The Corruption Issue

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Along with war and inflation, Trump's corruption is bringing down the GOP.

Dan Merica at WP:

Democrats across the country are coalescing around a closing message in the midterm elections that accuses Republicans of flagrant corruption, tying the attack to the billions President Donald Trump has made during his second term and arguing that, unlike in the past, this issue is costing voters money.

The president made more than $1.4 billion from cryptocurrency alone in 2025. Over one dozen companies with investment funds tied to Trump’s sons amassed $3.2 billion in federal contracts, loans and investments. And Trump says his son recently paid back the well-connected Russian businessman who funded his wedding celebrations.

Voters’ feelings that politicians are corrupt have grown more prevalent in recent years. Nearly 90 percent of U.S. adults said corruption was widespread in government, according to a Gallup poll released this month, a 10-point jump from last year.
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But the difference in Democratic messaging this year is that the party is linking headlines about the Trump family’s growing wealth with the way people feel like costs are hurting them every day.

“Trump’s corruption has really put the issue front and center,” said Lauren French, a spokesperson for the Senate Majority PAC, the top Democratic super PAC focused on taking back the legislative chamber. “What we are seeing is if the 2018 elections were a response to the chaos of Trump 1, these elections are about the corruption of Trump 2.”

The focus has been particularly pronounced in Senate races, where French’s group has advised political operatives nationwide to “amplify” their focus on corruption by tying it to rising costs.

In a strategy memo sent to operatives this week, and shared first with this newsletter, the super PAC reports that its research shows voters believe “corruption is a problem that personally raises their own costs, and the top reason by far is that it drives up the price of everyday goods: gas, groceries, utilities, housing.” The group advises candidates to keep costs front and center while focused on corruption, but suggests labeling Republicans as “corrupt politicians” while linking their opponents to what voters view as Trump’s own self-dealing.

The group has put this strategy behind the tens of millions they plan to spend on ads this cycle.

Timelines and Economic Benefits

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

President Donald Trump is steeling Republicans for a tough midterm contest.

The president today unveiled a plan to build a massive, $15 billion steel plant in Iowa — a major job creator he cast as an example of his success in reshoring domestic manufacturing as economic anxieties snarl his party’s prospects in the midterms. The plant — the largest in U.S. history — will be built by the Minnesota-based Mesabi Metallics and support more than 6,000 construction jobs and nearly 2,000 manufacturing and mining jobs, adding $95 billion to the U.S. economy, Trump said during a news conference in the Oval Office.

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The struggle for Trump is that the timelines of factory building — and the jobs they create — rarely align with the country’s biennial election cycle. The Iowa plant isn’t expected to begin producing steel until 2030 — during the first midterm year for Trump’s successor. Other major manufacturing announcements the White House has made, including multiple auto plants in Michigan, aren’t expected to commence production until 2027, 2028 and 2029.

Compare that to the much more reactive time frames during which two of Trump’s other top presidential priorities — heaping restrictive tariffs on countries he claims have treated the U.S. unfairly and launching an unpopular war with Iran he’s been unable to end — have rattled global markets and sent domestic prices soaring.

Flailing

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

Trump keeps making things worse for his party.  In Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina, he supported the nomination of dubious Republican candidates who could lose otherwise winnable races.  In Florida, he is attacking a Republican who faces a tight contest.

He is flailing.

Riley Beggin at WP:

First came a proposal to permit tariff-free beef imports, but that immediately angered America’s farmers and ranchers.

Then came a plan to ban exports of domestic diesel fuel, but that met with pushback from major oil companies.

In between, President Donald Trump pitched the idea of simply cutting $5,000 checks to adult Americans frustrated, polls show, by high food and gas prices — if the GOP maintains control of Congress. But that idea, too, has come under fire, even from some Republican lawmakers concerned about the potential hit to the budget deficit.

With just five weeks until Election Day, the White House has thrown out multiple ideas for combating persistent inflation, which has outpaced wage growth. But experts say it is unclear whether Trump can execute any policy that would placate inflation-weary voters and help the GOP maintain control of Congress.

“These are symptoms of panic in the administration about problems that they have in part created,” said David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution.

