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Showing posts with label congressional elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label congressional elections. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Town Halls 2025

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American PoliticsIt includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Maya C. Miller at CalMatters:

Rep. Doug LaMalfa, the Republican who represents much of California’s rural north, had barely begun his prepared remarks at a town hall in Chico early Monday when a chorus of boos and jeers overpowered him.

The raucous interjections didn’t relent for nearly 90 minutes.

The crowd of more than 650 people at the local Elks Lodge peppered him with obscenity-laden comments and slammed him for his vote for President Donald Trump’s budget bill, which cuts more than $1.1 trillion in federal spending for Medicaid, Medicare and plans under the Affordable Care Act over the next decade. The crowd excoriated LaMalfa for supporting legislation they said will “devastate” rural hospitals and hurt vulnerable people with disabilities and poor families.

But LaMalfa claimed the legislation makes “no cuts to the people themselves” in California’s Medicaid program, known as Medi-Cal, and instead only targets “waste, fraud and abuse” – a common and misleading line that House Republicans across the country have employed to defend the legislation.

...

The in-person, open mic town hall has gradually become a relic in the age of social media, as fewer elected officials are willing to prostrate themselves in today’s hyperpartisan era. House Republicans even discouraged their members from hosting face-to-face forums after a wave of negative headlines out of viral town hall confrontations – including with their own GOP supporters – earlier this year.


Nicholas Wu, Cassandra Dumay and Mia McCarthy at Politico:

Such scenes of angry constituents confronting lawmakers are nothing new. They were commonplace in 2009 as Democrats pressed forward with a health care overhaul and in 2017 when Republicans sought to undo it.


This time around, there is a fierce debate underway about whether the town hall explosions are part of a genuine backlash to GOP governance in Washington — one that could presage another wave election as seen in 2010 and 2018 — or just another reflection of America’s political polarization.

Many Republicans are dismissing the outbursts, concluding they have been choreographed by Democrats and groups aligned with them and do not reflect genuine voter sentiment. Some — including Trump — have claimed without evidence that paid protesters are responsible.

I think Democrats have been organized to actually act out in town halls, and I think if you’re going to have a town hall where you’re inviting people to come in with the intent of protesting, that’s what you’re going to get,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said Tuesday.

But left-of-center activists say the GOP dismisses voters’ outrage at their peril. Groups might be helping to publicize and organize protests around lawmakers’ events, they say, but that is merely harnessing a real grass-roots backlash to what Republicans are pursuing in Washington.

Monday, August 11, 2025

Robo-Gerrymander

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American PoliticsIt includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Bruce Mehlman:
Researchers were using high-performance computing and big data to discover new materials and analyze proteins before AI… but AI massively accelerated & improved such data-intensive efforts. Gerrymandering dates to 1812 in the U.S. Party strategists have been leveraging voter data and computing to draw advantageous maps for decades. AI promises gerrymandering on steroids — weapons of mass division in the 2025 redistricting wars — with powerful AI models able to (1) precisely-sift unprecedented amounts and unprecedentedly-personal data, (2) compare unlimited potential maps to optimize outcomes. But while AI-enabled cramming could reduce the paltry 20% of seats that are currently competitive, AI-drawn maps might also create more competitive seats by shifting voters out of safer seats (where risk-averse incumbent politicians often prefer them).

Sunday, August 10, 2025

Cornyn, Paxton, and the Attention Economy

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American PoliticsIt includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

At Politico, Adam Wren notes that Democratic Senate candidates are mismatched in the attention economy.
ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE: A similar gap exists on the right, as Cornyn faces a primary challenge from Texas AG Ken Paxton. Senate Republicans would much prefer Cornyn, worrying that Paxton could lose to a Democrat in the general under the right conditions.

But Paxton has adapted to our new, disruptive attention-based political era. He has run to where MAGA eyeballs are. Yes, that means doing hits on Fox News, but it also means going into less-mainstream media appearances, including as a guest on Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast. “We had you really early on this — before it got kicked off,” Bannon told Paxton in a gerrymandering-centric appearance earlier this week, effectively vouching for his MAGA bona fides.

