Paxton's Complaint

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections

Andrew Solender and Stef W. Kight at Axios:

Texas Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton privately lamented the impact of the Iran war and gas prices on his campaign in a meeting last month, telling a group of donors and lobbyists, "I don't make the decisions," according to audio obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: It's a candid admission from a close Trump ally about the challenging environment Republicans face this cycle.

Paxton, the Texas attorney general, was speaking to donors and lobbyists at a closed-door fundraiser in Washington, D.C. The audio was provided to Axios by a person, granted anonymity because it was a private event, who was in the meeting and is opposed to Paxton.

President Trump is set to rally with Paxton in San Antonio on Wednesday.

Driving the news: Asked by one attendee what issues are "dragging" on his campaign, Paxton responded, "It's not tariffs. ... It's the war, it's gas prices, it's diesel," according to an audio file obtained by Axios."When it's over $6 per gallon for diesel ... people are feeling the pinch," he continued, adding that the rising cost of fuel "drives up food prices and everything else."

The Republican candidate said affordability is "by far our biggest problem" and "why we're having a hard time with numbers."

Triage

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections

Andrew Howard, Erin Doherty and Lisa Kashinsky at POLITICO:

Republicans are flooding the electoral map with a deluge of advertising to defend their House and Senate majorities. But their once-towering financial advantage is starting to show its limits.

In recent days, Republican campaign groups began to make concessions to the punishing political environment, shifting money away from races they no longer believe to be winnable and falling back to reinforce another tier of seats in solidly red states that no longer look safe.

After abandoning a GOP-held Senate seat in North Carolina — a state President Donald Trump won three times — the outside groups began spending money to defend a seat in South Carolina. And they’re intensifying their advertising in Kansas, where Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in nearly a century.

In the battle for control of the House, national Republicans gave up on defending a blue-leaning seat in Nebraska held for a decade by retiring GOP Rep. Don Bacon.

Those dispiriting setbacks signal that the party’s defensive position is weakening with a month still left in the campaign.

One national Republican strategist, granted anonymity to speak freely about the party’s predicament, said the GOP could wind up facing even worse losses than in President George W. Bush’s disastrous second term.

“If the bottom continues falling out like it has been,” this operative said, “this will be worse than 2006.”

Incoherent Comments on Iran

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is has been full of ominous developments.  In 2024, Trump was already showing signs of cognitive decline. It's getting worse.

At TIME, Eric Cortellessa and  Sam Jacobs spoke with Trump:

Well, let's shift to Iran because a lot's going on over there. You initially said that the war would take about six to eight weeks. We're now entering the seventh month. Can you just explain, like, why is it taking so long?

Only because I wanted to go further. I took them out. I could have stopped then, but I wanted to go further. I didn't want them—because I met my timeline. If you look at what I did when we bombed the sites with a b2 bomber. Like we bombed those sites, and I call it nuclear dust—was under 1000s of tons of rubble. I could have stopped there, and I felt it was just inappropriate because—and they were itching to go on with their lives, if not there, someplace else. And so I went further. They're doing very poorly. Their economy is gone. Their inflation is at 300% or something like that. Their navy is gone. Their air force is gone. Everything's gone, and they want to make a deal, but I want to make the real deal. But when I said I was going to be there for a short period of time, I was, and then I decided I wanted to go further than that because I didn't want to have them come back in some different form.

Do you think the American people misunderstood that? I feel like most people heard you say four to six weeks.  [Fact check: true]

No, I think the press fed it to them, so that—look, we were in Vietnam for 21, 20, years. We were in Afghanistan for many years. We were in Korea for many. We're everywhere for many years. I'm in there now for six months, and I've destroyed their nuclear capability. I've destroyed their navy, 159 ships are at the bottom of the sea. I've destroyed their air force. All their planes are gone. I've destroyed their radar. That's why you know we have, we had more ships come through last night. We had more barrels of oil come through last night than at any time in the history of the Strait. Last night we set a record.

Well, on that note, were you aware in February that they would likely—they being Tehran—were likely to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz?

There was always a threat they had, and it worked for a little while. But we basically closed it on them. You know, they said we're going to close. I said, "Well, you close it, you're going to have big trouble." We took it over. You have to see the coastline. Everything is obliterated. They don't have radar. They don't have any anti-aircraft capability. Nothing. I have The New York Times saying how well they're doing, and it's so crazy. Their whole military is gone. Their radar is gone. Their leaders are gone. You know, we went through two levels of leaders, and The New York Times keeps writing about how well they're doing. They have no money. They have no value of money. They have nothing going, and just fake news, fake news, and maybe they’ll be next.

Last week, you said you might annihilate Iran. That was the word you used.

Yeah, I would do that. It's possible.

You've made versions of that threat before. You've also called yourself the president of peace.

Yeah.

