The Nodfather, Age 80

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is has been full of ominous developments.  In 2024, Trump was already showing signs of cognitive decline. It's getting worse.

 Annie Linskey at WSJ:

President Trump closed his eyes and appeared to nod off while seated in a suite this week at an NBA Finals game in New York City as cameras caught him snacking on french fries and pizza. He returned to the White House after 2 a.m.

By 10 a.m. the next day, he offered a lengthy critique of a recently published Wall Street Journal editorial to a reporter who called him on his cellphone, and said the downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz “wasn’t a big deal.” Hours later, he ordered strikes on Iran in retaliation for the incident.

As Trump approaches his 80th birthday on Sunday, he and his advisers have made a strategic decision to turn the president into an omnipresent figure in American life, drawing a contrast with his octogenarian predecessor, Joe Biden. Trump makes regular marathon appearances in the Oval Office, he answers reporters’ cold calls and he tees off on social media at all hours of the day and night.

fThe result is that Americans are seeing more of both the good and the bad of an aging president.

In question-and-answer sessions that sometimes last more than 30 minutes, the president spars with reporters, delivering one-liners that ripple across cable news and the internet.

But cameras often zoom in on his bruised hands, stooped posture and closed eyes. And he sometimes trips over his words and confuses details. He has referred to Greenland as Iceland. He has called the Strait of Hormuz the Strait of Iran. And he has mixed up recent conflicts in South America and the Middle East.

Americans Are Noticing Trump's Erratic Behavior

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is has been full of ominous developments.  In 2024, Trump was already showing signs of cognitive decline. It's getting worse.

Voters are noticing.

Jason Lange at Reuters:

Six in ten Americans, including a significant slice of Republicans, think President Donald Trump has become erratic as he ages, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The six-day poll concluded on Monday, the day before the 79-year-old president gives his annual State of the Union address to Congress following a month of angry reprimands of lawmakers and judges.

Overall, 61% of respondents in the poll said they would describe Trump as having "become erratic with age." Some 89% of Democrats, 30% of Republicans and 64% of independents described him this way.

 

Breaking: Trump Won't Get Younger in 2026

 Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is has been full of ominous developments.  In 2024, Trump was already showing signs of cognitive decline. It's getting worse.

 Annie Linskey, Josh Dawsey, and Meridith McGraw at WSJ:

President Trump is taking more aspirin than his doctors recommend. He briefly tried wearing compression socks for his swelling ankles, but stopped because he didn’t like them. And he regrets undergoing advanced imaging because it generated scrutiny of his health.

“In retrospect, it’s too bad I took it because it gave them a little ammunition,” Trump said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on his decision to get a cardiovascular and abdominal scan in October. “I would have been a lot better off if they didn’t, because the fact that I took it said, ‘Oh gee, is something wrong?’ Well, nothing’s wrong.”

Trump, 79, the oldest man to assume the presidency, is showing signs of aging in public and private, according to people close to him. Yet he has at times eschewed the advice of his doctors and scoffed at the medical community’s widely accepted health recommendations, relying instead on what he calls his “good genetics.” Trump and his doctor say he is in excellent health, and aides say he maintains a vigorous schedule.

Trump gets little sleep and has recently struggled to keep his eyes open during several televised events in the West Wing. Aides, donors and friends say they often have to speak loudly in meetings with the president because he strains to hear. Aside from golf, Trump doesn’t get regular exercise, and he is known to consume a diet heavy on salty and fatty foods, such as hamburgers and french fries.

The large dose of aspirin he chooses to take daily has caused him to bruise easily, he said, and he has been encouraged by his doctors to take a lower dose. But Trump has declined to switch because he has been taking it for 25 years. “I’m a little superstitious,” he said in the interview.

...

Trump said he had plenty of energy, which he credited to his parents, who he said were energetic until their old age.

“Genetics are very important,” he said. “And I have very good genetics.”

 

Interesting that this story on Trump’s aging omits previous reporting (by Wash Post) of Alzheimer’s/dementia of Trump’s father. Trump brags about his “genes” so often. https://t.co/DhquefOli8

— Barbara Comstock (@BarbaraComstock) January 1, 2026

Trump Is Not Well

 Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is has been full of ominous developments. Last year, Trump was already showing signs of cognitive decline. It's getting worse.

 Daniel Orton and Robert Birsel at Newsweek:

Tim Walz hit back at Donald Trump after the president used an ableist slur to attack him during a late-night online tirade against immigration.

Trump called the Minnesota governor “seriously retarded,” a term widely regarded as derogatory toward people with intellectual disabilities. Walz responded by calling for the release of the president’s recent MRI results, drawing renewed attention to questions surrounding the 79-year-old commander-in-chief's health.

Trump's health has drawn increased scrutiny in recent months after he was diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency, a common condition in older adults. He also confirmed receiving an MRI at Walter Reed in October as part of what the White House described as a routine physical, though Trump told reporters he had “no idea what they analyzed.”

