Republicans Skittish About the Five Grand ... for Good Reason

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  Trump's $5,000 promise is not taking off.

Chris Stirewalt:

Consumers are already getting crushed by inflation, high interest rates and high prices. Bond traders are punishing Uncle Sam for becoming a fiscal basket case with a $40 trillion debt and not even concepts of a plan for what to do about it. Even the most cynical Republican lawmaker would be able to see how the hangover would be worse than the high — a lesson Democrats learned the hard way in the Biden era.

So, like the tariff bonuses and DOGE dividends Trump has promised voters before, the midterm payola probably falls into the familiar category of “stuff the president says.” But like his decision to try to rescue two struggling Atlantic City casinos by opening a third one, Trump loves to raise the stakes. Trying to pay off voters with money mortgaged against future generations is a little like using his creditors’ cash to bring in Michael Jackson for the grand opening of the Trump Taj Mahal.

But who is the target audience for the dubious dividend? It certainly isn’t conservatives, who are already feeling seasick from a wild fiscal ride with Trump so far. It can’t be progressives and liberals since, even if they liked the idea of Trump’s anarcho-Keynesianism, they wouldn’t believe his promises anyway. The customers Trump is trying to get through the doors of the GOP casino are those who a) think a massive debt-financed stimulus would be good and b) still tend to believe the things the president says.

The share of Americans who believe that Trump keeps his promises slid from a November 2024 high of 51 percent to 38 percent this spring, and given his many failed efforts to declare victory in the Iran war since then, one does not imagine that number has increased.

Are there enough voters who both a) believe Trump will actually deliver on his promise and b) think that it’s a good policy to lift Republicans’ chances to at least avoid a wipeout of the kind they faced in 2018? People do love free money, but the belated introduction of such a wild policy proposal makes it hard to predict. Certainly, Republicans running in suburban districts and states with large numbers of college-educated voters won’t look forward to explaining their thoughts on the debt bomb.

 Mira Bhakta at The Hill:

Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kans.) appeared to shift his opinion on President Trump’s $5,000 dividends announced earlier this week.

In a debate at the Kansas State Fair against Democratic opponent Adam Hamilton, a moderator asked both candidates if they supported the dividends, citing the proposal’s $1.2 trillion cost amid the growing national debt.

“I’m going to bring in all the information, and then make a decision,” he said. “But look, this is not the first time I’ve disagreed with President Trump, and it probably won’t be the last.”

“Instead, I said, I’m going to be focused on Kansas jobs. I’m going to be focused on protecting Kansas agriculture and the Kansas cattle industry,” he continued.

Marshall’s remark comes after his apparent support for the president’s proposal in social media post Wednesday.

 Meredith Lee Hill, Jason Beeferman and Mia McCarthy at POLITICO:

 Top Republican lawmakers had no idea President Donald Trump was going to promise $5,000 checks to every adult American so long as his party keeps control of Congress. Now, they’re grappling with how to handle the fallout.

GOP leaders have privately pushed back on similar Trump promises of giving money to Americans in the past year, according to four people granted anonymity to share details of closed-door meetings. Senior Republicans on Capitol Hill were blindsided by Trump’s Wednesday night announcement in Dallas, and are trying to manage lawmakers’ and voters’ expectations about a trillion-dollar-plus proposal they cannot deliver.



The only thing that I knew of was that he has this concept of a dividend of all Americans being able to share in the success of America,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, who appeared supportive of the idea, said in an interview on the sidelines of the party’s midterm convention. “But last night, no, I was just like you and everybody else when I went, ‘Oh, that’s interesting. Okay.’”

NRCC Chair Richard Hudson added in an interview: “First, I’d heard of it, so I want to talk to him and get some details before I comment.” Hudson said the idea was “exciting,” but he didn’t indicate the House GOP campaign arm would start touting the idea in ads for battleground candidates.

As for the chances of the measure passing Congress, Hudson responded: “Not this Congress. Because Democrats in the Senate will never go through with it.”

Republican leaders, indeed, don’t have the votes to pass such an offer this year, with some in the party questioning the legality of Trump effectively declaring he would pay for votes. GOP fiscal hawks and others also quickly shot it down.

And some Republicans worry Trump’s last-ditch move steps on their carefully laid messaging about the economic benefits of their major tax cuts package — benefits which have largely been erased by the Iran war and tariffs, according to five senior Republicans, who were also granted anonymity to speak candidly.

“It seems incredibly desperate,” said one of the House Republicans.

Losing Ground

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.  Those problems will affect the midterm far more than the GOP midterm "convention."

Deena Zaidi at CNBC:

Consumer prices rose 3.4% in August from a year earlier, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Average hourly earnings, meanwhile, increased just 3.1% over the same period, according to a separate BLS report released Friday. Real average hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation, fell 0.1% from July and were down 0.3% from a year earlier in August.

The gap between inflation and wage growth is a stark reminder that workers are losing purchasing power.

