Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. Despite D weakness in some polls, off-year and special elections have turned out badly for the GOP.
Democrats narrowed Republicans’ U.S. House majority and flipped a state Senate seat on conservative terrain in a pair of Saturday special election runoffs with national implications.
Democrat Christian Menefee won the special election runoff Saturday for Texas’s 18th Congressional District, paring House Republicans’ slim advantage by securing a long-vacant seat in a heavily Democratic area. In a second election runoff in Tarrant County, which includes Fort Worth, Democrats won a notable upset, with Taylor Rehmet defeating Republican Leigh Wambsganss in a district where President Donald Trump won by 17 points in 2024.
In special elections and other local races over the past year, Democrats have largely outperformed Republicans. National Democratic leaders have pointed to the results, including Rehmet’s win, along with sweeping victories in last fall’s elections, as reasons for optimism headed into this fall’s midterms. Democrats are hoping in November to capitalize on anger at Trump’s agenda. Republicans will try to defy recent political trends and hold on to their control of Congress.
Republican leaders, concerned that a defeat could bring an influx of Democratic investment into Texas races in 2026, tried to rally support for Ms. Wambsganss. She received an endorsement from President Trump and the backing of prominent conservative leaders in Texas, including Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. The chairman of the Republican National Committee met with Ms. Wambsganss last week.
The unusually timed election attracted low turnout in a district of Tarrant County that includes portions of Fort Worth and its northern suburbs. Mr. Patrick, in the run up to the race, pleaded with Republicans to vote in the special election, which fell on a Saturday. Mr. Trump also urged voters to vote in a social media post on Friday.
“You can win this election for Leigh, who has my complete and total endorsement,” Mr. Trump wrote.
Sometimes it's easy to dismiss upsets in state legislative elections because the constituencies are tiny. Not so here: with 940k residents apiece, Texas State Senate districts are more populous than US House districts and even some states. About 94k people voted in this one, a decent turnout for a special in January.