"Release the MRI results," Walz wrote, sharing a screenshot on X of Trump's lengthy Truth Social post in which he slammed immigration, attacked Walz and Somali-American Democratic Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar, and pushed unsubstantiated claims about Somali immigrants.

 Katie Rogers and Dylan Freedman at NYT:

According to a Times analysis of the official presidential schedules in a database maintained by Roll Call, Mr. Trump’s first official event starts later in the day. In 2017, the first year of his first term, Mr. Trump’s scheduled events started at 10:31 a.m. on average. By contrast, Mr. Trump in his second term has started scheduled events in the afternoon on average, at 12:08 p.m. His events end on average at around the same time as they did during the first year of his first term, shortly after 5 p.m.

The number of Mr. Trump’s total official appearances has decreased by 39 percent. In 2017, Mr. Trump held 1,688 official events between Jan. 20 and Nov. 25 of that year. For that same time period this year, Mr. Trump has appeared in 1,029 official events.

Mr. Trump still regularly comes down to the Oval Office after 11 a.m., according to a person familiar with his schedule. This routine is a holdover from his first term: After he complained about being overscheduled in the mornings, Mr. Trump kept so-called executive time hours in the White House residence before he headed downstairs for work.

...
Mr. Trump has long rambled in his speeches; during his 2024 campaign and in his second term, the meandering has often been noticeable. He can veer off script to share stories that are sometimes riddled with untruths, such as his false claim that his uncle, John Trump, had taught the domestic terrorist Ted Kaczynski at M.I.T.

“I said, ‘What kind of a student was he, Uncle John, Dr. John Trump?’ He said, ‘What kind of a student?’ And then he said, ‘seriously good.’ He said he’d go around correcting everybody,” Mr. Trump said during a speech in Pennsylvania in July. “But it didn’t work out too well for him, didn’t work out too well, but it’s interesting in life. But I will say this that we have the greatest brains, we have the greatest power and we are going to have more electric.”

A rational president would ignore the story, confident that it would soon fade away.  Instead, Trump spotlighted it. 

Marina Dunbar at The Guardian:

Donald Trump lashed out on Wednesday against a New York Times reporter, calling her “ugly inside and out” in his latest personal insult against female members of the media after last week calling another “piggy”.

In a Truth Social post, Trump criticized the newspaper for an article suggesting he was running low on energy in his 80th year, insisting he had “never worked so hard in my life”.

Trump specifically targeted one of the authors. “The writer of the story, Katie Rogers, who is assigned to write only bad things about me, is a third rate reporter who is ugly, both inside and out,” he wrote.

Rumors surrounding the president’s health have been circulating for months, with more questions raised after Trump admitted to having an MRI last month. He claimed it was part of a standard physical and would not reveal what body part the test had analyzed.

 

Doddering Donald

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. Trump is showing his age.  Sometimes, it's amusing, but sometimes it's disturbing. Cognitive decline is no joke when it involves someone who can wipe out all life on Earth.

Dan Diamond and JM Rieger at WP:

President Donald Trump hosted one of the more attention-grabbing press events of his term in the Oval Office this week, announcing price cuts for weight-loss drugs, only to be interrupted when one of the attendees collapsed in a faint.

Before that dramatic turn of events, however, Trump appeared to struggle to stay awake as his health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and two other deputies took turns explaining the announcement. Clips of the scene have circulated widely on social media and drawn heavy criticism from Democrats.

A Washington Post analysis of multiple video feeds found that Trump spent nearly 20 minutes apparently battling to keep his eyes open at the Thursday event. It was a seemingly stark illustration of the strain of the presidency on a 79-year-old who typically keeps a vigorous travel schedule that even his aides say they struggle to keep up with — and who has reveled in calling his predecessor “Sleepy Joe” Biden.

Sitting behind the Resolute Desk on Thursday, the president displayed a constellation of movements familiar to anyone who has attempted to stay awake during a work meeting. He closed his eyes. He put his hand to his temple. He slouched in his chair.

Farrah Tomazin at The Daily Beast:

He spoke about people being forced to flee to Miami from “South Africa” due to communism, when he meant to say “South America.”

He recalled getting “indicted” over allegations he improperly sought help from Ukraine, when in reality he was “impeached.”

...

Ten months into his second term, 79-year-old President Donald Trump finds himself facing the same kind of scrutiny that haunted his predecessor, Joe Biden.

Over the past 48 hours alone, the Daily Beast has counted at least a dozen times when Trump has either confused names and dates, mixed up facts, or even appeared to drift off in public, prompting the obvious question: Is the president OK?

The confusion over his first impeachment, and his South Africa/South America mix-up, took place while Trump was in Miami addressing a business forum on Wednesday.

At the same event, the president declared communism began “1,000 years ago” (which would be 1025, when Vikings roamed the Earth) and that America’s electricity grid was built “200 years” ago (it was mostly built in the 1960s and ’70s, says the energy department).

