Voters in the Individual Market

Resurgent Republic argues that Democrats err badly by minimizing the political significance of voters in the individual insurance market, many of whom are facing cancellations because of Obamacare.

The percentage of voters in the individual market is larger than their share of the population at large. Among the total U.S. population, 5 percent (or as many as 15 million people) pay for their health insurance individually, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In the lead up to last year’s presidential election, 21 percent of likely voters were in the individual market. This figure is very similar to our finding in 2009 where the self-insured equaled 18 percent of registered voters. Exit polls did not ask if voters have health insurance or what type, so it’s difficult to estimate the final percentage of the 2012 electorate. Even if turnout of low-enthusiasm voters cut the percentage in half, the percentage of self-insured voters would still be larger than their share of the population.

Like most voters with health insurance, self-insured voters are overwhelmingly satisfied with their coverage. Three-fourths (77 percent) of those self-insured are either very or somewhat satisfied with their plan. That’s not far off from the electorate at large where 84 percent report being very or somewhat satisfied. Therefore, the salient reason why President Obama is on the defensive regarding his “if you like it, you can keep it” pledge is not just because he misled voters. It’s because he did so on a topic where solid majorities of voters do indeed like their health plan and thereby assumed the law would not upend their coverage.
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Despite favorable demographics, data during the 2012 campaign indicate Republicans underperformed with self-insured voters. They held a favorable opinion of President Obama (51 to 45 percent), and an unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney (49 to 43 percent). Congressional Republicans faced a similar 6-point deficit on favorability and a 3-point disadvantage on the generic ballot. These are not the type of numbers one would expect from this voter profile.

The group reports that the issue could resonate in key Senate races:
 

Obama and Independents

Resurgent Republic reports on focus-group research:

As part of our Target Voter Series, Resurgent Republic sponsored four focus groups among Independent voters in Denver, Colorado and Richmond, Virginia. These respondents all voted for President Obama in 2008, but are undecided on the generic presidential ballot today.

Conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, the focus groups were split by gender.
In 2008 President Obama won a majority of the national vote due to his strong performance among Independents (52 to 44 percent), and as a result, he began his presidency with a deep reservoir of goodwill among swing voters. Due to Obama’s fiscal policies, it didn’t take long for his support among this target demographic to fray, as shown in our inaugural April 2009 national survey. A rebellion of the center erupted in 2010 as Democrats lost control of the House and were defeated in several battleground gubernatorial races. Ever since that point, President Obama has sought to win back swing voters, a task that will undoubtedly continue to Election Day.

After three-and-a-half years of his presidency, these Obama Independents still like the President, even if they moderately disapprove of the job he is doing. Yet the President’s personal likeability does not prevent many of these Independents from concluding (1) Obama has not delivered according to their expectations and (2) things are not getting better when considering the overall trend line from 2009 to today. The battle for swing voters will evolve once a Republican nominee emerges, but President Obama remains in a precarious position with these voters when their attention is focused on his record.

Additional key findings include:

• It’s premature for politicians to take credit for any positive economic news since these voters believe the economy is improving too slowly or not at all.

• The Independents in all four groups disapprove of both parties in Congress in clear, unmistakable terms.

• There’s growing frustration due to the perceived abuse of government benefits, including unemployment compensation and welfare assistance.

• Both Keystone and Solyndra are liabilities for Obama but for different reasons. The President's actions on the Keystone pipeline contradict an "all of the above" energy policy, and Solyndra puts Obama in the context of "just another politician."

Also see the infographic on Obama-as-car.

Third Way reports:

Who will be this year’s decisive group? Swing Independents.

Third Way’s newest poll with Global Strategy Group looks at 1,000 Independents in battleground states and identifies a bloc of voters who are truly up-for-grabs in 2012: Swing Independents.

There’s good news for the President: Swing Independents have positive views of Obama, but they are not locked down. So far Swing Indys prefer President Obama by 6 points, but over one-third are undecided. The Congressional ballot is virtually tied, with nearly 6 in 10 undecided.

We find that Swing Independents are “opportunity” voters—preferring an optimistic, opportunity framework on the economy over one based on fairness. Why? Opportunity addresses their anxieties about the future, concerns that America is slipping, doubts about how the next generation will succeed, and questions over how we will strengthen our economy.

