CA Billionaire Tax

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Laura J. Nelson and Paul Kiernan at WSJ:

The idea seemed simple at first: a one-time tax on California’s billionaires to counter looming cuts to Medicaid.

Instead, the proposed wealth tax has exposed deep divisions among Democrats and created strange bedfellows on both sides working to defeat or pass the proposal.

Drama surrounding the measure includes a fight among labor unions worried their own priorities will suffer, tech elites putting down hundreds of millions to defeat it and allegations of extortion and harassment by the tax’s architect.

The messy fight has gripped California for the past year and shows how enacting a long-heralded concept on the left—taxing billionaires’ stratospheric wealth—is far from easy, even in one of the nation’s bluest states. It has been one of the costliest ballot fights in California’s history.

Voters will decide on Nov. 3 whether to approve the nation’s first-ever wealth tax targeting billionaires. The latest independent polls show slightly more voters support than oppose the tax, with large numbers undecided. Democratic voters show much stronger support—despite opposition by many of their leaders.

The tax is “already a hot mess, no matter what happens,” said Katie Porter, a progressive former congresswoman from Orange County who opposes it.

Newsom opposes the tax, and not just for fear of offending the rich. Marisa Lagos at KQED:

Fernando Guerra, a political science professor at Loyola Marymount University, said he thinks Newsom’s opposition to the billionaire tax will help him with centrist Democrats he would need to capture the Democratic nomination in 2028.

“It defuses him being the total lefty from California,” said Guerra, who predicted that the tax will get defeated.

But the billionaires may not be Newsom’s only audience. Fernando Guerra, a political science professor at Loyola Marymount University, said he thinks Newsom’s opposition to the billionaire tax will help him with centrist Democrats he would need to capture the Democratic nomination in 2028.

“It defuses him being the total lefty from California,” said Guerra, who predicted that the tax will get defeated.

 

Trump Speaks. Democratic Oppo Researchers Say "Thank You, God!"

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain. Tariffs make things even worse. Indeed, it is hard to think of any president who has indulged in such needless midterm self-sabotage.

It goes beyond policy.  He pushed weak Republican candidates for nomination in Texas, South Carolina, Georgia, and elsewhere.

And his rhetoric has become an ammo dump for Democratic opposition researchers.

TRUMP on HIGH GAS PRICES: We’re making money like we’ve never made before. They’ll say: President Trump is bragging about all the money they're making while people are suffering at the pump. I don’t give a damn. We’re making a freaking fortune. https://t.co/KZ2pYsTPyR

— Acyn (@Acyn) October 25, 2026

Trump: "Why do we always have to take people from shit house countries? We can't we take people from Norway and Sweden and Denmark? By the way, Denmark gave us Greenland ... what do you take, Venezuela or Greenland? We got them both!" https://t.co/M1WvEMP5Yy

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 24, 2026

Trump: "Somalia -- 98% of the people here now from Somalia don't work. They don't have to work because they steal so much. They all have a Mercedes Benz. Low IQ and they live better than you do." https://t.co/J6dMA1JHfZ

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 24, 2026

Tariff Man Lays an Egg

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain. Tariffs make things even worse. Indeed, it is hard to think of any president who has indulged in such needless midterm self-sabotage.

You can infer what internal polls are telling candidates by looking at their ads.  These numbers indicate that tariffs are really, really unpopular. From Greg Ip, WSJ:

President Trump once called “tariff” the most beautiful word in the dictionary. He has somehow made it one of the most hated words in politics.

In their midterm ads, Democrats repeatedly bash tariffs. Republicans, by contrast, are largely silent. One exception: Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers who calls to “end this tariff war now,” while gripping a Canadian-brand beer, now caught up in Trump’s trade war.

Petroleum Politics in Late October

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

 Natassia Paloma at The El Paso Times:

Gas prices remain above $4 a gallon nationwide as crude oil prices hover near $100 a barrel.

As of Friday, Oct. 23, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $4.29, down about 20 cents from a week earlier but still more than $1 higher than the same time last year, according to AAA.

Diesel prices averaged $5.75 a gallon, compared with $3.11 a year ago.

Will Kubzansky at Bloomberg:

Gas prices in two Midwestern battleground states saw further hikes on Thursday as the region's market grapples with a refinery issue in Illinois.

In Michigan, prices rose to $4.74 a gallon on Thursday, up from $4.59 a gallon on Wednesday, according to GasBuddy, a fuel savings app that tracks prices in live time. In Ohio, prices stood at $4.34 a gallon, up from $4.05 a gallon on Wednesday. GasBuddy's prices differ slightly from those released by AAA, which issues nightly updates on prices.

A shut-down of a key unit at ExxonMobil Holdings Corp.'s Joliet, Illinois, refinery had already pushed prices significantly higher on Wednesday in both states.

