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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Monday, August 8, 2011

Obama Approval in the States

Gallup has state-by-state presidential job approval data. President Obama is above 50 percent in 16 states and the District of Columbia. But his disapproval rating exceeds his approval rating in 29 states, including 8 that he carried in 2008:
  • Virginia
  • New Mexico
  • Ohio
  • Nevada
  • Colorado
  • Oregon
  • Indiana
  • New Hampshire
If the election took place today and these states went Republican, the president would still win but by a narrow 286-252 electoral-vote margin. And if he also lost North Carolina (which currently has an even split in job approval), he would be ahead by a Bush-thin 271-267.

It is entirely plausible that he could narrowly lose the national popular vote and win the electoral college. In that scenario, might Democrats lose their enthusiasm for the National Popular Vote compact?