Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.
Politico Playbook reports some reasons to doubt a 2022 GOP wave.
— Redistricting: Catastrophic losses from partisan gerrymandering that many Democrats feared have not materialized. Despite decrying the process and pushing reform in Congress, Democrats did not unilaterally disarm. The hyper-aggressive map recently released by New York Democrats made it clear that the party may come out ahead in the process nationally. “There aren’t many breaks Dems *haven’t* caught in redistricting so far,” Dave Wasserman recently noted.
— The economy: Inflation is still a top priority for voters and the main obstacle to Biden receiving higher marks on his handling of the economy. But unemployment is very low, growth is strong, and the latest jobs report was phenomenal. If inflation data released this Thursday shows a dip, Biden might be able to argue that the peak has been reached and the decline many economists predict this year is beginning.
— The pandemic: The Omicron wave has crested and a return to relative normalcy could be in sight.
— The GOP: As we outlined in detail Saturday, the Republican Party’s focus on 2020, Jan. 6 and DONALD TRUMP is creating major headwinds.
DOUG SOSNIK of Brunswick Group argues that “there would need to be a series of developments in order for the Democrats to defy history”:
- The virus needs to be contained with the country returning to a new normal.
- Inflation needs to start going down by summer.
- The economy and the stock market need to maintain steady growth, particularly as interest rates begin to rise.
- The supply chain needs to return to normal.
- There is not a global crisis.
- Biden’s job approval rating needs to be in the high 40s by summer.
- Republicans need to nominate unelectable general-election candidates and run lousy campaigns. They are capable of this and have done this in recent past cycles, choosing far-right candidates such as TODD AKIN or CHRISTINE O’DONNELL who ended up losing in the general election.
- Trump and Republicans need to keep talking about the 2020 election.