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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Thursday, August 24, 2017

Trump and Independents

At RealClearPolitics, David Brady and Brett Parker note that Trump never had Dems, retains slightly-weakening support among Reps, and is losing independents.
Independents, on the other hand, have moved from a net positive number in January to a steadily increasing net negative approval rating. In June, the gap against Trump was in double digits and by early August it was over 20 points: 30 percent approve and 51 percent disapprove in the latest YouGov poll. It is not surprising that a polarizing figure like Trump draws the ire of Democrats and the support of his party; his present problem is that he has lost support among the Independents who ultimately gave him the presidency.
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The overall story for the first seven months of the Trump era is that the president has maintained his co-partisans’ approval, never had the Democrats’ approval, and has lost some support among Independents. Carefully monitoring future developments among Independents is critical – as long as there are fewer Republicans than Democrats in this country, Independents will remain absolutely essential to Republican electoral success. At the moment, they are less supportive of Trump than they were in January -- and may be poised to become even less supportive if the nation’s economic fortunes take a hit.