Robo-Gerrymander

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Bruce Mehlman:

Researchers were using high-performance computing and big data to discover new materials and analyze proteins before AI… but AI massively accelerated & improved such data-intensive efforts. Gerrymandering dates to 1812 in the U.S. Party strategists have been leveraging voter data and computing to draw advantageous maps for decades. AI promises gerrymandering on steroids — weapons of mass division in the 2025 redistricting wars — with powerful AI models able to (1) precisely-sift unprecedented amounts and unprecedentedly-personal data, (2) compare unlimited potential maps to optimize outcomes. But while AI-enabled cramming could reduce the paltry 20% of seats that are currently competitive, AI-drawn maps might also create more competitive seats by shifting voters out of safer seats (where risk-averse incumbent politicians often prefer them).

World War G

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. The gerrymander war is the big news of 2025.

 Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News:

Republicans are hoping to net a minimum of three House seats in Florida, as we scooped Thursday. Add that to the five seats in Texas, one each in Missouri and Indiana, plus two or three in Ohio, where state law mandates a redraw ahead of 2026.

The Supreme Court also has yet to rule in a high-profile Louisiana redistricting case on the 1965 Voting Rights Act that could further alter next year’s congressional landscape.

The Sunshine State effort, officially announced by Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez on Thursday, is only the most recent Republican initiative to cushion the blow from what’s expected to be a difficult midterms for the GOP. Republicans are hoping to redraw three districts in their favor, likely those of Democratic Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz in Trump-tending South Florida, as well as Darren Soto in the Orlando area.

...

California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom — a 2028 hopeful — is doing everything he can to sidestep his commission, but he’ll need Golden State voters to back his efforts in a special election. This will be extremely expensive and may not work. If it does, the prize could be five new blue seats, which could negate the proposed Texas map.

Where else can Democrats find more seats? Maryland could offer one. But Democrats tried to pass such a map in the 2022 cycle and a court shot it down as an illegal partisan gerrymander.

Oregon is another possibility, although Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek didn’t sound particularly enthusiastic. It’s possible that Democrats could gain a seat out of Illinois, although the Land of Lincoln is already heavily gerrymandered in their favor.

Democrats in other blue states would have to amend their own constitutions in order to get into the redistricting fight. The deadline has passed to do this before the 2026 elections in New Jersey and Colorado. Democrats don’t have the votes in Washington State. New York would require court intervention, and state judges haven’t favored Democrats in redistricting there in recent years.

Gerrymandering Is a Zero-Sum Game

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Lindsey Holden at Politico:

Two of California’s safest House Democrats say they’re preparing to take one for the team — accepting slightly more competitive districts as part of the state’s quest to find five new blue seats.

Gov. Gavin Newsom wants to counter President Donald Trump’s effort to increase the number of GOP seats in Texas with a midcycle gerrymandering of his own. State lawmakers could vote soon after they return from recess on Aug. 18 to hold a November special election asking Californians for the power to redraw congressional districts ahead of the midterms.

But decreasing the number of Republican seats means some deep-blue California districts will take on a slightly more purple tinge.

San Diego Reps. Scott Peters and Sara Jacobs — both of whom represent overwhelmingly Democratic areas — are among the members who would likely see an increase in Republican voters if lines are redrawn. Both told Playbook they would prefer to avoid the sudden redistricting, but that Trump’s Texas push warrants it.

“This is bigger than me and my seat,” Jacobs said. “This is about the survival of democracy and our country. I don't think any of us want to go forward with this, but it's the only way to respond to what they're doing in Texas.”

Peters said he actually agrees with Northern California Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley’s crusade to outlaw redistricting outside the typical 10-year time span. But, he added, “We’re not the ones who picked this fight.”

Jonathan Martin at Politico:

Which gets to the cold reality for GOP lawmakers in California and New York: The very Republicans who helped deliver their party’s congressional majority by winning in the two mega-states in 2020 and 2022 could be collateral damage to Trump’s gambit.

