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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Friday, November 17, 2017

Trump's Vulnerability

In  Defying the Oddswe discuss Trump's character..


Trump is sidestepping the Roy Moore story. He has good reason, given photos, videos, and stories involving Trump and minors.





German Lopez at CBS:
Donald Trump has said a lot of horrific things about adult women in the past year. But in a video unearthed by CBS News, Trump is seen targeting a different kind of victim: a young child.
In the 1992 video, Trump, who was 46 at the time, can be heard talking to a little girl, asking her if she’s going to go up an escalator. After she says she is, Trump turns to the camera and says, "I am going to be dating her in 10 years. Can you believe it?"
 Kendall Taggart, Jessica Garrison, Jessica Testa at Buzzfeed:
Four women who competed in the 1997 Miss Teen USA beauty pageant said Donald Trump walked into the dressing room while contestants — some as young as 15 — were changing.
“I remember putting on my dress really quick because I was like, ‘Oh my god, there’s a man in here,’” said Mariah Billado, the former Miss Vermont Teen USA.
Trump, she recalled, said something like, “Don’t worry, ladies, I’ve seen it all before.”
Tina Nguyen at Vanity Fair:
In a normal Republican administration, an allegation that Senator Al Franken, a Democrat, had groped a woman as she slept, accompanied by a damning photo, would be a political gift to the White House. When its occupant is Donald Trump, however, the story is altogether different—late in his presidential campaign, Trump was faced with accusations of sexual misconduct and assault from more than 16 women, which many believed would spell his political doom.
Trump and his ilk have vigorously denied the allegations, with press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders recently declaring from the podium that all of the president’s accusers are liars. But they’ve resurfaced in the wake of the Roy Moore scandal, which has left both Trump and the Republican Party metaphorically handcuffed to a Senate candidate accused of child molestation. Neither measure of hypocrisy seems to weigh on Trump, however, who gleefully ripped Franken Thursday night on Twitter.

 


Thursday, November 16, 2017

Tax Trouble

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the tax issue in the 2016 campaign. 

CNBC:
Most American voters — 52 percent — disapprove of the GOP proposals to overhaul the tax system, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday. Only 25 percent of respondents approve of the Republican effort.
The GOP says its push to chop taxes on businesses and individuals by year-end is designed to trim the burden on middle-class taxpayers while boosting job creation and wage growth.
  • Voters largely have not bought into the message, the Quinnipiac poll found.
  • Sixty-one percent of voters said the plan would mainly help the wealthy. Twenty-four percent responded that it would primarily benefit the middle class, while only 6 percent said the same about low-income people.
  • The proposals favor the rich at the expense of the middle class, 59 percent of respondents said. Only 33 percent disagreed with that statement.
  • Only 36 percent of respondents said the GOP effort will lead to more jobs and better economic growth. A majority, 52 percent, disagreed.
  • Thirty-six percent of voters said the proposals would not have much of an effect on their taxes. Thirty-five percent said the plan would increase what they pay, while 16 percent said it would reduce their tax burden.
NYT:
In a national survey of 9,504 adults conducted for The New York Times by the online polling firm SurveyMonkey, 78 percent of respondents said they did not believe they would receive a raise if their employer received a tax cut. Even many Republicans doubted they would benefit directly from a corporate tax cut: Roughly 70 percent of self-identified Republicans — and roughly 65 percent of people who said they strongly approved of President Trump’s performance in office — said they didn’t think they would get a pay increase.
LAT editorial:
But the bill’s cuts in personal tax rates, its increase in the standard deduction and other benefits for individual taxpayers are partially offset by reductions in some popular tax deductions — including those for state and local taxes and mortgage interest payments, many of whose beneficiaries live in states with high income or sales taxes and high property values. As a result, according to a new analysis by the left-leaning Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, the House bill would force taxpayers in California, New York, New Jersey and Maryland to pay $16.7 billion more in personal income taxes in 2027 than they would under current law, while taxpayers in the other 46 states would pay $101.5 billion less. More than one-third of the cuts would flow to Texas and Florida.

