Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
This was an absolute disaster for Republicans. There’s no mincing words, rationalizing, second-guessing, or beating around the bush: However bad you thought that last night could be for Republicans, it was worse. It’s the worst election for a party at least since 1974. Republicans have lost seven Senate seats, with Alaska and Mississippi (!!!!) hanging in the balance. Kansas elected its first Democratic Senator since 1932. South Carolina elected a Democrat to the Senate. Texas didn’t just elect a Democrat statewide for the first time since 1994; the entire Republican statewide slate lost (a shift that is likely to hold somewhat into 2028).
In the U.S. House, Democrats look poised to win around 260 seats, their largest House majority since 1990. The bloodshed was widespread. In North Carolina, Tim Moore has likely lost to Lakesha Womack, who had raised $59,000 by mid-October and had $5,000 in cash on hand. Cyril Jefferson seems to have defeated Addison McDowell in the 6ᵗʰ district. He raised $250,000 and had $11,000 on hand. In Tennessee, Scott DesJarlais is losing to Victoria Broderick, who raised $84,000 and had $8,000 on hand. The closest thing I can think of is in 1994, when Mike Synar lost to Virgil Cooper, a retired school principal who campaigned by placing business cards under the windshield wipers of cars. That was a primary. Republicans lost multiple governorships, gave up several governing trifectas, and lost dozens of statewide races. It’s just an utter catastrophe for the party, top-to-bottom.
It’s the worst popular vote loss in decades. Right now, Republicans are losing the House popular vote by almost 12 points. If this holds, and the deficit seems likely to grow rather than shrink, it’ll be the worst popular vote loss for a party in Congress since 1982, and possibly since 1976. Even that doesn’t tell the entire story, since the Republicans weren’t competitive in much of the South at that point.
