War, Oil, and the Economy: Ominous News

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. 

War and economic woes will hurt the GOP in November.  The only question is how much.

Aaron BoxermanYan Zhuang and Hari Raj at NYT:

U.S. and Iranian forces edged closer to wider war over the weekend after the killing of two American service members in Jordan during an Iranian missile barrage.

They were the first U.S. soldiers killed by hostile fire since a truce with Iran unraveled in recent weeks, bringing the death toll to 16 among U.S. military personnel since the war began in February. Another service member is still missing after Iran on Friday bombarded a military base in Jordan where U.S. forces were stationed.

The deaths of the soldiers capped a week of spiraling attacks that chipped away at what remained of the deal that President Trump agreed to with Iran last month and that was supposed to end the war. Sensitive infrastructure targets like bridges and water facilities have come under fire in Iran and in U.S.-allied countries on the other side of the Persian Gulf

Even as the United States and Iran expanded the scope and intensity of the attacks in the region, there was little sign that diplomatic efforts to end the fighting were gaining traction.

The U.S. military said early on Sunday that it had struck Iranian military coastal surveillance and air defense facilities, as well as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps forces responsible for striking U.S. forces in Jordan.

On Sunday, Iran launched strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, all Middle East countries where the United States maintains a significant military presence. In recent days, critical infrastructure has increasingly come under fire; the Kuwaiti government said on Saturday that an oil facility, as well as a power and water treatment plant, had been attacked.

In an unusual worldwide warning, the State Department said Sunday that Americans traveling abroad should exercise heightened vigilance as tensions in the Middle East had created the “potential for unforeseen escalation.”

Here’s a montage of Trump saying over the past five months that the war with Iran is about to end and that the Iranians want to make a deal “so badly.” https://t.co/dM82kx29yJ pic.twitter.com/NZL0YhNfxb

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) July 18, 2026

Mike Zapler at Axios:

Just when Republicans thought they'd caught a break on gas prices, the collapse of President Trump's Iran deal is derailing their best chance to change the inflation story before the midterms.

Why it matters: Falling gas prices are one of the most tangible ways to ease voter anger over inflation. Renewed combat — and the threat of escalation — has prices shooting back up.

The big picture: Trump has said repeatedly that gas prices will "drop like a rock" when the war is over. But the war doesn't look like it's ending anytime soon.When the U.S. first launched attacks on Feb. 28, average gas prices nationally were $2.98 a gallon, per AAA. They eclipsed $4.50 in May, gradually dropped to about $3.75 earlier this month, and are now flirting with the $4 mark since combat broke out again.

Zoom in: Surprisingly, Americans typically don't punish politicians for their own economic suffering; instead, they tend to look at how government policies are affecting the country overall.But gas prices are a different story, says Stanford's Jon Krosnick, who's studied how they affect politics.

"It's hard to think about any other economic indicator where the number is literally posted on signs on the streets where everybody's traveling," he told Axios.

Corruption Update, Mid-July

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Trump is abusing his power to increase his wealth.

Bernard Condon at AP:

America’s first billionaire president may soon be profiting from a new line of business tied to his office: charging access for a first peek at certain posts on his Truth Social platform.

Donald Trump's struggling media company plans to sell Wall Street traders the chance to see posts from “highest-ranking” accounts — including possibly his own — milliseconds before others.

That could mean big money for them, and Trump.

Trump's posts are often important enough to rattle financial markets, sending prices soaring and plunging within seconds. Until this moment, presidential policy announcements were considered sort of public property that should be free and available to all at the same time.

Casey Tolan and Isabelle Chapman at CNN:

President Donald Trump hopped on Truth Social last year to share some “very big and exciting news.” Nvidia, the computer chip manufacturing behemoth, had just announced plans to build AI supercomputers in the United States.

“All necessary permits will be expedited and quickly delivered” to Nvidia and similar companies, Trump vowed in the April 15, 2025 post to his more than nine million followers.

