Petroleum Politics in Late October

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

 Natassia Paloma at The El Paso Times:

Gas prices remain above $4 a gallon nationwide as crude oil prices hover near $100 a barrel.

As of Friday, Oct. 23, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $4.29, down about 20 cents from a week earlier but still more than $1 higher than the same time last year, according to AAA.

Diesel prices averaged $5.75 a gallon, compared with $3.11 a year ago.

Will Kubzansky at Bloomberg:

Gas prices in two Midwestern battleground states saw further hikes on Thursday as the region's market grapples with a refinery issue in Illinois.

In Michigan, prices rose to $4.74 a gallon on Thursday, up from $4.59 a gallon on Wednesday, according to GasBuddy, a fuel savings app that tracks prices in live time. In Ohio, prices stood at $4.34 a gallon, up from $4.05 a gallon on Wednesday. GasBuddy's prices differ slightly from those released by AAA, which issues nightly updates on prices.

A shut-down of a key unit at ExxonMobil Holdings Corp.'s Joliet, Illinois, refinery had already pushed prices significantly higher on Wednesday in both states.

Giulia Carbonaro at Newsweek:

Millions of homeowners across the Northeast could pay more to heat their homes this winter, as heating oil prices remain high after surging in the months following the start of the Iran war in late February.

While over 90 percent of U.S. households use natural gas and electricity to warm their homes, heating oil is still widely used in the Northeast, a particularly cold-weather region. According to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), only four percent of households nationwide used heating oil as their primary heating source, while five percent used propane.

...

Maine has the nation’s highest share of homes relying on heating oil as the main heat source, according to the latest state-level Census Bureau data available on fuels used in homes, which refers to 2022, at around 50 percent. The number was obtained by calculating the proportion of occupied housing units whose main heating fuel was “fuel oil, kerosene, or other.”

New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Alaska and Rhode Island follow with shares between 37 percent and 25 percent. Massachusetts, New York and Pennsylvania are next with shares between 20 percent and 12 percent.

Peter McGuire at Maine Public Radio:

Maine heating oil has hit a new record high price as the federal government scrambles to stabilize prices ahead of cold winter weather.

The average statewide price was $6.04 per gallon on Oct. 19, according to the Maine Department of Energy Resources, which tracks weekly oil prices. That means it will cost about $750 more to fill a 275-gallon oil tank than it did a year ago, according to the department.

 

Dirty Vivek

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. Oppo is part of the story.

First, Senator Eric Schnitt's attack on Jack Smith for alleged perjury blew up in comical fashion.

Second, the false story about Talarico's purported mental treatment blew up when video confirmed that he was at home the whole time.

Now, Ramaswamy hits a now low.

Charles Hilu at National Review Online:

The mother of Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amy Acton cut an ad Monday in which she accuses her daughter of lying about her childhood and encourages voters not to make her their next governor, but legal documents obtained by National Review provide 
evidence that Acton faced sexual abuse as a child while in her mother’s custody.

 Donna Arthur, Acton’s estranged mother, says in the ad that life in Ohio “will only get worse” with Acton in the governor’s mansion, and she disputes parts of Acton’s personal history. But Acton has long maintained — even before becoming a political candidate — that she grew up in an unstable home when she lived with her mother following her parents’ divorce, even spending a winter in a tent in a campground outside of Youngstown and enduring sexual abuse by one of her mother’s male partners. Court records confirm many key parts of Acton’s account of her life.

“She is a liar. She lies about her past. She says she grew up living in a tent. None of that is true. She’s lied her entire life,” Acton’s mother says in the ad.

While Donna Arthur was married to Cledith Arthur in 1978 when Acton was 12 years old, Cledith Arthur was charged with having sexual contact with her, documents show. Evidence against him included a sworn statement from Acton’s biological father, and Acton herself was called to testify as a witness. Following his indictment by a grand jury, Cledith Arthur skipped town.

Donna Arthur also has her own criminal history, including pleading guilty to theft by deception while living in Pennsylvania in the 1990s and being accused of animal abuse as recently as 2021.

Following the ad’s release Acton, who is locked in a tight race with Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy, put out a statement from her brother confirming the candidates’s side of the story.

“After he was arrested and Amy and I were removed from their custody, our birth mother stayed married to Amy’s rapist until he died,” Philip Stearns, the brother, said in a press release from the campaign. “This desperate, disgusting attack reveals exactly who Vivek Ramaswamy is at his core – a pathetic excuse for a man who is willing to hurt anyone as long as it gets him what he wants.”

