Friday, October 24, 2014

Jerry Brown Mispronounces the Name of a Candidate He Endorses

California Governor Jerry Brown has cut a radio ad saying that State Senate candidate Jose Solorio was "one of my closest allies."

There's just one problem, as Gustavo Arellano reports at OC Weekly:
It's been a rough 2014 for Jose Solorio, the current Rancho Santiago Community College District trustee who made his name as a former SanTana councilmember, a state assemblymember, and the best political mustache since William Howard Taft. The bigote is gone, replaced by an upper lip that's far too sweaty for comfort. Solorio's campaign is facing a brutal attack by opponent (and current OC supervisor) Janet Nguyen. And even when Solorio gets a heavyweight in his corner, like he recently did when California governor Jerry Brown recorded some radio ads for him (currently airing on a loop on KFI-Am 640), the heavyweight goes Glass Joe on him in his effort. How bad? Brown couldn't even be bothered to pronounce Solorio's last name right for the ad, pronouncing it So-LAY-rio instead of the proper So-LOH-rio.


Outside Money: Pump It!

A release from the Campaign Finance Institute:
Independent spending has shifted into high gear during the closing weeks of the 2014 midterm congressional elections. Non-party organizations have spent nearly twice as much as formal party committees in reportable independent spending as of thirteen days before Election Day. This repeats the party/non-party balance of 2012, the first full election cycle after the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United.

Though the totals have not changed much since 2012, the balance between House and Senate has shifted markedly. Roughly half of the money that non-party organizations spent on House races in 2012 has now moved toward the Senate. And among Senate Republicans, non-party committees so far have spent nearly five times as much as the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).

American Crossroads and the allied Crossroads GPS stand out among non-party groups in 2014 general election expenditures. In addition to spending the most among non-party organizations, the Crossroads organizations by themselves have surpassed the NRSC in general election independent spending. On the other side of the aisle, it should be noted that the Senate Majority PAC’s primary election spending was almost entirely the functional equivalent of general election spending.

While the non-party organizations have spent more than the parties so far, the parties should be expected to close the gap at least partly during the campaign’s closing days. Over the past seven days, the party committees were four of the top five spenders. In addition, it should be remembered that parties may be able to buy more than non-party groups with the same amount of money, since the parties typically reserve their advertising time earlier.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

The Crossroads Groups Use Obama & Obamacare in House Races

In House races, the Crossroads groups are linking Democrats to Obama and Obamacare.

In Arkansas 2, American Crossroads attacks Patrick Henry Hays:

In Nevada 4, Crossroads GPS highlights Rep. Steven Horsford's pro-Obama voting record:

In New Jersey 3, Crossroads GPS focuses on Aimee Belgard's local record, but works in a reference to her support for Obamacare.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Kashkari v Brown on Teacher Tenure

Carla Marinucci reports at The San Francisco Chronicle:
Republican gubernatorial candidate Neel Kashkari, who stirred controversy with an ad depicting a drowning boy, returned to the teacher-tenure issue to pound Gov. Jerry Brown in a new TV ad that debuted Tuesday.
The 60-second spot signals the former Treasury Department official’s determination to make the recent Vergara v. California court decision central to the governor’s race.
A Los Angeles County judge found that the state’s teacher tenure rules made it nearly impossible for districts to fire incompetent instructors, and therefore deprived poorer children of their equal right under the Constitution to a quality education.
Kashkari has seized on the Brown administration’s appeal of the ruling to criticize the governor for “betraying” schoolchildren.
Brown said in an interview with The Chronicle last week that the court case is merely “the latest” factor being cited by critics as the key to a good education for California’s children, and “it won’t be the last.”


Tuesday, October 21, 2014

A Blue State in a Red Tide: The 2014 Midterm Elections

The Big Picture

Historical patterns:
Campaign money:
Good news for the in-party:
But the good news is not really that great:
The House

"All Folks Who Vote With Me"

Aaron Blake reports at The Washington Post:
A couple weeks ago, President Obama declared that, while he wasn't on the Nov. 4 ballot, his policies were. And just about every GOP candidate in a red or swing state soon launched an ad using that comment to tie his or her Democratic opponent to Obama.
Well, Obama appears to have just handed Republicans some more ammunition.
In an interview with Rev. Al Sharpton on Monday, Obama defended his support for candidates in top races who haven't welcomed Obama to campaign with them.
"The bottom line is, though, these are are all folks who vote with me; they have supported my agenda in Congress," Obama said.

That approach is just fine with the Crossroads groups.

Crossroads GPS says that Kay Hagan sides with Obama instead of North Carolina:

Crossroads GPS uses the"my policies" quotation and says that Kay Hagan votes with the president 95 percent of the time.

In Arkansas, it says that Mark Pryor voted with him 93 percent of the time:

In Alaska, American Crossroads points out that Mark Begich voted with POTUS 97 percent of the time.

And in New Hampshire, it re-purposes an earlier attack on Pryor to say that "Shaheen" spells "Obama."