Inflation has been running over the Federal Reserve’s target rate since 2021, but an array of Trump policies have fed the problem, economists say. Trump’s decision to join Israel in going to war with Iran has disrupted the global oil supply, leading to elevated energy rates. His tariffs have produced higher prices for some imported goods. And his administration’s immigration crackdown has made low-cost labor harder to find, keeping price pressures on domestic companies high.

Trump's Self-Sabotage Continues

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

Trump keeps making things worse for his party.  In Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina, he supported the nomination of dubious Republican candidates who could lose otherwise winnable races.  In Florida, he is attacking a Republican who faces a tight contest.

Aleena Fayaz  at CNN:

President Donald Trump appeared to intensify his irritation with GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar on Saturday evening after reposting a series of social media attacks on the congresswoman who made waves last week for breaking with him on his immigration tactics.

The president shared in quick succession on Truth Social at least 14 posts from other users critical of Salazar, who is facing a tough reelection race in Florida as Republicans’ midterm fortunes decline.

“She is nothing but a back stabber. I’m glad the Latino support hasn’t wavered,” one user wrote in a post shared by Trump.

Another user slammed the congresswoman: “She wants amnesty for the ppl how criminally crossed our borders defying our laws.”

“So we need a NEW Republican to Replace Salazar,” different user said

Jacob Ogles at Florida Politics:

One of the nation’s top political prognosticators sees two Republican incumbents in trouble in Florida, and one open race tied. Based on Cook Political Report’s current ratings, it’s possible Republicans net no seats from a new congressional map.

The top election rater shifted 15 House races in Democrats’ direction. That included saying Republican U.S. Reps. Anna Paulina Luna in Florida’s 13th Congressional District and María Elvira Salazar in Florida’s 27th Congressional District now sit in “Lean R” territory.

That means they hold edges on respective Democratic challengers Leela Gray and Eliott Rodriguez, but are more imperiled in a climate increasingly hostile to Republicans.

 

Craptastic Outlook for GOP

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Along with war and inflation, Trump's corruption is bringing down the GOP.  Some lawmakers are starting to act.

Marc Caputo, Hans Nichols, Alex Isenstadt at Axios:

This week,

• Trump's disapproval rating hit 60.4%, the worst mark of his two terms in office, including the aftermath of the Jan. 6 riots.
• Gas prices are over $4 a gallon, diesel has hit $6.50 and no relief is in sight.
• Seven months in, the U.S. is locked in a standoff with Iran with no apparent exit strategy.
• Grocery prices are still rising year over year.
• Mortgage rates hit 7%.
• And the cost of borrowing across the economy continues to climb.

Enter the elections: The problems for the GOP are everywhere. In the battle for the Senate, once ruby-red Texas looks more in play than ever, and Florida isn't far behind. Nor is Alaska. North Carolina and Georgia look lost. Maine is problematic.The Senate GOP campaign arm is begging donors for another $8.9 million to defend Senate seats in three states that Trump won by double digits two years ago — Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
"We're having problems just getting Republican voters to respond to polls," said one national Republican pollster. "At what point do we think these guys aren't showing up at the actual polls on Election Day?"
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On the House side, the Cook Political Report moved 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday.Democrats need to net just three seats to win control of the chamber.
Republicans are now playing defense deep in red America. GOP-aligned groups are spending money in more than a half-dozen districts that Trump won by at least 15 points in 2024.

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What they're saying: "While many have long predicted that Democrats will enjoy a 'blue wave' election, I think of it more as a 'red undertow,' which will pull many Republicans under and significantly trim the margins for many others, said the Cook Report's founder and top elections handicapper Charlie Cook.That's an implied reminder that Democrats' favorability ratings aren't good; they're just better than Republicans'.

"Over the last 90 days," Cook added, "President Trump's political standing has transitioned from very unpopular to toxic and now to radioactive."

Said another consultant involved with races across the country: "Things were bad. But they started to go worse recently and if it keeps on this track, it's gonna be real bad."

The environment is starting to rival the second midterm election of President George W. Bush's tenure in 2006, the consultant said, amid the Iraq war and the botched response to Hurricane Katrina. Republicans lost control of both chambers after losing 30 House seats and six Senate seats."The numbers are somewhere between shitabulous and craptastic," a top Republican advising several federal races across the country told Axios. "It looks worse than 2018 now. Trump is heading to Bush 2006 levels."

