On the Anniversary of the Invasion of Poland

In Defying the Odds, we discuss foreign policy issues in the 2016 campaign. Our update takes the story through the 2018 election.

On September 1, 1939, Germany invaded Poland from the west.  Sixteen days later, the Soviet Union invaded from the east.

W.H. Auden:

I sit in one of the dives
On Fifty-second Street
Uncertain and afraid
As the clever hopes expire
Of a low dishonest decade:
Waves of anger and fear
Circulate over the bright
And darkened lands of the earth,
Obsessing our private lives;
The unmentionable odour of death
Offends the September night.

9/1/19 Press Gaggle:

Q Mr. President, do you have a message for Poland —

THE PRESIDENT: Yeah.

Q — on the 80th anniversary of the Second World War? What (inaudible)?

THE PRESIDENT: I do have a great message for Poland. And we have Mike Pence, our Vice President, is just about landing right now. And he is representing me. I look forward to being there soon.

But I just want to congratulate Poland. It’s a great country with great people. We also have many Polish people in our country; it could be 8 million. We love our Polish friends. And I will be there soon.

Romney's Trip

Mitt Romney offended Brits by saying that they might not be ready to handle the Olympics.  In Israel, he pleased supporters of Netanyahu but angered Palestinians.  The Polish leg of the trip went best:  he got an endorsement of sorts from Lech Walesa.  Overall, though, it was not exactly a victory tour.  Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake write:

It’s hard to imagine that Romney did himself any favors in answering lingering questions about his foreign policy acumen during this trip.

On the other hand, there is an argument to be made that nothing — literally, nothing — other than than the economy at home matters to undecided voters. And that goes double for foreign policy, which is a bottom-of-mind issue (is that a thing?) for most voters.

In a late May Washington Post-ABC News poll, 1 — yes, one — percent of people said that foreign policy was the most important issue of the 2012 campaign. One!

Moreover, the trip happened when Americans were focusing far more on the Olympics than politics.

Romney's Journey

By going overseas, Mitt Romney is trying to build up his credibility on foreign policy. The trip does draw attention away from the Bain issue, but that isn’t the motive, since it has been in the works for a long time. 

The visit to the United Kingdom will remind people of Romney’s leadership of the 2002 Winter Olympics.  That was his highest-profile involvement in international affairs to date, but not his only one.  He did his Mormon mission in France, and became conversant in French.  And during his business career, he did extensive work overseas.

It is natural for Romney to go to Israel. He has been friends with Prime Minister Netanyahu for 36 years. Although Netanyahu is nominally impartial in American elections, he has close ties to Republicans, and a frosty relationship with the incumbent. President Obama will surely carry a majority of the Jewish vote in November, but if Romney can just slightly improve the GOP percentage in this segment of the electorate, he might have a better chance of carrying Florida.

The trip to Poland has electoral significance. There are large clusters of Polish Americans in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two large states that Romney might be able to carry in November. 

There was talk of a German leg to the trip, but its absence will not hurt Romney.  True, more non-Hispanic Americans trace their ancestry to Germany than to any other country.  But in most cases, these German roots go back more than a century, and the two world wars led many German Americans to downplay their heritage. Therefore there is no longer any significant “German American” vote.