Toss-Up America

In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020. 

 At Axios, Jim Vande Hei and Mike Allenn offer eight immutable laws of Toss-up America. 

1. The 50-50 rule. Only twice since 2000 has the White House, Senate or House not flipped. Hence, constant political volatility. Move a few hundred thousand votes in three states in 2016 or 2020, and the loser would have been president.
2. The popularity mirage. Democrats have won the popular vote for president in seven of the last eight elections. But they still lost the electoral vote, which decides the winner — George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016. The same dynamic is often true for House and Senate races. Democrats pack themselves so tightly into big cities in big states, which is why those red and blue maps look like red seas.
3. Women rule — voting. More women than men have voted in every election since 1980 — and almost always a majority for Dems. The number of U.S. women registered to vote is typically 7 million to 10 million more than the number of men, according to the Center for American Women and Politics. Among young women (ages 18 to 29) in six swing states, N.Y. Times-Siena College polls in August found an astonishing 38-point advantage for Harris (67%-29%).
4. Most states don't matter. Both parties see the same seven swing states for the White House. The states change a bit — but the number hardly budges. The ballgame in 2024 will be the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania + the fast-growing Sun Belt swath of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina. You can boil it down to: Harris needs Pennsylvania, and Trump needs Georgia. In the past four elections, 40 states have voted for the same party.
5. The Trump hump. Roughly 45% of voters are diehards who can be expected to be with him no matter what. But he also has a ceiling: He didn't break 47% in 2016 or 2020, and is unlikely to go much above that this year. That's why third parties and double-haters matter on the margins.
6. The Senate is almost always in play. It all comes down to which 33 states have Senate races in a given two-year cycle. It's all about the map. And this year, Republicans have a formidable advantage: West Virginia is certain to go red after the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin. Democrats have to win Trump-friendly Ohio and Montana — plus the White House — for a 50-50 Senate majority, with the vice president as the tie-breaker. Candidate quality plays an outsized role: Republican Senate candidates have consistently underperformed Trump in battleground polling, giving Democrats an edge in what otherwise would be toss-ups. But Dems also face tough maps in 2026 and 2028.
7. Flipping the House is easier than ever. Redistricting — and self-sorting, where conservatives and liberals literally move next to like-minded neighbors — has rendered 400 of 435 races over before they begin. Rural areas and big cities are rarely, if ever, competitive. After several changes Friday, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates only 24 House races as toss-ups, with 13 held by Republicans and 11 held by Dems — a nearly even split. Dave Wasserman, Cook's senior editor and election analyst, tells us Democrats need to win 15 of 24 toss-ups (60%) to win the majority. They won 75% of Cook's toss-ups (27/36) in 2022.
8. There's no Election Day. Yes, Nov. 5 is technically Election Day. But most people voted long before. COVID "accelerated voting trends that had been building for the past decade," Doug Sosnik, a top adviser to President Clinton, wrote last year in his "10 New Rules of American Politics." Several key states — including the biggest prize of all, Pennsylvania — start early voting this month.
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10. Stat for the road: Dave "I've Seen Enough" Wasserman turned us onto a fascinating metric. In a House where Republicans hold the narrowest majority, just 16 districts out of 435 (4%!) voted for a different party for president than for House — toss-up America.

Pessimism on the HIll

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Emily Brooks and Mychael Schnell at The Hill:

Rep. Tony Gonzales’s (R-Texas) pessimistic prediction that the House GOP conference will lose its majority in November is sparking frustrations among Republican lawmakers, while underscoring just how competitive the race for the lower chamber will be this fall.

The surprise comments from Gonzales at the Texas Tribune Festival on Thursday drew widespread attention, breaking from the positive expectations other GOP lawmakers have publicly hammered home.

Ally Mutnick at Politico:

Republicans are racing to plug a massive money hole — before it’s too late.

The leader of House Republicans’ biggest super PAC told donors last month he needed $35 million more to compete with Democrats in the fall. Senate GOP campaign chair Steve Daines used his primetime speaking slot at the Republican convention to lament that massive spending from Democrats was keeping him awake at night. And his House GOP counterpart warned that their party’s challengers trailed Democratic incumbents by a collective $37 million at the end of June.

 

A Bad Day for Trump

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.  Dick and Liz Cheney are supporting Harris.

Adam Wren and Megan Messerly at Politico:

Former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney made clear her war against former President Donald Trump won’t be limited to her endorsement of Kamala Harris and will include campaigning in battleground states this fall.

In an interview Friday at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, Cheney also said her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, would be voting for Harris. The audience erupted in cheers after she mentioned her father’s vote.