How can the president of peace be calling for the annihilation of an entire people?

Because by annihilating Iran, we've created peace in the world. With Iran, I don't think you could ever have peace.

In Ads, Dem Candidates Fault Their Own Party

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.

Andrew Solender at Axios:

Democrats are adopting a drastically more negative tone toward their own party in the 2026 midterm elections, swapping promises of bipartisan collaboration with vows to "take on corruption in both parties."

Why it matters: This surge in political friendly fire reflects the extraordinary level of anger candidates are seeing from their voters toward the Democratic Party and the national political establishment.

Sam Forstag, a House candidate in Montana, told Axios in an interview that "a whole lot of my coworkers got a sour look on their face" when he revealed he was running as a Democrat.

"We have heard pretty loud and clear, whether it's at our town halls or on parade routes, that ... there's just a growing frustration with both political parties," said Jake Johnson, a Democratic candidate in Minnesota.

By the numbers: An Axios analysis of more than 350 ads in federal and statewide elections since 2018 found a huge uptick in Democratic ads mentioning either the Democratic Party or both parties in a negative context.The analysis looked at ads run between Aug. 24 and Sept. 22 of each election year that used phrases such as "my own party," "both parties," and "party leaders."

Candidates often try to appeal to swing voters by pitching themselves as bipartisan problem solvers, pointing out past instances of collaboration or making pledges to work across the aisle if elected.

But Democrats have leaned hard into more populist, anti-establishment rhetoric this year, with ads denouncing a broken political system or citing past instances in which they defied their party.

"I didn't care that he was a Democrat or the pressure that I got to make it go away," Virginia Democrat Shannon Taylor says in one ad about the prosecution of former state Sen. Joe Morrissey.

Data: AdImpact; Note: Party totals include independents running as the de facto nominee; Chart: Andrew Solender/Axios

Trump's Taxpayer-Funded TV Ads

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Along with war and inflation, Trump's corruption is bringing down the GOP.

The US Government is running thinly disguised Trump TV ads, which include footage from the 2024 campaign.  Evan Spear of The Dispatch:

“Under the Constitution, Congress controls our public money,” David Super, a law professor at Georgetown University, told TMD. Federal officials who spend money for a purpose Congress didn’t authorize face administrative penalties under the Antideficiency Act—up to suspension without pay or removal from office—and knowing violations are a crime: Super said anyone involved in arranging, paying for, or running the ads could be prosecuted. Congress’ own lever is the purse; it could cut off the agency’s money until it obeys the law, Brand said.

...

Whatever the legal fallout, the purpose of the ads—beyond flattering the president—is hard to see, and the commercials don’t seem to be persuading viewers. Steve Passwaiter, president at Silver Oak Political and a longtime analyst of political advertising, shared with TMD an analysis by PharosGraph, a data firm he advises, that scored the spots with the same model it runs on campaign ads. Among rural conservatives and evangelicals, they landed about as well as the average Republican ad. But for independents, swing-state voters, and suburban women, “a standard Republican ad from another candidate or PAC is actually performing better,” Passwaiter said. “It’s just preaching to the choir.”

Despite his low approval ratings, Trump has asked Republican voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot, and perhaps the ads are aimed at doing that (despite some Republicans disagreeing with that strategy). But they are not being placed in battleground states. According to PharosGraph’s read of AdImpact data, the spots have aired in 207 of the country’s 208 TV markets, with more than half the money going to football broadcasts and the Sunday political shows—a buy built to reach nearly everyone, carrying a message written for people who already agree with the president.

The sums are small, too. “$20 million might make a difference in Maine,” Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, told TMD, but at a national level, it’s hardly anything. Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has spent about $63.4 million on advertising in his Texas race alone. While CBP has contracted the full $20 million to an ad agency, only a fraction has gone to airtime so far: AdImpact estimated that the ads had cost at least $2.5 million to air through September 29. Nationally, Pitney said, the White House is likely “hoping for reverb”—news coverage, particularly from right-wing media, that carries the ads further than the airtime does.

Pitney said the ads suffer from a lack of specificity, noting that successful attack ads “need a visible enemy on the other side of the field.” Trump doesn’t have a singular adversary at this stage of his political career, so he is forced to call out anachronistic and abstract enemies, like “the villains, the communists.”

“It’s part of a broader phenomenon that he doesn’t have anything new to say,” Pitney said. 

As in 2024, Trump says it is the "final battle."   If 2024 was the final battle, why is he repeating the line.  And doesn't he expect the US to have another election in two years?

The Hits Keep Coming

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

JILL COLVIN and LINLEY SANDERS at AP:

Americans are deeply frustrated with President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy and rising prices, with most panning his performance and blaming his policies as higher costs threaten his party’s chances in November.

