Elaine Kamarck and William A. Galston at Brookings:
Turnout in midterm elections is always lower than in presidential contests, but the party that wins the midterms enjoys the smallest falloff from the previous presidential election. Throughout 2026, Democrats enjoyed a substantial lead in polls measuring the likelihood of voting, and the actual votes reflected this edge. As election season progressed, expectations increased that turnout would be high. As of the end of October, early voting totals had surpassed the totals seen in 2018 and 2022. The all-time highs for the 21st century midterms were 2018 (53.4%), when Democrats took over the House of Representatives, and 2022 (52.2%) when Republicans took over the House.
Although national turnout numbers are not yet available, the results from three large red states are suggestive. Compared to the 2024 presidential election, votes cast for Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott fell 30% from President Trump’s total while his challenger, Democrat Gina Hinojosa, exceeded Kamala Harris’ vote by 8%.1 Republican Byron Donalds fell short of Trump’s total by 32%, while Democrat David Jolly finished 14% behind Harris. And in Ohio, Democrat Amy Action received 5% fewer votes than Harris while Vivek Ramaswamy’s total fell short of Trump’s by 36%. Meanwhile, only 6% of Republicans crossed over to support Democrats in races for the House of Representatives. Discontented Republicans didn’t abandon their party in 2026; they stayed home, opening the door for highly motivated Democrats to score massive gains.
