Lies in the SOTU

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration  has been full of ominous developments.  Also, predictable ones, such as Trump's lies.

CNN:

President Donald Trump made numerous false or misleading claims in his State of the Union address on Tuesday night.

Many of them were long-debunked falsehoods familiar from his rallies, interviews and social media posts. These include various lies disparaging the fairness of US elections, his false claim that he ended wars that were never actually wars or never actually ended, and his fictional “$18 trillion” figure for supposed investment in the US over the past year.

The subject on which he was most frequently inaccurate was the economy. Among other things, Trump overstated the performance of the economy during this presidential term to date, overstated the inflation he inherited from the Biden administration, used highly misleading figures when discussing gasoline prices, and wrongly asserted, twice, that foreign countries are paying the tariffs that are actually being paid by US importers.

 

Click here for fact check of some of Trump’s remarks:

Katie Britt Update

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun. The nomination phase has effectively ended.  With Super Tuesday, the withdrawal of Nikki Haley, and the State of the Union, the general election campaign has begun.  Katie Britt's SOTU response has become a national laughingstock.

New #FactChecker --> Katie Britt’s false linkage of a sex-trafficking case to Joe Biden (h/t Jonathan Katz) https://t.co/rp7UdmSwHQ

— Glenn Kessler (@GlennKesslerWP) March 9, 2024

Ken Bensinger at NYT:

Ms. Jacinto, who spoke with the Times Saturday from Mexico, said she had not been informed ahead of time that Ms. Britt would be discussing her in the speech and only learned about it after a video pointing out the deceptive framing of the senator’s speech was posted by the independent journalist Jonathan Katz on TikTok on Friday.

“I only found out via social media,” said Ms. Jacinto, who continues to speak frequently about human trafficking and who is supported by a U.S.-based nonprofit, Reintegra, that provides educational grants to victims of sex trafficking in Latin America. “I thought it was very strange.”

She said she preferred to keep politics out of the question of human trafficking. “I am involved in the fight to stop trafficking and I don’t think it should be political,” she said. “The work I do is not a game.”

State of the Union Aftermath

 Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun. The nomination phase has effectively ended.  With Super Tuesday, the withdrawal of Nikki Haley, and the State of the Union, the general election campaign has begun.  Despite some garbled words and an occasional reappearance of his lifelong stutter, Biden's performance reassured nervous Democrats that he can display vigor.

NYT:

In a raucous State of the Union address, President Joe Biden’s goal was to reassure Americans that at 81, he is ready for a second term.

• A Contrast With Trump: President Biden launched a series of fiery attacks against former President Donald Trump, a competitor whom he did not mention by name but made clear was a dire threat to American democracy and stability in the world.
• A Rowdy Address: The president was feisty and confrontational. Republicans jeered from their seats. And Democrats enthusiastically cheered their presidential nominee even as a few aired their grievances about the war in Gaza.
• Biden’s Battles: Republican opposition, splits in his own party and tension with allies make Mr. Biden’s vow to restore American power more complicated than it was when he came into office.
• Trump’s Response: Outages on Trump’s platform, Truth Social, interrupted the barrage of derogatory posts that served as his retort to Biden’s remarks.

The GOP response by Sen. Katie Britt of Alabama was a fiasco. Martin Pengelly at The Guardian:

Katie Britt’s Republican response to Joe Biden’s State of the Union address drew reactions ranging from the baffled to the satirical to the appalled, even among fellow rightwingers.

“What the hell am I watching right now?” an unnamed Trump adviser told Rolling Stone.

“It’s one of our biggest disasters ever,” another unnamed Republican strategist told the Daily Beast.

...

In his address Biden used his bully pulpit effectively, attacking Republicans in a fiery speech and inviting a strong response. But Britt’s speech, delivered with overt theatricality, oscillating in tone between the wholesome and the wholly horrific, did not land well even in her own party.

Charlie Kirk, founder of the far-right Turning Point USA youth group, said: “I’m sure Katie Britt is a sweet mom and person, but this speech is not what we need. Joe Biden just declared war on the American right and Katie Britt is talking like she’s hosting a cooking show, whispering about how Democrats ‘dont get it’.”

That pointed to widespread confusion over the setting for such a figure to give such an important speech: a kitchen.

