Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.
A brief op-ed that originally appeared (in Spanish) at La Tercera:
The American airstrikes on Iran may have caused severe damage to the country’s nuclear program. But they will probably have little impact on domestic politics in the United States.
American voters seldom care about international issues except when American lives or economic interests are at stake. Events in the Middle East capture public attention only if they involve hostages, terror attacks, or oil shortages. Fortunately, the bombing has not had any serious material consequences for the United States – at least, not yet.Even when Americans do think about events in other countries, their opinions increasingly fall along party lines, with Republicans on one side and Democrats on the other. According to a recent poll from CBS News, 85 percent of Republicans approve of the Iran attacks, while 87 percent of Democrats disapprove.This partisan entrenchment means that presidents cannot move public opinion very much, even when they achieve major successes. For a decade after the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, Osama bin Laden eluded American efforts to bring him to justice. In 2011, under President Obama’s leadership, U.S. commandos finally killed him. But in public opinion polls, Obama’s approval rating rose only a few percentage points for a few weeks. The following year, he became the first president to win reelection while losing the popular vote share.So far, the extent of the bombing damage in Iran remains uncertain, which means that each side will have its own interpretation of what happened. Republicans will echo President Trump’s claim that he obliterated Iran’s nuclear program. Democrats will say that Trump dishonestly exaggerated his success. What is clear is that the 2026 congressional elections in the United States are very likely to hinge on other issues, such as the state of the economy.