That includes House veterans such as Reps. Darrell Issa and Ken Calvert, both of California, but also younger, promising Republican lawmakers such as [Kevin] Kiley, 40, and Rep. Mike Lawler (N.Y.), 38.

“This creates a situation where you’re going to lose blue state members, which over the long haul are critical to keeping the majority,” Lawler told me.

It’s all, Lawler said, “mutually assured destruction once people go full throttle.”

The redistricting threat is especially cruel to Lawler, who was already eager to avoid yet another tough race in his Hudson Valley district by running for governor next year. But Trump made clear he preferred Rep. Elise Stefanik, a born-again MAGA disciple, as the standard-bearer even though running a Trump acolyte statewide may only ensure Stefanik ends next year where she started this year: hoping for a Trump cabinet appointment.

For Kiley, the Newsom reprisal to Trump may extinguish a congressional career that just began in 2023.

 

Dueling Gerrymanders

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

NPR:

Republicans in the Texas House of Representatives have released a proposed new redistricting map that seeks to fulfill President Trump's desire to add up to five additional GOP congressional seats in the state.

New district lines in Texas and elsewhere could play a key role in determining which party controls the U.S. House after next year's midterms.

Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott added redistricting to the agenda for a special legislative session, citing concerns raised by Trump's Department of Justice that certain current districts are unconstitutional. But Republicans have also been explicit that they intend to undertake mid-decade redistricting for partisan aims.

According to Dave Wasserman, an analyst with the Cook Political Report, the proposed new map could help Republicans achieve a gerrymander of 30 Republican districts, to eight for Democrats. Currently, Republicans hold 25 of the state's seats.

 Taryn Luna at LAT:

California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta said Tuesday that he believes there is a “legal pathway” for Democrats to present new congressional district maps directly to voters on a statewide ballot, without input from the state’s independent redistricting commission.

Such a move, he suggested, would allow the state to counter Republican efforts to tilt next year’s midterm election by pushing redistricting measures that favor the GOP in conservative states such as Texas. If successful, Republicans would have a better chance of holding their slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and protecting President Trump’s ability to enact his agenda.

“I think the governor could call a special election that the voters of the state of California would participate in, and present to them a pathway forward that’s different than the independent redistricting commission, that has maps presented to them ready [and] tangible and specific, and then the people vote,” Bonta said, adding that his staff had been discussing the matter with Gov. Gavin Newsom’s team.

Some Green Shoots for Democrats

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start. Democrats have problems, but still take hope.

Mike Allen at Axios:

Here's the five-part theory of the case for why Dems are optimistic about 2026, as laid out by more than a dozen of their top campaign staffers:

1. The "big, beautiful bill" is polling terribly.
2. Cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act are expected to make the "big, beautiful bill" even more unpopular.
3. Prices are still high despite Trump promising to bring them down. Economic approval had long been one of Trump's consistent political strengths. Now it's not.
4. Trump's deportations are getting blowback after going well beyond violent criminals and gang members. Polls show Republicans losing an advantage on one of their key issues in the 2024 election.
5. Democratic enthusiasm. A recent CNN poll found 72% Democrats and Democratic-aligned voters are extremely motivated to vote in the midterm elections, compared to just 50% of Republicans and Republican-aligned voters.

Washington Post:

How closely are Americans following news about government files from the federal investigation of Jeffrey Epstein, and what do they think about President Donald Trump’s handling of the issue? The Washington Post texted 1,089 people Monday to ask.

The Post’s poll found that most Americans are paying at least some attention to news about the Epstein files. Americans largely disapprove of how Trump is handling the issue, with most Democrats and independents disapproving and Republicans expressing a mix of approval and uncertainty. Most Americans strongly support releasing all files in the Epstein case and suspect the documents contain embarrassing information about Trump, Democrats and billionaires.

The Parties in Mid-2025

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Aaron Zitner at WSJ:

The Democratic Party’s image has eroded to its lowest point in more than three decades, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll, with voters seeing Republicans as better at handling most issues that decide elections.