As a Gallup poll showed 57% of American voters think the US would be better off if more women were in elected office, Alyssa Farah Griffin, a Trump aide turned never-Trumper, said: “Senator Katie Britt is a very impressive person … I do not understand the decision to put her in a KITCHEN for one of the most important speeches she’s ever given.”

so it appears that @SenKatieBritt is not just a bad actress but also a huge liar

this is what the Republican Party has become https://t.co/R8Lvx9mnOY

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) March 9, 2024

 

Congressional Republicans Gobbled Biden's Bait

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. 

David Frum at The Atlantic:

Not only did Republicans repeatedly heckle, jeer, and shout during President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address Tuesday night, but Biden was ready for them. In impromptu remarks not included in the prepared text of the speech, Biden rolled with the interruptions, using them to reinforce his message. Biden accused “some” Republicans of plotting to sunset Social Security and Medicare. When he got protests, he grinned and accepted them as a “unanimous” endorsement. “I welcome all converts,” he told them, recasting for the television audience the Republican hubbub as a sign of submission.

Partisanship, populism, and patriotism were his themes. The speech was strewn with traps carefully constructed to ensnare opponents. He opened with a tribute to bipartisanship, but the mechanics of his address were based on shrewd and unapologetic hyper-partisanship. He anticipated negative reactions in the chamber—and used them to reinforce his message.

Republicans Who Aren't Helping Their Cause

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.

Allan Smith at NBC:

Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., repeatedly interrupted and interjected during President Joe Biden's State of the Union address Tuesday night.

Greene was heard grumbling through the entire part of Biden's speech about Covid policy before she shouted a remark about women's sports when Biden mentioned new laws targeting transgender Americans and their families.

Boebert and Greene tried to start a "build the wall" chant — a reference to former President Donald Trump's calls to construct a wall across the U.S. southern border — when Biden referred to securing the border and reforming immigration law.

But the moment that stood out most was when Boebert shouted "13 of them" — referring to the 13 U.S. service members who died in an attack in Afghanistan during the U.S. withdrawal last year — when Biden discussed battlefield conditions that may contribute to veterans' developing cancers "that would put them in a flag-draped coffin."

Boebert's remark came just before Biden mentioned that one such veteran was his son Beau Biden, who served in Iraq and died of brain cancer in 2015.

Her remark prompted some boos from fellow lawmakers.

Jonathan Swan and Andrew Solender at Axios:

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has publicly swatted down a controversial tax proposal pitched by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, in an unusual airing of private tensions between the two senior Republicans.

Driving the news: Standing before a crowd of reporters at the Capitol, Tuesday afternoon, McConnell sentenced the Scott plan to death.

• "We will not have as part of our agenda a bill that raises taxes on half the American people and sunsets Social Security and Medicare within five years," McConnell said.
• "That will not be part of the Republican Senate Majority agenda. We will focus instead on what the American people are concerned about: inflation, energy, defense, the border and crime."

Behind the scenes: Scott infuriated McConnell and other top Republicans with his recent decision to release a policy agenda ahead of the midterms. The agenda, dubbed Scott's 11-point plan to "rescue America," contained controversial provisions that the Democrats are already turning into attack ads.

• The statement that put Republicans most on edge raised the prospect of new taxes on the poorest Americans: "All Americans should pay some income tax to have skin in the game, even if a small amount. Currently over half of Americans pay no income tax."

 

Looks like it took the Idaho GOP 3 days to decides that racism is bad after Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin gave speech to racists... https://t.co/88yCcT0IlS

— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast)

Looks like it took the Idaho GOP 3 days to decides that racism is bad after Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin gave speech to racists... https://t.co/88yCcT0IlS

— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) March 1, 2022

The Arizona Senate, in a bipartisan vote, has censured a Republican lawmaker for calling for violence against her political opponents, saying state Sen. Wendy Rogers "has damaged the reputation of the Arizona State Senate by her actions." https://t.co/sN5xhPzGJD

— NPR (@NPR) March 2, 2022

More on Rogers and other sickos here.

SOTU Omissions

 In Defying the Odds, we talk about issues that drove the 2016 campaign, and the forthcoming update brings the story up through 2018.

Philip Klein at The Washington Examiner:

" We must create a new standard of living for the 21st century," President Trump said at the outset of Tuesday's State of the Union address, later urging the joint session of Congress, "Tonight, I ask you to choose greatness." But over the course of a speech that spanned nearly 90 minutes, Trump completely ignored the biggest long-term threat to American greatness: the looming federal debt crisis.