Let's get into it .. ☕ Acton Mom Attack Ad First of all anyone whose worked on campaigns (me), knows every piece of media must be labeled with "paid for by." Under Ohio Revised Code Section 3517.20, state campaigns must conspicuously use the specific phrase "paid for by" followed by the name of the entity, explicitly banning generic terms like "paid political advertisement". If an outside Political Action Committee (PAC) or individual buys an ad supporting a governor without the campaign's involvement, state laws usually mandate that the ad explicitly state "not authorized by any candidate" alongside who paid for it. Furthermore.... Under Ohio Revised Code Section 3517.105 and Section 3517.20, a political advertisement that is not sponsored or authorized by a candidate's campaign (known as an independent expenditure) must explicitly tell the public that the ad is unauthorized and state exactly who paid for it. The disclaimer must include a clear statement showing a total lack of coordination with the candidate. It must contain the Name and Address of the chairperson, treasurer, or secretary of the organization or PAC responsible for the ad. In Ohio, if an individual is acting completely alone and paying with their own personal funds, they are entirely exempt from the political disclaimer rule. So one or more things can/may be true: This is a rogue actor who paid for by himself (low probability). Vivek's camp funded it, didn't report it as a campaign expense or media, then floated it to an NPC who ran it on X. A PAC, donor, or outside funding source paid for it, didn't reported, and floated it to an NPC. Buckle up.

— The Constitutionalist 🇺🇸 (@WeWillBeFree24) October 20, 2026

Measles and the Midterm

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

Another is measles.

Former Representatives. Larry Bucshon, M.D., a Republican from Indiana, and Michael C. Burgess, M.D., a Republican at STAT:

This year, the United States has already recorded more than 4,000 cases, the highest annual total since 1991, along with six related deaths. These numbers are showing no sign of decline.

Voters have certainly noticed — and they’re blaming Republicans. According to a recent KFF poll, more than 60% of voters now disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of vaccine policy. Only 28% of independents approve. Democrats now hold a 16-point advantage on the issue: Forty-one percent of voters trust them more to handle vaccine policy, compared with 25% who trust Republicans..

    ... 

Our party’s own data warned us that backsliding on vaccines would hurt our prospects. In 2025, the Republican polling firm Fabrizio Ward published a memo finding broad bipartisan support for routine childhood vaccines and warning that undermining them would cost votes.

The numbers are stark. Seventy-four percent of Americans say ensuring broad availability of Food and Drug Administration-approved vaccines should be a priority. Nearly 70% say they would be more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who vows to preserve vaccine access over one who seeks to rescind it. And crucially, more than 50% of voters say they’d be less likely to support a candidate who doesn’t support vaccines, even if they align with that candidate on other issues.

In other words, silence on vaccines is becoming a dealbreaker for voters who would otherwise vote Republican.

Democratic candidates have wasted no time in turning the issue to their advantage. If Republicans come up short in November, there will be plenty of blame to go around — but this wound is self-inflicted.

The good news is that a self-inflicted wound is one we can heal ourselves. Republican candidates should address the measles resurgence by loudly promoting access to FDA-approved vaccines and insisting that families receive dependable information from their physicians.

Outsiderism 2026

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In other books we trace Trump's outsiderism to earlier figures. As I mentioned in a previous post, Elizabeth Drew's Election Journal, I came across this passage, which sounds as if it could apply to Trump.

For a large portion of [his] supporters and would-be supporters, whether his proposals stand up to scrutiny is irrelevant. Their support for him is in a different category -- as the leader of a movement. [He] has become the vehicle for their discontent -- with current policies, with the other candidates. He stands in bold, interesting contrast to some fairly dull candidates. He is the anti-politics candidate. Measuring his program is linear, rational, while most of the support for him is based on emotion.

In this case, the candidate was ... Jesse Jackson. The comparison is less bizarre than it may seem at first. Like Trump was also a morally-compromised leader with deep prejudices and a disregard for factual accuracy Jackson was an sought adulation for himself while giving voice to the inchoate frustrations of large group of Americans who thought that the system was rigged against them. In the book, we quote Jackson's description of his followers: "My constituency is the desperate, the damned, the disinherited, the disrespected, and the despised."

And once again, the Democrats and independents are the outsiders.  Mike Allen at Axios:

In red states and blue, unconventional candidates are downplaying — or even disowning — party labels to tap into voters' disdain for Washington, Axios' Hans Nichols writes.

Why it matters: They might not all win, but the sheer number of political outsiders connecting with voters tells us something about the electorate: It's angry and willing to take risks.The candidates — whether they come from the pulpit or the NFL sidelines — are making the same bet: Voters are tired of career politicians.