What the president didn’t disclose at the time was that days earlier, he had purchased between $200,000 and $500,000 of the company’s stock.

A CNN investigation found that Trump has promoted more than 20 companies on his Truth Social account days after buying stock in those firms – at times announcing government actions that could benefit the companies he just invested in.

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Trump’s assets are “held in fully discretionary accounts managed by independent third-party financial institutions,” said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly. “President Trump only acts in the best interests of the American public – which is why they overwhelmingly re-elected him to this office, despite years of lies and false accusations against him and his businesses from the fake news media. There are no conflicts of interest.”

But unlike many past presidents, Trump has not placed his assets in a blind trust — meaning he can know which stocks his money managers are buying or selling. It’s not clear whether Trump was aware of any of his purchases when he was posting about the companies.

Aaron Blake at CNN:

Trump, through his revocable trust, is the largest shareholder in the Trump Media & Technology Group, which owns Truth Social. And Trump Media just announced that a new data feed, known as an API, will be for sale next month.

The API gives firms real-time data from the 10 most popular Truth Social accounts — the most popular of which is, of course, Trump’s. Such firms use these feeds to scan for signals and execute trades automatically, before other investors can catch up.

Trump routinely uses his Truth Social account to make major announcements and send signals about his intentions.

Often, those signals actually seem intended to move markets. Witness just how much his posts about the Iran war were timed as markets were opening or closing for the weekend.

And in announcing the new API, Trump Media actually played up how much Truth Social impacts the markets.

“Markets already move on Truth Social posts,” said Kevin McGurn, its interim CEO.

Trump's Election Speech: Malevolence Tempered by Incompetence

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. 

David E. Sanger and Dustin Volz:

For years, President Trump has offered a hodgepodge of conspiracy theories and baseless charges to support his falsehood that the 2020 election was stolen from him, and that America’s election system was hijacked by a combination of outside powers and “deep state” insiders.

But when he declassified a raft of intelligence reports, hastily drafted emails between officials at the F.B.I. and other agencies, and formal “assessments” late Thursday, he was unable to prove his case.

An examination of the more than 270 pages of evidence released by the White House supports the broad conclusions already announced in 2020 and 2021, albeit with some finer details. For example, China considered modest attempts to influence opinion in the United States, and downloaded publicly available voter rolls from several states, but never manipulated a single voting machine or ballot.

Even new assertions, such as a document from the Department of Homeland Security claiming to have found more than 250,000 noncitizens registered in California, New Jersey, Nevada and Pennsylvania, came devoid of supporting evidence and immediately was met with pushback from state officials.

 

The documents are so damning in refuting Trump's own case that I wonder if anyone in the White House actually read them (or understood what they were looking at) https://t.co/8jUP0zVMTp

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) July 17, 2026

The Economy Will be a Problem for the GOP

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. 

At WP, Dan Balz and Scott Clement report that Trump's approval rating is stuck at 37%.

Assessments of Trump’s handling of the economy and Iran are worse than his overall ratings, with 33 percent of Americans saying they approve of his economic stewardship and 29 percent approving of his conduct in overseeing the war with Iran. Immigration is a relative strength, with 40 percent approving. That is unchanged from a low point in February but significantly lower than at the beginning of his current term, when 50 percent approved of his immigration actions.

...

Most Americans now doubt their living standards will improve. Asked whether they and their families will “have a good chance of improving your standard of living,” 40 percent said yes and 59 percent said no. In 2018, during Trump’s first term, 65 percent responded positively to a similar question in the long-running General Social Survey.

A new high of 43 percent say they are “not as well off” as when Trump returned to office, a 12-point increase since February and on par with views toward the Biden administration. In 2018, only 13 percent said they were worse off than when Trump began his first term.

Two-thirds of Americans say groceries are unaffordable (66 percent), up from 45 percent before the war began in February. Inflation data doesn’t show a sharp increase in grocery prices, but this might reflect the broader impact of months of higher prices for gas and other items.