Cornyn has taken a more institutionalist approach. Perhaps his most prominent foray into the redistricting fight came in the form of a sternly worded letter to the FBI asking for their help in tracking down the absconding Texas Dems. To be fair, that move was successful in generating its own earned media and resulted in the FBI approving a request to locate the contingent of quorum-breaking Democrats, though it remains unclear what that means in practicality and the FBI is declining to comment, as POLITICO’s Gigi Ewing writes.

Cornyn is also using tactics that have failed against Paxton in the past, POLITICO’s Andrew Howard sharply observes. In May, Cornyn’s campaign launched a website attacking Paxton titled CrookedKen.com, highlighting a number of Paxton’s flaws. The site’s content is almost identical to a website rolled out by George P. Bush during his primary race against Paxton in May 2022, called KenTheCrook.com. Bush’s political team had a lot of overlap with Cornyn’s, and Paxton won that primary by more than 30 points.
Cornyn declined an interview with Playbook.

“Every campaign I was ever on, including in 1980, our objective was to get in the local paper when we visited it, and get on the local radio station, and get on TV as much as possible,” Dave Carney, the Abbott strategist, told Playbook. “The difference between that — which is the exact same strategy, get as much attention as you can earn — now is: There’s 600,000 … places to get noticed.”

 

Saturday, August 9, 2025

World War G

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American PoliticsIt includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. The gerrymander war is the big news of 2025.

 Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News:

Republicans are hoping to net a minimum of three House seats in Florida, as we scooped Thursday. Add that to the five seats in Texas, one each in Missouri and Indiana, plus two or three in Ohio, where state law mandates a redraw ahead of 2026.

The Supreme Court also has yet to rule in a high-profile Louisiana redistricting case on the 1965 Voting Rights Act that could further alter next year’s congressional landscape.

The Sunshine State effort, officially announced by Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez on Thursday, is only the most recent Republican initiative to cushion the blow from what’s expected to be a difficult midterms for the GOP. Republicans are hoping to redraw three districts in their favor, likely those of Democratic Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz in Trump-tending South Florida, as well as Darren Soto in the Orlando area.

...

California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom — a 2028 hopeful — is doing everything he can to sidestep his commission, but he’ll need Golden State voters to back his efforts in a special election. This will be extremely expensive and may not work. If it does, the prize could be five new blue seats, which could negate the proposed Texas map.

Where else can Democrats find more seats? Maryland could offer one. But Democrats tried to pass such a map in the 2022 cycle and a court shot it down as an illegal partisan gerrymander.

Oregon is another possibility, although Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek didn’t sound particularly enthusiastic. It’s possible that Democrats could gain a seat out of Illinois, although the Land of Lincoln is already heavily gerrymandered in their favor.

Democrats in other blue states would have to amend their own constitutions in order to get into the redistricting fight. The deadline has passed to do this before the 2026 elections in New Jersey and Colorado. Democrats don’t have the votes in Washington State. New York would require court intervention, and state judges haven’t favored Democrats in redistricting there in recent years.


Thursday, August 7, 2025

Gerrymandering Is a Zero-Sum Game

Lindsey Holden at Politico:
Two of California’s safest House Democrats say they’re preparing to take one for the team — accepting slightly more competitive districts as part of the state’s quest to find five new blue seats.

Gov. Gavin Newsom wants to counter President Donald Trump’s effort to increase the number of GOP seats in Texas with a midcycle gerrymandering of his own. State lawmakers could vote soon after they return from recess on Aug. 18 to hold a November special election asking Californians for the power to redraw congressional districts ahead of the midterms.

But decreasing the number of Republican seats means some deep-blue California districts will take on a slightly more purple tinge.

San Diego Reps. Scott Peters and Sara Jacobs — both of whom represent overwhelmingly Democratic areas — are among the members who would likely see an increase in Republican voters if lines are redrawn. Both told Playbook they would prefer to avoid the sudden redistricting, but that Trump’s Texas push warrants it.

“This is bigger than me and my seat,” Jacobs said. “This is about the survival of democracy and our country. I don't think any of us want to go forward with this, but it's the only way to respond to what they're doing in Texas.”

Peters said he actually agrees with Northern California Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley’s crusade to outlaw redistricting outside the typical 10-year time span. But, he added, “We’re not the ones who picked this fight.”