When you are running behind in a presidential race, it is not a best practice to remind people that a jury found you liable for sexual abuse.  AP:

Veering from the campaign trail to a courtroom, Donald Trump quietly observed Friday as his lawyer fought to overturn a verdict finding the former president liable for sexual abuse and defamation.

The Republican nominee and his accuser, E. Jean Carroll, a writer, sat at tables about 15 feet (4.5 meters) apart, in a Manhattan federal appeals court. Trump didn’t acknowledge or look at Carroll as he passed directly in front of her on the way in and out, but he sometimes shook his head, including when Carroll’s attorney said he sexually attacked her.

Trump attorney D. John Sauer told three 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals judges that the civil trial in Carroll’s lawsuit was muddied by improper evidence.

“This case is a textbook example of implausible allegations being propped up by highly inflammatory, inadmissible” evidence, Sauer said, noting that jurors saw the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape in which Trump boasted in 2005 about grabbing women’s genitals because when someone is a star, “you can do anything.”
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Carroll’s lawyer, Roberta Kaplan, told judges the evidence in question was proper, and that there was plenty of proof in the nearly two-week-long trial of Carroll’s claim that Trump attacked her in a luxury department store dressing room decades ago. She said the “Access Hollywood” tape, as the trial judge had noted, could be viewed as a confession.

“E. Jean Carroll brought this case because Donald Trump sexually assaulted her in 1996, in a dressing room at Bergdorf Goodman, and then defamed her in 2022 by claiming that she was crazy and made the whole thing up,” Kaplan said.

Carroll, standing with Kaplan outside the courthouse afterward, declined to comment.

Trump left court in a motorcade, then delivered a lengthy diatribe against the case at Trump Tower, where he said again that Carroll — and other women who had accused him of sexual assault — were making everything up.

“It’s so false. It’s a made up, fabricated story by somebody, I think, initially, just looking to promote a book,” Trump said. Carroll first spoke publicly about her encounter with Trump in a newly published memoir in 2019.

In remarks to reporters Friday, Trump repeated many claims about Carroll that a jury has already deemed defamatory, and added some new ones, like suggesting that a photograph of him and Carroll together in 1987 was produced by artificial intelligence. It was unclear whether his comments could lead to a new defamation lawsuit by Carroll.

“I’ve said before and I’ll say it again: all options are on the table,” Kaplan said after Trump’s news conference.

Facts of Life and Death

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.  And neither is the selection of J.D. Vance as its vice presidential candidate.  (Dem oppo folks are doing well.)

Rebecca Falconer at Axios:

Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) made clear in comments Thursday they have very different ideas in how to respond to gun violence in the wake of the Apalachee High School shooting that killed four people and injured nine others.

Driving the news: A CNN reporter asked Vance at a Phoenix, Arizona, event what his policies were on ending school shootings after this week's massacre, which saw a 14-year-old student charged with four counts of felony murder and his father facing charges including second-degree murder.Former President Trump's running mate said it was an "awful tragedy" and called for the bolstering of security in schools.

"If these psychos are going to go after our kids, we've got to be prepared for it," Vance said. "We don't have to like the reality that we live in, but it is the reality we live in. We've got to deal with it," he added.

"I don't like that this is a fact of life, but if you are a psycho and you want to make headlines, you realize that our schools are soft targets. And we have got to bolster security at our schools. We've got to bolster security so if a psycho wants to walk through the front door and kill a bunch of children, they're not able."

Meanwhile, Trump responded to a question from Fox News host Sean Hannity about the Georgia shooting during a Fox News town hall on Wednesday by saying: "It's a sick and angry world for a lot of reasons and we're going to make it better, and we're going to heal our world."

What they're saying "School shootings are not just a fact of life," Harris wrote on social media Thursday evening. "It doesn't have to be this way. We can take action to protect our children — and we will."

Russian Interference 2024

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses foreign influence and Trump's attack on democracy.  Russia helped Trump through 2020.

Russian influence operations have changed

 Alex Woodward at The Independent:

Federal law enforcement agencies have seized 32 Russian-backed websites that prosecutors say were designed to sow disinformation and discord ahead of 2024 elections and boost Donald Trump’s campaign.

Separately, two employees of Russia’s state-controlled media network RT have been criminally charged with allegedly launching a $10 million propaganda scheme that enlisted popular right-wing social media influencers.

The allegations revealed in warrants and unsealed indictments are evidence of Russia’s attempts to “engage in a covert campaign to interfere and influence the outcome of our country’s elections,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in remarks on Wednesday.

...

Prosecutors allege they relied on a Tennessee-based company and contracted with US-based social media influencers to target specific demographics and regions as part of a calculated effort to subvert the election.

