Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
Americans prefer Democrats to Republicans in the congressional midterm elections by only a slim margin, but Democratic supporters are far more motivated to vote, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll.
Because of partisan redistricting that favors Republicans this year, analysts estimate that Democrats need to win by three to four percentage points overall to gain a majority in the House. The poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by about that margin, 48 percent to 45 percent.
The blue advantage grows to eight points among those “absolutely certain to vote,” with 53 percent of highly motivated voters supporting Democrats and 45 percent supporting Republicans.
Republicans are not losing by a wide margin among the broader electorate despite President Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity and broad concerns about the economy, the war with Iran and immigration issues.
But their supporters just aren’t as energized to turn up at the polls, the Post-Ipsos poll suggests. If Trump is able to mitigate some top concerns by Election Day — for example, by bringing down the price of gasoline or ending the war with Iran — then his push to draw new congressional districts in red states could be enough to retain the GOP majority in the House.
But the latest news suggests that the GOP's best-case scenario is increasingly unlikely.