Jonathan Martin at Politico:

Which gets to the cold reality for GOP lawmakers in California and New York: The very Republicans who helped deliver their party’s congressional majority by winning in the two mega-states in 2020 and 2022 could be collateral damage to Trump’s gambit.

That includes House veterans such as Reps. Darrell Issa and Ken Calvert, both of California, but also younger, promising Republican lawmakers such as [Kevin] Kiley, 40, and Rep. Mike Lawler (N.Y.), 38.

“This creates a situation where you’re going to lose blue state members, which over the long haul are critical to keeping the majority,” Lawler told me.

It’s all, Lawler said, “mutually assured destruction once people go full throttle.”

The redistricting threat is especially cruel to Lawler, who was already eager to avoid yet another tough race in his Hudson Valley district by running for governor next year. But Trump made clear he preferred Rep. Elise Stefanik, a born-again MAGA disciple, as the standard-bearer even though running a Trump acolyte statewide may only ensure Stefanik ends next year where she started this year: hoping for a Trump cabinet appointment.

For Kiley, the Newsom reprisal to Trump may extinguish a congressional career that just began in 2023.

 

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Duel in the Sun: Texas v California

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American PoliticsIt includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Eleanor Klibanoff at Texas Tribune:

The Texas House voted Monday afternoon to track down and arrest more than 50 Democratic lawmakers who were not present when the chamber gaveled in. After the 85-6 vote, House Speaker Dustin Burrows said he would immediately sign civil warrants for each of the legislators, empowering the chamber’s sergeant-at-arms and state troopers to arrest and bring them to the Capitol.

They will not face civil or criminal charges from the arrests. The warrants apply only within state lines, making them largely symbolic as most of the legislators in question decamped to Illinois, New York and Massachusetts to forestall passage of the GOP’s proposed redraw of Texas’ congressional map.

The House used the same tactic to try to force Democrats back to work in 2021, when a majority of them left for Washington, D.C., to protest GOP voting restrictions. Some of the lawmakers challenged the warrants in court, obtaining an injunction against arrests that was later struck down by the Texas Supreme Court.

While the Texas Constitution “enables ‘quorum-breaking’ by a minority faction of the legislature, it likewise authorizes ‘quorum-forcing’ by the remaining members,” the court ruled.

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Democrats left the state Sunday afternoon to deny the House a quorum — the number of people necessary for the chamber to advance legislation — and delay passage of a new congressional map.

The current congressional map, drawn by a Republican-dominated Legislature in 2021, has netted 25 GOP seats in the last two elections. But after pressure from President Donald Trump’s team, Abbott directed lawmakers to redraw the map during the special legislative session, which started July 21. Last week, the House proposed new congressional lines dividing up existing districts in Austin, Houston and Dallas with the aim of netting five more Republican seats.

Michael Wilner, Laura J. Nelson, Seema Mehta and Taryn Luna at LAT:

A last-ditch effort by California Democrats to redraw the state’s congressional map for the 2026 election, countering a similar push by Texas Republicans, is now up against the clock.

Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday that Democrats are moving forward with a plan to put a rare mid-decade redistricting plan before voters on Nov. 4. But state lawmakers will craft a “trigger,” he said, meaning California voters would only vote on the measure if Texas moved forward with its own plans to redraw Congressional boundaries to add five more Republican seats.

“It’s cause and effect, triggered on the basis of what occurs or doesn’t occur in Texas,” Newsom said. “I hope they do the right thing, and if they do, then there’ll be no cause for us to have to move forward.”

 


Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Dueling Gerrymanders

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American PoliticsIt includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

NPR:

Republicans in the Texas House of Representatives have released a proposed new redistricting map that seeks to fulfill President Trump's desire to add up to five additional GOP congressional seats in the state.

New district lines in Texas and elsewhere could play a key role in determining which party controls the U.S. House after next year's midterms.

Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott added redistricting to the agenda for a special legislative session, citing concerns raised by Trump's Department of Justice that certain current districts are unconstitutional. But Republicans have also been explicit that they intend to undertake mid-decade redistricting for partisan aims.
According to Dave Wasserman, an analyst with the Cook Political Report, the proposed new map could help Republicans achieve a gerrymander of 30 Republican districts, to eight for Democrats. Currently, Republicans hold 25 of the state's seats.