Zoom in: Consider three unorthodox Democrats leading Senate contests in red states: a Presbyterian seminarian in Texas (state Rep. James Talarico), a megachurch pastor in Kansas (Adam Hamilton), and an Alaska Native in that state (former Rep. Mary Peltola, who once skipped a week of House votes to go fishing when Chinook salmon were running).

• Traditionally blue Minnesota's Senate race features Michele Tafoya — a former NFL sideline reporter who's endorsed by President Trump but calls herself an independent Republican. She's mounting a serious challenge to Democrat Peggy Flanagan, the lieutenant governor.
• In House races, Democrats are fielding a smokejumper in Montana (Sam Forstag), a 29-year-old barista in Colorado (Melat Kiros) and a Tejano singer in Texas (Bobby Pulido).

Four independent Senate candidates are courting Democratic voters without a (D) next to their names — and sometimes without a Democrat in the race.

1. In Nebraska, Dan Osborn, a union steamfitter and former factory mechanic, is mounting a serious independent challenge to Sen. Pete Ricketts, a former two-term governor whose family owns the Chicago Cubs.
2. In Montana, Seth Bodnar, a former Army Green Beret and University of Montana president, is running as an independent for an open Senate seat. Democrats tried to persuade their nominee to drop out, but she stayed in the race.
3. In South Dakota, Brian Bengs, a one-time park ranger, is challenging Republican Sen. Mike Rounds as an independent. Four years ago, Bengs ran as a Democrat against Sen. John Thune.
4. In Idaho, former Army tank commander and tech executive Todd Achilles is running as an independent against Republican Sen. Jim Risch. (Achilles previously served as a Democrat in the Idaho House.)

More Bad Numbers for the GOP

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Ben Casselman at NYT:

True, much of the data pointed to strength, or at least stability. Retail sales rose at a healthy pace in September. Filings for unemployment benefits remained low. Industrial output hit a postpandemic high.

But there was no relief on the issue that matters most to many voters, inflation. Consumer prices rose last month at their fastest rate since May, outpacing wage growth for the sixth month in a row. Producer prices, too, came in hot, as did prices for imported goods. And gasoline — the most visible price in the economy, and one that few Americans have any choice about paying — stayed above $4 a gallon nationally, where it has been for most of the past six months.

Little wonder, then, that measures of consumer sentiment have worsened, and that polls show voters are poised to punish Republicans for failing to keep the economic promises they made on the campaign trail two years ago.

The cost of living “is going to be the first issue on the scorecard in 2026,” said John W. Lettieri, president of the Economic Innovation Group, which last week published a survey of voter attitudes on the economy. “The results are not good on that top issue.”

Sahil Kapur at NBC:

Weeks ahead of Election Day, 71% of U.S. adults think the country is on the “wrong track.” It’s the highest share yet in President Donald Trump’s second term, illustrating the grim national mood his party faces in the midterm elections, according to a new NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey.

Poll respondents expressed deep unhappiness over economic conditions and widespread distrust toward both major political parties, but Trump and Republicans bore the brunt. For the first time in Trump’s second term, the poll has found the “right track” sinking into the 20s. A majority of Americans view the president’s administration as uniquely corrupt, even as they look skeptically at corruption in both parties. And they say Trump is failing to improve their material financial conditions.

13 min

 Dan Balz and Scott Clement at WP:

Two weeks from Election Day, Republicans face a bleak political landscape. President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a new low, and support for Democrats in the race for control of Congress is rising as inflationary pressures contribute to an acrid mood among voters, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.

Trump’s approval among U.S. adults now stands at 33 percent, with 66 percent disapproving; 52 percent said they disapprove strongly. That approval rating is four percentage points lower than in July and eight points lower than at this point last year. Among likely voters, Trump’s approval is 38 percent, with 62 percent disapproving.

The poll also finds that, for the first time in more than a decade, Democrats are seen as more trusted to deal with the economy.

In the competition for control of the House, Democrats hold an eight-point lead among registered and likely voters, an improvement for the party since The Post’s July poll, when the Democratic lead was three points with registered voters.

Trump is central to Republicans’ struggles. In a separate question, the poll asked voters whether they would rather have a Democratic-led Congress acting as a check on Trump or a Republican one to support his agenda. By 58 percent to 39 percent, registered voters said they prefer the Democrats. That margin is roughly double what it was a year ago.

In other words, James Madison still rules America. 