When Trump took office in 2017, he inherited a substantial level of debt, which accumulated during President Barack Obama's two terms as the fallout from Great Recession coincided with the retirement of Baby Boomers. On the month Trump was sworn in, the Congressional Budget Office predicted that the debt held by the public would reach $24.9 trillion by 2027. Last week, two years after being sworn in, the CBO now projects public debt of $25.9 trillion in 2027.

The CBO noted that by 2029, "federal debt would be higher as a percentage of GDP than at any point since just after World War II — and heading still higher." Unlike World War II, which was an extraordinary event after which the U.S. was able to pay down its debt over time, the twin problems of the aging of the population and rising healthcare costs mean that absent serious reform, the problem is always going to get worse.

Trump also ignored what is perhaps the greatest international threat.  From the Senate testimony of Dan Coats, Director of National Intelligence:

Our adversaries and strategic competitors probably already are looking to the 2020 US elections as an opportunity to advance their interests. More broadly, US adversaries and strategic competitors almost certainly will use online influence operations to try to weaken democratic institutions, undermine US alliances and partnerships, and shape policy outcomes in the United States and elsewhere. We expect our adversaries and strategic competitors to refine their capabilities and add new tactics as they learn from each other’s experiences, suggesting the threat landscape could look very different in 2020 and future elections. 

From Trump?  Not one word.

Trump told supporters 40-50% of speech will be about foreign policy. When asked if the deficit will be mentioned in #SOTU speech, chief of staff Mulvaney said “nobody cares,” per attendee https://t.co/YeBTSdF3HX

— Tara Palmeri (@tarapalmeri) February 5, 2019

Five Years Ago, Conservatives Were Okay with Cancelling the State of the Union

In Defying the Odds, we discuss polarization in the 2016 election.  In response to the shutdown, Speaker Pelosi suggested postponing the State of the Union, or having POTUS deliver it in writing.  Trump supporters denounced her statement. But a few years ago, some conservatives suggested the same thing.

On November 20, 2014, Joel Pollak wrote at Breitbart:

Congressional Republicans are searching for ways–short of impeachment or shutting down the government–to respond to President Barack Obama’s seizure of arbitrary power over immigration law and enforcement. One way would be to cancel the State of the Union address next year, so that the elected representatives of the people do not have to listen to, or applaud, a man who is violating his oath of office and governing as a tyrant.

On November 21, 2014, Ace of Spades blogged:

Yesterday we saw a number of ideas floated about how to respond....rescission, lawsuits, de-fundingand withholding votes on nominees to name a few on the table. There's one idea I'd like to add that is in many ways symbolic but that would focus the nation on the seriousness of this problem, do not invite Obama to address a joint session of Congress to deliver the State of the Union address.

The Constitution simply requires that "He shall from time to time give to the Congress information of the state of the union, and recommend to their consideration such measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient." Nothing requires that he do so in person. The modern in person State of The Union dates back to Woodrow Wilson but Truman, Eisenhower and Nixon all gave written reports as was the custom from Thomas Jefferson to Wilson.

And Presidents don't simply show up whenever they please to address the Congress, they must be formally invited. That's where Boehner and McConnell can strike a blow for the legislature...simply don't invite him.

On November 25, 2014, Jeremy Peters reported at NYT:

“Yes, there’s a risk to overreacting, but there’s a risk to underreacting as well,” said Rich Lowry, the editor of National Review. “And I fear that’s the way the congressional leadership is leaning.”

Mr. Lowry suggested one way Congress could react. “If I were John Boehner,” he said, referring to the House speaker, “I’d say to the president: ‘Send us your State of the Union in writing. You’re not welcome in our chamber.’ ”

SOTU Reax: Meh!

In  Defying the Odds, we discuss attitudes toward Trump in the 2016 race.

Ryan Struyk at CNN:

Almost half of Americans who watched President Donald Trump's first State of the Union address -- 48% -- say they had a "very positive" impression of the speech, down from 57% of speech-watchers after his first address to match Barack Obama's rating after his first State of the Union address, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

It's the lowest net positive rating for a State of the Union address since at least 1998, when CNN first asked the question. There is no equivalent poll for addresses before 1998.

Related: Full poll results

Some important caveats: This survey reflects the views of only those who watched the speech, not of all Americans. The poll was conducted among a group of Americans who said in prior interviews that they planned to watch the speech and were willing to be contacted after its conclusion.

People who choose to watch a political speech tend to be more supportive of the speaker than the general population; this sample was about 7 points more Republican than the entire American population.

