Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
Maeve Reston and Theodoric Meyer at WP:
History and dismal public polling suggest President Donald Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax bill, approved by Congress this week, could help Democrats win back the House in the 2026 midterm elections.
The bill is deeply unpopular — with nearly 2-to-1 opposition, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted in June. But Republicans still have an opportunity to shape public perception of the bill because more than a third of Americans had no opinion of it and two-thirds said they had heard either little or nothing about it.
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While Trump made substantial inroads with low-income voters in the 2024 election, the top 10 percent of earners get about 80 percent of the bill’s benefits, according to the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton budget model. The bill also makes deep cuts to federal support for wind and solar power and other renewable technologies — leading some experts to warn that the legislation could raise energy prices for consumers at a time when demand is soaring
....Trump has pledged not to cut Medicaid and has falsely claimed that the bill simply targets waste, fraud and abuse in the program. But at least 17 million Americans will lose their health care coverage, according to nonpartisan estimates — the result of the bill’s cuts to Medicaid, the expiration of subsidies for health insurance on the Affordable Care Act marketplaces, and other Republican changes. That could pose a major liability for vulnerable Republicans such as Rep. David G. Valadao, who represents a district in California’s Central Valley with one of the highest numbers of Medicaid recipients in the country, according to an analysis by KFF.
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The bill includes a $6,000 deduction for seniors — which stemmed from Trump’s campaign pledge — but the provision will not benefit tens of millions of low-income seniors, who do not have a sufficient tax liability to claim the deduction. Our colleague Jeff Stein has the details on who will benefit here
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Working-class voters in the swing state of Nevada — many of whom work in the hospitality industry — frequently cited Trump’s promises to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime as a reason they were leaning toward voting for Trump. Partially fulfilling those promises could help Republicans running in three Democratic-held House seats in Nevada that are perennial battlegrounds. (Both provisions will be phased out at the end of 2028.).
Don't overlook this. By backloading Medicaid cuts until 2027/2028, Trump and GOP have ensured that the bloodbath will start when JD Vance's 2028 campaign really gets going. "Working class populist" Vance will have to defend that carnage in real time.https://t.co/1gjAxXtLaA pic.twitter.com/HhB1ojuLuu
— Greg Sargent (@GregTSargent) July 5, 2025