The new survey finds that 63% of voters hold an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party—the highest share in Journal polls dating to 1990 and 30 percentage points higher than the 33% who hold a favorable view.

That is a far weaker assessment than voters give to either President Trump or the Republican Party, who are viewed more unfavorably than favorably by 7 points and 11 points, respectively. A mere 8% of voters view the Democrats “very favorably,” compared with 19% who show that level of enthusiasm for the GOP.

BUT...

Bruce Mehlman:

.It may be “the economy stupid” for Presidential elections, but no economic indicator (consumer confidence, inflation, stock market returns) correlates consistently to midterm outcomes. What does correlate (high R2)? Presidential Approval. Midterms are referendums on the party in power, usually narrowing the mandate given at the last election. And absent >60% approval, the President’s party loses seats. Trump is currently at 44.6% approval. Advantage Democrats.

Preventing House GOP Departures

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Andrew Howard at Politico:

President Donald Trump is doing everything he can to keep GOP control of the House, and it’s coming at the expense of some of the chamber’s most ambitious members.

It started in March, when Trump abruptly yanked Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.)’s nomination to serve as ambassador to the United Nations. But in recent weeks, the president has also played an important role in stymieing efforts from vulnerable House Republicans who were looking to seek higher office in 2026.

Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) is still considering a Senate bid, but that’s much to the ire of Trump’s top advisers and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who have gone all-in backing former Rep. Mike Rogers for the seat. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) was seriously considering a run for governor, until a meeting with Trump ended in a social media post from the president endorsing his reelection to the House.

"Just spoke to Great Combat Veteran Zach Nunn, and he is committed to the mission of, HOLDING THE MAJORITY,” Trump said on Truth Social earlier this month, before Nunn had announced any decision.

The moves underscore the importance of maintaining Republicans' razor-thin majority for Trump's final years in office, and for the most part, the House Republicans are falling in line.

“After prayerful consideration with his family and the strong support from President Trump, Zach is more committed than ever to maintaining the Republican majority and advancing the America First Agenda,” a spokesperson for Nunn said when he made the decision.

Some, however, have not. Rep. John James (R-Mich.) launched a bid for governor without Trump’s endorsement, and the president made his displeasure clear.

“John James, John James," Trump said at a June bill signing. "I don't know; you know he's running for governor, but I'm not sure I'm happy about that, John. Do we have somebody good to take your seat? Because otherwise we're not letting him run for governor.”

The next potential target on Trump’s chopping block? Battleground New York Rep. Mike Lawler, who has been flirting with a bid for governor.

“I’m going to be meeting with the president at some point soon and have a conversation about the path forward,” Lawler told NewsNation last week. “But one way or the other, we need to have a united front — whether it’s me, whether it’s Elise Stefanik — we need to be focused on defeating Kathy Hochul.”

It’s not just about keeping members in the House. The White House also pushed for Texas’ mid-decade redistricting, which could net as many as five seats for Republicans. There’s action on the Senate side, too. Trump’s team met with Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) last week, as some Republicans brace for her potential retirement.

The Megabill Aftermath

 Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Maeve Reston and Theodoric Meyer at WP:

History and dismal public polling suggest President Donald Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax bill, approved by Congress this week, could help Democrats win back the House in the 2026 midterm elections.

The bill is deeply unpopular — with nearly 2-to-1 opposition, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted in June. But Republicans still have an opportunity to shape public perception of the bill because more than a third of Americans had no opinion of it and two-thirds said they had heard either little or nothing about it.

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While Trump made substantial inroads with low-income voters in the 2024 election, the top 10 percent of earners get about 80 percent of the bill’s benefits, according to the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton budget model. The bill also makes deep cuts to federal support for wind and solar power and other renewable technologies — leading some experts to warn that the legislation could raise energy prices for consumers at a time when demand is soaring

....