State of play: More and more lately, Republican incumbents are running for cover from Trump.In Iowa, two House Republicans have switched their positions to support a war powers resolution on Iran.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, who rode the 1980 Republican wave to the Senate, and Rep. Ashley Hinson, who's running for Iowa's other Senate seat, are demanding restrictions on diesel exports.

Panic Mode

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Along with war and inflation, Trump's corruption is bringing down the GOP.  Some lawmakers are starting to act.

Megan Messerly, Alex Gangitano and Myah Ward at POLITICO:

Six weeks until the midterm elections, administration officials are pulling policy levers they otherwise might not to help vulnerable Republicans in key congressional races. They’re weighing a 90-day ban on diesel exports in an effort to drive down energy prices, considering backpedaling on a plan to import foreign beef and giving candidates wiggle room to criticize a war with Iran that President Donald Trump continues to stress was necessary to prevent the country from obtaining nuclear weapons.


Trump, never shy about attacking Republicans who disagree with him, has recently swallowed dissent so long as candidates criticize his policies and not him personally. Some campaigns are even giving the White House a heads up before staking out positions different from the president’s.

“More often times than not, a candidate or an elected official will call the White House and ask how to do it, because they are not interested in going against the president,” said one person familiar with the White House’s thinking, who like others in this story was granted anonymity to describe private conversations.

The White House’s latest posture represents a remarkable change for an administration that in its decisionmaking has often put Trump’s priorities ahead of what would be politically advantageous to Republicans in tight elections. But inside the West Wing, a new reality — informed in part by polling — has taken hold as the administration grapples with far more competitive races than had been expected only a few months ago.

Some Hill Republicans Edge Way from Trump

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The first year of the second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist. Along with war and inflation, Trump's corruption is bringing down the GOP.  Some lawmakers are starting to act.

Olivia Diaz st NYT:

A Republican senator on Tuesday called for the Senate to investigate whether Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, exploited his access to his father for personal gain, spurred by reports that a Russian oligarch funded a lavish wedding after-party for the younger Mr. Trump.

In a three-page letter, Senator John Curtis, Republican of Utah, urged the Judiciary Committee to subpoena Donald Trump Jr., after it was revealed that a Russian businessman with ties to the Kremlin paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for the festivities on an island in the Bahamas this year.

Issuing such a subpoena would be exceedingly unlikely by the Republican-led panel, and top Republicans would not say on Tuesday whether they planned to take action. But the request by Mr. Curtis marked a rare instance of a G.O.P. lawmaker daring to challenge the president.

The president has said that his son would repay the Russian businessman, Umar Kremlev, for what he called a wedding gift. But Mr. Curtis rejected that characterization.

“A toaster is a wedding gift,” the senator said in a social media post. “A private-island party paid for by a Putin-connected oligarch is something else. Republicans nearly wore out the subpoena machine investigating Hunter Biden’s foreign relationships. We should not unplug it now.”

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The Utah Republican’s call for an inquiry came as a growing group of Republicans has become more emboldened about breaking with the president ahead of November’s elections. Representative Ashley Hinson of Iowa, a Republican running for the Senate, called on Mr. Trump on Monday to end the war with Iran. That came just days after two other G.O.P. lawmakers from Iowa who are battling for re-election, Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, crossed party lines to help push through a Democratic measure directing Mr. Trump to halt the conflict.

Late conversion does not always work, however.

Mariana Alfaro at WP

In South Florida, Rep. María Elvira Salazar’s latest campaign ad seems to be all voters can talk about.

The Republican’s video, released last week, was shot in front of the White House, not in the sun-blazed streets of Miami-Dade County. Though aimed at frustrated voters, it was framed as a direct appeal to President Donald Trump.

“Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,” Salazar says while looking directly at the camera. She goes on to tell Trump that his advisers are giving him bad advice, and that his immigration policies are weakening Republicans’ standing with the Latino voters who helped power GOP gains in 2024.

But many Latino voters in Salazar’s district said she has misread their sentiment and that their support for Trump has not wavered. Their support for their congresswoman, however, has waned, they said — and the ad did nothing to restore their confidence.