He also claimed that the U.S. economy would be “in a depression” without his tariffs (history shows that is not the case), and bragged that the U.S. has “never lost a war” (apparently forgetting the Bay of Pigs invasion against Cuba, or America’s retreats in Vietnam, Korea and Afghanistan, to name just the most prominent examples).

In some cases, it is difficult to determine whether Trump is merely confused, deliberately lying, or simply uninformed about the facts.

 

 

Maine and the Democrats' Age Problem

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Dan Merica at WP:

Maine Gov. Janet Mills’s campaign for U.S. Senate has reignited a contentious debate about candidates’ ages in a Democratic Party increasingly eager to inject more youth into its aging ranks.


Mills, seen as a major recruit for Senate Democratic leaders, launched her campaign on Tuesday. She is 77 and would be the oldest freshman senator ever if she wins the seat held by Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).

Age has become a focal point for Democrats heading into the midterm elections. The party is still reeling from Joe Biden’s decision to seek a second term as the oldest president in 2024, before bowing out following a disastrous debate where he appeared to lose his train of thought, heightening concerns in the party about his age and acuity. Democratic losses in 2024 have led many party activists to urge a passing of the torch to younger leaders, particularly after years of dominance by congressional leaders in their 70s and 80s.
...
Her entrance into a marquee battleground race, which has been expected for weeks, has already drawn some criticism in the party. “It just seems sort of irresponsible,” former congresswoman Susan Wild (Pennsylvania), a 68-year-old Democrat who decided not to run for Congress next year because of her age, said of Mills’s decision to run at her age. “We all talk about the importance of attracting new voters and regaining the trust of certain groups that may have fallen away from the Democratic Party, and I think when you do the same old, same old, that is the last thing you are doing.

Noting that Collins, at 72, is five years younger than the governor, Wild quipped, “So, she would be the youngster against Mills.”

Mills is not alone in being a Democratic septuagenarian Senate candidate this cycle: 79-year-old Sen. Edward J. Markey (D-Massachusetts), 75-year-old Sen. Jack Reed (D-Rhode Island) and 73-year-old Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colorado) are running for reelection next year. But other senators, such as 78-year-old Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) and 80-year-old Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Illinois), have cited their age in their decision not to run for reelection next year.

Biden's Decline and Fall

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Our next book will describe how Biden had to exit the race after his disastrous debate performance. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee. 

 Annie Linskey, Rebecca Ballhaus, Emily Glazer, and Siobhan Hughes at WSJ:

Presidents always have gatekeepers. But in Biden’s case, the walls around him were higher and the controls greater, according to Democratic lawmakers, donors and aides who worked for Biden and other administrations. There were limits over who Biden spoke with, limits on what they said to him and limits around the sources of information he consumed.

Throughout his presidency, a small group of aides stuck close to Biden to assist him, especially when traveling or speaking to the public. “They body him to such a high degree,” a person who witnessed it said, adding that the “hand holding” is unlike anything other recent presidents have had.

The White House operated this way even as the president and his aides pressed forward with his re-election bid—which unraveled spectacularly after his halting performance in a June debate with Donald Trump made his mental acuity an insurmountable issue. Vice President Kamala Harris replaced him on the Democratic ticket and was decisively defeated by Trump in a shortened campaign—leaving Democrats to debate whether their chances were undercut by Biden’s refusal to yield earlier.

...

The president’s team of pollsters also had limited access to Biden, according to people familiar with the president’s polling. The key advisers have famously had the president’s ear in most past White Houses.

During the 2020 campaign, Biden had calls with John Anzalone, his pollster, during which the two had detailed conversations.

By the 2024 campaign, the pollsters weren’t talking to the president about their findings, and instead sent memos that went to top campaign staff.

Biden’s pollsters didn’t meet with him in person and saw little evidence that the president was personally getting the data that they were sending him, according to the people.

People close to the president said he relied on Mike Donilon, one of Biden’s core inner circle advisers. With a background in polling, Donilon could sift through the information and present it to the president.

Bates said that Biden stayed abreast of polling data.

But this summer, Democratic insiders became alarmed by the way Biden described his own polling, publicly characterizing the race as a tossup when polls released in the weeks after the disastrous June debate consistently showed Trump ahead. They worried he wasn’t getting an unvarnished look at his standing in the race.

Those fears intensified on July 11, when Biden’s top advisers met behind closed doors with Democratic senators, where the advisers laid out a road map for Biden’s victory. The message from the advisers was so disconnected from public polling—which showed Trump leading Biden nationally—that it left Democratic senators incredulous. It spurred Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) to speak to Biden directly, according to people familiar with the matter, hoping to pierce what the senators saw as a wall erected by Donilon to shield Biden from bad information. Donilon didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Trump Closer: A Mashup of Tom Dewey and Linda Lovelace

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.

One thing is certain about the current campaign:  Trump isn't getting any younger.  He is sundowning.

