GOP Aims for State Legislative Gains

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.  

Zach Montellaro at Politico:

State legislative Republicans hope to build on their flip of Virginia’s state House last year — and a slate of GOP candidates running hard against President Joe Biden — to make more inroads in Democratic-held legislatures this fall, while defending their turf.

The Republican State Leadership Committee’s target list of legislative chambers, shared first with POLITICO, focuses first on defending majorities in familiar battleground states. Republicans have unified control of legislatures in nearly all of the presidential battlegrounds, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. But the margins are often small: Across the six chambers in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Republicans have a combined margin of just 24 seats.

While defending key chambers the GOP already has is the “main goal this cycle,” according to the RSLC’s memo accompanying its target list, the party is also emboldened by its 2021 successes in Virginia and narrowing Democratic majorities in New Jersey. Republicans also hope to press the attack in states like Colorado and Minnesota, along with chipping away at Democratic majorities in other blue strongholds with an eye on making further inroads later this decade.

“Voters are looking for a counterbalance,” Dee Duncan, the president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, said in an interview. “I think that’s what Republicans on the ballot are going to be this fall. I think there’s going to be places that we’re able to play in that we haven’t in the past, and I think we’ll be able to defend our places that we won.”

The RSLC’s legislative target list does not vary dramatically from that of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which laid out its battleground nearly a year ago to POLITICO. But Duncan argues that a year’s worth of new data, from the recent victories to Biden’s approval ratings nationally and in key states, puts Republicans in a good position to capitalize in increasingly nationalized legislative races.

GOP Flips on Ukraine

 Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses foreign influence and Trump's attack on democracy.  Russia helped Trump through 2020.  As Russia began its latest invasion of Ukraine, Trump lavished praise on Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. 

Jonathan Weisman at NYT:

In the final years of Donald J. Trump’s presidency, Republicans portrayed Ukraine as an Eastern European Wild West run by nefarious oligarchs and unlawful politicians, a bad actor that sought to tamper in American elections and channel millions of dollars to Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s son.

“We’re talking Ukraine,” thundered Representative Jim Jordan, Republican of Ohio, in 2019, describing the country as “one of the three most corrupt countries on the planet.” The setting was a hearing for Mr. Trump’s first impeachment, over his efforts to pressure Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, into digging up political dirt on Mr. Biden.

Now such voices are fading, as the bulk of the Republican Party tries to get on the right side of history amid a brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine. Republicans are among the most vociferous champions for the United States to amp up its military response, and are competing to issue the strongest expressions of solidarity with Ukraine’s leaders.

...

In January, as Russia continued to amass more troops near Ukraine’s borders, Republicans including Representatives Matt Rosendale of Montana, Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Paul Gosar of Arizona, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, and Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia weighed in to oppose the United States confronting Russia or to suggest that President Biden had malevolent intentions in his handling of the matter. So did the Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance and Donald Trump Jr.

...

Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, gave a lengthy speech on Monday at the Ronald Reagan President Library in California, trying to explain how the party of Reagan, with its aggressive stand against the Soviet Union, could be the same as the party of Trump, which stood by as a president sided with Russia’s autocratic president against the judgment of America’s intelligence community.

State Legislative Elections

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.  

Douglas Kronaizl at Ballotpedia:

The 2022 election cycle is the first midterm election of Joe Biden’s (D) presidency. Historically, the incumbent president’s party loses seats in state legislative elections. Here are a few historical facts.

• Since 1922, Democratic presidents have seen their party lose an average of 388 state legislative seats in their first midterm elections. Republican presidents have seen an average loss of 345.
• Two presidents in that time—Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) and George W. Bush (R)—saw their parties gain state legislative seats in the first midterm elections of their presidencies. In Roosevelt’s first midterm election in 1934 during the Great Depression, Democrats gained 94 state legislative seats. During Bush’s presidency, Republicans gained 129 seats in the 2002 midterms, the first after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
• Since 2010, Democrats have had a net gain of state legislative seats in two election cycles—2012 and 2018—while Republicans have had a net gain in three—2014, 2016, and 2020.
• Barack Obama (D) saw a net loss of 702 Democratic state legislative seats during his first midterm in 2010, the largest loss for any Democratic president since at least 1921.
• Donald Trump (R) saw a net loss of 349 Republican state legislative seats in 2018.