“She’s out of line,” said Hector Rubio, a resident of Miami’s wealthy enclave of Key Biscayne. Rubio, a longtime Republican voter who supported Salazar in the past three races, said in Spanish that Trump “is doing what he can, and he could do even more.” As he watched his wife shop in the neighborhood’s busy farmers market on Saturday morning, Rubio advised Salazar to stick close to Trump.

Even those who agreed with Salazar’s message seemed to find fault in it, with many saying the lawmaker should have made her appeal to Trump earlier.

“Her blind support of Trump has me very disturbed. She’s not thinking for herself,” said Charles Parsons, 83, another Key Biscayne resident who voted for Salazar in the past but said Saturday that he will not support her this year, even though he plans to vote for other Florida Republicans on the ballot. “All she’s thinking about is her political survival, and this ad … does nothing more than exacerbate the wound for me.”

"We're gonna get crushed"

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging. Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

Mychael Schnell at MS NOW:

There are just six weeks to go until the midterm elections. The national average for a gallon of gas is just a couple cents short of $4.50. Diesel has climbed above $6.50. And Republicans are officially freaking out.

Last week, House GOP lawmakers got into a heated shouting match over what to do about one of the party’s biggest vulnerabilities — those soaring gas prices — with a private meeting ending without a path forward.

Vice President JD Vance traveled to Kansas to campaign for Republicans on the ballot, a sign of the increasingly competitive environment even in reliably red territories. And after months of speculation that he may not spend, President Donald Trump is unleashing tens of millions of dollars from his super PAC, trying to give struggling candidates a late boost.

Publicly, Republicans are putting on a brave face, insisting that Democratic dreams of a wave election are far from certain. But privately, GOP lawmakers say they see the writing on the wall, recognizing that even some relatively safe districts could be vulnerable.

“We’re gonna get crushed,” one House Republican told MS NOW. “The only question is by how much.”

This GOP lawmaker, who was granted anonymity to discuss the internal dynamics, called this midterm cycle “a gasoline and ground beef election.”

“And when you’ve got ground beef at $9 a pound and diesel at $6.50 to $7.50. We’re getting screwed,” the member said.

Another House Republican, who was also granted anonymity, told MS NOW that if you’re a Republican and you’re not concerned, “you’re stupid.”

“On the macro level, yes, they’re concerned, of course they should be,” the lawmaker said. “But is there still hope? Absolutely. Are many of these races within striking distance? They are, if you believe polling.”

That anxiety for Republicans is taking hold with just 42 days until the midterms, and polls showing Democrats with a solid advantage nationally.

As Fall Begins

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

Bruce Mehlman:

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1. Diesel Price/Gal: January forecast $3.41. September reality $6.39.

2. Midterm Prospects: In January, Dems had an 18% shot at the Senate per Kalshi. On Friday it hit 60%, and Dems’ generic ballot lead doubled.

Sources: RCP generic ballot poll aggregation; Kalshi (Senate & House)

3. The Fed: In February, markets bet on a cut. In September, the Fed hiked. Today 87% predict another hike this year.

Trump's Self-Sabotage

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

That said, the messaging is pretty bad, too.

Aaron Blake at CNN on Trump's self-sabotage:

Polling in recent months has shown:

• 67% of Americans said he doesn’t carefully consider important decisions.
• 71% said he’s not “even-tempered.”
• And more than 7 in 10 adults and registered voters said he doesn’t even have a plan for the Iran war, according to both Fox News and CNN polling.

And in the runup to the 2026 midterm elections, he’s doing very little to disabuse people of these notions.

Trump’s offer of $5,000 to every adult US citizen if Republicans keep their House and Senate majorities is certainly a quid pro quo. Registered voters say 66%-18% that it’s “inappropriate.”

His joke-y threat Wednesday to withhold disaster aid from North Carolina if it elects a Democratic senator is also eyebrow-raising. Trump said he was kidding, but his track record makes clear his administration has discriminated against blue states on such things. And it’s a pretty unfunny thing to even joke about.

His tale ahead of the 9/11 anniversary about firefighters carrying him away amid fears of a building collapse was unconfirmed and misleading at best, as CNN’s Daniel Dale wrote. And to the extent the story is embellished, it sounds a lot like the president stealing valor.