Trump has pledged not to cut Medicaid and has falsely claimed that the bill simply targets waste, fraud and abuse in the program. But at least 17 million Americans will lose their health care coverage, according to nonpartisan estimates — the result of the bill’s cuts to Medicaid, the expiration of subsidies for health insurance on the Affordable Care Act marketplaces, and other Republican changes. That could pose a major liability for vulnerable Republicans such as Rep. David G. Valadao, who represents a district in California’s Central Valley with one of the highest numbers of Medicaid recipients in the country, according to an analysis by KFF.

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The bill includes a $6,000 deduction for seniors — which stemmed from Trump’s campaign pledge — but the provision will not benefit tens of millions of low-income seniors, who do not have a sufficient tax liability to claim the deduction. Our colleague Jeff Stein has the details on who will benefit here

...

Working-class voters in the swing state of Nevada — many of whom work in the hospitality industry — frequently cited Trump’s promises to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime as a reason they were leaning toward voting for Trump. Partially fulfilling those promises could help Republicans running in three Democratic-held House seats in Nevada that are perennial battlegrounds. (Both provisions will be phased out at the end of 2028.).

 

Don't overlook this. By backloading Medicaid cuts until 2027/2028, Trump and GOP have ensured that the bloodbath will start when JD Vance's 2028 campaign really gets going. "Working class populist" Vance will have to defend that carnage in real time.https://t.co/1gjAxXtLaA pic.twitter.com/HhB1ojuLuu

— Greg Sargent (@GregTSargent) July 5, 2025

Tillis

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Annie Karni at NYT:

Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, announced on Sunday that he would not seek re-election next year, a day after President Trump threatened to back a primary challenger against him because Mr. Tillis had said he opposed the bill carrying Mr. Trump’s domestic agenda.

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In January, Mr. Trump made it clear that he was contemplating finding a primary challenger to Mr. Tillis after the senator expressed grave reservations about his nominee for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth. Mr. Tillis eventually fell in line and backed the president’s pick, surrendering to Mr. Trump’s demands for loyalty.

Mr. Tillis in his statement blamed the lack of any middle ground in Congress on both parties, pointing to the recent departures of Senators Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, both conservative-leaning Democrats before Ms. Sinema switched her affiliation to Independent, without naming them.

“When people see independent thinking on the other side, they cheer,” he said. “But when those very same people see independent thinking coming from their side, they scorn, ostracize and even censure them.”

 

Earlier today...

Donna King at Carolina Journal:

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis is under fire from President Donald Trump, who announced via social media this weekend that he may support a primary challenger to Tillis in the 2026 Senate race. The move comes after Tillis opposed advancing Trump’s high-profile legislative proposal—the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—in a narrowly divided US Senate vote.

In posts on Truth Social, Trump blasted Tillis for what he called a “BIG MISTAKE,” saying, “Numerous people have come forward wanting to run in the Primary against ‘Senator Thom’ Tillis. I will be meeting with them over the coming weeks looking for someone to properly represent the Great People of North Carolina.” In several posts, Trump accused Tillis of grandstanding and being “missing in action.”


...


A Victory Insights poll conducted last summer shows Tillis trailing far behind Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law and a Wilmington native, in a hypothetical GOP primary. Lara Trump leads with 65% support among likely Republican voters, compared to just 11% for Tillis.

On the Democrat side, former Congressman Wiley Nickel has already thrown his hat in the ring for Tillis’ seat, but most eyes are on former Gov. Roy Cooper to potentially challenge Tillis. A Democrat with statewide name recognition and deep fundraising capabilities, polling indicates Cooper could have a slight advantage over Republican contenders in a general election matchup.

In the Victory poll, a matchup between Cooper and Tillis shows the former governor leading the senator, 45.1%-44.1%. If Cooper were to face Lara Trump, his edge is slightly larger, 45.5%-44.3%. Annie Karni at NYT:

 

Yogurt, Not Wine

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.  It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Adam Wren at Politico Playbook:

Democrats are licking their chops about the prospect of running against the GOP megabill in next year’s midterms.