A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that only 17% of U.S. adults approve of the Republican president’s handling of the cost of living. Just 26% approve of his handling of the economy overall, marking a new low.

A majority, 65%, of U.S. adults now blame Trump’s policies for persistently high costs more than factors outside of his control, signaling growing weariness over his aggressive use of tariffs and continued unhappiness with the war with Iran.

Hans Nichols at Axios:

Between the lines: Republicans decided against breaking for an early recess last week.The biggest thing to show for it: A historic — and bipartisan — college sports package that doesn't do much for those defending their seats in November. It faces long odds in the House.

 Otherwise it was a week of pain:

• Failed votes: A vote addressing Americans' concerns about data centers driving up energy costs failed today, as did another to curb congressional stock trades and enforce voter IDs.
• A line of attack that backfired: A major hearing with Jack Smith was overshadowed by a failed attempt by Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) to link the special counsel and Atlanta prosecutor Fani Willis.
• The Trump issue: Republicans have been tiptoeing around whether Trump's unpopularity will hurt the party in November, only for Texas nominee Ken Paxton to be caught blaming Trump's midterm convention for hurting his polling.
• NRSC Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) said Paxton's analysis was "just wrong" and called the convention "a boost in the right direction."

Isaac Arnsdorf at WP:

Now, as dissatisfaction grows with Trump’s economic performance, questions about how he and his family profit from the presidency have taken on more bite. Some of the loudest complaints are coming from young, male crypto enthusiasts who were initially energized by candidate Trump’s embrace of the industry — and now are better equipped than the average voter to understand the ventures that earned the president $1.4 billion last year.

 ...

“What they basically did was a money grab,” said David from South Carolina, a participant in a focus group of independent and moderate 18-to-24-year-olds conducted this year for the Bulwark’s Focus Group podcast. “Why does he need to keep doing it? He’s literally a billionaire. Like, how much more money does he need?” The Washington Post is identifying participants in the focus group only by their first names in accordance with the ground rules for the session.

Six out of nine of the young men on that panel said they had heard of Trump’s memecoin. In another focus group, all eight had. The participants referenced a meme of a “Trump” playing card that cuts your portfolio by half and a viral, unverified story about a young man who lost his inheritance by betting on the Trump coin.

...

Trump won 43 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds in 2024, according to exit polls. Last month, his approval rating with voters under 30 dropped to 19 percent in a Fox News poll, which found 63 percent saying they would vote for a Democrat for Congress.

...

“I always supported Trump, and he promised that he would be the crypto president,” Pinto said. “I was under the impression that would be for bitcoin — I never thought he would launch his own token.”

“The whole thing is a rug pull,” he added, using crypto slang for a scheme where someone creates a token, hypes it up and then cashes out.

In addition to his memecoins, Trump also owns a stake, the exact size of which is undisclosed, in World Liberty Financial, a crypto venture set up by his sons alongside the sons of Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff. The company offers stablecoins, marketing itself as a way around conventional banking.

The Corruption Issue

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Along with war and inflation, Trump's corruption is bringing down the GOP.

Dan Merica at WP:

Democrats across the country are coalescing around a closing message in the midterm elections that accuses Republicans of flagrant corruption, tying the attack to the billions President Donald Trump has made during his second term and arguing that, unlike in the past, this issue is costing voters money.

The president made more than $1.4 billion from cryptocurrency alone in 2025. Over one dozen companies with investment funds tied to Trump’s sons amassed $3.2 billion in federal contracts, loans and investments. And Trump says his son recently paid back the well-connected Russian businessman who funded his wedding celebrations.

Voters’ feelings that politicians are corrupt have grown more prevalent in recent years. Nearly 90 percent of U.S. adults said corruption was widespread in government, according to a Gallup poll released this month, a 10-point jump from last year.
\
But the difference in Democratic messaging this year is that the party is linking headlines about the Trump family’s growing wealth with the way people feel like costs are hurting them every day.

“Trump’s corruption has really put the issue front and center,” said Lauren French, a spokesperson for the Senate Majority PAC, the top Democratic super PAC focused on taking back the legislative chamber. “What we are seeing is if the 2018 elections were a response to the chaos of Trump 1, these elections are about the corruption of Trump 2.”

The focus has been particularly pronounced in Senate races, where French’s group has advised political operatives nationwide to “amplify” their focus on corruption by tying it to rising costs.

In a strategy memo sent to operatives this week, and shared first with this newsletter, the super PAC reports that its research shows voters believe “corruption is a problem that personally raises their own costs, and the top reason by far is that it drives up the price of everyday goods: gas, groceries, utilities, housing.” The group advises candidates to keep costs front and center while focused on corruption, but suggests labeling Republicans as “corrupt politicians” while linking their opponents to what voters view as Trump’s own self-dealing.

The group has put this strategy behind the tens of millions they plan to spend on ads this cycle.