A year ago, the Republican-controlled Congress passed, and Trump signed, what they then called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The measure extended tax cuts approved during Trump’s first term and included a variety of other tax and spending measures. Republicans have since begun calling the bill the “working families tax cut,” hoping that rebranding will reshape public opinion about the bill.

The strategy is not working, with 19 percent saying they paid less in taxes due to the measure while 25 percent think they paid more in taxes, according to the Post-Ipsos survey. Another 25 percent say they see no difference, and 30 percent say they are unsure what impact the bill had on their taxes. Even among Republicans, about as many say they saw their taxes increase or did not change as said they paid less in taxes.

David Goldman at CNN:

The largest-ever global oil supply shortage has topped economists’ lists of concerns since the start of the Iran war. But even as the United States and Iran resumed their blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil surging above $80 a barrel the economy faces a new problem.

Gasoline. That is, the world’s ability to make it.

The hundreds of millions of barrels of oil that exited the Persian Gulf and hit the market over the past few weeks helped add cushion to the world’s supply of oil — but they aren’t good for much of anything on their own. Oil needs to be refined into products and fuels people can use, including asphalt, plastic, heating oil, jet fuel, diesel and gasoline.

But the world’s refining capacity is deeply constrained. That’s in part because the supply chain got messed up during the war. It’s also because Iran attacked dozens of Middle Eastern refineries. And, more recently, Ukraine started blowing up Russian energy facilities.

Layer on extreme temperatures disrupting the cool conditions refineries need for proper distillation, and you’ve got yourself a big problem. Global refineries are processing 8.4 million fewer barrels of crude each day than they were before the war started — making 10% less fuel, according to Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan.

Lisa Friedman and Rebecca F. Elliott at NYT

President Trump’s first naval blockade on Iranian ports in April caused oil prices to rise, but not to the stratospheric levels some feared. And Tehran’s oil exports plunged, depriving Iran of billions in revenue.

The strategy may be harder to pull off a second time without inflicting broader collateral damage to markets.

U.S. oil reserves, which have been steadily drawn down since the start of the war to help combat global shortages, are now at their lowest levels since 1983. Commercial inventories also have been run down. And other oil-producing countries in the region may have a harder time getting their ships out because of the heightened risks.

Another wild card is China. Usually the world’s largest oil importer, China has been helping to keep oil prices at bay by significantly decreasing imports of crude. New data on Tuesday showed that pattern held at least through June. But China might not continue on that path.

The Akin Ploy in the WI Governor Race

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  

In the 2012 Missouri  Senate race, incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill ran ads during the GOP primary campaign saying that Todd Akin was "too conservative."  The idea of the "attack ad" was to drive GOP voters to Akin, her weakest potential foe.  It worked.  Other campaigns have tried variations of the "pick your opponent" ploy.  And it has happened in 2025 and 2026. (See the LA Mayor race.)

A network of GOP groups is supporting beatable candidates in Democratic primaries.

Kellen Browning at NYT:

A super PAC tied to Republicans is spending $2.2 million on television advertisements that appear to be aimed at boosting the chances of Francesca Hong, a Democratic candidate for governor in Wisconsin.

Some Democrats in the state have fretted over the prospect that Ms. Hong, a democratic socialist with unabashedly left-wing views in a distinctly purple state, might advance out of a crowded August primary — and then deliver the governor’s mansion to Representative Tom Tiffany, the likely Republican nominee, in November.

Republicans appear to agree. The PAC running a new ad about Ms. Hong, Right Direction Wisconsin, is tied to the Republican Governors Association. The 30-second ad, which will begin airing on Thursday in liberal parts of the state, including Madison and Milwaukee, criticizes Ms. Hong for being too liberal, in what appears to be a counterintuitive strategy to grow her appeal among Democratic primary voters.

Both parties have used similarly misleading tactics in the opposing party’s primaries around the country this year, seeking to boost candidates they perceive as weak in general-election matchups.

Family Succession

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  The sudden death of Lindsey Graham was a shock to the system.