Ben Blanchet at HuffPo:

Former President Donald Trump used apparent technical issues during a Friday rally to toy with the idea of attacking people working the event in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

“You’ve got to be kidding. Do you want to see me knock the hell out of people backstage?” asked the GOP presidential nominee, who called it a “pretty stupid situation” after rallygoers chanted “fix the mic” during his speech.

In 1948, Tom Dewey lost support from railroad workers and other blue-collar voters with a similar comment. Time, 10/25/1948

 A slight misadventure at Beaucoup, Ill. almost spoiled that stop. Engineer Lee Tindle, who improved the time at these railway siding stops by taking on water, had overshot the water tank. Without realizing what he was doing, he backed the Victory Special into a gathering of admirers at the rear end.

The crowd fell back in panic. Dewey, startled, yelled “Whoops!” But the train moved only a few feet and Dewey, smiling wryly, addressed himself to the microphone. “That’s the first lunatic I’ve had for an engineer,” he declared. “He probably ought to be shot at sunrise but I guess we can let him off because no one was hurt.”

Disinhibition is a sign of dementia., Trump also simulated sex acts on a microphone:

 

Wow wtf is he doing pic.twitter.com/TNHFsQF2OH

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 2, 2024

Trump and Disinhibition

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.

One thing is certain about the current campaign:  Trump isn't getting any younger.  He is sundowning.

Zac Anderson David Jackson Karen Weintraub USA TODAY

Donald Trump's repeated gaffes, non sequiturs, and plain odd behavior have opened the door to questions from opponents about the 78-year-old candidate's mental and physical fitness.

From bopping to the beat of his music playlist for nearly 40 minutes at a recent swing state town hall to blaming Ukraine for Russia's invasion, to riffing on locker room gossip about a pro golfer's anatomy, Trump is providing plenty of fodder for rivals who've declared him "unhinged" and worse.

As Republicans did to 81-year-old President Joe Biden earlier this year, Democrats including horror novelist Stephen King and former presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama are seizing every opportunity to bash Trump − and it's a target-rich environment.

Trump goes on long confused ramble: “Arnold Palmer is all man. I mean no disrespect to women, I love women, but he was all man. When he took showers with the other pros they came out saying ‘Oh my God.’ I had to say it... I had to tell you the shower part because it’s true” pic.twitter.com/Xq8BDbqXJU

— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) October 19, 2024

Rolling Stone:

Moving on from that endowment to him addressing his competitor, who is well-endowed financially in comparison to Trump’s campaign (Harris raised $1 billion in the less than three months she’s been a candidate, more than Trump has finagled in a year of campaigning), Trump hit another low when referring to her on Saturday. While he has been plenty derogatory to Harris since she entered the candidacy, having called her “retarded” and also “mentally disabled” during recent speeches, this time he resorted to just dropping the s-bomb.

“So you have to tell Kamala Harris that you’ve had enough, that you just can’t take it anymore,” he told attendees on Saturday while they cheered. “We can’t stand you. You’re a shit vice president. The worst. You’re the worst vice president, Kamala. You’re fired. Get the hell out of here.”

For those of us who have lived with loved ones with dementia, this story is especially frightening because what is called “disinhibition” is often an early symptom.
Maybe Trump can no longer stop himself from saying these things in public.https://t.co/OEhzhh8AhV via @NYTimes

— Richard Tofel (@dicktofel) October 20, 2024

Ipsos, September 22, 2020:

According to a recent online survey of 1,217 Americans conducted by Ipsos on behalf MDVIP, a national network of primary care doctors who focus on delivering personalized, patient-centered medicine and preventive care, finds that one-third of Americans have a close relative who suffers from Alzheimer’s disease or dementia (31%). The study also finds that two-thirds of Americans are concerned about their risk of developing dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (67%), and that most are interested in mitigating this risk (80%). l

Trump Mental Acuity

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.

One thing is certain about the current campaign:  Trump isn't getting any younger.  He is sundowning.

Marianne LeVine at WP:

The town hall, moderated by South Dakota Gov. Kristi L. Noem (R), began with questions from preselected attendees for the former president. Donald Trump offered meandering answers on how he would address housing affordability and help small businesses. But it took a sudden turn after two attendees required medical attention.

And so Trump, after jokingly asking the crowd whether “anybody else would like to faint,” took a different approach.

“Let’s not do any more questions. Let’s just listen to music. Let’s make it into a music. Who the hell wants to hear questions, right?” he said.

For 39 minutes, Trump swayed, bopped — sometimes stopping to speak — as he turned the event into almost a living-room listening session of his favorite songs from his self-curated rally playlist.

Harris is now going directly at Trump's mental acuity.

 

Hope he's okay. https://t.co/WGhGteFpjm

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 15, 2024

Trump's Cognitive Decline

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.

One thing is certain about the current campaign:  Trump isn't getting any younger.

