Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
Thursday afternoon, the National Republican Senatorial Committee released a statement from communications director Joanna Rodriguez on Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton’s divorce filing against her husband, state Attorney General Ken Paxton. “What Ken Paxton has put his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting,” read the statement. Not your everyday Capitol Hill press release, to say the least.
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Paxton served 10 years in the Texas state House and two years in the state Senate before his election as attorney general in 2014. In 2015, a year after becoming the state’s chief legal officer, Paxton was indicted on securities-fraud charges. The case languished for nine years, during which he was reelected twice, impeached by the state House, and acquitted by the state Senate. In March of 2024, he reached a plea-bargain agreement that required restitution of almost $300,000 but did not require him to step down from his post.
That brings us back to the NRSC. To be very clear, I am not criticizing Rodriguez, the NRSC staff, or its chairman, Sen. Tim Scott. I understand why they did it, but—wow!
If Cornyn is the GOP nominee, he wins the general election easily—period. But virtually all polling shows Paxton ahead in a primary, be it by 9 points, 19 points, or even 22 points. The most reputable survey, conducted by the Tarrance Group for the Senate Leadership Fund (the chief super PAC for Senate Republicans, closely aligned with Majority Leader Thune), showed Paxton’s margin on the lower end of that range, at 10 points.
Given all of Paxton’s baggage, some of that same polling shows that Democrats would have a good shot against Paxton if he’s the nominee. So it’s easy to understand why national GOP leaders have a vested interest in Cornyn winning renomination, in the process saving them a pile of general-election money.