 Taryn Luna at LAT:

California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta said Tuesday that he believes there is a “legal pathway” for Democrats to present new congressional district maps directly to voters on a statewide ballot, without input from the state’s independent redistricting commission.

Such a move, he suggested, would allow the state to counter Republican efforts to tilt next year’s midterm election by pushing redistricting measures that favor the GOP in conservative states such as Texas. If successful, Republicans would have a better chance of holding their slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and protecting President Trump’s ability to enact his agenda.

“I think the governor could call a special election that the voters of the state of California would participate in, and present to them a pathway forward that’s different than the independent redistricting commission, that has maps presented to them ready [and] tangible and specific, and then the people vote,” Bonta said, adding that his staff had been discussing the matter with Gov. Gavin Newsom’s team.


Sunday, July 27, 2025

The Parties in Mid-2025

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American PoliticsIt includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Aaron Zitner at WSJ:

The Democratic Party’s image has eroded to its lowest point in more than three decades, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll, with voters seeing Republicans as better at handling most issues that decide elections.

The new survey finds that 63% of voters hold an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party—the highest share in Journal polls dating to 1990 and 30 percentage points higher than the 33% who hold a favorable view.

That is a far weaker assessment than voters give to either President Trump or the Republican Party, who are viewed more unfavorably than favorably by 7 points and 11 points, respectively. A mere 8% of voters view the Democrats “very favorably,” compared with 19% who show that level of enthusiasm for the GOP.

BUT...

Bruce Mehlman:

.It may be “the economy stupid” for Presidential elections, but no economic indicator (consumer confidence, inflation, stock market returns) correlates consistently to midterm outcomes. What does correlate (high R2)? Presidential Approval. Midterms are referendums on the party in power, usually narrowing the mandate given at the last election. And absent >60% approval, the President’s party loses seats. Trump is currently at 44.6% approval. Advantage Democrats.

Monday, July 21, 2025

Preventing House GOP Departures

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American PoliticsIt includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Andrew Howard at Politico:

President Donald Trump is doing everything he can to keep GOP control of the House, and it’s coming at the expense of some of the chamber’s most ambitious members.

It started in March, when Trump abruptly yanked Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.)’s nomination to serve as ambassador to the United Nations. But in recent weeks, the president has also played an important role in stymieing efforts from vulnerable House Republicans who were looking to seek higher office in 2026.

Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) is still considering a Senate bid, but that’s much to the ire of Trump’s top advisers and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who have gone all-in backing former Rep. Mike Rogers for the seat. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) was seriously considering a run for governor, until a meeting with Trump ended in a social media post from the president endorsing his reelection to the House.

"Just spoke to Great Combat Veteran Zach Nunn, and he is committed to the mission of, HOLDING THE MAJORITY,” Trump said on Truth Social earlier this month, before Nunn had announced any decision.

The moves underscore the importance of maintaining Republicans' razor-thin majority for Trump's final years in office, and for the most part, the House Republicans are falling in line.

“After prayerful consideration with his family and the strong support from President Trump, Zach is more committed than ever to maintaining the Republican majority and advancing the America First Agenda,” a spokesperson for Nunn said when he made the decision.

Some, however, have not. Rep. John James (R-Mich.) launched a bid for governor without Trump’s endorsement, and the president made his displeasure clear.

“John James, John James," Trump said at a June bill signing. "I don't know; you know he's running for governor, but I'm not sure I'm happy about that, John. Do we have somebody good to take your seat? Because otherwise we're not letting him run for governor.”

The next potential target on Trump’s chopping block? Battleground New York Rep. Mike Lawler, who has been flirting with a bid for governor.

“I’m going to be meeting with the president at some point soon and have a conversation about the path forward,” Lawler told NewsNation last week. “But one way or the other, we need to have a united front — whether it’s me, whether it’s Elise Stefanik — we need to be focused on defeating Kathy Hochul.”

It’s not just about keeping members in the House. The White House also pushed for Texas’ mid-decade redistricting, which could net as many as five seats for Republicans. There’s action on the Senate side, too. Trump’s team met with Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) last week, as some Republicans brace for her potential retirement.