Polling on the megabill has already sent a chill down the spine of many in-cycle Republicans. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who faces a fraught reelection bid next year, has told his Republican colleagues the megabill’s cuts to Medicaid could be the party’s Obamacare — meaning it could yield major defeats for Republicans, much as backlash to the Affordable Care Act hurt Democrats in the 2010 cycle.

“It’s a slam dunk messaging opportunity for Democrats,” Democratic strategist Mike Nellis told Playbook last night. “It’s very easy to explain how it’s going to have a direct and immediate impact on people’s lives. They’re going to cut Medicaid and other critical government programs that people rely on to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy.”

On message: Future possible Democratic presidential candidates from Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are railing against it, homing in on the Medicaid cuts in particular. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear told Playbook that the megabill risks closing 35 rural hospitals in his home state, “forcing people to drive hours just to see their primary care doctor and is estimated to eliminate the jobs of 20,000 health care workers” in Kentucky.

Expect to hear more like this: “It will force children to go hungry in a country that grows enough food to feed all Americans,” Beshear said. “And it doesn’t even work; it adds trillions to our national debt while blowing a hole in the budgets of all 50 states. It’s wrong, cruel and callous.”

“The ads, the tweets, the press releases write themselves,” Nellis told Playbook. “Easy for everybody to get behind opposing it, regardless of the district dynamics.”

Burgess Everett at Semafor:

If Senate Republicans can close up all their outstanding issues on Trump’s megabill, expect them to vote basically immediately.

“This bill is like yogurt, not wine,” one senator told Semafor.

Trump v. Musk, Friday ed.

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.

Jonathan Karl at ABC:

In a phone interview Friday morning, hours after his blistering exchange with Elon Musk, President Donald Trump sounded remarkably unconcerned about their feud, as if it weren't even the most interesting thing that happened Thursday.

Speaking on a phone call Friday morning shortly before 7 a.m., ABC News asked him about reports he had a call scheduled with Musk for later in the day..

"You mean the man who has lost his mind?" he asked, saying he was "not particularly" interested in talking to him right now.

e said Musk wants to talk to him, but he's not ready to talk to Musk.

Andrew Howard and Adam Wren at Politico:

“Trump has 3.5 years left as President, but I will be around for 40+ years,” Musk said on X.

The post was an unambiguous warning from the world’s richest man, who has the power to single-handedly reshape elections with his wealth. It was not long ago that Republicans hoped Musk could pour cash into their efforts to help maintain control of Washington. Instead, he’s becoming their public adversary.

Musk spent Thursday online attacking President Donald Trump over Republicans’ massive tax-and-spending bill, which Musk says does not cut enough government spending.

He’d already threatened to challenge Republicans who support the megabill; on Thursday, he blasted House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, took credit for Republicans winning trifecta control in November, and floated the idea of launching a third party.

“This is a massive crack in the MAGA coalition,” said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and a former Trump administration appointee. “This town is historically built on Republican versus Democrat, and this seems to be crazy versus crazy. It is asymmetric and it seems, for the first time, President Trump seems to be out-crazied.”

Trump 2026

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.  It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

A Democratic takeover of the House in 2026 would mean investigations and possibly even impeachment. Mike Allen at Axios reports that Trump is taking five steps to protect the thin GOP majority.

1. Trying to prevent retirements. The White House is targeting several Republicans in politically divided swing districts and urging them not to ditch their seats or run for higher office.Incumbent lawmakers with established fundraising and campaigning networks are almost always better positioned to win than any challengers. It has sent a clear message to New York Rep. Mike Lawler that Trump wants him to stay in the House rather than run for governor.

2. Spending big. Trump has built a $500 million-plus political apparatus, and he's already unloading some of it with 2026 in mind.Securing American Greatness, a pro-Trump group that works with the White House, has launched a multimillion-dollar ad campaign touting his economic agenda in the districts of eight vulnerable House Republicans. Trump also has a leadership PAC, Never Surrender, planning to give directly to Republican candidates.

