"Tax Reform" is Really Unpopular

In  Defying the Odds, we discuss the tax issue in the 2016 campaign.

As previous posts have noted, "tax reform" will be hard.  Most of the benefits would flow to the top twenty percent, in part because 44 percent of households pay no income tax at all.  Most lawmakers have no direct experience with comprehensive tax reform.  The current process is at least nine months behind the pace of the 1985-86 bill, which was a close-run thing even then.  Trump is unpopular, and so are major "reform" proposals.

Eric Levitz at New York:

Virtually no one in the United States believes that taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals should be cut. In one recent Gallup survey, just 9 percent of respondents said corporations paid too much in taxes, while 67 percent said they paid too little; for “upper income people,” those figures were 10 and 63, respectively. 

But even these numbers fail to convey the dearth of public demand for the Republican Party’s tax “reform” effort. Voters don’t merely lack enthusiasm for cutting taxes on the rich and powerful — most don’t even see a need for their taxes to be cut. In April, Gallup found 61 percent of Americans saying that their current income-tax burden is “fair” — the highest that figure has been at any point since 2009. Meanwhile, even those who believe that they deserve a tax cut don’t (generally) see such a measure as worth prioritizing: Last month, a Bloomberg poll found that less than 5 percent of Americans believe tax policy is the “most important issue facing the country” — less than half the percentage that picked climate change.

Trump, State Government, and Pardons

In  Defying the Odds, we discuss Russian involvement in the 2016 campaign.

James Madison in Federalist 51:

In the compound republic of America, the power surrendered by the people is first divided between two distinct governments, and then the portion allotted to each subdivided among distinct and separate departments. Hence a double security arises to the rights of the people. The different governments will control each other, at the same time that each will be controlled by itself.

Ari Melber and Meredith Mandell report at NBC:

While presidential pardons can halt the federal case, local prosecutors could then pursue any Americans suspected of aiding Russia’s election meddling. In fact, legal experts say presidential pardons could make that prospect more likely.

According to a new MSNBC legal analysis, federal pardons could open the door to local criminal investigations in several states.

The most likely places are New York, Virginia and Illinois, three states where there is evidence that election-related crimes occurred — though it is unclear if any Americans assisted with those Russian efforts.

Beyond the three main states, the legal arguments for potential criminal jurisdiction are even broader, extending to many of the 39 states that were subject to Russian hacking. 

Josh Dawsey at Politico:

Special counsel Robert Mueller’s team is working with New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman on its investigation into Paul Manafort and his financial transactions, according to several people familiar with the matter.

The cooperation is the latest indication that the federal probe into President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman is intensifying. It also could potentially provide Mueller with additional leverage to get Manafort to cooperate in the larger investigation into Trump’s campaign, as Trump does not have pardon power over state crimes.

Tax Reform -- Lotsa Luck

In  Defying the Odds, we discuss the tax issue n the 2016 campaign.

Republicans are hoping that tax reform will restore their flagging popularity, 

It won't.

For one thing, they need to appeal to struggling Americans, but most of the benefit of a tax bill will flow to the affluent. The top quintile accounts for more than three-quarters of federal income tax receipts.

Thanks in part to the Reagan tax reform, 44 percent of households -- mostly low-income -- owe no federal income tax.  Unless the proposal provides for refundable tax credits, therefore, a large fraction of the public will not benefit. (And conservatives on the Hill tend to oppose such credits.)

Last month, Al Hunt reported at Bloomberg:

[T]ake a look at the latest Bloomberg poll. It suggests that a tax law is likely to be as tough to pass as the health-care bill that disintegrated this week in the Senate, and which Trump was calling a piece of cake just five months ago. The poll and other reporting indicates that taxes are no longer a galvanizing political issue, even for Republican voters.

The survey, conducted July 8-12, shows that only 4 percent of Americans see taxes as the most important issue facing the country. By contrast, 35 percent said they considered health care to be the No. 1 issue. Concerns about jobs, terrorism and climate change also ranked far ahead of taxes. A slight majority predicted that Trump would fail to achieve his promise to reform the tax code.

"There's a fury in the electorate about not getting things done, but there's no consensus on how to get tax reform done," said Ann Selzer of the Des Moines, Iowa-based public-opinion firm Selzer & Company Inc., which conducted the poll.

None of the Bloomberg poll numbers are encouraging for the White House. By a margin of 49 percent to 42 percent, respondents said they don't think cutting corporate taxes will create more jobs.

The focus of any tax initiative, Trump vows, will be on middle-class tax cuts. That sounds politically appealing, but 70 percent of those polled -- including two-thirds of Republicans -- said they'd oppose tax cuts that would increase the federal deficit. Only 18 percent disagreed.

