- New Mexico
- New Hampshire
If the election took place today and these states went Republican, the president would still win but by a narrow 286-252 electoral-vote margin. And if he also lost North Carolina (which currently has an even split in job approval), he would be ahead by a Bush-thin 271-267.
It is entirely plausible that he could narrowly lose the national popular vote and win the electoral college. In that scenario, might Democrats lose their enthusiasm for the National Popular Vote compact?