Bullock 2020?

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the early stages of the 2016 campaign, when many candidates were unknowns.  We are now in the early stages of the 2020 race.

At The Hill, Lloyd Green writes about Democratic reactions to the Kavanaugh SCOTUS nomination:

Where things got interesting is with Steve Bullock, Montana’s Democratic governor and another possible 2020 presidential candidate. Last night, Bullock was speaking in his deepest blue voice, and saying: “Our fundamental rights as Americans are at stake, from access to basic healthcare and a woman’s right to choose to voting rights, workers’ rights and marriage equality.” For the record, Bullock won reelection by five points, even amidst Trump’s 21 percent statewide blowout.

Paul Bedard at The Washington Examiner:

Montana Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock is edging closer to a 2020 presidential bid, according to associates.

Bullock, a rare mix of outdoorsman, tax cutter and Washington lawyer, is being encouraged to run by those who see the list of potential Trump challengers filling up with Washington liberals. 

At The Washington Post, Aaron Blake lists him among potential candidates "worth watching." 

FULL DISCLOSURE: GOVERNOR BULLOCK WAS MY STUDENT.

Craziness in Georgia

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional politics as well as the presidential race.

Emily Birnbaum at The Hill:

GOP Georgia gubernatorial candidate Brian Kemp on Monday released an audio recording of his opponent, Georgia’s lieutenant governor, saying the GOP primary in Georgia was about “who had the biggest gun, who had the biggest truck, and who could be the craziest.”

“The issues you talk about are the issues I care about as well,” Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle said in the audio recording to Clay Tippins, former candidate for Georgia governor. “The problem is in a primary — and you and I are just talking off the record ... they don’t give a f--- about those things.”

“In the general election, they care about it,” he added. “But they don’t care about it in a primary. This primary felt like it was who had the biggest gun, who had the biggest truck, and who could be the craziest.”

Kemp and Cagle are running against each other in Georgia’s July 24 GOP primary runoff to represent the Republican party in November's general election against the Democratic candidate, former state representative Stacey Abrams.

Cagle once boasted a considerable lead over Kemp, but Cagle’s numbers have taken a hit in recent weeks, partially because of the audio originally released by Tippins, according to the Albany Herald.

In the full audio recording, Cagle derides a bill that he voted for.

“It ain’t about public policy,” Cagle says in the recording, according to The Gainesville Times. “It’s about f---ing politics.”

 

Frist: Protect Mueller

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Russian involvement in the 2016 campaign.

Former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) in The Washington Post:

I’m a Republican because I stand for small government and also, as a physician, for the dignity of every life. But I am also a Republican because I believe in the rule of law. Republicans must fight for that principle today — even if it means pushing back against a Republican administration. As a party, we can’t let the president or his allies erode the independence of the Justice Department or public trust in the vital work of law enforcement. That would be true even if the stakes were much lower, but it is overwhelmingly so when it comes to investigating foreign interference in our elections. Congress must ensure that Mueller is able to do his job without interference or intimidation.

North Korea: Heckuva Job, Orangie

In Defying the Odds, we discuss foreign policy issues in the 2016 campaign.

Mike Allen at Axios:

President Trump prides himself on negotiating savvy. But North Korea is trying to outfox him with a return to harsh public rhetoric immediately after the first overnight visit by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who came with press in tow.

• After last month's Singapore summit, Trump tweeted: "There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea. ... sleep well tonight!" He assured reporters: "[T]hat problem is largely solved." On Tuesday, he congratulated himself: "If not for me, we would now be at War with North Korea!"
• But then Pyongyang issued a statement accusing Pompeo of trying to jam them with denuclearization demands: "The U.S. is fatally mistaken if it went to the extent of regarding that [North Korea] would be compelled to accept, out of its patience, demands reflecting its gangster-like mindset."

...
A smart reading-between-the-lines of the North Korean statement comes from Vipin Narang, an MIT specialist on North Korean nukes, who tweeted:

• "This is not the end of the process. It’s a negotiating tactic, but signals several serious things: (1) We aren’t unilaterally disarming. Stop saying it. Stop asking for it. Never going to happen. (2) Any other stuff short of that? Gonna cost you chief. And burn a lot of clock."

Chaos President, July 2018

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's management style.

Greg Jaffe, Josh Dawsey and Carol D. Leonnig at WP:

The core of Trump’s freewheeling approach has been in place since his earliest days in the White House. Shortly after he took office, Trump began passing out his personal cellphone number to a handful of foreign leaders, and in April 2017, White House aides were startled when officials in Canada issued a standard summary of a conversation between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Trump. In it, Trudeau complained of “unfair duties” and “baseless” claims about trade by Trump administration officials.
No one at the White House was aware the call had taken place. “We had no idea what happened,” a senior U.S. official said.

Typically, such calls, even with close allies, are choreographed affairs. Regional experts prepare talking points covering the wide array of issues that might be raised. The national security adviser will brief the president ahead of the call and remain by his side to offer advice. After the call, a transcript is distributed to key aides, who will issue a public readout.