White Identity Politics

David Brooks at NYT:

[Since 2005, the GOP] has become the vehicle for white identity politics. In 2005 only six percent of Republicans felt that whites faced “a great deal” of discrimination, the same number of Democrats who felt this. By 2016, the percentage of Republicans who felt this had tripled.

Recent surveys suggest that roughly 47 percent of Republicans are what you might call conservative universalists and maybe 40 percent are what you might call conservative white identitarians. White universalists believe in conservative principles and think they apply to all people and their white identity is not particularly salient to them. White identitarians are conservative, but their white identity is quite important to them, sometimes even more important than their conservatism.

These white identitarians have taken the multicultural worldview taught in schools, universities and the culture and, rightly or wrongly, have applied it to themselves. As Marxism saw history through the lens of class conflict, multiculturalism sees history through the lens of racial conflict and group oppression.

According to a survey from the Public Religion Research Institute, for example, about 48 percent of Republicans believe there is “a lot of discrimination” against Christians in America and about 43 percent believe there is a lot of discrimination against whites.
I’d love to see more research on the relationship between white identity politics and simple racism. There’s clear overlap, but I suspect they’re not quite the same thing. Racism is about feeling others are inferior. White identitarianism is about feeling downtrodden and aggrieved yourself.

Russia, Sater, Proposed Trump Tower

In  Defying the Odds, we discuss Russian involvement in the 2016 campaign.

Carol D. Leonnig, Tom Hamburger and Rosalind S. Helderman report at WP:

While Donald Trump was running for president in late 2015 and early 2016, his company was pursuing a plan to develop a massive Trump Tower in Moscow, according to several people familiar with the proposal and new records reviewed by Trump Organization lawyers.

As part of the discussions, a Russian-born real estate developer urged Trump to come to Moscow to tout the proposal and suggested that he could get President Vladimir Putin to say “great things” about Trump, according to several people who have been briefed on his correspondence.

The developer, Felix Sater, predicted in a November 2015 email that he and Trump Organization leaders would soon be celebrating — both one of the biggest residential projects in real estate history and Donald Trump’s election as president, according to two of the people with knowledge of the exchange.

Sater wrote to Trump Organization Executive Vice President Michael Cohen “something to the effect of, ‘Can you believe two guys from Brooklyn are going to elect a president?’ ” said one person briefed on the email exchange. Sater emigrated from what was then the Soviet Union when he was 6 and grew up in Brooklyn.

The Pardoner's Tale

Philip Rucker and Ellen Nakashima at WP:

As Joseph Arpaio’s federal case headed toward trial this past spring, President Trump wanted to act to help the former Arizona county sheriff who had become a campaign-trail companion and a partner in their crusade against illegal immigration.

The president asked Attorney General Jeff Sessions whether it would be possible for the government to drop the criminal case against Arpaio, but was advised that would be inappropriate, according to three people with knowledge of the conversation.

After talking with Sessions, Trump decided to let the case go to trial, and if Arpaio was convicted, he could grant clemency.

So the president waited, all the while planning to issue a pardon if Arpaio was found in contempt of court for defying a federal judge’s order to stop detaining people merely because he suspected them of being undocumented immigrants. Trump was, in the words of one associate, “gung-ho about it.”

The Arpaio Pardon: Opinion and Reaction

Trump pardoned defeated Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio. A few days ago, the Arizona Republic reported:

Half of Arizonans surveyed over the weekend believe that President Donald Trump should not announce a pardon for former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio at a Tuesday rally, compared with 21 percent who said it would be a good move, according to a new poll.

Another 29 percent said they weren't sure or didn't know.

The poll results, released Monday morning, come amid speculation that Trump will use his Phoenix visit as an occasion to pardon the controversial lawman after his recent criminal-contempt conviction.

From Arizona's senior senator, John McCain:

 “No one is above the law and the individuals entrusted with the privilege of being sworn law officers should always seek to be beyond reproach in their commitment to fairly enforcing the laws they swore to uphold. Mr. Arpaio was found guilty of criminal contempt for continuing to illegally profile Latinos living in Arizona based on their perceived immigration status in violation of a judge’s orders. The President has the authority to make this pardon, but doing so at this time undermines his claim for the respect of rule of law as Mr. Arpaio has shown no remorse for his actions.”

Arpaio was convicted of defying court order to stop violating #4thAmendment. It's a pardon of a govt official who ignored Bill of Rights.

— Justin Amash (@justinamash) August 26, 2017

We've been covering Joe Arpaio for more than 20 years. Here's a couple of things you should know about him... 1/many

— PhoenixNewTimes (@phoenixnewtimes) August 26, 2017