More on Abortion and the Midwest Results

 Our recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.  Trump is now under indictment.  And there are signs that the tide is turning against the GOP.

Ryan Lizza et al at Politico:

WSJ BADGERS GOP ON ABORTION — As is often the case, a big DONALD TRUMP spectacle blotted out some other major political news this week.

A quiet unease among Republicans about the election results in the Midwest on Tuesday is now a full-blown freakout.

In Wisconsin, JANET PROTASIEWICZ, campaigning unapologetically on abortion rights, won an open Supreme Court seat, giving Democrats a 4-3 majority on the court, which is now likely to strike down an 1849 law banning abortion.

In Chicago, progressive BRANDON JOHNSON defeated moderate PAUL VALLAS in the mayoral contest.
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“I don’t think Democrats have fully processed that this country is now 10 to 15 percent more pro-choice than it was before Dobbs in state after state and national data,” CELINDA LAKE recently told New York mag’s Rebecca Traister.

OK, sure, she’s a pro-choice Democratic pollster.

But here’s what The Wall Street Journal editorial page says today: “the Badger State results are a five-alarm warning to Republicans about 2024.”
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We suspect the Journal’s warning will be closely read this morning in Tallahassee, where Republicans, who have a supermajority in the state legislature, are poised next week to send Gov. RON DeSANTIS a bill to ban abortion after six weeks of pregnancy. (The previous threshold was 24 weeks, and after Dobbs, a new law reduced it to 15 weeks.)

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Related reads: “Wisconsin and Chicago elections expose liabilities in GOP case for ’24,” by Shia Kapos and Christopher Cadelago … “Wisconsin’s stunning outcome puts MAGA Republicans in a serious bind,” op-ed by WaPo’s Greg Sargent … “The pulsating state politics that could shape America more than Trump’s legal woes,” by CNN’s Stephen Collinson

Wisconsin Supreme Court

 Our recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.  Trump is now under indictment.  And there are signs that the tide is turning against the GOP.

Pre-election chatter that Trump indictment could juice GOP performance in Wisconsin didn't happen - this showing looks worse than the D margin in the first round

Just like back in August when the Mar-a-Lago search didn't appear to help Rs in some House specials later that month

— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) April 5, 2023

Reid J. Epstein at NYT:

Wisconsin voters on Tuesday chose to upend the political direction of their state by electing a liberal candidate to the State Supreme Court, flipping majority control from conservatives, according to The Associated Press. The result means that in the next year, the court is likely to reverse the state’s abortion ban and end the use of gerrymandered legislative maps drawn by Republicans.

Janet Protasiewicz, a liberal Milwaukee County judge, overwhelmingly defeated Daniel Kelly, a conservative former Wisconsin Supreme Court justice who sought a return to the bench. With more than 95 percent of votes counted by Wednesday morning, Judge Protasiewicz led by 11 percentage points, a huge margin in the narrowly divided state.

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In 2020, Wisconsin’s Supreme Court was the only one in the country to agree to hear President Donald J. Trump’s challenge to the presidential election. Mr. Trump sought to invalidate 200,000 ballots from the state’s two largest Democratic counties. The Wisconsin court rejected his claim on a 4-to-3 vote, with one of the conservative justices siding with the court’s three liberals on procedural grounds.

That key vote gave this year’s court race extra importance, because the justices will weigh in on voting and election issues surrounding the 2024 election. Wisconsin, where Mr. Trump’s triumph in 2016 interrupted a string of Democratic presidential victories going back to 1988, is set to again be ferociously contested.

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Once Judge Protasiewicz assumes her place on the court on Aug. 1, the first priority for Wisconsin Democrats will be to bring a case to challenge the current legislative maps, which have given Republicans all but unbreakable control of the state government in Madison.

BUT: 

FIRST ALERT: AP projects Republican Dan Knodl won the special election for Wisconsin's 8th Senate district. Knodl has said he wants to impeach Milwaukee judges, including Janet Protasiewicz. Now the Legislature would have the votes to do it. https://t.co/rdCj30WOo1

— WBAY-TV 2 (@WBAY) April 5, 2023

Statement of Facts

Our recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.  Trump is now under indictment.

Statement of Facts in the Trump indictment:

1. The defendant DONALD J. TRUMP repeatedly and fraudulently falsified New York business records to conceal criminal conduct that hid damaging information from the voting public during the 2016 presidential election.

2. From August 2015 to December 2017, the Defendant orchestrated a scheme with others to influence the 2016 presidential election by identifying and purchasing negative information about him to suppress its publication and benefit the Defendant’s electoral prospects. In order to execute the unlawful scheme, the participants violated election laws and made and caused false entries in the business records of various entities in New York. The participants also took steps that mischaracterized, for tax purposes, the true nature of the payments made in furtherance of the scheme.