Trump also claimed this week that the 2024 assassination attempt against him in Butler, Pennsylvania, was “a Democrat Plot, to get me out of the Election” — an explosive claim, if there were any truth to it. But there remains no evidence that any Democrats were involved and he didn’t provide any more detail. Indeed, attempted assassin Thomas Crooks was a registered Republican. And even the same day as Trump’s comments, FBI Director Kash Patel testified that there was “no evidence” that Crooks “was literally even speaking to any other human being other than his parents.”

Trump repeatedly threatened to halt large portions of US foreign trade — including with all countries with whom the US has a trade deficit — if the Federal Reserve doesn’t lower interest rates. “If we stop trading with every country that we have a deficit with, which is most of them, and which would be very easy to do, we’d make at least $1.5 trillion a year,” Trump claimed Wednesday in North Carolina. That logic makes no sense.

By Friday, Trump suddenly announced he was “banning” CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House “effective immediately,” catching even some of his own staff off guard. A CNN reporter was denied access to White House grounds Saturday morning and her press pass was seized. A reporter for Politico and a reporter and photographer for MS NOW were also denied access.

Trump Kinda Knows What's Coming

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  In 2024, the book explains, the Democrats' problems involved reality, not just messaging.  Two years later, Republicans own the reality problems, including the Iran quagmire and the resulting economic pain.

Natalie Allison and Isaac Arnsdorf at WP:

In interviews and speeches, President Donald Trump has maintained that midterm politics don’t affect his decisions on Iran, that the war has been worth the cost, and that he would do it all over again despite Republicans bracing for defeat in November.

But in some private conversation with advisers, Trump has signaled that he understands his decisions on the war have contributed to the especially poor political environment his party faces — making the president more intent on helping Republicans mitigate the expected losses.

Trump in recent weeks has become sober about the gravity of the political situation, listening intently as he is presented with often discouraging polling, according to four people with knowledge of his recent comments, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. That shift has prompted him to take more action on the midterms — pledging to stump for candidates and opening his war chest in competitive races, for example — although it remains to be seen how effectively Republicans can gain ground over the next six weeks.

Trump has long dismissed unfavorable polls, fastening his attention on surveys that present him in an artificially positive light. He often says that negative surveys are fake and not to be believed. Increasingly, however, he has accepted his team’s polling that shows his and his party’s poor standing with voters, his advisers say.

Several of Trump’s advisers said they had become “increasingly blunt” with him, as one put it, and that in recent weeks he was listening to them about the electoral reality the GOP faces. It didn’t always translate to a good mood for Trump.

 

Pre-Election House Turnover

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Drew DeSilver at Pew:

With primary season in the United States now over, control of the House of Representatives is still very much up for grabs. But before a single general-election vote has been tallied, 74 House members are already heading out the door – more than before any general election since 1992.

Near-record number of House members already on their way out the door
Number of House members who lost or gave up their seats

As of now, 42 Republicans and 32 Democrats won’t be returning to the House next year. That’s because they ran or are running for some other office instead; failed to win their primaries; resigned and haven’t been replaced via special election; or simply decided to retire from the House.

In 1992, 86 members were on their way out before the general election – more than in any election since. That election year was the first after House districts were redrawn following the 1990 census, which on its own created churn as states gained or lost seats and many incumbents found themselves in unfamiliar territory. In addition, the House banking scandal fueled widespread public outrage. In the end, 110 members either gave up or lost their seats, including 24 losses in the general election.About this research

This Pew Research Center analysis looks at how many U.S. House members have lost or given up their seats during primary season and how that compares with previous election cycles.

We looked at the outcomes of every individual House race for each election year since 1992 (the modern record for House turnover). For each year, we determined whether each incumbent sought reelection; ran for some other office instead; won or lost their primary; and won or lost the general election.

We treated representatives elected in special elections before the general election the same as other incumbents. We counted House members who resigned, died, or were expelled and whose seats had not been filled by special election before the general election as non-returning incumbents.

A notable driver of this year’s departures is the 28 members who chose to run for other offices rather than seek reelection. That’s the most in any election cycle we studied. By comparison, only 15 House members ran for other offices in the record-turnover year of 1992.