Douglas Kronaizl at Ballotpedia:
The 2022 election cycle is the first midterm election of Joe Biden’s (D) presidency. Historically, the incumbent president’s party loses seats in state legislative elections. Here are a few historical facts.
- Since 1922, Democratic presidents have seen their party lose an average of 388 state legislative seats in their first midterm elections. Republican presidents have seen an average loss of 345.
- Two presidents in that time—Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) and George W. Bush (R)—saw their parties gain state legislative seats in the first midterm elections of their presidencies. In Roosevelt’s first midterm election in 1934 during the Great Depression, Democrats gained 94 state legislative seats. During Bush’s presidency, Republicans gained 129 seats in the 2002 midterms, the first after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
- Since 2010, Democrats have had a net gain of state legislative seats in two election cycles—2012 and 2018—while Republicans have had a net gain in three—2014, 2016, and 2020.
- Barack Obama (D) saw a net loss of 702 Democratic state legislative seats during his first midterm in 2010, the largest loss for any Democratic president since at least 1921.
- Donald Trump (R) saw a net loss of 349 Republican state legislative seats in 2018.
Currently, there are 3,271 Democratic state legislators (44%) and 4,016 Republicans (54%).