That company — TENET Media, which is not mentioned by name in the indictment — includes a constellation of well-known right-wing influencers, including Tim Pool, Dave Rubin and Benny Johnson, among others.

RT employees helped publish nearly 2,000 English-language videos on TikTok, Instagram, X and YouTube, where they have racked up 16 million views, according to prosecutors

Harris Shares Campaign Wealth While Trump Demands Tribute

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses party organizations and campaign finance.

Hayes Brown at MSNBC:

In a sign of just how flush her campaign is as she enters the final turn signaled by Labor Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic National Committee on Tuesday pledged $25 million toward House, Senate and state-level races. That commitment is a major investment aimed at making it easier for Harris to govern if she’s elected president. 

The $25 million being doled out includes $10 million each to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which are focused on winning back the House and keeping the Senate. Another $2.5 million will go to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which helps in state legislature races, and $1 million each to the Democratic Governors Association and the Democratic Attorneys General Association.

With former President Donald Trump atop the Republican ticket, the GOP is in the opposite position financially. If the Harris campaign is a source of cash for other Democratic candidates, then the Trump campaign is a sponge, continuing to suck up precious resources other Republican candidates need ahead of a tight election. The cash disparity could not only determine the trajectory of the presidential race, but it might also help determine the direction of the country for the next two years.

Alex Isenstadt at Politico:

Former President Donald Trump’s campaign has found a new way to press for badly needed cash.

In a letter received by Republican digital vendors this week, the Trump campaign is asking for down-ballot candidates who use his name, image and likeness in fundraising appeals to give at least 5 percent of the proceeds to the campaign.

“Beginning tomorrow, we ask that all candidates and committees who choose to use President Trump’s name, image, and likeness split a minimum of 5% of all fundraising solicitations to Trump National Committee JFC. This includes but is not limited to sending to the house file, prospecting vendors, and advertising,” Trump co-campaign managers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita wrote in the letter, which is dated April 15.

The Fall Campaign Begins

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

Ryan Lizza et al. at Politico:

63 DAYS TO GO — Election Day is nine weeks from today. Absentee ballots will start getting mailed out in North Carolina on Friday. Early voting starts in Pennsylvania on Sept. 16. The first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is one week from today.

The main polling aggregators all show Harris with a lead:

• RCP: Harris +1.8 points
• 538: Harris +3.2 points
• Nate Silver: Harris +3.5 points
• The Economist: Harris +3.5 points

Eli Stokols and Alex Isenstadt break down the state of the race and give the momentum advantage to Harris, who is leading in the polls, in fundraising, and perhaps most crucially, in measures of enthusiasm.

Gallup last week recorded a 14-point advantage for Democrats when they measured which party’s voters are more enthusiastic about voting. Republicans led by 4 points on that question in March, when Biden was still the nominee.

DAVID PLOUFFE, who ran BARACK OBAMA’s two campaigns for president put his finger on perhaps the single biggest difference between the candidacies of Biden and Harris: “Of course people get motivated about voting against somebody. But when they’re as motivated or more motivated about voting for somebody, there’s magic there.”

Trump remains stuck where he has been for weeks: with no killer attack on Harris that has crystalized, no signs of a rebound in the polls, and public events where he still talks a lot about Biden, who has not been his opponent for more than six weeks.

Harris-Walz memo

August 18, 2024

To: Interested Parties

From: Quentin Fulks and Rob Flaherty, Deputy Campaign Managers for Harris-Walz 2024

Subject: Harris-Walz Cements Advertising Presence Through Election Day With Initial $370M Investment

Today, the Harris-Walz campaign is announcing that it will spend at least $370 million on digital and television advertising between Labor Day and Election Day. This weekend, our campaign is placing $170 million in TV reservations. This investment sits on top of what the campaign believes to be the largest digital reservation in the history of American politics at more than $200 million. All the while, the Trump team has reserved virtually no critical ad placements in the battlegrounds, and has no meaningful long-term plan to communicate to the voters who will decide this election.

In addition to these historic investments on the air, the Harris-Walz campaign is also reaching voters on the ground. Our coordinated campaign now includes more than 1,600 paid staff and more than 280 offices across the battlegrounds. This weekend, heading into the Democratic National Convention, we are mobilizing 2,800 events across our key states in order to reach the voters that will decide this election. More than 10,000 supporters signed up for volunteer shifts this weekend alone. Collectively, these investments into paid media and organizing make clear that the Harris-Walz campaign is taking no voters for granted and planning to communicate relentlessly to battleground voters every single day between now and Election Day.