Giulia Carbonaro at Newsweek:

Millions of homeowners across the Northeast could pay more to heat their homes this winter, as heating oil prices remain high after surging in the months following the start of the Iran war in late February.

While over 90 percent of U.S. households use natural gas and electricity to warm their homes, heating oil is still widely used in the Northeast, a particularly cold-weather region. According to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), only four percent of households nationwide used heating oil as their primary heating source, while five percent used propane.

...

Maine has the nation’s highest share of homes relying on heating oil as the main heat source, according to the latest state-level Census Bureau data available on fuels used in homes, which refers to 2022, at around 50 percent. The number was obtained by calculating the proportion of occupied housing units whose main heating fuel was “fuel oil, kerosene, or other.”

New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Alaska and Rhode Island follow with shares between 37 percent and 25 percent. Massachusetts, New York and Pennsylvania are next with shares between 20 percent and 12 percent.

Peter McGuire at Maine Public Radio:

Maine heating oil has hit a new record high price as the federal government scrambles to stabilize prices ahead of cold winter weather.

The average statewide price was $6.04 per gallon on Oct. 19, according to the Maine Department of Energy Resources, which tracks weekly oil prices. That means it will cost about $750 more to fill a 275-gallon oil tank than it did a year ago, according to the department.

 

Dirty Vivek

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. Oppo is part of the story.

First, Senator Eric Schnitt's attack on Jack Smith for alleged perjury blew up in comical fashion.

Second, the false story about Talarico's purported mental treatment blew up when video confirmed that he was at home the whole time.

Now, Ramaswamy hits a now low.

Charles Hilu at National Review Online:

The mother of Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amy Acton cut an ad Monday in which she accuses her daughter of lying about her childhood and encourages voters not to make her their next governor, but legal documents obtained by National Review provide 
evidence that Acton faced sexual abuse as a child while in her mother’s custody.

 Donna Arthur, Acton’s estranged mother, says in the ad that life in Ohio “will only get worse” with Acton in the governor’s mansion, and she disputes parts of Acton’s personal history. But Acton has long maintained — even before becoming a political candidate — that she grew up in an unstable home when she lived with her mother following her parents’ divorce, even spending a winter in a tent in a campground outside of Youngstown and enduring sexual abuse by one of her mother’s male partners. Court records confirm many key parts of Acton’s account of her life.

“She is a liar. She lies about her past. She says she grew up living in a tent. None of that is true. She’s lied her entire life,” Acton’s mother says in the ad.

While Donna Arthur was married to Cledith Arthur in 1978 when Acton was 12 years old, Cledith Arthur was charged with having sexual contact with her, documents show. Evidence against him included a sworn statement from Acton’s biological father, and Acton herself was called to testify as a witness. Following his indictment by a grand jury, Cledith Arthur skipped town.

Donna Arthur also has her own criminal history, including pleading guilty to theft by deception while living in Pennsylvania in the 1990s and being accused of animal abuse as recently as 2021.

Following the ad’s release Acton, who is locked in a tight race with Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy, put out a statement from her brother confirming the candidates’s side of the story.

“After he was arrested and Amy and I were removed from their custody, our birth mother stayed married to Amy’s rapist until he died,” Philip Stearns, the brother, said in a press release from the campaign. “This desperate, disgusting attack reveals exactly who Vivek Ramaswamy is at his core – a pathetic excuse for a man who is willing to hurt anyone as long as it gets him what he wants.”

Let's get into it .. ☕ Acton Mom Attack Ad First of all anyone whose worked on campaigns (me), knows every piece of media must be labeled with "paid for by." Under Ohio Revised Code Section 3517.20, state campaigns must conspicuously use the specific phrase "paid for by" followed by the name of the entity, explicitly banning generic terms like "paid political advertisement". If an outside Political Action Committee (PAC) or individual buys an ad supporting a governor without the campaign's involvement, state laws usually mandate that the ad explicitly state "not authorized by any candidate" alongside who paid for it. Furthermore.... Under Ohio Revised Code Section 3517.105 and Section 3517.20, a political advertisement that is not sponsored or authorized by a candidate's campaign (known as an independent expenditure) must explicitly tell the public that the ad is unauthorized and state exactly who paid for it. The disclaimer must include a clear statement showing a total lack of coordination with the candidate. It must contain the Name and Address of the chairperson, treasurer, or secretary of the organization or PAC responsible for the ad. In Ohio, if an individual is acting completely alone and paying with their own personal funds, they are entirely exempt from the political disclaimer rule. So one or more things can/may be true: This is a rogue actor who paid for by himself (low probability). Vivek's camp funded it, didn't report it as a campaign expense or media, then floated it to an NPC who ran it on X. A PAC, donor, or outside funding source paid for it, didn't reported, and floated it to an NPC. Buckle up.

— The Constitutionalist 🇺🇸 (@WeWillBeFree24) October 20, 2026

Measles and the Midterm

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

Another is measles.

