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Tuesday, February 8, 2022

Alabama Redistricting

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.   

Robert Barnes at WP:
A divided Supreme Court on Monday restored an Alabama congressional map that creates only one district favorable to a Black candidate, and put on hold a lower court’s order that said a second district was necessary to comply with the Voting Rights Act.

Over the objections of Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and the court’s three liberals, its five most consistently conservative justices halted a decision last month by three federal judges. The panel threw out Alabama’s new congressional map, which included only one congressional district with a majority of Black voters even though they make up more than a quarter of the state’s population.

The court’s ruling was a blow to voting rights advocates and Democrats after a series of redistricting wins over the past several weeks. It means the 2022 congressional elections in Alabama will take place under a map drawn by the state’s Republican leaders.

But it also signaled that the court’s more conservative majority is suspicious of a Voting Rights Act precedent that Alabama said requires legislatures to prioritize race over traditional redistricting techniques.

The majority — Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel A. Alito Jr., Neil M. Gorsuch, Brett M. Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett — did not provide a reason for stopping the lower court’s decision, which is common when the Supreme Court considers an emergency petition. But Kavanaugh, joined by Alito, wrote separately to say the changes ordered by the lower court came too close to qualifying and primaries for the fall election and could create “chaos.”

Monday, February 7, 2022

Green Shoots for Congressional Democrats?

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.   

Politico Playbook reports some reasons to doubt a 2022 GOP wave.
— Redistricting: Catastrophic losses from partisan gerrymandering that many Democrats feared have not materialized. Despite decrying the process and pushing reform in Congress, Democrats did not unilaterally disarm. The hyper-aggressive map recently released by New York Democrats made it clear that the party may come out ahead in the process nationally. “There aren’t many breaks Dems *haven’t* caught in redistricting so far,” Dave Wasserman recently noted.

— The economy: Inflation is still a top priority for voters and the main obstacle to Biden receiving higher marks on his handling of the economy. But unemployment is very low, growth is strong, and the latest jobs report was phenomenal. If inflation data released this Thursday shows a dip, Biden might be able to argue that the peak has been reached and the decline many economists predict this year is beginning.

— The pandemic: The Omicron wave has crested and a return to relative normalcy could be in sight.

— The GOP: As we outlined in detail Saturday, the Republican Party’s focus on 2020, Jan. 6 and DONALD TRUMP is creating major headwinds.

DOUG SOSNIK of Brunswick Group argues that “there would need to be a series of developments in order for the Democrats to defy history”:

  1. The virus needs to be contained with the country returning to a new normal.
  2. Inflation needs to start going down by summer.
  3. The economy and the stock market need to maintain steady growth, particularly as interest rates begin to rise.
  4. The supply chain needs to return to normal.
  5. There is not a global crisis.
  6. Biden’s job approval rating needs to be in the high 40s by summer.
  7. Republicans need to nominate unelectable general-election candidates and run lousy campaigns. They are capable of this and have done this in recent past cycles, choosing far-right candidates such as TODD AKIN or CHRISTINE O’DONNELL who ended up losing in the general election.
  8. Trump and Republicans need to keep talking about the 2020 election.

Sunday, February 6, 2022

Redistricting: Good for Dems, Bad for Competition

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.   







Reid Epstein and  Nick Corasaniti at NYT:

New York’s new map doesn’t just set Democrats up to win more seats, it also eliminates competitive districts. In 2020, there were four districts where Mr. Biden and former President Donald J. Trump were within five percentage points. There are none in the new map. Even the reconfigured district that stretches from Republican-dominated Staten Island to Democratic neighborhoods in Brooklyn is now, at least on paper, friendly territory for Democrats.
...

“The parties are contributing to more and more single-party districts and taking the voters out of the equation,” said former Representative Tom Davis, who led the House Republicans’ campaign arm during the 2001 redistricting cycle. “November becomes a constitutional formality.”
...

The phenomenon of parties using redistricting to gain an edge is as old as the republic itself, but it has escalated in recent decades with more sophisticated technology and more detailed data about voter behavior. Americans with similar political views have clustered in distinct areas — Republicans in rural and exurban areas, Democrats in cities and inner suburbs. It’s a pattern that can make it difficult to draw cohesive, competitive districts.

Saturday, February 5, 2022

"Legitimate Political Discourse"


Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie. 

Jonathan Weisman and Reid J. Epstein at NYT:
The Republican Party on Friday officially declared the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol and events that led to it “legitimate political discourse,” and rebuked two lawmakers in the party who have been most outspoken in condemning the deadly riot and the role of Donald J. Trump in spreading the election lies that fueled it.

The Republican National Committee’s voice vote to censure Representatives Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois at its winter meeting in Salt Lake City culminated more than a year of vacillation, which started with party leaders condemning the Capitol attack and Mr. Trump’s conduct, then shifted to downplaying and denying it.