Sunday, July 20, 2025

NRSC Hardball Against Paxton


Thursday afternoon, the National Republican Senatorial Committee released a statement from communications director Joanna Rodriguez on Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton’s divorce filing against her husband, state Attorney General Ken Paxton. “What Ken Paxton has put his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting,” read the statement. Not your everyday Capitol Hill press release, to say the least.

...

Paxton served 10 years in the Texas state House and two years in the state Senate before his election as attorney general in 2014. In 2015, a year after becoming the state’s chief legal officer, Paxton was indicted on securities-fraud charges. The case languished for nine years, during which he was reelected twice, impeached by the state House, and acquitted by the state Senate. In March of 2024, he reached a plea-bargain agreement that required restitution of almost $300,000 but did not require him to step down from his post.

That brings us back to the NRSC. To be very clear, I am not criticizing Rodriguez, the NRSC staff, or its chairman, Sen. Tim Scott. I understand why they did it, but—wow!

If Cornyn is the GOP nominee, he wins the general election easily—period. But virtually all polling shows Paxton ahead in a primary, be it by 9 points, 19 points, or even 22 points. The most reputable survey, conducted by the Tarrance Group for the Senate Leadership Fund (the chief super PAC for Senate Republicans, closely aligned with Majority Leader Thune), showed Paxton’s margin on the lower end of that range, at 10 points.

Given all of Paxton’s baggage, some of that same polling shows that Democrats would have a good shot against Paxton if he’s the nominee. So it’s easy to understand why national GOP leaders have a vested interest in Cornyn winning renomination, in the process saving them a pile of general-election money.

 

Saturday, July 12, 2025

Epsteingate

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American PoliticsThe second Trump administration is off to an ominous startIts incompetence extends to current officials and nominees.

Glenn Thrush at NYT:

The bitter blame game over the handling of the investigation into the disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein erupted in public on Friday between Attorney General Pam Bondi and the senior leadership of the F.B.I., particularly the bureau’s deputy director, Dan Bongino.

Ms. Bondi and her allies believe that Mr. Bongino, who parlayed a he-man image and promotion of conspiracies into a top law enforcement job, planted stories in the conservative news media blaming Ms. Bondi for the backlash after an announcement earlier this week that the Epstein case would be closed, according to officials close to the situation. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss conversations intended to be private.

It escalated into an angry face-to-face confrontation at the White House on Wednesday, when an irate Ms. Bondi accused Mr. Bongino of leaking information to the news media in the presence of the F.B.I. director, Kash Patel, the White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and one of her deputies, Taylor Budowich. Mr. Bongino denied it, they said.

...

On Friday, a high-profile Bongino booster — the far-right influencer and conspiracist Laura Loomer — claimed, in two dramatic social media posts, that the bureau’s deputy director had taken Friday off to collect his thoughts, and was “now seriously thinking about RESIGNING” over Ms. Bondi’s actions in the Epstein case.

A person close to Mr. Bongino did not dispute her characterization, describing him as very angry and considering a range of options, including quitting.

It would not be the first time Mr. Bongino, who has struggled to retain credibility with the right-wing base while overseeing the bureau’s day-to-day-operations, has suggested the pressures of the job were getting to him: “People ask all the time, ‘Do you like it?’ No. I don’t,” he told Fox News last month.

Ashleigh Fields at The Hill:

Former White House aide Steve Bannon suggested Friday that the GOP could lose dozens of House seats in the 2026 midterms over the Trump administration’s handling of files related to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein.

“You’re going to lose 10 percent of the MAGA movement. If we lose 10 percent of the MAGA movement right now, we ain’t gonna … we’re gonna lose 40 seats in ’26,” he told a live audience during his “War Room” podcast. “We’re gonna lose the president.”

 

Friday, July 11, 2025

Texas GOP: Beware the Dummymander

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American PoliticsIt includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Kayla Guo at Texas Tribune:

As Texas Republicans prepare to redraw the state's congressional districts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, cautionary tales loom from past redistricting efforts that saw the state’s rapid demographic change collide with far-reaching partisan gerrymandering.

The move to carve out more GOP seats in Texas was unveiled Wednesday by Gov. Greg Abbott, who included redistricting in a sweeping 18-item agenda for the Legislature's upcoming special session. The announcement ended weeks of speculation over whether Texas Republicans would follow through on demands from President Donald Trump's political advisers, who have been pushing for the rare mid-decade redistricting gambit to improve the GOP's chances of retaining its slim majority in Congress.

