Omens from Brooklyn

Peggy Noonan explains Bob Turner's victory in the special election to succeed Anthony Weiner:

As this is written, with 92% of precincts counted, Republican Bob Turner leads Democrat David Weprin 53% to 47%. That doesn't look big but is. In 2008, Mr. Weiner won the district with 93%. In 2010, a bad year for Democrats, he beat Mr. Turner with 61%. In 2008 Barack Obama carried the district 55% to 44%. This week a Sienna College poll said voters there now had an unfavorable opinion of the president by 54% to 43%. It's a perfect reversal.

Orthodox Jews and Israel, gay marriage, the economy—all these things played a part, but at the end of the day it was about Mr. Obama. It is always about his leadership now. And that is a great quandary for Democrats, because they are not going to get rid of him, they are not going to primary him, because they don't want to break their party open.

Lloyd Green, a close follower of New York politics and former staffer in the George H.W. Bush campaign of 1988, looked at the voting patterns. The predominantly Catholic 23rd Assembly District went for Mr. Turner by 2,000 votes out of roughly 10,000 cast. In predominantly Jewish and Russian Flatbush, Mr. Turner got more than twice the votes Mr. Weprin did. "The white middle class is heading for the exits," said Mr. Green. The Republican won with a coalition of Catholics, ethnics and Jews. "This was not only Rudy Giuliani's base, it was Bill Clinton's New York base as well."

Michael Barone in the Washington Examiner: "For nearly two decades it has been taken for granted that white residents [of] metro New York are heavily Democratic." Not in this election: "They just issued what amounts to an emphatic thumbs down on the policies of the Obama Democrats."

At the New York Times, Mark Landler quotes the DNC chair as downplaying the result:

Like other Democrats, Ms. Wasserman Schultz played down the broader implications of the upset in New York, arguing that the district’s Orthodox and Russian-Jewish population makes it more conservative than other Jewish areas. She pointed to polls showing that a majority of Jews still support Mr. Obama and that their level of approval for his performance largely tracks that of the broader electorate.

Still, American Jews are clearly less enchanted with Mr. Obama than they were in 2008, when nearly 8 out of 10 voted for him (in a Gallup poll last July, the most recent month for which data was available, his approval rating was 60 percent). Jewish lawmakers have been warning the White House that this disaffection could hurt the president in turnout, fund-raising and enthusiasm.

“For a while now, I’ve been hearing from my constituents a lot of dissatisfaction with the statements on Israel that have been coming from the president and the administration,” said Representative Eliot L. Engel, Democrat of New York. “He’ll still get a majority of Jewish votes, but I would not be surprised to see that drop 10 to 20 points.”

Cameron Joseph writes at The Hill:

Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), a prominent Jewish congressman, said the Jewish vote is a concern for his party.

“I think Jewish voters will be Democratic and be for Obama in 2012, especially if you get a Republican candidate like [Texas] Gov. [Rick] Perry,” he said. “But there’s no question the Jewish community is much more bipartisan than it has been in previous years. There are Jews who are trending toward the Republican Party, some of it because of their misunderstanding of Obama’s policies in the Middle East, and some of it, quite frankly, for economic reasons. They feel they want to protect their wealth, which is why a lot of well-off voters vote for Republicans.”

Cam also writes:

Polling leading up to the race indicated Obama was dragging down the Democratic candidate. Democratic pollster Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling said that a Turner win would be “largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district” after PPP’s polling found Obama with just 31 percent approval in a district he won with 55 percent of the vote in 2008.

A Democratic strategist said Obama has become such a problem for down-ticket Democrats that he was wary of encouraging candidates to run next year. “I’m warning my clients — ‘Don’t run in 2012.’ I don’t want to see good candidates lose by 12 to 15 points because of the president,” said the strategist.

Bachmann Jumps Shark, Gets Bitten

At Politico, James Hohmann nicely sums up reactions to Bachmann's vaccine comments:

CONSERVATIVES TURN ON BACHMANN-The left already loathes Bachmann, so you can discount their outrage [evident in today's Gail Collins column: http://nyti.ms/qTY7xd]. The reason this gaffe has legs is that it seems to be the last straw for heretofore friendly conservative bloggers. Three examples:

Jonathan Adler at The Volokh Conspiracy: "Even if Gov. Perry was wrong to order the vaccinations, there's absolutely no basis for suggesting the vaccine is a threat to children." http://bit.ly/op4qkl

Steven Hayward on Power Line: "Up to now I've thought Michele Bachman was the most impressive performer in the GOP field, going toe-to-toe with the 'big boys' in the field... But her embrace of the wacko idea that the vaccine is dangerous or causes autism, mental retardation, or other risks is simply irresponsible... it has shifted the focus from Perry's use of power to Bachmann's scientific credibility-a lose-lose for everyone." http://bit.ly/roTyBg

Steve Haff at RedState: "In the past, I have written favorably about Michele Bachmann... but now I've heard enough. There were several ways she could have attacked Rick Perry on the Gardasil Issue without resorting to snake oil worthy of a John Edwards pick-up line." http://bit.ly/oQxqTS

As of Thursday night, she was slightly changing her approach, as The San Francisco Chronicle reports:

On the HPV vaccine, Bachmann responded to questions about whether she regretted repeating a supporter's unsubstantiated claim that her daughter suffered mental retardation after being administered the drug. Leading pediatric, bioethical and medical groups have strongly refuted the notion, and Bachmann's campaign has since been forced to address criticism that the candidate was guilty of overreaching.