On Friday, the party went further in a resolution slamming Ms. Cheney and Mr. Kinzinger for taking part in the House investigation of the assault, saying they were participating in “persecution of ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate political discourse.”

After the vote, party leaders rushed to clarify that language, saying it was never meant to apply to rioters who violently stormed the Capitol in Mr. Trump’s name.

“Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger crossed a line,” Ronna McDaniel, the Republican National Committee chairwoman, said in a statement. “They chose to join Nancy Pelosi in a Democrat-led persecution of ordinary citizens who engaged in legitimate political discourse that had nothing to do with violence at the Capitol.”

But the censure, which was carefully negotiated in private among party members, made no such distinction, nor is the House committee investigating the attack examining any normal political debate. It was the latest and most forceful effort by the Republican Party to minimize what happened and the broader attempt by Mr. Trump and his allies to invalidate the results of the 2020 election. In approving it and opting to punish two of its own, Republicans seemed to embrace a position that many of them have only hinted at: that the assault and the actions that preceded it were acceptable.


 

Friday, February 4, 2022

The New GOP

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie. 

 At Axios, Jonathan Swan and Lachlan Markay write that Trump changed the GOP power structure.  He revealed that old organizations had little sway with primary voters.  New organizations do.

Who had the power:

Who has power now:
  • Donald Trump
  • Tucker Carlson
  • Family and former aides to Trump
  • Fox News
  • Club for Growth
  • Daily Wire
  • Breitbart News
  • Online influencers including Candace Owens, Ben Shapiro, Dan Bongino, Joe Rogan, Jack Posobiec, Charlie Kirk and Marjorie Taylor-Greene.
  • Steve Bannon
  • Susan B. Anthony List

Thursday, February 3, 2022

The Honorable Elizabeth Cheney

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie.  And we now know how close he came to subverting the Constitution.  

Jon Shields at NYT writes that Trump appeals to Americans who live in honor cultures.

Ms. Cheney, though, is fighting on behalf of her own code of honor. Hers is driven by a fidelity to what the Yale political theorist Steven Smith calls “enlightened patriotism,” one that insists on “loyalty to a particular constitutional form that we call liberal democracy or constitutional democracy.”

Such patriotism has always been in tension with the motto “my country, right or wrong,” because it is beholden to abstract, creedal principles, such as equality, individualism and the rule of law. And because these principles are open to interpretation, patriotism in the United States has long had a distinctly critical, questioning character. Mr. Smith even suggests that it birthed the nation, since the American revolutionaries regarded themselves as the true British patriots, not traitors.

Not unlike those British subjects facing a subversive king, Ms. Cheney had no real choice when faced with Mr. Trump’s assault on our constitutional order. To Ms. Cheney — and her Republican supporters in Wyoming — it would have been shameful to remain loyal to Mr. Trump. This is why, on the first anniversary of the Capitol invasion, she admonished on Twitter, “Anyone who denies the truth of what happened on January 6th ought to be ashamed of themselves.”

Beneath the surface of their honor feud lurk clashing understandings of political ambition. Unlike Mr. Trump, Ms. Cheney is seeking the esteem of future generations by doing what’s in the public interest even if she is cast out of office for doing so. Ms. Cheney told a Wyoming paper that just moments before her fellow Republicans pushed her out of House leadership, she warned them “that history was watching.”

Mr. Trump, meanwhile, is so loyal to his narrow code that he lacks even the theory of mind to understand Ms. Cheney’s ambition. For him, losing any contest is always dishonorable because it tarnishes his reputation as a strongman. Hence, his enduring fixation with ratings, polling and the “stolen” 2020 election. It’s also why he asked Marine Gen. John F. Kelly, “I don’t get it. What was in it for them?” as they stood over the graves at Arlington National Cemetery, according to reporting in The Atlantic.


Wednesday, February 2, 2022

Vote Fraud Is Rare in Ohio

 

Our book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie.  Voter fraud is extremely rare.

From Ohio's Republican Secretary of State:

Today, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose transmitted 62 referrals of potential election fraud to Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost or local county prosecutors for further investigation and potential prosecution. Of these, 31 are non-citizens who registered to vote but did not cast a ballot. The other 31 may have cast a ballot in the 2020 general election or illegally in an earlier election.

Included in the 31 potentially illegally cast ballots are 27 that were cast in the 2020 general election. Of the record-breaking nearly 6 million votes cast in that election, the 27 votes account for 0.0005 percent of the total.

“Here are the facts: Ohio smashed voter turnout records in 2020 while providing Ohioans a secure election,” said LaRose. “Our state is proof positive you don’t have to choose between secure or convenient elections -- we have both. In Ohio, easy to vote and hard to cheat aren’t mutually exclusive. At the end of the day, these referrals are all about accountability. Lawbreakers should know we take election security seriously, and we won’t tolerate even one unlawful vote to go unpunished on my watch.”

The referred cases are divided into three different areas: 1) non-citizen voter registration or voting; 2) voting on behalf of the deceased; or 3) double voting in Ohio.