Words You Won't Find in the State of the Union

Last night, the president gave a State of the Union address that emphasized broad themes instead of specific policy proposals. In such a speech, of course, a chief executive cannot mention every single issue and problem.  Nevertheless, certain names and words were conspicuous by their absence:

Crimea
Israel
Libya
Egypt
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Mexico
Transparency
Human rights
Disability
NATO
Army
Navy
Air Force
Marines
Drone
Chicago
Baltimore
San Bernardino
Homeland Security

State of the Union: Denouncing Doom and Gloom

Nick Timiraos reports at The Wall Street Journal:

President Barack Obama plans to offer an upbeat look at America’s potential in his final State of the Union address, Chief of Staff Denis McDonough said Sunday, moving to draw a contrast with what he called the “doom and gloom” of Republican presidential contenders.

It is a familiar State of the Union tactic:

• "As we look at America today, we find ourselves challenged by new problems. But we also find a record of progress to confound the professional criers of doom and prophets of despair." Richard M. Nixon, January 30, 1974
• "You know, I do think there has been too much pessimism. Sound banks should be making sound loans now, and interest rates should be lower, now." -- George H. W. Bush, January 29, 1991
• "A year ago, Americans' faith in their governmental process was steadily declining. Six out of 10 Americans were saying they were pessimistic about their future. A new kind of defeatism was heard. Some said our domestic problems were uncontrollable, that we had to learn to live with this seemingly endless cycle of high inflation and high unemployment. There were also pessimistic predictions about the relationship between our administration and this Congress. It was said we could never work together. Well, those predictions were wrong. The record is clear, and I believe that history will remember this as an era of American renewal, remember this administration as an administration of change, and remember this Congress as a Congress of destiny". Ronald Reagan, January 26, 1982.
• "The heart of America is strong; it's good and true. The cynics were wrong; America never was a sick society. We're seeing rededication to bedrock values of faith, family, work, neighborhood, peace, and freedom—values that help bring us together as one people, from the youngest child to the most senior citizen." Ronald Reagan, January 25, 1984
• "As we look at these challenges, we must never give in to the belief that America is in decline or that our culture is doomed to unravel. The American people know better than that. We have proven the pessimists wrong before, and we will do it again."  -- George W. Bush, State of the Union, January 31, 2006.

Ironically, President Obama was one of the naysayers back in 2008.  In reponse to President Bush's State of the Union, the Illinois senator took a distinctly gloomy view:

Tonight, for the seventh long year, the American people heard a State of the Union that didn't reflect the America we see, and didn't address the challenges we face. But what it did do was give us an urgent reminder of why it's so important to turn the page on the failed politics and policies of the past, and change the status quo in Washington so we can finally start making progress for ordinary Americans. Tonight's State of the Union was full of the same empty rhetoric the American people have come to expect from this President. 

The Fight for the Middle Class

At The Daily Beast, Lloyd Green writes:

Substantively, the SOTU was a speech that a major part of the country liked, even if it made House Speaker John Boehner and the Republicans cringe. For the Republicans, that’s a problem, especially if the only thing Republicans have to offer the middle class is entitlement reform, as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell suggested in the run-up to the State of the Union.

In a pre-SOTU statement, McConnell beseeched the President to “allow us to save and strengthen Medicare,” and to “cooperate with both parties to save Social Security.” In other words, make sure both parties have their hands on the dagger and no one will get blamed.

McConnell’s prescription is a recipe for alienating the GOP’s electoral base, which is chock full of retirees and voters north of 50. Green eye shades and the worn eraser of an accountant’s pencil don’t win elections, and angry seniors can wreak havoc on presidential aspirations.

...

Rather than gunning for Medicare, the Republicans should pick up on some of threads in Obama’s speech, while taking a hard line against tax hikes. The GOP should bash the President for looking to undercut saving for college and 529 accounts, and also push for a reduction in payroll taxes. The fact is that most Americans pay more in Medicare and Social Security taxes than in income taxes. And if wonks and purists criticize simultaneously sparing benefits while cutting taxes, just point out that being pro-middle class and pro-worker is about rewarding their efforts and lessening their burdens.

Republicans should seize on the President’s invitation to fund precision medicine to combat cancer and diabetes, and expand that war to fight Alzheimer’s and autism. They should also embrace rebuilding our infrastructure. In addition to new jobs, infrastructure is a cornerstone of commerce. If building a rail system was good enough for Abraham Lincoln, and forging a national highway system was all right with Ike, then the GOP should treat infrastructure as part of its own patrimony.