 Peter Baker and Dylan Freeman at NYT:

With Mr. Biden out, Mr. Trump, at 78, is now the oldest major party nominee for president in history and would be the oldest president ever if he wins and finishes another term at 82. A review of Mr. Trump’s rallies, interviews, statements and social media posts finds signs of change since he first took the political stage in 2015. He has always been discursive and has often been untethered to truth, but with the passage of time his speeches have grown darker, harsher, longer, angrier, less focused, more profane and increasingly fixated on the past.

According to a computer analysis by The New York Times, Mr. Trump’s rally speeches now last an average of 82 minutes, compared with 45 minutes in 2016. Proportionately, he uses 13 percent more all-or-nothing terms like “always” and “never” than he did eight years ago, which some experts consider a sign of advancing age.

Similarly, he uses 32 percent more negative words than positive words now, compared with 21 percent in 2016, which can be another indicator of cognitive change. And he uses swearwords 69 percent more often than he did when he first ran, a trend that could reflect what experts call disinhibition. (A study by Stat, a health care news outlet, produced similar findings.)

Mr. Trump frequently reaches to the past for his frame of reference, often to the 1980s and 1990s, when he was in his tabloid-fueled heyday. He cites fictional characters from that era like Hannibal Lecter from “Silence of the Lip” (he meant “Silence of the Lambs”), asks “where’s Johnny Carson, bring back Johnny” (who died in 2005) and ruminates on how attractive Cary Grant was (“the most handsome man”). He asks supporters whether they remember the landing in New York of Charles Lindbergh, who actually landed in Paris and long before Mr. Trump was born.

He seems confused about modern technology, suggesting that “most people don’t have any idea what the hell a phone app is” in a country where 96 percent of people own a smartphone. If sometimes he seems stuck in the 1990s, there are moments when he pines for the 1890s, holding out that decade as the halcyon period of American history and William McKinley as his model president because of his support for tariffs.

Trump's Dark Speech

Our books have discussed Trump's low character, which was on display this month At times, his crudeness and weirdness have helped him appear transgressive.  Lately, they have hurt him.

Mike Allen at Axios:

Former President Trump, in a self-described "dark speech," told a rally in Wisconsin yesterday that his opponent, Vice President Harris, is "mentally impaired" and "mentally disabled.""Joe Biden became mentally impaired," Trump said during a riff about immigration. "Kamala [mispronounces name] was born that way. [Laughter.] She was born that way. And if you think about it, only a mentally disabled person could have allowed this to happen to our country." (Video)

Why it matters: Even for Trump, it was weird, nasty and nonsensical — when he needed to be swaying "national security moms" and other undecideds, 38 days out from Election Day.Trump told the rally in Prairie du Chien (prairie of the dog): "This is a dark speech."

...

Other comments by Trump during the hour-plus remarks at the rally, which was moved inside at the last minute because of security concerns:He clarified that in addition to his plans to prosecute any 2024 election cheaters if he wins, "and if we can, we'll go back to the last one [2020], too, if we're allowed. But we're gonna prosecute people." (Video)


There's no evidence of widespread fraud during the 2020 election. And Trump continues to claim that the only way he'll lose in November is if Democrats cheat.

On Harris and the border: "She's letting in people who are going to walk into your house, break into your door and they'll do anything they want, they'll do anything they want. These people are animals. ... These are stone-cold killers. ... It's also the fact that they're taking all of our Black population's jobs and our Hispanic population's jobs." (Video ... Fact check)

On his debate performance: "All the stupid people — the anchors, back there — no, they say: "He fell into a trap' — her trap. She can't set a mental trap." (Video)

Is Trump Okay?

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.  And in just a few weeks, the race has changed. Trump thought the age issue would be his greatest asset.  Now that he is facing an opponent 18 years younger and increasingly showing his 78 years, it has become one of his greatest weaknesses.

 Christopher Cadelago at Politico:

The man who almost crashed in a helicopter with Donald Trump told POLITICO Trump confused him with former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown — despite the former president’s repeated insistence it was Brown.

It was Nate Holden, a former city councilman and state senator from Los Angeles, who said in an exclusive interview late Friday that he remembers the near-death experience well. He and others believe it happened sometime in 1990.

“Willie is the short Black guy living in San Francisco,” Holden said. “I’m a tall Black guy living in Los Angeles.

“I guess we all look alike,” Holden told POLITICO, letting out a loud laugh.

Trump said that his helicopter companion told him terrible things about Kamala Harris.  Mr. Holden certainly did not do so.  In 1990, he would not have even known about a newly-hired deputy district attorney in a county more than 300 miles away.

Maggie Haberman at NYT:

“We have the flight records of the helicopter,” Mr. Trump insisted Friday, saying the helicopter had landed “in a field,” and indicating that he intended to release the flight records, before shouting that he was “probably going to sue” over the Times article.

When asked to produce the flight records, Mr. Trump responded mockingly, repeating the request in a sing-song voice. As of early Friday evening, he had not provided them.

Mr. Trump has a history of claiming he will provide evidence to back up his claims but ultimately not doing so.