On Thursday, Bachmann maintained she was making no claims regarding the drug this week, and that she was merely trying to underscore "an abuse of power" by Texas Gov. Rick Perry in mandating the vaccine for girls in his state.

"I didn't make any statements that would indicate I'm a doctor, I'm a scientist, or making any conclusions about the drug one way or the other," she said, adding she was merely relating the concerns of a woman who was "very distraught" and who supported her view that Perry's actions were wrong.

Asked specifically if she would apologize for the HPV comments, Bachmann said, "I'm not going to answer that question."

Perry and Vaccines

(Cross-posted from Autism Policy & Politics)

Speaking with the Miami Herald, Rick Perry commented on autism and vaccines:

We caught up with Texas Gov. Rick Perry this morning in Tampa and asked a few questions about immigration, the controversy over the HPV vaccine and the crowd members who cheered at the idea of letting someone die in a coma. He also gave a shout-out to his buddy, Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

Perry's comments on the HPV vaccine came after Michele Bachmann this morning told a radio show that a woman came up to her after the debate and said her child was made retarded by the Gardasil shot. Perry dismissed that as a side-effect of the vaccine.

"You heard the same arguments about giving our children protections from childhood diseases and that autism was part of it. Now we’ve subsequently found out that that was all generated and not true," he said. "I would suggest to you that this issue about Gardasil and making it available was about saving people’s lives. I sat on the side of a bed of a young lady in Texas who died from cervical cancer. It had a powerful impact on me. We gave parents the right to opt out. The Legislature disagreed with the way we did it. I work for the people, not the other way around…. At the end of the day, saving people’s lives and making vaccines available that can save lives is the important thing…"

AttackWatch #Fail

At The Washington Post, Elizabeth Flock writes on an Internet tactic:

As the 2012 presidential campaign heats up, President Obama’s campaign team has set up a new Web site, AttackWatch.com, to challenge negative statements about the president made by Republican presidential candidates and conservatives.

Obama for America national field director Jeremy Bird told ABC News that the site’s goal is to offer “resources to fight back” against attacks. Mostly, that means fact checking statements from the likes of GOP presidential contenders Mitt Romney and Rick Perry and conservative commentator Glenn Beck and offering evidence to the contrary. The site is designed in bold red and black colors, and uses statements like “support the truth” and “fight the smears.”

The response to the site has been less than stellar.

(Image via Twitter) On Twitter, where the Web site has an account to help Obama supporters submit evidence of “attacks” on the president using the hashtag #attackwatch, nearly every tweet about the site — mostly from conservatives — has ridiculed it.

...

It’s safe to say that in its 24 hours of existence, Attack Watch has already backfired, becoming a tool for conservatives to use against Obama 2012. A tweet by conservative author Brad Thor summed up the critics’s argument: “Wow, not only are Obama & Co. incredibly thin-skinned, they're paranoid.”

Perry, Bachmann, and Vaccines

In The New York Post, Robert Goldberg of the Center for Medicine in the Public Interest writes:

In Monday night’s debate, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum all seemed to be auditioning for the role that Jude Law plays in the film “Contagion” -- Alan Krumwiede, a blogger who tells millions that a vaccine to combat a lethal pathogen is actually dangerous, and claims both the epidemic and vaccine were created by government to enrich drug companies.

Krumwiede’s conspiracy theory proves deadly -- and so will these Republicans’, if anyone listens.

All three candidates slammed Texas Gov. Rick Perry for requiring immunization of 12-year-old girls against the human papilloma virus, a leading cause of cervical cancer. The attack truly became a blogworthy screed as we heard about how Perry and Merck (the developer of Gardasil, one of the two HPV vaccines) profited from the mandate at the expense of children’s health.

Bachman called Perry’s move “just wrong,” and spoke of “little girls who have a negative reaction to this potentially dangerous drug.” The next day, she went further, telling Fox News’ Greta van Susteren: “There’s a woman who came up crying to me tonight after the debate. She said her daughter was given that vaccine. She told me her daughter suffered mental retardation as a result of that vaccine... This is the very real concern and people have to draw their own conclusions.”

