Crossroads GPS "Excuses"

The New York Times reports on the politics of the unemployment rate:

Economists have scaled back their expectations for the rest of the year and are now forecasting continued sluggishness.

“This economy has no forward momentum and little help from monetary or fiscal policy,” said Kathy Bostjancic, director of macroeconomic analysis for the Conference Board. “As if that were not enough, ill winds are blowing in from both a contracting Europe and slowing growth in emerging markets.”

Friday’s report also put a chill on financial markets, sending stocks sharply lower on both sides of the Atlantic.

At a campaign stop in Poland, Ohio, on Friday, Mr. Obama urged voters to take the long view, and to be mindful of the economic state he inherited.

“I want to get back to a time when middle-class families and those working to get into the middle class have some basic security,” he said. “We’ve got to deal with what’s been happening over the last decade, the last 15 years.”

On the same day, Crossroads GPS anticipated the president's reaction with a $25 million ad buy:

Bad Numbers for POTUS, Early July Edition

The Wall Street Journal reports:

U.S. job growth barely picked up in June, the latest sign that economic growth has slowed.
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 80,000 last month, the Labor Department said Friday. The politically important unemployment rate, obtained by a separate survey of U.S. households, was unchanged at 8.2%.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a gain of 100,000 in payrolls and the steady June jobless rate.

...

Even with June's numbers coming in stronger than the previous two months, the pace of job creation remains well below figures at the start of the year—the economy added an average of 226,000 jobs a month in the first quarter, versus only 75,000 in the second quarter.

Expect Republicans to quote former President Clinton.  On September 15, 2010, the Toledo Blade reported on what he said at Cuyahoga Community College the previous day:

"The Democrats are saying something like this: 'We found a big hole that we did not dig. We didn't get it filled in 21 months, but at least we quit digging," Mr. Clinton said. "Give us two more years. If it doesn't work, vote us out.'"

Other numbers indicate additional economic clouds. Gallup reports:

At $70, Americans' average daily spending in June was consistent with recent monthly spending levels, and roughly matched June spending in 2010 and 2011. While this represents a more confident consumer than Gallup found in June 2009, when daily spending averaged $61, spending remains suppressed compared with the $104 average in June 2008. [emphasis added]

And renewed emphasis on health care may not help perceptions of the president's economic performance, as Gallup also reports:

Americans are more likely to say the 2010 healthcare law upheld by the Supreme Court last week will hurt the national economy (46%) rather than help it (37%), while 18% say they don't know or that it will have no effect.

Super PACs Against Romney

Jim Geraghty at National Review Online:

According to Federal Election Commission data filed from January 2011 through July 3, super PACs and all groups making “independent expenditures” in the political arena have spent $35.3 million in opposition to Romney, and only $9 million in opposition to Obama. Rove’s American Crossroads, for example, has spent $3.1 million this cycle. But only $158,126.17 of that has been spent in efforts opposing President Obama, and a separate $7,500 has been spent on Web ads supporting Mitt Romney. For perspective, the group spent $358,202.98 in mid-June in just one expenditure on “TV/Media Purchases” opposing Democratic Senate candidate Tim Kaine in Virginia, and then spent the same sum a week later in the same race. 

What’s more, the advertising and other efforts by Obama’s allies have been relentlessly negative. Every expenditure by every independent group must be filed with the FEC (usually within a matter of days) and must be classified as in support of or in opposition to a particular candidate. The amounts range from millions of dollars for advertising campaigns to $12.50 for “staff time” spent on a press release or e-mail to support or oppose a candidate. Overall, in addition to the $35.3 million and $9 million mentioned above, independent groups have spent $7.7 million on ads and efforts classified as in support of Romney, while they spent only $961,854.62 in support of Obama.

A couple of caveats.  First, the data do not include issue advocacy ads by 501(c)(4) groups such as Crossroads GPS. Second, although most of the American Crossroads ads are for Senate races, these ads frequently attack Democrats for supporting Obama.

Tea Party Frosh

Susan Davis writes at USA Today:

The overwhelming majority of the 87 Republican lawmakers who swept into Congress in 2010 and took control of the U.S. House are likely to be re-elected this year, according to strategists and an analysis of redistricting changes.

That wave — fueled in large part by Tea Party momentum and campaign pledges of fiscal conservatism — is unlikely to recede in 2012 far enough to give Democrats the opportunity to regain control of the chamber.

"A lot of the freshmen are in good shape," said David Wasserman, an election analyst for the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

...

Ten freshman lawmakers are running in districts that are significantly more Republican by 5 or more points because of redistricting. The clearest winner is Rep. Blake Farenthold, R-Texas, who defeated Democratic incumbent Solomon Ortiz in 2010 by fewer than 800 votes but is running in a district that election forecasters view as out of reach for Democrats.

Just three freshman GOP lawmakers, Illinois Reps. Joe Walsh and Robert Dold and New York's Ann Marie Buerkle, are running for re-election in districts where Democrats are clear favorites.

Walsh said he is "as confident as I can be" in his race against Democrat Tammy Duckworth, in which he continues to embrace the Tea Party ethos. "I would never run from that. I still firmly believe the Tea Party movement in this country is the silent majority," he said.

Walsh recently illustrated one reason why he is not a favorite for reelection. WLS-TV reports:

Republican Congressman Joe Walsh is in hot water with veterans groups after he slammed his opponent, Democrat Tammy Duckworth, claiming the Iraq war veteran and double amputee talks too much about her military service.

His comment at a recent town hall meeting has now been posted on YouTube.

Walsh is defending what he said. "Of course, Tammy Duckworth is a hero," Walsh writes in a statement. "Her service demands our thanks and our respect but not our vote."