A total of 48 women have been elected or appointed to fill congressional vacancies created by the deaths of their husbands, 8 to the U.S. Senate and 40 to the U. S. House of Representatives.

Less often, other family members have succeeded deceased lawmakers:  According to Claude:

Vetted father-son and father-daughter congressional successions, excluding edge cases

Here's a rundown, organized by relationship, of family members other than widows who directly succeeded a deceased House member or senator (via special election or gubernatorial appointment):

Sister succeeding brother: Darline Graham Nordone was appointed just this week (July 13, 2026) by South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster to fill the Senate seat of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died suddenly on July 12. Graham never married or had children; McMaster's pick to serve out the remainder of his term, which runs through January 2027, is his adopted-and-raised younger sister. She's set to be the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate. CBS News 

• Sons succeeding fathers: John Dingell Jr. won a 1955 special election to succeed his father, John Dingell Sr., in Michigan's 15th District — beginning a Dingell family run in that seat that lasted decades. Wikipedia: John Dingell
• Donald Payne Jr. won a 2012 special election to succeed his father, Donald Payne Sr., in New Jersey's 10th District. Payne won the general election 56-44 percent and never faced a competitive race again. Wikipedia: Donald Payne Jr. Insideelections

Daughters succeeding fathers:

• Adelita Grijalva was elected in 2025 to succeed her father, Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), after his death — though her swearing-in was delayed several weeks by Speaker Mike Johnson during a government shutdown. House.gov coverage / AP via WSB-TV WSB-TV
• Marcye Scott is currently running (special election set for July 28, 2026) to succeed her father, the late Rep. David Scott (D-GA), who died in April 2026 — not yet resolved, but worth flagging since it's live right now. WSB-TV

Daughter succeeding mother: Erica Lee Carter won a November 2024 special election to succeed her mother, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX), after Jackson Lee's death from pancreatic cancer — the first (and so far only) daughter to succeed her mother in Congress. House.gov: Family Firsts U.S. House of Representatives

Changing Identity Pollitics

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it covers voter demographics.

Mike Madrid:

Pew Research is the gold standard of Latino public opinion research in this country. When Pew releases a new National Survey of Latinos, people in my line of work stop what they’re doing and read it. Their new report, “U.S. Hispanics Are Divided on Whether Their Identity Helps or Hurts Them in America,” is one of those studies. It confirms something I have argued for years, most fully in my book The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority is Transforming Democracy. Latinos are changing identity politics in this country. But they are not changing it in the direction either party wants to believe.

The topline numbers in the Pew study tell the story. Sixty-one percent of Hispanic adults say being Hispanic is an extremely or very important part of how they think about themselves. That is a real number. Identity still matters to most Latinos. But ask whether that identity helps or hurts their chances of getting ahead in America, and the answer splits three ways: 26 percent say it helps, 33 percent say it hurts, 40 percent say it makes no difference at all. There is no consensus here. There is no single Latino experience for either party to build a coalition around, whether that coalition is built on grievance or on advantage.

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Generation tells the same story from a different angle. Seventy-one percent of Hispanic immigrants say their identity is extremely or very important to them. That falls to 57 percent among the second generation and 51 percent among the third generation or higher. Ask if they consider themselves “a typical American,” and the numbers move in the opposite direction: 27 percent of immigrants say yes, 60 percent of the second generation, 72 percent of the third generation and beyond. Distance from the immigrant experience is doing more to shape Latino identity than party registration is.

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Equis surveyed 2,000 registered Latino voters in May 2026 and asked them, without prompting, what they consider the most important issue facing the country. The answer is not immigration. It is not close. Economy and jobs came in first at 29 percent. Cost of living followed at 24 percent. National security came in third at 14 percent, and concerns about the erosion of democracy and government overreach came in fourth at 13 percent. Immigration enforcement and ICE registered at just 6 percent. Border security, counted separately, came in at 7 percent. Even added together, the two immigration categories trail the top issues badly.