Roger Marshall gets shouted down when he attempts to gaslight Kansans about gas prices under Trump:

"The average cost of gasoline is less under President Trump than it was under Joe Biden."#KSSen #KSLeg pic.twitter.com/4q82UozvKd

— Kelsie Taggart (@kelsientaggart) September 12, 2026

The GOP's Reality Problems

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.  Those problems will affect the midterm far more than the GOP midterm "convention."

Gregory Schmidt at NYT:

Mounting fears that widening clashes in the Middle East could further disrupt energy supplies briefly pushed the price of oil to about $110 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. diesel prices rose above $6 a gallon.

Concerns over oil supplies, already heightened by the U.S. war against Iran, broadened this week with reports that the Houthi militia had seized a critical port on the Red Sea, presenting a new threat to shipping in the area.

The price of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, surged before easing to about $103 a barrel, after the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for global oil demand by 2.5 million barrels a day this year, from a drop of 1.6 million barrels a day it predicted last month.

“The continuing impasse in negotiations between the United States and Iran delays the prospect of a normalization of flows into next year,” it said, adding that demand for oil is expected to rebound in 2027, “narrowly offsetting this year’s losses.”

West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. standard, traded as high as $104 a barrel before falling to about $99.

But the jump in oil prices “pales in comparison with those for refined products, where market tightness is now most acute,” the I.E.A. wrote in its report.

The average price of a gallon of diesel fuel jumped to $6.06, according to the AAA motor club, a 60 percent rise since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. In response, Iran has effectively blocked most ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. During normal times, about a fifth of the world’s crude oil flows through the strait.

With assistance from the U.S. Navy, a few tankers have been able to get through, but Iran has signaled in recent days that it was willing to be more aggressive in exerting control over the strait.

Bread, Circuses, and Five Grand

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Caleb Razor at Politico:

President Donald Trump dropped a hot mess of a half-baked midterm promise in lawmakers’ laps last night.

Trump at the GOP’s convention pledged to send $5,000 to every adult in the U.S. if Republicans retain control of Congress in the midterms, Ashley Ahn reports. And while the crowd of thousands of his supporters gathered at Dallas’ American Airlines Center cheered the announcement, GOP fiscal hawks were balking at the effort before Trump even left the stage.
...

If the president followed through on such a plan, it would likely worsen inflation by further boosting consumer spending and supporting higher prices, which are already elevated due to the war in Iran. The dividend could also exacerbate a rise in longer-term borrowing costs for the U.S. government, which have been going up in part on fears the federal debt is growing unsustainable.

The move comes after months of Republicans pleading with Trump to focus his messaging — and fundraising war chest — on helping the party retain control of Capitol Hill come November.

Some House Republicans following the speech told Meredith Lee Hill the effort showed how desperate the president was in the last weeks of midterm campaigning.

“It’s a little late,” one House Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said.

Others may have been relieved that the president was touting a message aimed at affordability concerns at the top of voters’ minds.

...

Sen. Ted Cruz in an exclusive interview with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns after Trump’s speech, said he’d prefer to tie work requirements to the dividends, but added specifics would need to be worked through.

“$1.3 trillion dollars is a massive amount,” Cruz said, referring to his estimate for the plan. But, he said it’s less than if Democrats won back power and spent like “drunken sailors.”

Trump the Saboteur

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

In 2020, Trump's ineptitude cost the GOP control of both Georgia Senate seats, and thus control of the chamber.  He did the same in 2022.

Once again this year, Trump could directly cost the GOP control of the Senate.  

• In North Carolina, he attacked incumbent Thom Tillis, who would have been a heavy favorite for reelection.  Tillis withdrew, and Democrat Roy Cooper is likely to take the open seat.
• In Texas, John Cornyn could have cruised to victory.  Trump endorsed the crooked Ken Paxton, who could lose to Talarico.
• In Georgia, Governor Kemp could have defeated Ossoff.  But there was no way Trump would support someone who did not stand with him on election denialism.  Trump endorsed scandal-ridden Mike Collins, who will probably lose to Ossoff.

Stef Kight and Hans Nichols at Axios:

Zoom out: Trump has repeatedly forced Republicans to grapple with policies that aggravate their constituencies or collide with their own ideological convictions.His plan to import up to 300,000 metric tons of beef tariff-free for 90 days inflamed GOP lawmakers in red states. More than a dozen GOP senators publicly criticized the move, warning it would hurt American cattle ranchers.

Imposing higher tariffs on Canadian goods threatened to bring a trade war to two must-win border states: Maine and Michigan. [Not to mention Ohio and Iowa, too!] 

And his call Monday to target Canadian aircraft manufacturer Bombardier could have outsized economic implications in Kansas, a red state with an increasingly competitive Senate race. Trump ally Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) was forced to break with Trump over the call to boycott. Bombardier is a key employer in Kansas.