Donald Trump unravels, calling NYT reporter @maggieNYT "Maggot Hag-er-man" after he was called out for lying being in a helicopter crash.

Trump's campaign has always been about retribution and revenge. pic.twitter.com/jWkx7SbgjJ

— American Bridge 21st Century (@American_Bridge) August 10, 2024

Rambling Man

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.  And in just a few weeks, the race has changed. Trump thought the age issue would be his greatest asset.  Now that he is facing an opponent 18 years younger and increasingly showing his 78 years, it has become one of his greatest weaknesses.

Michael Scherer, Josh Dawsey and Patrick Svitek report on Trump's news conference at WP:

 Donald Trump defended people who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, saying they had been treated “very unfairly,” and bragged about his crowd size that day. He gave a noncommittal answer when asked if he would rule out restricting medication abortion, rekindling one of Democrats’ top political issues. He repeatedly flashed frustration with early Democratic enthusiasm for Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, complaining about coverage of her crowds. He told a reporter it was a “stupid question” to ask why he was not campaigning more.

...

The former president said Jewish people “should have their head examined” if they did not vote for him. He attacked Hillary Clinton and claimed that he told people to “relax” when they wanted to charge her with crimes, even as he led “lock her up” chants at his rallies. He lauded a judge who dismissed a case against him for allegedly mishandling classified documents and obstructing justice; called for more presidential authority over the Federal Reserve; said he was “not a big fan” of Biden’s brain; raised conspiracy theories about the 2020 election; and said mail-in voting should be ended. He labeled Elon Musk a “different kind of guy”; deemed his former strategist Stephen K. Bannon, currently serving prison time for contempt of Congress, a political prisoner; and bragged repeatedly about his crowd sizes, often with false numbers.

William Kristol and Andrew Egger at The Bulwark:

 He seemingly forgot the name of Tim Walz, whom he repeatedly referred to as “the gentleman from Minnesota” or “Kamala’s new friend” and described as “heavy into the transgender world, heavy into lots of different worlds having to do with safety.”

The elderly Trump confused Jerry Brown with Willie Brown, who do not look alike. Zoë Richards and Rebecca Shabad at NBC:

Former President Donald Trump on Thursday appeared to confuse former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown with former California Gov. Jerry Brown in recounting what he characterized as a near-death experience.

During a news conference from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, Trump said he once flew with Willie Brown in a helicopter that "went down" when he was asked about Vice President Kamala Harris' past relationship with the former mayor and whether he thought the relationship had played a role in her career path.

"In fact, I went down in a helicopter with him. We thought maybe this is the end. We were in a helicopter going to a certain location together, and there was an emergency landing. This was not a pleasant landing, and Willie was, he was a little concerned,” Trump said. "So I know him. I know him pretty well."

In an interview with the San Francisco Chronicle after the news conference, Willie Brown, who dated Harris years ago in San Francisco, denied multiple aspects of Trump's account.

“You would have known if I had gone down on a helicopter with Trump,” he said, according to the newspaper. “I’ve never been on a helicopter with Trump.”

In 2018, Trump was in a helicopter with Jerry Brown and his successor, then Gov.-elect Gavin Newsom, on the day they toured Paradise, California, a town that had been ravaged by wildfires.

 

Donald Trump actually thinks seeking asylum means you're coming from...an insane asylum. Sounds like he's mentally unfit for office idk! pic.twitter.com/MB7nHP5EqP

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) August 8, 2024

Everything Just Changed

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. 

After Biden's bad debate performance there was off-the-record talk about replacing him on the Democratic ticket. In the past week, many more Democrats went on the record.

Yesterday, Biden yielded to the inevitable.

 Mike Allen at Axios:

One candidate was shot in the ear — an assassin's bullet putting him inches from death. The other quarantined with COVID — then quit his campaign, reluctantly, abruptly.That was just eight days of the wildest and weirdest presidential campaign of our lifetime, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write in a Behind the Curtain column.

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How it happened: We told you Thursday in a breaking "Behind the Curtain" column that top Democrats were privately telling us they expected President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend.It happened right on schedule yesterday with a 1:46 p.m. ET tweet — one minute after a video call where he told senior staff of the White House and campaign. Harris, White House chief of staff Jeff Zients and campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon had gotten earlier heads-up calls.


The Biden campaign formally changed its name to Harris for President within hours. 

A Biden friend, pointing to the president's rage over last week's leaks, barbs and lectures from Democrats at all levels, told us: "It was fury for a while. Then he surrendered to reality. He's a professional."In the end, it was the data, including grim polling from swing states. "No one was able to produce data points that showed him winning," said a Democratic insider who has been at the center of the party's frantic conversations since Biden's debate debacle 25 days ago. "They tried everything. There was no path."

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"The whole party is breathing a sigh of relief," the Democratic insider said.
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President Biden quickly endorsed Vice President Harris for the nomination, as did the Clintons. But the Democratic Party is leaving open the possibility of a competitive nomination process, Mike and Jim write.Former President Obama held off on an endorsement, saying: "We will be navigating uncharted waters in the days ahead."