Cruz Do-Over

At Mediaite, Tina Nguyen reports:

Unlike many of his colleagues, who gave pre-written speeches and taped them on sets, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) decided to record his response to Obama’s State of the Union Address outside the House Chamber, next to a statue of Texas hero Stephen Austin, using the iPhone of some staffer who forgot to edit the video before posting it on YouTube.

The original video was quickly deleted because it showed Cruz, the former Solicitor General of Texas and champion college debater, successfully improvising an eloquent response, seamlessly hitting a series of prepared talking points criticizing the Obama administration…for about forty seconds.

And then he needed a redo.

Ah, the perils of politicians going without a script.

Watch here

The GOP on SOTU: English and Spanish

Ed O'Keefe and Robert Costa report at The Washington Post:

President Obama gave one State of the Union Address Tuesday night in English that was translated in real-time by Spanish-language broadcasters including Univision, Telemundo and others.

Republicans, however, relied on two lawmakers to deliver their formal response. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) delivered one in English. Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.) responded in Spanish.

Both lawmakers are new to Washington and were selected by party leaders to showcase fast-rising fresh faces. They delivered similar messages that stressed unique life stories, their commitment to family and how the GOP Congress plans to govern in the next year.

But at a few subtle moments, Ernst and Curbelo deviated from each other. Ernst emphasized national security. Curbelo stressed his experience working on education issues and expressed hope that Republicans can work with Obama on immigration reform. Ernst never muttered the word "immigration."

Six Reasons Why the State of the Union Won't Make a Damn Bit of Difference

Many pundits are speculating about the possible impact of the president's State of the Union Address.

Here are six reasons why it won't have one.

1. Even the best of presidents in the best of times can seldom move public opinion with the "bully pulpit."
2. It's not the best of times for President Obama:  more people disapprove than approve of his performance.
3. Many Americans think that "you can keep it" was a deliberate lie.  People don't believe perceived liars.
4. President Obama is in his second term, and second terms usually suck.
5. Much of this year's agenda consists of stuff he could not do last year.  Leftovers get rancid.
6. Last year's speech got low ratings.  And as with last year, there is plenty of other stuff on TV.

Slow Growth Will Undercut Obama Strategy

At The New Republic, Ruy Teixeira offers a smart liberal critique of Obama strategy:

It seems to consist of emphasizing particular fights like immigration reform, gun control, same sex marriage, and climate change that appeal most strongly to different elements of the Obama coalition. This strategy does have merit. The thought is that even if all these fights don’t yield legislative victories (and they won’t so long as Republicans control part of Congress), they will nevertheless serve to generate more enthusiasm among key parts of the coalition, without imposing much of an electoral cost. Moreover, these fights are all substantively important in policy terms, so any victories attained will be important breakthroughs.

But the strategy has serious limitations. To begin with, even if these issues do little damage to Democrats’ standing among white working class voters, they will also do little to win their support. These voters are primarily looking for material improvements in their lives, improvements that are not possible without strong economic growth and the jobs, tight labor markets, and rising incomes such growth would bring. In a low-growth environment, these voters will remain exceptionally pessimistic and inclined to blame Democrats and government for their lack of upward mobility.

Even more serious, core groups of the Obama coalition will be weakened by continued slow growth. Obama was well-supported by these groups in 2012, but a sluggish economic environment, where unemployment continues pushing 8 percent, will try these voters’ patience. How much enthusiasm will Hispanics, blacks, youth, single women, etc., whose unemployment rates are considerably above the national average, continue to have for a party that cannot do more to improve economic conditions? Attrition in support will be inevitable in such a scenario and the opportunity to consolidate a dominant coalition will be lost.

American Crossroads, SOTU, and MST3K

No Bump

Gallup reports:

Gallup Daily tracking finds no change in President Obama's job approval rating after his State of the Union address. The president's 50% average for the week ending Sunday, Jan. 30, matches the prior week's rating, which was the highest weekly average for Obama since May.

Those who watched or saw coverage of the president's State of the Union address on Jan. 25 generally gave it positive reviews. The speech does not, however, appear to have significantly affected Obama's job approval rating. Obama averaged 50% for the five days preceding his speech (Jan. 20-24) and 50% for the five days afterward (Jan. 26-30).