Former Representatives. Larry Bucshon, M.D., a Republican from Indiana, and Michael C. Burgess, M.D., a Republican at STAT:

This year, the United States has already recorded more than 4,000 cases, the highest annual total since 1991, along with six related deaths. These numbers are showing no sign of decline.

Voters have certainly noticed — and they’re blaming Republicans. According to a recent KFF poll, more than 60% of voters now disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of vaccine policy. Only 28% of independents approve. Democrats now hold a 16-point advantage on the issue: Forty-one percent of voters trust them more to handle vaccine policy, compared with 25% who trust Republicans..

    ... 

Our party’s own data warned us that backsliding on vaccines would hurt our prospects. In 2025, the Republican polling firm Fabrizio Ward published a memo finding broad bipartisan support for routine childhood vaccines and warning that undermining them would cost votes.

The numbers are stark. Seventy-four percent of Americans say ensuring broad availability of Food and Drug Administration-approved vaccines should be a priority. Nearly 70% say they would be more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who vows to preserve vaccine access over one who seeks to rescind it. And crucially, more than 50% of voters say they’d be less likely to support a candidate who doesn’t support vaccines, even if they align with that candidate on other issues.

In other words, silence on vaccines is becoming a dealbreaker for voters who would otherwise vote Republican.

Democratic candidates have wasted no time in turning the issue to their advantage. If Republicans come up short in November, there will be plenty of blame to go around — but this wound is self-inflicted.

The good news is that a self-inflicted wound is one we can heal ourselves. Republican candidates should address the measles resurgence by loudly promoting access to FDA-approved vaccines and insisting that families receive dependable information from their physicians.

Outsiderism 2026

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In other books we trace Trump's outsiderism to earlier figures. As I mentioned in a previous post, Elizabeth Drew's Election Journal, I came across this passage, which sounds as if it could apply to Trump.

For a large portion of [his] supporters and would-be supporters, whether his proposals stand up to scrutiny is irrelevant. Their support for him is in a different category -- as the leader of a movement. [He] has become the vehicle for their discontent -- with current policies, with the other candidates. He stands in bold, interesting contrast to some fairly dull candidates. He is the anti-politics candidate. Measuring his program is linear, rational, while most of the support for him is based on emotion.

In this case, the candidate was ... Jesse Jackson. The comparison is less bizarre than it may seem at first. Like Trump was also a morally-compromised leader with deep prejudices and a disregard for factual accuracy Jackson was an sought adulation for himself while giving voice to the inchoate frustrations of large group of Americans who thought that the system was rigged against them. In the book, we quote Jackson's description of his followers: "My constituency is the desperate, the damned, the disinherited, the disrespected, and the despised."

And once again, the Democrats and independents are the outsiders.  Mike Allen at Axios:

In red states and blue, unconventional candidates are downplaying — or even disowning — party labels to tap into voters' disdain for Washington, Axios' Hans Nichols writes.

Why it matters: They might not all win, but the sheer number of political outsiders connecting with voters tells us something about the electorate: It's angry and willing to take risks.The candidates — whether they come from the pulpit or the NFL sidelines — are making the same bet: Voters are tired of career politicians.

Zoom in: Consider three unorthodox Democrats leading Senate contests in red states: a Presbyterian seminarian in Texas (state Rep. James Talarico), a megachurch pastor in Kansas (Adam Hamilton), and an Alaska Native in that state (former Rep. Mary Peltola, who once skipped a week of House votes to go fishing when Chinook salmon were running).

• Traditionally blue Minnesota's Senate race features Michele Tafoya — a former NFL sideline reporter who's endorsed by President Trump but calls herself an independent Republican. She's mounting a serious challenge to Democrat Peggy Flanagan, the lieutenant governor.
• In House races, Democrats are fielding a smokejumper in Montana (Sam Forstag), a 29-year-old barista in Colorado (Melat Kiros) and a Tejano singer in Texas (Bobby Pulido).

Four independent Senate candidates are courting Democratic voters without a (D) next to their names — and sometimes without a Democrat in the race.

1. In Nebraska, Dan Osborn, a union steamfitter and former factory mechanic, is mounting a serious independent challenge to Sen. Pete Ricketts, a former two-term governor whose family owns the Chicago Cubs.
2. In Montana, Seth Bodnar, a former Army Green Beret and University of Montana president, is running as an independent for an open Senate seat. Democrats tried to persuade their nominee to drop out, but she stayed in the race.
3. In South Dakota, Brian Bengs, a one-time park ranger, is challenging Republican Sen. Mike Rounds as an independent. Four years ago, Bengs ran as a Democrat against Sen. John Thune.
4. In Idaho, former Army tank commander and tech executive Todd Achilles is running as an independent against Republican Sen. Jim Risch. (Achilles previously served as a Democrat in the Idaho House.)