Currently, there are 3,271 Democratic state legislators (44%) and 4,016 Republicans (54%).

Unforced GOP Errors

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.

Steve Peoples and Brian Slodysko at AP:

As the prospect of a red wave grows, a series of Republican missteps including recruiting stumbles, weak fundraising and intense infighting is threatening the GOP’s path to the Senate majority.

Arizona’s Republican Gov. Doug Ducey dealt his party its latest setback late last week by announcing he would not challenge Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly this fall. His decision, which leaves no obvious front-runner in a crowded Republican primary, disappointed Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell and his allies who had spent months privately encouraging Ducey to run.

But the GOP’s shortcomings extend well beyond Arizona.

Republican candidates in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are struggling to keep pace with Democratic fundraising. Recruiting failures have dashed GOP hopes in reach states like Maryland and threaten a prime pickup opportunity in New Hampshire. And a recent plan that would raise taxes on low-income Americans and seniors, released by the Republican Senate midterm chief, Florida Sen. Rick Scott, is putting GOP candidates in a difficult position across states like Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida.

...

Rep. Val Demings, the leading Democrat in the race to unseat Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, acknowledged that her party has struggled to highlight its accomplishments — including sweeping coronavirus pandemic relief and a massive infrastructure package — in the face of President Joe Biden’s political woes. But she seized on [Rick] Scott’s plan as a clear contrast for how Democrats and Republicans would govern differently.

“This plan is toxic. It would hurt working families. It would hurt seniors. And Rubio’s going to own it,” Demings said in an interview.

Trump on Ukraine and Other Things

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses foreign influence and Trump's attack on democracy.  Russia helped Trump through 2020.  As Russia began its latest invasion of Ukraine, Trump lavished praise on Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. 

During his first impeachment, he falsely accused Ukraine of interfering in the 2016 election.

Josh Dawey at WP:

Former president Donald Trump mused Saturday to the GOP’s top donors that the United States should label its F-22 planes with the Chinese flag and “bomb the s--t out of Russia.” He also praised North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as “seriously tough,” claimed he was harder on Vladimir Putin than any other president, reiterated his false claims that he won the 2020 election, urged his party to be “tougher” on supposed election fraud, disparaged a range of prominent party opponents and called global warming “a great hoax” that could actually bring a welcome development: more waterfront property.

“And then we say, China did it, we didn’t do it, China did it, and then they start fighting with each other and we sit back and watch,” he said of labeling U.S. military planes with Chinese flags and bombing Russia, which was met with laughter from the crowd of donors, according to a recording of the speech obtained by The Washington Post.

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 Trump made an ominous call for the party to be more loyal in backing up his claims about fraud.

"The vote counter is often more important than the candidate,” he told the crowd, saying he had learned that from radio show host Mark Levin. “ … We have to get a lot tougher and smarter at the polls.”

...

 He also viciously mocked Republicans who didn’t back him in his crusade to hold power after he lost the 2020 election. “Stupid, corrupt Mitch McConnell,” he said of the Senate minority leader, before labeling former vice president Mike Pence a “conveyor belt — like corn” for opening and counting the electoral college votes as the Constitution requires.

Gabby Orr at CNN:

Former Vice President Mike Pence on Friday condemned Republican “apologists” who have used positive language to describe Russian President Vladimir Putin amid his invasion of Ukraine, according to a source who was in the room as Pence spoke to top GOP donors.

“There is no room in this party for apologists for Putin. There is only room for champions of freedom,” Pence said. The line received applause from donors who were gathered for a Republican National Committee retreat in New Orleans, the source said. The event was closed to the press.

Pence’s speech came just days after former President Donald Trump described Putin as “genius” and “savvy” for launching a full-scale invasion in Ukraine, where civilian casualties continue to pile up despite global condemnation of the Russian leader’s actions.

 

Roger Stone Should Have Heeded Stringer Bell

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie.  And we now know how close he came to subverting the Constitution.  

Dalton Bennett and Jon Swaine at WP:

As a mob ransacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Roger Stone, Donald Trump’s longest-serving political adviser, hurried to pack a suitcase inside his elegant suite on the fifth floor of the Willard hotel. He wrapped his tailored suits in trash bags, reversed his black face mask so its “Free Roger Stone” logo was hidden, then slipped out of town for a hastily arranged private flight from Dulles International Airport.