Democratic Senate Candidates Haul in Campaign Money

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Hans Nichols at Axios:

If money is momentum, Democratic Senate candidates are poised for a monumental Election Day."Oh my god, holy crap," said Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) when informed of Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico's $64 million haul in the third quarter of the year. "I mean, that's a number that's mind-blowing."

Why it matters: Republicans are awash in super PAC cash, but Democrats' advantage in hard dollars reveals a yawning enthusiasm gap — the kind of energy money can't buy.

Texas      

            James Talarico (D): $64 million
            Ken Paxton (R): $18 million

Georgia

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D): $33.1 million
Mike Collins (R): $2.8 million

Michigan   

            Abdul El-Sayed (D): $30.7 million
            Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R): $9.7 million

Ohio

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D): $23 million
Sen. Jon Husted (R): $5 million

Maine

Troy Jackson (D): $20.4 million
Sen. Susan Collins (R): $5.2 million

Alaska

Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D): $17 million
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R): $2 million

Iowa

Josh Turek (D): $12 million
Rep. Ashley Hinson (R): $3 million

North Carolina

Roy Cooper (D): $20 million
Michael Whatley (R): $2 million

Kansas 

Adam Hamilton (D): $11 million
Sen. Roger Marshall (R): $800,000

Between the lines: The figures reflect FEC filings as well as totals reported by the campaigns, some of which include money raised through affiliated joint fundraising committees.

Even accounting for those differences, Democratic Senate candidates are dramatically outraising their Republican opponents in several of the country's most competitive races

Corruption Update

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Along with war and inflation, Trump's corruption is bringing down the GOP.

AP-NORC:

Most Americans say President Trump has prioritized his personal financial interests and the interests of people close to him since taking office again in 2025. Far fewer say he has prioritized the country as a whole or people like them. Four in 10 believe he has done something illegal and another 18% see his actions as unethical but not illegal, though views diverge sharply by party.

More adults see Trump as focused on his own business interests and those of his inner circle than on the country as a whole or people like them. A majority, 56%, say Trump has prioritized his personal business interests “a lot,” and 54% say the same about the business interests of his friends and family. By comparison, only 23% say he has prioritized the country overall “a lot,” and just 11% say he has prioritized people like them “a lot.” Half of Americans say Trump has not prioritized people like them at all.

Democrats and independents overwhelmingly say Trump has prioritized his own business interests and those of his friends and family “a lot” or “some,” and about half of Republicans agree. Republicans are much more likely than Democrats or independents to say the president has prioritized the country overall or people like them.

Trump fired Kim Guilfoyle as Ambassador to Greece for allegedly selling access. 

Tom Nichols at The Atlantic:

Indeed, by comparison with the charges leveled at others—including against the president himself, who seems utterly unconcerned with notions such as “emoluments”—Guilfoyle is decidedly a small-timer. This past spring, for example, the Financial Times reported that a broker for Pete Hegseth attempted to make a big investment in defense industries just before the Iran war, raising suspicions of insider trading. FBI Director Kash Patel has been accused of using government money as a slush fund to pay improper bonuses to his favorites within the Bureau. “Border Czar” Tom Homan was caught on audio in 2024 accepting $50,000 in cash (wrapped in a Cava food bag, always the sign of a deal on the up-and-up) from undercover FBI agents posing as business executives, and yet he remains in his job. Hegseth and Homan deny any wrongdoing; Patel and the FBI have offered no comment or explanation. And the journalist Dexter Filkins recently described Trump’s son-in-law and roving minister-without-portfolio Jared Kushner as representative of “a new kind of Washington figure, for whom public office serves as a means to extraordinary wealth.”

Guilfoyle may have been a relative piker among giants in the grift game, but her real sin was the pathetic and humiliating nature of her behavior. (Even Homan managed not to seem quite so grubby when reportedly accepting a bag of greenbacks.) Her messages to a Trump donor asking for money to help pay her huge credit-card bills are cringe-inducing. “Honey please I need you to get this done for me today,” she wrote to the Trump supporter Eric Deters when asking him to wire a cool $100,000 directly into her American Express account in July 2025, just before her confirmation hearings.

Worse, she continually told Deters to stop writing things down and just contact her on Signal. “What a nightmare you’ll literally cost me my ambassadorship stop writing,” she said. This was apparently Guilfoyle’s version of the infamous “Stringer Bell rule,” named for a character from the television series The Wire who dressed down one of his drug-dealing accomplices for being stupid enough to keep written notes on a criminal conspiracy. The problem is that she, too, violated that rule: She made her requests to Deters to stop writing things down in writing.