Some Republicans, including members of Texas' congressional delegation, oppose the idea over concerns about jeopardizing their own seats if they miscalculate with the new districts.

A recent test case unfolded after the 2010 U.S. Census, when Republicans who controlled the Texas Legislature looked to maximize their party’s seats across the map by drawing reliable GOP voters into nearby Democratic districts and turning them red.
But by 2018, a Trump midterm election year, that aggressive approach came back to bite them. With a favorable national climate and explosive population growth driven almost entirely by people of color, Texas Democrats picked up 12 seats in the state House, ousted two longtime GOP members of Congress and narrowed their losing margins in statewide races.

“What looked like a solid gerrymander by the end of the decade had become almost a dummymander,” Michael Li, a redistricting expert at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University, said. “The lesson from 2010 is that you can stretch yourself too thin, that you can be too smart for your own good. And when the politics change, you get bitten in the you-know-where.”

Something similar happened in 2006

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Megabill and CA Republican House Members

 Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American PoliticsIt includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Dan Walters at CalMatters:

“Congressman David Valadao is doing exactly what he promised: delivering real results, restoring fiscal sanity, and fighting for California families,” NRCC spokesman Christian Martinez said. “His vote is proof that strong leadership and commonsense still matter in Washington.”

A couple of hours later, Protect Our Care California, a health care advocacy organization with close ties to Democratic Party leaders, announced that it will air video ads criticizing Valadao and nine other Republican congressional members for their votes.

“Representative David Valadao just voted for the largest health care cuts in history in order to fund tax breaks for billionaires and big corporations, and we’re going to make sure that every single one of their constituents knows it,” said Matthew Herdman, director of Protect Our Care California.

The ads are aimed at Valadao and other members of California’s Republican congressional delegation, including Young Kim and Ken Calvert, because they are considered to be the most vulnerable incumbents as the two major parties battle over control over the House in next year’s elections.

...

Valadao’s vote for the bill is especially noteworthy because Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by 12 percentage points in the San Joaquin Valley’s 22nd Congressional District, two-thirds of his constituents rely on Medi-Cal (California’s version of Medicaid) for their health care, and he had repeatedly promised not to vote for any reductions in the program.


Saturday, July 5, 2025

The Megabill Aftermath

 Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American PoliticsIt includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.


Maeve Reston and Theodoric Meyer at WP:

History and dismal public polling suggest President Donald Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax bill, approved by Congress this week, could help Democrats win back the House in the 2026 midterm elections.

The bill is deeply unpopular — with nearly 2-to-1 opposition, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted in June. But Republicans still have an opportunity to shape public perception of the bill because more than a third of Americans had no opinion of it and two-thirds said they had heard either little or nothing about it.

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While Trump made substantial inroads with low-income voters in the 2024 election, the top 10 percent of earners get about 80 percent of the bill’s benefits, according to the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton budget model. The bill also makes deep cuts to federal support for wind and solar power and other renewable technologies — leading some experts to warn that the legislation could raise energy prices for consumers at a time when demand is soaring
....
Trump has pledged not to cut Medicaid and has falsely claimed that the bill simply targets waste, fraud and abuse in the program. But at least 17 million Americans will lose their health care coverage, according to nonpartisan estimates — the result of the bill’s cuts to Medicaid, the expiration of subsidies for health insurance on the Affordable Care Act marketplaces, and other Republican changes. That could pose a major liability for vulnerable Republicans such as Rep. David G. Valadao, who represents a district in California’s Central Valley with one of the highest numbers of Medicaid recipients in the country, according to an analysis by KFF.

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The bill includes a $6,000 deduction for seniors — which stemmed from Trump’s campaign pledge — but the provision will not benefit tens of millions of low-income seniors, who do not have a sufficient tax liability to claim the deduction. Our colleague Jeff Stein has the details on who will benefit here

...

Working-class voters in the swing state of Nevada — many of whom work in the hospitality industry — frequently cited Trump’s promises to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime as a reason they were leaning toward voting for Trump. Partially fulfilling those promises could help Republicans running in three Democratic-held House seats in Nevada that are perennial battlegrounds. (Both provisions will be phased out at the end of 2028.).