Seniors and the Campaign

Resurgent Republic reports on a focus group of seniors:

When asked how they will evaluate President Obama come November, most respondents in our Target Voter Series pointed to the economy or their personal financial situation. These seniors were consistent with that theme, but this target voter group added the quality and cost of health care as a top priority. Many surveys have shown that health care is a top priority for older females, while older men tend to worry more about fiscal issues. In our groups, however, senior males and females were equally likely to bring up the health care issue.

Additional key findings include:

• With few exceptions, these seniors were satisfied with their current health care coverage and nervous about changing what is perceived as a good thing.
• These seniors recalled few specifics of ObamaCare. Recall of what is in the legislation ranges from very fuzzy to non-existent. However, when reminded, they did express negative reactions to specific features like the individual mandate, Independent Payment Advisory Board, and Medicare cuts.
• Seniors tended to cite the "wars" as more of a leading cause of the nation’s escalating debt crisis than entitlement spending.
• Since many of these voters have a fixed income, they were acutely aware of changes in home values and everyday costs (i.e., health care, food, and gas prices).

Survey on Tax Arguments

In its latest poll analysis, Resurgent Republic candidly acknowledges that the "balanced approach/fair share" argument has an edge over the "no new taxes" argument:

Neither conservative response tested opposing all tax increases defeats the liberal call for a "balanced approach" that has everyone paying "their fair share." The survey phrased the call for tax increases as:

Congressman A says that Congress needs to take a balanced approach to our debt problem by raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans and biggest corporations. They should pay their fair share by giving up tax breaks and special deductions.

The survey tested two options in response, with the first phrased as:

Congressman B says this is the wrong time to raise taxes on anyone. Higher taxes mean more money going to the government, and less money in the economy that businesses can use to hire workers and create new jobs.

With that formulation, the argument for higher taxes leads the argument against tax increases by 54 to 42 percent, including Democrats at 71 to 26 percent and Independents at 53 to 44 percent. Republicans oppose tax increases by 60 to 38 percent.

The other response was:

Congressman B says this is the wrong time to raise taxes on anyone. The top ten percent of earners already pay over two-thirds of all federal income taxes, while nearly half of Americans pay no federal income tax, and U.S. companies pay a thirty-five percent tax rate, more than most European countries.

The second response does somewhat better than the first, but only marginally. With that formulation, the argument for higher taxes leads the argument against tax increases by 53 to 43 percent, with Democrats at 74 to 25 percent and Independents at 48 to 46 percent. Republicans oppose raising taxes by 59 to 38 percent.

Resurgent Roundup

Some poll data via Resurgent Republic:

More Americans believe the nation is on the wrong track since the beginning of the year, an increase influenced by the rise in gasoline prices (a plurality of Democrats now believe President Obama should do more to increase offshore drilling). On key economic measurements, President Obama remains upside down, leaving him vulnerable to criticism of his leadership on the budget. Also two separate polls find that Americans are more likely to believe that the debate over government employee unions is more about solving fiscal problems than weakening unions.

Political Climate

• Nearly two-thirds of the country believes that America is on the wrong track. By 64 to 31 percent, Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, a two-year high in this poll (Reuters/Ipsos, 3/3-6/11).
• A plurality of voters believe Republicans in Congress are “taking a stronger leadership role” in Washington compared to President Obama (46 to 39 percent). In December of last year, respondents were split, 43 percent favoring Obama with Republicans in Congress at 42 percent (WP/ABC, 3/10-13/11).

Obama Approval

• Half of registered voters would not vote to re-elect President Obama (50 to 40 percent). There is a 13-point intensity gap on the generic ballot with 35 percent who say they would definitely vote for someone else compared to 22 percent who would definitely re-elect President Obama (Allstate/National Journal, 3/4-8/11).
• A majority of Americans disapprove of how President Obama is handling the economy (43 percent approve, 55 percent disapprove) and the federal deficit (39 percent approve, 55 percent disapprove). On both measurements, nearly 2x as many Americans strongly disapprove compared to those who strongly approve (WP/ABC, 3/10-13/11).
• 7 out of 10 Americans believe President Obama’s economic stimulus spending has made no difference (49 percent) or hurt (21 percent) the national economy. Only 28 percent believe the spending has helped the economy, matching this survey’s low point in June 2009 (WP/ABC, 3/10-13/11).
• Independent voters trust Republicans in Congress to do a better job than President Obama on the economy (47 to 39 percent), the federal deficit (48 to 36 percent), and split on health care (42 to 41 percent in favor of Republicans in Congress) (Quinnipiac, 2/21-28/11).