 3. Taking primary challengers off the table. Besides Lawler, Trump has endorsed a slate of swing-district GOP incumbents in a series of moves aimed at shutting down would-be primary challengers before they get off the ground, people close to the president tell Axios....

 4. Raising gobs more money. Trump is the GOP's most powerful fundraiser, and he's begun helping the party fill its coffers.He headlined an April dinner benefiting the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) that raked in more than $35 million.

 5. Ramping up recruiting. Trump's political operation and the NRCC are seeking out candidates in swing-district contests with no incumbents.Their goal is to get the party to coalesce around a Trump-and-GOP-backed candidate to avoid a bloody primary, a Trump ally said.

Midterm Risks for GOP

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Unless Trump backs down on tariffs, his party will have political hell to pay.

Nate Cohn at NYT:

There might not have been anyone marching in pink hats, and congressional Democrats might have been “playing dead,” but the Democratic special election strength looks just as large as it did in 2017 and 2018, before the so-called blue wave flipped control of the House.

Perhaps this shouldn’t necessarily be a surprise: It’s what happened the last time Mr. Trump won. But it’s not what triumphant Republicans or despondent Democrats had in mind in the wake of Mr. Trump’s victory, when there was seemingly no “resistance” to Mr. Trump and the “vibes” seemed to augur a broad rightward cultural shift.

The tariffs announced Wednesday, however, introduce a political problem of an entirely different magnitude for Mr. Trump and his party. No party or politician is recession proof. Historically, even truly dominant political parties have suffered enormous political defeats during major economic downturns.

In none of those cases — not even with the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariff — could the president be held responsible for the downturn as self-evidently as today. And whatever it may have felt like after the election, the Republican Party is not even close to politically dominant.

If anything, Mr. Trump and the Republicans today could be especially vulnerable, as so much of his political strength is built on the economy. Throughout his time as a politician, he usually earned his best ratings on his handling of economic issues. He’s benefited from his reputation as a successful businessman and from effective economic stewardship in his first term. He won the last election, despite enormous personal liabilities, in no small part because voters were frustrated by high prices and economic upheaval that followed the end of the pandemic.

In New York Times/Siena College national surveys last fall, more than 40 percent of voters who backed Mr. Trump in 2024 but not 2020 said that the economy or inflation was the most important issue to their vote.

Wisconsin and Florida: Bad Signs for GOP

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Alex Isenstadt at  Axios:

The GOP also survived a late scare in a Florida special election. But losing in Wisconsin — letting Democrats keep their 4-3 court majority — has major ramifications for voting and abortion rights, along with future House redistricting.Republicans kept the House seat in Florida formerly held by national security adviser Mike Waltz, with Randy Fine holding off Democrat Josh Weil.

Republicans also held the Florida seat formerly held by Rep. Matt Gaetz before he resigned from Congress in November. Jimmy Patronis defeated Democratic candidate Gay Valimont.

1. 2026 looks scary for MAGA without Trump on the ballot.Republican House candidates in Florida fell far short of Trump's performance in November. The margins of victory for Patronis and Fine were about half of the margins for Waltz and Gaetz.

...

Republicans lost in Wisconsin, even with $25 million poured in by Elon Musk, the wealthiest person in the world and the face of DOGE. Musk campaigned in Wisconsin and cast the race in apocalyptic terms.

2. Democrats are flooding cash into races

In FL-1, Patronis was outraised 3-1.
In FL-6, Fine was outraised by nearly 10-1.
In Wisconsin, Crawford outraised Schimel nearly 2-1.

3. Republicans dodged a bullet in Florida. Last week Republicans were sweating the race for Waltz's seat, where a poll conducted by Trump strategist Tony Fabrizio showed Fine narrowly trailing. But Fine won by 15 points.  Florida defeat would have raised alarms among Republicans about the political impact of Trump's agenda. Speaker Mike Johnson's narrow House majority won't shrink, and there won't be headlines about a special election shocker.