3. One component of this scheme was that, at the Defendant’s request, a lawyer who then worked for the Trump Organization as Special Counsel to Defendant (“Lawyer A”), covertly paid $130,000 to an adult film actress shortly before the election to prevent her from publicizing a sexual encounter with the Defendant. Lawyer A made the $130,000 payment through a shell corporation he set up and funded at a bank in Manhattan. This payment was illegal, and Lawyer A has since pleaded guilty to making an illegal campaign contribution and served time in prison. Further, false entries were made in New York business records to effectuate this payment, separate and apart from the New York business records used to conceal the payment. 4. After the election, the Defendant reimbursed Lawyer A for the illegal payment through a series of monthly checks, first from the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust (the “Defendant’s Trust”)—a Trust created under the laws of New York which held the Trump Organization entity assets after the Defendant was elected President—and then from the Defendant’s bank account. Each check was processed by the Trump Organization, and each check was disguised as a payment for legal services rendered in a given month of 2017 pursuant to a retainer agreement. The payment records, kept and maintained by the Trump Organization, were false New York business records. In truth, there was no retainer agreement, and Lawyer A was not being paid for legal services rendered in 2017. The Defendant caused his entities’ business records to be falsified to disguise his and others’ criminal conduct.

A Problem for DeSantis

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  The early stages of the 2024 race have begun.  The race between Trump and DeSantis is nasty.  Now Trump can raise questions about the governor's basic competence.

 Robbie Whelan and Arian Campo-Flores at WSJ:

Walt Disney Co. for now has outmaneuvered Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the battle for control over the more than 24,000-acre parcel of land near Orlando where Walt Disney World Resort is located.

In February, Disney went before a local board and secured approvals for the next 30 years on zoning, infrastructure and air-rights that the company might need if it chooses to expand Disney World, giving the company an advantage that has become clearer in recent days.

This week, those approvals were criticized by members of a new board that was created by the Republican governor to strip Disney of governing control over the land’s special tax district, known as Reedy Creek. Mr. DeSantis, who has been clashing with Disney for more than a year, appointed the new board after the February meeting.
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Juan-Carlos Planas, a former Republican legislator in Florida who has taught law school courses about Reedy Creek’s legal structure, said it would likely be very difficult for the district to do anything about the plan. ..“Disney didn’t do anything secret. They publicized it, they advertised it,” Mr. Planas said. “If you’re in Tallahassee, and you’re replacing the board, how do you not know what that board is doing in their public meeting? This was negligence on the part of the governor’s office and Republican legislators.”

 Aaron Blake at WP:

Other potential 2024 hopefuls have suggested DeSantis’s moves against Disney run afoul of the party’s traditionally conservative, small-government approach to private business.

“The idea of going after [Disney’s] taxing authority — that was beyond the scope of what I as a conservative, a limited-government Republican, would be prepared to do,” former vice president Mike Pence said last month. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) has said that it “isn’t very conservative” to be “penalizing your business because they disagree with you politically.”

DeSantis initially claimed that the effort wasn’t about retaliation against Disney but rather his opposition to such special tax statuses. But he has at other times pointed to Disney’s political moves, labeling it a “woke” company.

The reignition of his showdown with Disney also comes as multiple polls have shown DeSantis losing ground to former president Donald Trump. A Fox News poll released late Wednesday showed Trump expanding his 15-point lead from last month to 30 points.

In addition to that headache, DeSantis is now faced with making good on his major claims to having brought Disney to heel.

Gym Jordan in the Center Ring

Our recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.  Trump is now under indictment.

 From Axios:

Creepy Trump Stuff from NY Republican Club

 Our book, Divided We Stand, looks at the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection.  Some Republican leaders -- and a measurable number of rank-and-file voters -- are open to violent rebellion, coups, and secession. 

New York Republican Club:

President Trump embodies the American people—our psyche from id to super-ego—as does no other figure; his soul is totally bonded with our core values and emotions, and he is our total and indisputable champion. This tremendous connection threatens the established order.

The fix has always been “in” against our President, but his motivation and love for the American people drove him to pursue the national excellence that his unique vision perceived lay within our reach. In doing so, he opened so many eyes to reality.

Last summer, in Tampa Florida, addressing a crowd of thousands of youths, President Trump stated that if he backed down from challenging the regime, he would have been left alone. That the regime now sheds the mask of “democracy” and unveils its true and hideous face shows how committed President Trump is to standing with the people. Every American owes him thanks.

Despite our tremendous success holding marquee protests in Manhattan for critical rightwing causes, today we remain at home. Let our silence be a condemnation of the captivity of our nation; a polemic on the state of our republic. We will not allow another Fedsurrection; we will not be pawns in the Deep State’s perpetual effort to delegitimize Americans’ fundamental right of assembly.

President Trump assured us that he was our retribution. Now we must return the rejoinder: our victory will be the joint vindication that our great President Donald J. Trump and our American people both deserve. This is Total War.

DeSantis Promises to Violate the Constitution

Our recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.  Trump is now under indictment.

Kimberly Leonard and Jacob Shamsian at Business Insider:

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida pledged Thursday that state officials would not help extradite former President Donald Trump from Florida to New York in a charged political attack on the prosecutor, following the first-ever indictment of a former president.

DeSantis in a statement on Twitter accused Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg of "stretching the law to target a political opponent," though he didn't name Trump or Bragg.

"Florida will not assist in an extradition request given the questionable circumstances at issue with this Soros-backed Manhattan prosecutor and his political agenda," he wrote on Twitter, referring to Democratic super PAC megadonor George Soros who did not directly support Bragg.

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And interstate extradition is required by Article 4, Section 2 of the US Constitution.