Don’t be distracted by legitimate, but minor, questions about how states should make public-health decisions: The thrust of this attack is garbage -- and deadly garbage at that. The anti-vaccine psuedo-science behind the charge has been thoroughly discredited.

At Power Line, Steve Hayward says that Bachmann makes some legitimate criticisms of Perry on the vaccine issue.

But her embrace of the wacko idea that the vaccine is dangerous or causes autism, mental retardation, or other risks is simply irresponsible. Is Bachman, Glenn Reynolds quipped, trying to go after the Jenny McCarthy vote? (Glenn also links to Jonathan Adler’s quick take on this, which is the same as mine.)

Bachman passed along with complete credulity the claim of someone who she says came up to her after the debate attributing her child’s mental issues to the vaccine. I’ve heard a few people speculate darkly about whether such a person actually exists, or whether Bachman made it up or is trimming a bit from something she was told another time. You’d think our inquisitive news media would find this person and investigate, or that the person would now step forward (or that other people with similar claims would now step forward). Above all, this is a political mistake as well as a scientific one, as it has shifted the focus from Perry’s use of power to Bachmann’s scientific credibility—a lose-lose for everyone.

GOP Takes Weiner's Seat

The president started his day with very bad news on poverty. He ended it by learning that New York City voters had just sent him an unwelcome message. Andy Kroll writes for Mother Jones:

Democrats took a beating on Tuesday night in a pair of special elections in Nevada and New York. A Democratic loss was expected in Nevada's GOP-friendly 2nd congressional district in the race to replace Rep. Dean Heller, who was appointed by Gov. Brian Sandoval to take over the seat of disgraced US senator John Ensign after his resignation. But in the fight to fill the seat left by Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY), Republican Bob Turner's victory dealt Democrats a stinging blow in a traditionally blue district.

Turner defeated State Assemblyman David Weprin 53 percent to 47 percent, with 79 percent of precincts reporting. In Nevada, Republican Mark Amodei, a 12-year member of the state Senate, cruised to victory over Democrat Kate Marshall, the state treasurer, 57 percent to 32 percent, with 68 percent of precincts reporting.

...

Turner's victory in NY-9 can be seen as a referendum of sorts on Obama. "If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district," Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen wrote on Sunday. "Obama won 55 percent there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31 percent approval rating, with 56 percent of voters disapproving of him."

A Lot of Bad Numbers for the President

Resurgent Republic reports on a new poll:

By almost every measure, President Obama's prospects for reelection are bad.

Most Americans:

• Think the country is on the wrong track (67 percent);
• Believe Obama has turned out to be a weaker leader than they expected (60 percent);
• Think his policies have made things worse for most Americans (50 percent);
• Disapprove of Obama’s job performance (50 percent);
• Disapprove of his handling of the economy (57 percent);
• Think it is time to give someone else a chance to be President (52 percent).

USA Today reports:

President Obama is lagging behind Republicans in the chase for political moderate voters in 12 battleground states, according to a new poll by the centrist Democratic group Third Way.

About 59% of "switchers," voters who backed Obama in 2008 but voted for a Republican in the midterm elections, say the president's party is more liberal than they are and that their political views align more closely with Republicans. Among the 400 switchers polled, 16% said they would vote for Obama again; 25% said they would back the Republican nominee; and 59% were categorized as "persuadable switchers."

"The problem is that they don't see Obama and Democrats in their (ideological) neighborhood," Jim Kessler, vice president for policy at Third Way, said of the switchers. "But we feel it's possible for Democrats to move themselves along the continuum to a center direction."

If the economy is a leading indicator, the president's prospects are not going to improve anytime soon. Investor's Business Daily reports:

Real wages are falling sharply, pinching Americans' buying power and raising the risks for a fragile economy and President Obama's re-election hopes.

With more than 4 unemployed workers available for every job opening, pressure on wages has been intense.

Inflation-adjusted weekly earnings have fallen significantly in recent months, likely falling more than 1.5% vs. a year earlier in August. That would be the biggest drop since the height of the financial crisis in late 2008.

Real disposable income per capita — seen by some researchers as the most important factor in people's well-being and voting patterns — has leveled off well below pre-recession levels and may be rolling over.

USA Today reports:

The median income of U.S. households fell 2.3% in 2010 to the lowest level since 1996 after adjusting for inflation, the Census Bureau reported Tuesday.

The annual report also said the number of families living in poverty rose 2.6 million to 46.2 million, the largest increase since Census began keeping track 52 years ago. Long-term unemployment has left millions of people out of work and struggling to find jobs.

"It's all about joblessness," said Timothy Smeeding, director of the Institute for the Research of Poverty at the University of Wisconsin. "Young guys don't have work, and poverty would be even higher if so many 25- to 34-year-olds weren't living at home with their parents."