The International Decline of the Progressive Left

In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020.   Our next book continues the analysis into 2024.

 

Bertrand Benoit, David Luhnow and Vipal Monga at WSJ:

This past year showed that the progressive politics that dominated most industrialized countries over the past two decades or more is shifting to the right, fueled by working-class anxieties over the economy and immigration, and growing fatigue with issues from climate change to identity politics.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House is the most dramatic and important example—but it is far from the only one.

Across Europe, where economic growth has largely stalled, conservatives and populist right-wing parties are making unprecedented gains. Three-quarters of governments in the European Union are either led by a right-of-center party or are ruled by a coalition that includes at least one.

The shift is set to continue. Canada appears poised to kick out a deeply unpopular progressive prime minister and Germany is expected to dump its center-left government. Polls show the top two parties in Germany represent the center-right and the far-right.

...

In country after country, many working-class voters—especially those outside the biggest cities—are signaling the same thing: They mistrust the establishment—from academics to bankers to traditional politicians—and feel these elites are out of touch and don’t care about people like them.

Years of increased migration and trade, coupled with low economic growth, have led to a backlash and a rise in nationalism, where people want more of a sense of control, political analysts say. The rise of social media has exacerbated divisions and led to an upsurge in antiestablishment parties.

“It’s a broad shift that goes across countries,” said Ruy Teixeira, a lifelong Democrat who now works for the center-right American Enterprise Institute think tank. “Working-class people are just pissed off—about immigration, about all the culture war stuff, and the relatively poor economic performance that has shaped the working-class experience in the 21st century.”

Trump Retweets British Fascist

In  Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's character.

During the campaign, Trump retweeted neo-Nazis.  He's at it again.

From Haaretz:

U.S. President Donald Trump retweeted three anti-Muslim videos purportedly showing violence by Muslim migrants. The videos were originally posted by Jayda Fransen, the deputy leader of the Britain first movement.

The first retweet was a video titled, "Muslim migrant beating up a Dutch boy on crutches," while the second, "Muslim Destroys a Statue of Virgin Mary!," and the third and most gruesome, "Islamist mob pushes teenage boy off roof and beats him to death!"

Britain first is a far-right ultranationalism group which purports to document Muslim activity across Britain and Europe. The group formed in 2011 as an offshoot of the far-right, fascist party - British National Party. The group's founder Paul Golding is a convicted felon and was reportedly previously a member of the neo-Nazi National Front.

VIDEO: Muslim migrant beats up Dutch boy on crutches! pic.twitter.com/11LgbfFJDq

— Jayda Fransen (@JaydaBF) November 28, 2017

VIDEO: Muslim Destroys a Statue of Virgin Mary! pic.twitter.com/qhkrfQrtjV

— Jayda Fransen (@JaydaBF) November 29, 2017

VIDEO: Islamist mob pushes teenage boy off roof and beats him to death! pic.twitter.com/XxtlxNNSiP

— Jayda Fransen (@JaydaBF) November 29, 2017

Outsiders in the UK and US

At The Washington Post, Dan Balz compares the Sanders surge to the rise of far-left British Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn.  He notes that the Clintons were close to the now-reviled Tony Blair, comparing their New Democrat posture with Blair's New Labour.

The direct parallels between what has just happened in Britain and what is happening here in the United States are limited. Labour was driven from power five years ago and suffered an even more humiliating defeat in May. President Obama’s two election victories have kept Democrats in power in the White House.

Although Democrats have suffered humiliating defeats in two midterm elections in that time, they have not been faced with the kind of back-to-basic question about their philosophy and policies that Miliband’s defeat and resignation triggered there. And yet, Clinton has found herself struggling with many of the same forces on the left that just swept aside the Labour Party establishment.

Sanders, like Corbyn, has tapped into the economic unrest that remains in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, manifested in debate about income and wealth inequality and fed by resentment that the bankers whose actions helped trigger the collapse have paid no significant penalty, which average families have.

Clinton has tried to adapt. She is not clinging to New Democrat rhetoric, nor articulating, as Blair did, a defense of center-ground politics. Her rhetoric has tried to echo the times. Her policies have shifted less, certainly less than those Sanders advocates.

The public mood also has put a greater premium on authenticity, rather than skilled and practiced policies. Sanders is old school, rumpled and unpolished, out of the same mold as Corbyn, characteristics that are appealing to many people sick of packaged politicians. Clinton has yet to find this voice.

Though Balz does not raise the point, one might also compare and contrast the Trump surge and UKIP (though the latter fizzled out when it came time to vote). 

Conservatives are angry about what Obama has tried to do. Liberals are angry about what he has failed to do.

Romney's Trip

Mitt Romney offended Brits by saying that they might not be ready to handle the Olympics.  In Israel, he pleased supporters of Netanyahu but angered Palestinians.  The Polish leg of the trip went best:  he got an endorsement of sorts from Lech Walesa.  Overall, though, it was not exactly a victory tour.  Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake write:

It’s hard to imagine that Romney did himself any favors in answering lingering questions about his foreign policy acumen during this trip.

On the other hand, there is an argument to be made that nothing — literally, nothing — other than than the economy at home matters to undecided voters. And that goes double for foreign policy, which is a bottom-of-mind issue (is that a thing?) for most voters.

In a late May Washington Post-ABC News poll, 1 — yes, one — percent of people said that foreign policy was the most important issue of the 2012 campaign. One!

Moreover, the trip happened when Americans were focusing far more on the Olympics than politics.

Romney's Journey

By going overseas, Mitt Romney is trying to build up his credibility on foreign policy. The trip does draw attention away from the Bain issue, but that isn’t the motive, since it has been in the works for a long time. 

The visit to the United Kingdom will remind people of Romney’s leadership of the 2002 Winter Olympics.  That was his highest-profile involvement in international affairs to date, but not his only one.  He did his Mormon mission in France, and became conversant in French.  And during his business career, he did extensive work overseas.

It is natural for Romney to go to Israel. He has been friends with Prime Minister Netanyahu for 36 years. Although Netanyahu is nominally impartial in American elections, he has close ties to Republicans, and a frosty relationship with the incumbent. President Obama will surely carry a majority of the Jewish vote in November, but if Romney can just slightly improve the GOP percentage in this segment of the electorate, he might have a better chance of carrying Florida.

The trip to Poland has electoral significance. There are large clusters of Polish Americans in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two large states that Romney might be able to carry in November. 

There was talk of a German leg to the trip, but its absence will not hurt Romney.  True, more non-Hispanic Americans trace their ancestry to Germany than to any other country.  But in most cases, these German roots go back more than a century, and the two world wars led many German Americans to downplay their heritage. Therefore there is no longer any significant “German American” vote.

Filling Gaps in the White House Website, Part 12

An interview with Adam Boulton of Britain's Sky News:

AB: You mention colonialism. It's been alleged that you don't like the Brits because what they did to your grandfather.
OBAMA: Yeah, I've always been curious about this allegation. I love the Brits! And I think I've shown my affection every time I've travelled there but yeah, I think this is an example of Fleet Street trying to sell newspapers.
AB: But also, I mean, there must be some resentment in countries that were --
OBAMA: Well, no, I mean look, the notion that somehow I would judge countries at this point based on what happened a hundred years ago is not something that would make much sense.