firsthand. “The Heritage I joined in 2012 was Reaganite,” he said. “The Heritage I left was more MAGA than Trump.” He said the emphasis on ideology had costs when it came to experience, citing an intern questionnaire that screened applicants for anti-abortion views. For an intern in the Middle East program, he said, “I wanted the guy or girl who studied abroad in Jordan and spoke intermediate Arabic and backpacked across Israel and believed in American leadership on the global stage. I didn’t really care where they stood on the pro-life or pro-choice debate.”

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The anxiety over groyperism in the GOP talent pool corresponds to a rise in antisemitism across the political spectrum, including among young conservatives. A Yale Youth survey found “extremely conservative” young people the most likely to agree with antisemitic sentiments such as “Jews in the United States have too much power.” A Manhattan Institute poll found that a full 25 percent of Republicans under 50 self-identified as having antisemitic views, and 31 percent as holding racist ones. Pew has asked different questions about young voters’ opinions of “the Israeli people,” which have declined across the board since 2022, though a majority of Republicans still view them favorably, compared to a minority of Democrats. (On the separate question of attitudes toward the Israeli government, it’s certainly clear that elected Republicans are far more supportive than their Democratic counterparts.)

 

Trump's Massive Shakedown

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Trump is abusing his power to enlarge his political empire.

Josh Dawsey, Dana Mattioli, Annie Linskey and  Emily Glazer at WSJ:

Almost every night in the White House, President Trump calls his fundraiser, Meredith O’Rourke, for an update.

Trump asks O’Rourke which companies and donors have cut checks and which haven’t, and for how much. He often asks her to make much larger financial requests than she was planning—for some donors the ask is $5 million, for others it is $50 million. And the president gives her names to call, often including people who have recently met with him, according to people with knowledge of the calls.

“This is very important to the president. He’s asked me to call you and ask you for this donation,” O’Rourke has relayed on phone calls with companies, persistently following up with them. In some calls, she has referred to Trump as the boss, saying “the boss wants this money.” In turn, Trump has called her the “princess of darkness” because she is such a “killer” with donors, according to people who have heard his comments.

SoftBank donated $50 million toward Trump’s presidential library. Apple cut a check for around $25 million toward his White House ballroom project, while Microsoft gave around $10 million and Amazon chipped in around $5 million, according to people familiar with the contributions. Meta Platforms recently gave $10 million to a Trump-aligned political committee, people familiar said, on top of a multimillion donation to the ballroom and a prior $22 million payment to the planned presidential library.

Trump stands out for taking personal control of the fundraising, and no sitting American president has ever raised these amounts for his pet projects. At the same time, companies have paid new attention to the White House as Trump has gotten involved in regulatory decisions that once were made by independent agencies, dramatically shifting the balance of power across Washington.

Trump has been demanding large checks from companies for a range of political and legacy projects—telling executives and lobbyists that their companies should give $25 million or $50 million. He has sometimes offered donors special access.

No laws prohibit presidents from raising unlimited sums of money for nonprofits, like the ones used for the ballroom and his presidential library, his super PAC or political issue committees. For most of these types of transactions, public disclosure of donors isn’t required and reporting on spending is infrequent.

All told, the second-term president has raised more than $800 million since returning to office, according to an updated Wall Street Journal analysis.

Tolerating Scandal

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. Oppo is part of the story.But scandal does not cut the way it used to.

Erin Doherty at POLITICO:

Americans are largely tolerant of scandals among politicians. But nobody is more willing to stick by an embattled candidate than a MAGA voter.

The POLITICO Poll finds President Donald Trump’s MAGA supporters are the most loyal of any group of voters — with majorities saying they would stick by GOP candidates confronted with an array of scandals, from a DUI conviction or accepting lobbyist gifts to more serious accusations including domestic violence, sexual assault and antisemitic social media posts.

Two-thirds of self-identified MAGA Trump voters say they would continue supporting a GOP candidate accused of sexual assault — 13 percentage points higher than the share of Trump 2024 voters writ large, which include those who do not identify as MAGA. By comparison, 40 percent of voters who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 would continue backing a Democratic candidate accused of sexual assault.

This article is part of an ongoing project from POLITICO and Public First, an independent polling company headquartered in London, to measure public opinion across a broad range of policy areas.


Seventy-two percent of MAGA Trump voters say they would stick with a GOP candidate accused of domestic violence, more than 10 percentage points higher than the overall share of Trump 2024 voters who would back a GOP candidate (61 percent). Thirty-nine percent of Harris voters say they’d stick with a Democrat accused of domestic violence.