Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. Most incumbents on this year's ballot will win. But that share is likely to be smaller than the historical norm.
Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, record-low shares of U.S. registered voters say they would reelect their own representative or most members of Congress. For the first time in a final pre-midterm reading, less than half of voters (43%) think their own representative deserves another term, while 15% say the same for most members of Congress.
Before this year, support for reelecting one's own representative had ranged from 50% to 69% in Gallup's final pre-midterm readings dating back to 1994. Support for reelecting most members of Congress has consistently been lower, ranging from 21% to 58% over the same period.
Lisa Kashinsky and Aaron Pellish wrote in September at POLITICO:
It’s been a bad year to be an incumbent.
Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee’s ouster on Wednesday, the first primary defeat for an incumbent governor in eight years, caps off a primary season that’s seen longtime leaders fall across the map and politicians across both parties struggle to make the leap to higher office.
Thirteen members of Congress have lost their reelection bids: seven Democrats and six Republicans, including two GOP senators. At least 16 more who were trying to move from the House to the Senate or take on statewide office have lost primaries: nine Republicans and seven Democrats, including Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet who unsuccessfully ran for governor.
The upheaval has been driven by a confluence of factors that will continue to dog incumbents through November. Voters are frustrated with both parties’ leadership in Washington. President Donald Trump has targeted some GOP foes as he looks to cement his legacy; Democrats are in the midst of pitched generational and ideological battles. Some members in both parties faced daunting new district lines. Others faced scandals that sank them.