California would be the hardest hit of all, with its taxpayers kicking a cumulative $12.1 billion in additional taxes into the federal kitty in 2027, the institute’s analysis found. But it’s not just the higher taxes that will hurt — the lower caps on the deductions for property taxes and mortgage interest likely would have an immediate, chilling effect on property values across the state. That’s good news for first-time homebuyers, bad news for millions of others who already own homes in this costly market.

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Uranium One

 In Defying the Oddswe discuss the conservative media and attacks on Clinton:

 Alana Horowitz Satlin reports at The Huffington Post:
Fox News anchor Shep Smith broke from his network’s hyperventilating coverage of the “Uranium One” pseudoscandal to debunk allegations of wrongdoings by Hillary Clinton.

Smith, never one to blindly toe the party line, took to task President Donald Trump ― and, implicitly, his cable news network of choice ― over the “inaccurate” portrayal of the sale of a Canadian mining company with major U.S. holdings to a Russian company.

“Here’s the accusation,” Smith explained Tuesday. “Nine people involved in the deal made donations to the Clinton Foundation totaling more than $140 million. In exchange, Secretary of State Clinton approved the sale to the Russians — a quid pro quo.”

It’s a claim that has dominated Fox News in recent weeks after The Hill published a deeply flawed report about a “Russian bribery plot” involving the sale. Following pressure from the president and several Republican members of Congress, Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced earlier this week that the Justice Department would consider appointing a special counsel to review the deal as well as other matters involving Clinton and other Democrats.



Rep. Louis Gohmert has his version of a conspiracy chart:



Monday, November 13, 2017

"Fresh New Faces"

In Defying the Odds, we discuss problems that brought down the Democrats. 

One is incompetence.

Another is the party gerontocracy:  Feinstein, Pelosi, and Sanders, among others.


 

The Case of the Alabama Child Molester

In Defying the Odds, we discuss congressional elections as well as the presidential race.

Sean Sullivan and Elise Viebeck report at The Washington Post:
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Monday that Republican nominee Roy Moore should end his Senate campaign in Alabama, following allegations that he initiated a sexual encounter with a 14-year-old girl when he was 32.
“I think he should step aside,” McConnell said. His comments marked the most definitive position he has taken on Moore’s candidacy since The Washington Post reported the allegations on Thursday.
Asked by a reporter whether he believed the allegations, McConnell responded: “I believe the women, yes.”
Although it is too late to remove Moore’s name from the ballot before the Dec. 12 special election, McConnell said he is exploring the option of a write-in campaign by Sen. Luther Strange, whom Moore defeated in the primary, or another Republican.
The Post reported Thursday that Leigh Corfman alleged that Moore initiated a sexual encounter with her when she was 14 and Moore was a 32-year-old assistant district attorney. Moore has denied the allegations and has vowed to continue his campaign.
A 7/23/13 Trump Tweet (screenshot in case they take it down):


Sunday, November 12, 2017

More Moore


Paul Gattis at AL.com:
A new Alabama Senate poll, released Sunday morning, gives Democrat Doug Jones his first lead over Republican Roy Moore.
The race, though, remains close.
Louisiana-based JMC Analytics conducted the poll after allegations of sexual misconduct by Moore were reported by The Washington Post.
The poll had Jones received 46 percent support in the poll to Moore's 42 percent. With a margin of error of 4 percent, however, the race is essentially a statistical tie.
The poll also had 9 percent of participants declaring themselves undecided.
It's the second poll since the allegations came out that reveals a loss of support for Moore. A Decision Desk HQ/Opinion Savvy poll released Friday had the race tied 46-46.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

They're, Their, and There

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's way with words.  He and his underlings have a good deal of work to do.

I offer stylistic tips to my students, including a list of "dumbass mistakes."

Trump makes such mistakes in his tweets.

They're/There/Their
Image result for trump "their was afghanistan"

Capital/Capitol
Council/Counsel

Image result for trump yates council

Heel/Heal

Image result for heeling fast trump

Lose/Loose