“I really want to get out of here,” Stone told an aide, as they were filmed at the hotel by a Danish camera crew for a documentary on the veteran Republican operative. Stone said he feared prosecution by the incoming attorney general, Merrick Garland. “He is not a friend,” Stone said.

Stone allowed the filmmakers to document his activities during extended periods over more than two years. In addition to interviews and moments when Stone spoke directly to the camera, they also captured fly-on-the-wall footage of his actions, candid off-camera conversations from a microphone he wore and views of his iPhone screen as he messaged associates on an encrypted app. Reporters from The Washington Post reviewed more than 20 hours of video filmed for the documentary, “A Storm Foretold,” which is expected to be released later this year.

The Crimes of January 6

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie.  And we now know how close he came to subverting the Constitution.  

Luke Broadwater and Alan Feuer at NYT:

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol said on Wednesday that there was enough evidence to conclude that former President Donald J. Trump and some of his allies might have conspired to commit fraud and obstruction by misleading Americans about the outcome of the 2020 election and attempting to overturn the result.

In a court filing in a civil case in California, the committee’s lawyers for the first time laid out their theory of a potential criminal case against the former president. They said they had accumulated evidence demonstrating that Mr. Trump, the conservative lawyer John Eastman and other allies could potentially be charged with criminal violations including obstructing an official proceeding of Congress and conspiracy to defraud the American people.

The filing also said there was evidence that Mr. Trump’s repeated lies that the election had been stolen amounted to common law fraud.

Pilar Melendez at The Daily Beast:

An Oath Keeper accused of providing protection to Roger Stone before storming the U.S. Capitol in a stolen golf cart pleaded guilty on Wednesday, raising the prospect of a potent witness turning on key players in the violent insurrection.

Joshua James, 34, pleaded guilty to seditious conspiracy and obstruction of justice after communicating and congregating with several other members of the far-right group before and during the Capitol riot. The Alabama resident was originally charged last April, but last month was among 11 individuals to be hit with seditious conspiracy charges, alongside Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes.

During the Wednesday change-for-plea hearing, James said he understood what he was admitting to and that as part of his plea agreement, he had agreed to testify. James now faces a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison, though prosecutors said he may face something closer to 7 years behind bars and at least a $30,000 fine.

The charges for seditious conspiracy are by far the most serious yet lobbed at anyone in connection with the riot, and James represents a potentially bombshell witness in the saga.


Other plea deals from Capitol rioters, including the notorious QAnon Shaman, have typically included an agreement to cooperate with the federal government. Lawyers for James did not immediately respond to The Daily Beast’s request for comment.

Prosecutors allege that prior to the riots, James served as security at the “Stop the Steal” rally in D.C. At least one photo also shows him wearing an Oath Keeper patch the day before and the day of the insurrection. Court documents filed by federal prosecutors have also previously indicated that James previously served as Stone’s bodyguard. Stone has not been charged in connection with the riots, though he has been subpoenaed by the House committee investigating the criminal fiasco. 

Photograph of *Roger Stone* on *JANUARY 6th* with Joshua James, who just pled to SEDITIOUS CONSPIRACY and obstructing an official proceeding and is facing 7-9 years in prison as part of a full cooperation agreement.

This is going to get quite interesting. pic.twitter.com/5LpeHDLTVY

— Spiro Agnew’s Ghost 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 (@SpiroAgnewGhost) March 3, 2022

 Spencer S. Hsu and Rachel Weiner at WP:

The first defendant to stand trial in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol “lit the match” that led members of a pro-Trump mob to push past police and drive lawmakers from the chambers where they were set to certify President Biden’s 2020 election victory, prosecutors said Wednesday.

“A mob needs leaders and this man, Guy Wesley Reffitt of Wylie, Texas, drove all the way from home in Texas to D.C. to step up and fulfill that role,” Assistant U.S. Attorney Jeffrey S. Nestler told a panel of jurors in a federal courthouse during opening statements in the case.

Reffitt, 49, a pandemic-idled oil rig manager and alleged member of the right-wing anti-government movement Three Percenters, was “the tip of this mob’s spear,” in the worst assault on the Capitol since the War of 1812, prosecutors said.

In surveillance video shown publicly for the first time, prosecutors showed a crowd advancing toward a critical police line of defense above the Capitol’s West Terrace that afternoon, ignoring warnings and escalating use of force from a handful of officers guarding the head of its north staircase.