Between the lines: As we told you in a column two weeks ago, Harris will be almost impossible to beat for the nomination, thanks to endorsements, money, optics and 2028 politics. Given the Democratic base, are you really going to take down the first Black American, the first South Asian American and the first woman to be elected vice president?

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James Carville, who two weeks ago had advocated for regional town halls to help determine a nominee, now tells us it's too late for such a process. "You can just feel it: Let's go," he said. "I don't have any sense there's time or appetite."Harris immediately enjoyed "broad, swift consolidation" among major Democratic donors, who are feeling optimism for the first time in weeks, the N.Y. Times reports.

 

UPDATE: As of 9pm ET, grassroots supporters have raised $46.7 million through ActBlue following Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign launch. This has been the biggest fundraising day of the 2024 cycle. Small-dollar donors are fired up and ready to take on this election 🔥

— ActBlue (@actblue) July 22, 2024

Three Doors

I usually use this blog to post snippets of news stories, survey data, and academic studies. The audience is small, but that is irrelevant because I keep the blog primarily to take notes for future research projects. If other people want to look in, great.  If not, no problem.  The discipline of keeping a daily blog produces a great deal of source material even if nobody else is reading.

Today, however, I want to use the blog to analyze the problem facing Democrats.  They are looking at three doors, each opening up a world of danger.  There is no safe path forward.

Door 1 is simple:  go with Joe.  The risk is not just that the damage from the June 27 debate will linger. He is already falling behind Trump, and only a flawless, energetic performance on the campaign trail could turn things around.  Very unlikely.  He is slipping, and he will probably have more senior moments in public between now and Election Day.   

Door 2 is Kamala Harris, either by presidential endorsement or through some sort of contest.  On the one hand, she is energetic and can give a rousing speech. She has unfettered access to Biden-Harris campaign money.  She has undergone vetting, first through her short-lived 2020 presidential campaign and the background check preceding her nomination for vice president.  On the other hand, she says goofy stuff when she goes off-script.  She also has to grapple with her image as a California liberal and her nominal duty as point person on border issues, among other things.. And expect MAGA world to talk about her relationship with Willie Brown.

Door 3 is SOMEBODY ELSE.  Lots of fantasy names are floating around, including Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro.  One problem is that a last-minute candidate would have to build an organization and treasury from scratch and do it almost instantly.  Possible, but damn hard.  Another problem is that most fantasy names have undergone neither a formal background check nor an informal vetting through opposition research in a national campaign.  Yes, they have won statewide.  But presidential campaigns are different, with a much deeper level of scrutiny. (Remember that Tom Eagleton had won statewide in Missouri before it turned out that he had undergone electroconvulsive therapy.)  Moreover, someone who emerged out of a contested convention would have to pick a running mate right away, and that person would have undergone no vetting, either. Whitmer and Shapiro might be wonderful nominees who pick wonderful running mates.  But they could be disasters, too.

Dump-Biden Momentum?

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun.  It is a fight between two very old men.

After Biden's bad debate performance last week, there has been off-the-record talk about replacing him on the Democratic ticket. Some Democrats have gone on the record, but some are supporting him.

Biden has COVID and is not looking robust:

A fragile-looking Biden was spotted slowly walking down the steps of Air Force One following his Covid diagnosis. pic.twitter.com/GcydFDAaBn

— New York Post (@nypost) July 18, 2024

Mike Allen at Axios:

In at least one conversation since the debate, Pelosi conveyed to Biden and his campaign the political peril that Democrats face if he remains atop the ticket.

Schumer had a "blunt one-on-one conversation" with Biden on Saturday, in which Schumer "forcefully made the case that it would be best if Biden bowed out of the race," ABC News' Jon Karl reported.

The intrigue: Those interventions came last week, but didn't leak out until yesterday.Late last night, The New York Times reported that Biden "has become more receptive" to hearing arguments about why he should drop out — even asking questions about how Vice President Harris could win.

The first signs of yesterday's runaway rebellion came via a statement from Rep. Adam Schiff, a top Pelosi ally poised to be the next senator from California, calling for Biden to drop out.Then came news the Democratic National Committee is delaying its plan to nominate Biden in a virtual roll call weeks before the Aug. 19 convention, following backlash from rank-and-file Democrats who want more time to address concerns about the president's age.

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 Amid weeks of bad polling for Biden, AP-NORC dropped this bomb: 65% of Democrats believe the president should withdraw from the race and let the party pick a new nominee.The financial path forward will also be one of the key considerations Biden ponders as he remains isolated — both politically and physically.

Update on the Dump Biden Movement

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun.  It is a fight between two very old men.

After Biden's bad debate performance last week, there has been off-the-record talk about replacing him on the Democratic ticket. Some Democrats have gone on the record, but some are supporting him.

Until he stumbles again.