A spokesperson for Duckworth also released a statement. It reads in part, "Congressman Walsh's comments insult those who sacrificed to make this country free. Tammy is proud of her over 20 years of service with the army.

Economic Clouds

The Hill reports:

Weak June manufacturing numbers released Monday intensified concern about the fragility of the economic recovery and turned election-watchers’ attention toward unemployment numbers due out at the end of this week.

The reports, just four months before voters cast their ballots in the presidential election, come amid a wave of bad news on the global economy, which is seen by both the White House and President Obama’s critics as the most potent threat to his chances of securing a second term in office.

From Gallup:

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index averaged -22 in June, down from -17 in May and reverting to the -22 recorded in February. Still, the index remains near the upper boundary of confidence reached since the start of 2008, and is substantially improved over the worst negative periods seen since that time.

Both components of the index -- Americans' ratings of current economic conditions and their perceptions of whether the economy is getting better or getting worse -- declined slightly in June. The -18 economic outlook rating reflects 38% of Americans saying the economy is improving and 56% saying it is getting worse. At the same time, 15% of Americans say the economy is in excellent or good shape, while 41% consider it poor, resulting in a -26 current conditions rating.

Chris Stirewalt sums up:

Obama has frequently complained of the “headwinds” previously described in order to explain to voters why they should not blame him for the sad state of things in the economy. It is understandable that he would focus on that rather than the domestic problems dragging down the economy. Blaming Europe and China is better for the incumbent than saying, “We’re kind of a mess.”

The Democratic line for the year remains what it was in 2010: Things are bad, but they would have been worse without the massive interventions conceived by the Obama Democrats. This is not a terrible line, but it is a tough sell. Moderate, independent voters are a fickle lot with whom the standing question is “what have you done for me lately.”

The hope on the blue team after their 2010 catastrophe was that the economy would have been enough revived by 2012 to make their argument more convincing. But that’s not going to happen.

An Appeal from Air Force One

Lloyd Grove reports at The Daily Beast:

President Obama sounded weary and maybe a tad worried late Friday during a rambling conference call with campaign donors whom he repeatedly begged to send money—and send it now.

“The majority on this call maxed out to my campaign last time. I really need you to do the same this time,” the president said in a highly unusual (and presumably legal) fundraising pitch from Air Force One on his way back to Washington from Colorado Springs, where he’d been assessing the terrible damage caused by uncontained wildfires. A special phone on the government aircraft is dedicated to political calls that are paid for by the campaign.

“I’m asking you to meet or exceed what you did in 2008,” the presidential pitchman continued, speaking to donors who were invited to dial in based on their contributions during the last election. “Because we’re going to have to deal with these super PACs in a serious way. And if we don’t, frankly I think the political [scene] is going to be changed permanently. Because the special interests that are financing my opponent’s campaign are just going to consolidate themselves. They’re gonna run Congress and the White House.”

The president’s 18-minute pleading—a recording of which was provided to The Daily Beast by an Obama contributor—hardly sounded like a man doing a victory lap after Thursday’s Supreme Court ruling upholding Obamacare, as the Affordable Care Act has come to be known. Or, for that matter, like a candidate who has been beating his Republican opponent in recent polls of key battleground states.

Bain Attacks

The New York Times reports:

Propelled by a torrent of blistering television advertisements, President Obama is successfully invoking Mitt Romney’s career at Bain Capital to raise questions about his commitment to the middle class, strategists in both parties say, as the candidates engage in a critical summer duel to set the terms for this fall.

Despite doubts among some Democrats about the wisdom of attacking Mr. Romney’s business career, Obama commercials painting him as a ruthless executive who pursued profits at the expense of jobs are starting to make an impact on some undecided voters, according to strategists from both sides, who differ on whether they are causing any substantial damage.

Factcheck.org reports:

 Obama accuses Romney in a series of TV ads of being a “corporate raider” who “shipped jobs to China and Mexico,” asking if voters want to elect an “outsourcer in chief.” But some of the claims in the ads are untrue, and others are thinly supported.

Bain Capital, the venture capital firm founded by Romney in 1984, is the focus of the Obama campaign’s attacks. There is no question that Bain invested in some companies that helped other companies outsource work and that some of that work went overseas. That was the core business for Modus Media and SMTC Corp. — two outsource companies featured in a June 21 article in the Washington Post that has been the basis of recent Obama TV ads. Bain also invested in U.S.-based companies that sold goods manufactured here and abroad, and some of those companies closed U.S. facilities and eliminated U.S. jobs.

But after reviewing numerous corporate filings with the Securities and Exchange
Commission, contemporary news accounts, company histories and press releases, and the
evidence offered by both the Obama and Romney campaigns, we found no evidence to support the claim that Romney — while he was still running Bain Capital — shipped American jobs overseas.

• One TV ad, called “Come and Go,” claims that Romney “shipped jobs to China and Mexico.” But two examples cited by the Obama campaign occurred after Romney left Bain. There’s no clear evidence that a third company shipped jobs to China under Romney.

• A second ad called “Revealed” mocks Romney’s tough talk about cracking down on China’s trade practices by saying “all he’s ever done is send them our jobs” and citing the Washington Post article. But the newspaper article contained no examples of U.S. jobs being shipped to China while Romney was working at Bain.

• The “Come and Go” ad casts Romney as a “corporate raider,” but that term, loaded with negative connotations, is simply inaccurate. Bain didn’t engage in hostile takeovers when Romney was at the helm.

• That ad also repeats the claim that as governor of Massachusetts, Romney was “outsourcing state jobs to India.” But it wasn’t the state that outsourced contracts. Rather, Romney vetoed a measure that would have prevented the state from doing business with a state contractor that was locating state customer-service calls in India.