In this instance, U.S. officials had to rely on Trump’s memory. A terse public readout described “a very amicable call.”

After the call, White House aides urged Trump to route all conversations with foreign leaders through the Situation Room, as required under federal records law, the senior official said.

Trump’s lack of preparation has added a further level of unpredictability to his interactions with foreign leaders, the officials said. The president rarely reads his nightly briefing book, which focuses on issues likely to come up in meetings, a second senior U.S. official said. To slim down Trump’s workload, aides have sometimes put the most critical information in a red folder, the official said.

Susan B. Glasser in The New Yorker:

This Trump Unchained era is merely proof that no aide, not even a brusque Marine general with a chest full of medals, is going to bring order to a President determined to have his own way. It’s now clear that Trump is making major decisions without even a nod to the process and order that Kelly was supposedly bringing to his office; no one pretends that major moves, such as the risky nuclear summit with North Korea or recent conflicts with Congress over immigration and the budget, are the result of anything other than the President’s own spur-of-the-moment strategizing. At the same time, Trump has systematically undermined Kelly’s authority, telling both his new national-security adviser, John Bolton, and his chief economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, that they should report to him directly, not to Kelly. White House officials have also confirmed to reporters that many of the visible signs of Kelly’s authority—such as controlling access to Trump and the list of callers who can be put through to the President—are no more. Trump has, at times, gone to extreme lengths to get around his chief of staff, such as by conducting government business on his unsecured personal cell phone to avoid Kelly’s rules. (“An example,” CNN reported, of Kelly’s “waning influence.”) When I interviewed an outside Trump adviser whom the President consulted on a pressing national-security issue, the Republican told me a similar story: Trump, he recounted, had called him on a personal cell phone. When the adviser learned that the call wasn’t on a secure line, he warned Trump not to tell him what he was planning, but simply to listen. The President, who made so much of Hillary Clinton’s sloppy handling of confidential communications, was now apparently so eager to get around his own chief of staff that he was willing to take such risks.

Brookings tracks turnover in the administration.

A Bonkers Speech

  In Defying the Odds, we discuss Russian involvement in the 2016 campaign.

Remarks in Great Falls, Montana, July 5:

So anytime I suggest anything -- so we've got $33 billion -- it's going to be a lot more money than that. But then they say, let's see, he's angry at NATO. I guess, yeah, he loves Russia. I love Russia. I will say this, I am meeting with President Putin next week and getting along -- let me tell you, getting along with Russia and getting along with China and getting along with other countries is a good thing. It's not a bad thing. It's a good thing.
...
"Will he be prepared? Will he be prepared?" And I might even end up having a good relationship, but they're going, "Will President Trump be prepared? You know, President Putin is KGB and this and that." You know what? Putin's fine. He's fine. We're all fine. We're people.

Will I be prepared? Totally prepared. I've been preparing for this stuff my whole life. They don't say that.
...
A vote for the Democrats in November is a vote to let MS-13 run wild in our communities.

To let drugs pour into our cities, and to take jobs and benefits away from our hardworking Americans, and we're not letting it happen.

Democrats want anarchy, they really do, and they don't know who they're playing with, folks.

I said it the other day, yes, she is a low IQ individual, Maxine Waters. I said it the other day. High -- I mean, honestly, she's somewhere in the mid-60s, I believe that.

Wacko Senate Candidate Has Wacko Husband

In Defying the Odds, we discuss congressional elections as well as the presidential race.

Andrew Kaczynski and Nathan McDermott report at CNN:

Arizona US Senate candidate Kelli Ward's husband has a history of promoting fringe conspiracy theories on social media, a CNN KFile review has found.

Mark Ward, who like his wife is a doctor, is an Arizona political activist and heavily involved in his wife's campaign for the Republican nomination for US Senate in Arizona in the race to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake. He frequently appears at campaign events, knocks on doors to speak with voters and has even appeared at a local event on his wife's behalf.

On Twitter, Mark Ward retweeted users who suggested that a murdered staffer of the Democratic National Committee, Seth Rich, was involved in the hacking of the organization's emails and who implied a conspiracy theory to cover up his death.

...

In March 2017, Ward claimed on Twitter that McCain "supports, funds, equips and trains #ISIS"

Ward frequently mocked McCain for his age on Twitter. In July 2016, Ward said that McCain "is the weakness frail and scared guy that won't debate @kelliwardaz." Also in July 2016, Ward tweeted that McCain was "a senior citizen masquerading as a competent Senator."

In June 2016, Ward retweeted an image calling McCain a "senile old fart" who "loves illegal immigrants" and "thinks he can make it all okay by calling himself a 'war hero.'"

In August 2016, he tweeted that McCain was old, stale, and feckless. Also in August 2016, Ward tweeted that McCain was too "scared and frail" to debate his wife.