Theodore Schleifer at NYT:

For all their riches and ambitions, many Democratic contributors and their big-money advisers have become resigned to the notion that their influence is fairly limited, and are trying not to be naïve. A sense of powerlessness pervades.

After all, Mr. Biden is not, as one major Democratic donor put it, subject to a vote by the wealthy. And he and his team have bristled against wealthy “elites” who are trying to force him out of a Democratic nomination that he won democratically, heightening concerns from major donors who are already nervous about their efforts backfiring if they are seen as bullies.

Alex Thompson and Andrew Solender at Axios:

Since his disastrous debate last month, President Biden has embraced a laundry list of left-wing policy proposals, strong-armed the party's nomination process and still tried to limit spontaneous, unscripted moments.It's saved his candidacy — for now.

Why it matters: Biden's moves have kept top Democrats from stampeding away from him — even as many remain privately uneasy with the 81-year-old president staying at the top of the ticket and serving another term.Amid worries he could lose and drag down Democratic House and Senate candidates with him, just 20 Democrats in Congress have called on him to step aside.

Driving the news: That's partly because of promises that Biden — long a centrist Democrat — has made to his party's progressive wing.Biden said this past week that if he's re-elected, he'd call for legislation to cap landlords' ability to hike rent prices, push for a large-scale elimination of medical debt, and pursue other plans that have been applauded by progressives such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

Biden's chosen leadership at the Democratic National Committee also is pushing to use an electronic roll call to lock him in as the party's presidential nominee weeks before its convention begins Aug. 19 in Chicago.

The Purgatory Presser

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun.  It is a fight between two very old men.

After Biden's bad debate performance last week, there has been off-the-record talk about replacing him on the Democratic ticket. Some Democrats have gone on the record, but some are supporting him.

Until he stumbles again.

Politico Playbook:

BIDEN’S INK-BLOT TEST — It was arguably the most important news conference of Biden’s long career. Rumor had it that scores of congressional Democrats, expecting a disaster, had preemptively drafted statements calling on him to step aside as the party’s presidential candidate as soon as it ended. Some even privately hoped he would face-plant so that it could be a clean break.

Instead, Biden vaulted over the lower-than-the-Earth’s-core expectations. Now the Democratic Party’s path forward is even more uncertain than it was before Biden took the stage.

The fundamental challenge is that everyone saw a performance that seemed to reconfirm their prior beliefs about Biden.

Aides with the Biden campaign and White House were celebrating.

“He exceeded expectations. He answered really fucking hard foreign policy questions beyond my personal capacity to answer. And he also had a couple of great lines that we’re going to be able to use in the campaign,” one Biden aide told us last night. “It was important for the media, it was important for the Hill, it was important for an audience that we really need to show that we’re up to the task.”
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“This is the worst of all worlds,” one Democratic aide texted us. It was “damaging for [Biden’s] prospects, but not so bad it [that] provides enough fodder to use this to dump him from the ticket.”

“After the first gaffe, President Biden spoke confidently on foreign policy issues with command. The problem is that he left us in purgatory,” a veteran Democratic operative told Playbook. “Candidates and campaigns are supposed to make you feel something — hope, optimism, courage — but instead most of us felt nothing after that presser. And feeling nothing is how you lose elections.”

“Biden has lowered the bar until it’s on the floor and Democrats have to decide if they’re going to go along with it,” added another. “Being able to get through a press conference and being able to beat Trump are not the same thing.”

Most Dems we spoke with last night — even those who are ready for him to depart — agree that the presser moved things in the right direction for Biden. And that while unscripted moments are the things he needs to do the most to make folks comfortable again about him as the nominee, those unscripted moments are what gives them heartburn.

For them, watching Biden make a statement — especially one in a dynamic and unscripted environment — is the political equivalent of seeing a high-wire act without a net: If they fall, it’s likely fatal; if they don’t, they’ve simply wobbled to the other side to survive one more day.

Indeed, several more congressional Democrats called on Biden to leave the race after the conference ended. Reps. JIM HIMES (D-Conn.), SCOTT PETERS (D-Calif.) and ERIC SORENSON (D-Ill.) joined the chorus. But nowhere near the hyped “scores” of House members some had predicted.

Some Democrats we spoke with dreaded the likelihood that Biden aides would spin the night as a big win that showed a president in full command of his faculties. And so, the Biden detractors will regroup. Many lawmakers had drafted statements and were waiting to release them after the NATO summit and press conference wrapped up. Will they release them today?

What’s more, Democratic leaders at some point will also have to speak to Biden about the situation. How frank will they be?

“The Super Friends are assembling,” said a House Democrat who did not believe Biden’s performance yesterday changed anything. “There’s a group of people who are going to go make their case to whomever they can get to at the White House that he needs to step aside and we’re going to get our asses kicked if he doesn’t.”

In an “ideal world,” this “Super Friends” delegation, the member said, would be Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, President Pro Tempore PATTY MURRAY, House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, speaker emerita NANCY PELOSI and JIM CLYBURN.