Republicans are taking an à la carte approach to data centers, which have suddenly become a political liability. Candidates in both parties have been scrambling to distance themselves from the industry.But Trump isn't brooking any nuance on the issue, calling communities that oppose data centers "backwards and poor." He doubled down four days later.

...

Trump is also restarting hostilities with Iran, dashing any GOP hopes that gas prices will drop before November.

People around Trump know he's self-destructive.  They don't even bother to push back anymore.  Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei at Axios:

For nearly a decade, Republicans acquiesced to nearly every Trump demand and idea — and rationalized it by saying his instincts proved smarter than theirs. Now, many no longer trust those instincts. But they find it just as futile to push back against virtually anything he wants.

• Start a war without an endgame? OK.
• Post a cartoon of you — wielding a hockey stick and sporting a Trump-branded USA jersey — towering over Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, sprawled on the ice, and telling him to "GET UP"? On it.
• Toss together an egocentric, first-ever Republican midterm convention that many endangered candidates don't want? Sounds like a good plan, boss! (Gavels in today in Dallas at 4 p.m. ET, in fact.)
• Oh, you want to speak both nights? Done!
• Make ads featuring you when your popularity is near its all-time low? You came to the right place, sir.
• Make the midterms a referendum on you? Check.
• Spend precious time obsessing about ballroom construction, and gilding and marbleizing the White House? You are the new Caesar Augustus.

 

Redistricting and Realignment in NC

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

 

One reason why the Republican partisan gerrymander of North Carolina's state legislature has steadily weakened over time is because Republicans have simply surrendered most large, fast-growing areas.

The @NCGOP is now so organizationally weak in metro counties that it could not… https://t.co/TfMdYd20A6 pic.twitter.com/6VgmRAZbAe

— Carolina Forward (@ForwardCarolina) September 8, 2026

Trump's Auto-Focus

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

 Annie KarniReid J. Epstein and Luke Broadwater at NYT:

In the White House Rose Garden last week, President Trump gathered some of the most politically endangered House Republicans for a dinner where he promised to make himself the face of the party’s uphill battle to keep control of Congress.

He was with them “100 percent — all the way until November,” Mr. Trump told the roughly two dozen lawmakers as they dined on prime aged beef burgers at tables adorned with bouquets of yellow roses. The president said he would travel to 35 key districts “to see if we can get everyone elected.”

The scene encapsulated the box that G.O.P. lawmakers have found themselves in as they stare down a bleak political environment.

They cannot afford to snub Mr. Trump, needing help from his enormous financial reserves and strong turnout from his base to win their campaigns. But they also do not want the election to be a referendum on the president, whose popularity is at a record low. And so far, he has shown little appetite for focusing on anyone’s political needs besides his own.

Two months before the midterm elections, Mr. Trump and the Republicans who have long tied their political fortunes to him appear to be at cross purposes as the party struggles to keep the House and Senate in G.O.P. hands.

As Republicans work to distance themselves from the president’s unpopular decisions, Mr. Trump is headlining a splashy convention in Dallas this week and has said that voters should “pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot.” As the candidates work to show they are focused on the concerns of everyday Americans, the president is spending much of his time in Washington focused on the construction of a White House ballroom, a 250-foot arch and a golf course on a public park alongside the Potomac River. And as they brace for the final costly weeks of their campaigns, he has yet to dole out hardly any of the nearly $1 billion he says his political action committee has raised.

Zac Anderson and Joey Garrison at USA TODAY:

President Donald Trump has a solution for his party’s midterm woes as Republicans struggle to match Democrats’ election enthusiasm and face major headwinds to keep control of Congress ‒ more Trump.

Enter “Trumpapalooza,” the party’s first-ever midterm convention and the president's clearest attempt yet to inject himself squarely at the center of the election and position himself as the party's savior.

Never mind that Trump’s low approval rating has been an anchor weighing on the GOP, with the potential to drag down midterm candidates. The president and his advisers have suggested he’s the only one who can bring the MAGA faithful to the polls in large enough numbers to avoid a midterm catastrophe for Republicans.

“This is a turnout race,” Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters said in an interview with USA TODAY. “We need the president front and center.”

That strategy will be on display over two days in Dallas beginning Sept. 9 as Trump gathers his party for the final post-Labor Day push toward the Nov. 3 election. Trump is set to attend both days and deliver the headline speech on the first night. The event – dubbed “Trumpapalooza” by Gruters – is part of the president’s bid to further nationalize the election and wrap it around his own political brand, a tactic some Republicans question.

The convention risks tying Republican candidates more tightly to Trump at a time when some in the party believe they need distance from the president amid polls showing voters disapprove of his performance on everything from tariffs to the Iran war and inflation.

“One of the problems that the party is having right now is the president’s approval rating is not good,” said longtime GOP strategist Charlie Black. “So the more candidates can get the voters to focus on them and the issues that they’re promoting, and less on the president, the better in most states and most districts.”