Iran Aftermath

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.

A brief op-ed that originally appeared (in Spanish) at La Tercera:

 The American airstrikes on Iran may have caused severe damage to the country’s nuclear program.  But they will probably have little impact on domestic politics in the United States.

 American voters seldom care about international issues except when American lives or economic interests are at stake.  Events in the Middle East capture public attention only if they involve hostages, terror attacks, or oil shortages.  Fortunately, the bombing has not had any serious material consequences for the United States – at least, not yet.

Even when Americans do think about events in other countries, their opinions increasingly fall along party lines, with Republicans on one side and Democrats on the other.  According to a recent poll from CBS News, 85 percent of Republicans approve of the Iran attacks, while 87 percent of Democrats disapprove.

        

This partisan entrenchment means that presidents cannot move public opinion very much, even when they achieve major successes.  For a decade after the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, Osama bin Laden eluded American efforts to bring him to justice.  In 2011, under President Obama’s leadership, U.S. commandos finally killed him.  But in public opinion polls, Obama’s approval rating rose only a few percentage points for a few weeks.  The following year, he became the first president to win reelection while losing the popular vote share.

So far, the extent of the bombing damage in Iran remains uncertain, which means that each side will have its own interpretation of what happened.  Republicans will echo President Trump’s claim that he obliterated Iran’s nuclear program.  Democrats will say that Trump dishonestly exaggerated his success.  What is clear is that the 2026 congressional elections in the United States are very likely to hinge on other issues, such as the state of the economy.

Tillis

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Annie Karni at NYT:

Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, announced on Sunday that he would not seek re-election next year, a day after President Trump threatened to back a primary challenger against him because Mr. Tillis had said he opposed the bill carrying Mr. Trump’s domestic agenda.

...

In January, Mr. Trump made it clear that he was contemplating finding a primary challenger to Mr. Tillis after the senator expressed grave reservations about his nominee for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth. Mr. Tillis eventually fell in line and backed the president’s pick, surrendering to Mr. Trump’s demands for loyalty.

Mr. Tillis in his statement blamed the lack of any middle ground in Congress on both parties, pointing to the recent departures of Senators Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, both conservative-leaning Democrats before Ms. Sinema switched her affiliation to Independent, without naming them.

“When people see independent thinking on the other side, they cheer,” he said. “But when those very same people see independent thinking coming from their side, they scorn, ostracize and even censure them.”

 

Earlier today...

Donna King at Carolina Journal:

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis is under fire from President Donald Trump, who announced via social media this weekend that he may support a primary challenger to Tillis in the 2026 Senate race. The move comes after Tillis opposed advancing Trump’s high-profile legislative proposal—the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—in a narrowly divided US Senate vote.

In posts on Truth Social, Trump blasted Tillis for what he called a “BIG MISTAKE,” saying, “Numerous people have come forward wanting to run in the Primary against ‘Senator Thom’ Tillis. I will be meeting with them over the coming weeks looking for someone to properly represent the Great People of North Carolina.” In several posts, Trump accused Tillis of grandstanding and being “missing in action.”


...


A Victory Insights poll conducted last summer shows Tillis trailing far behind Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law and a Wilmington native, in a hypothetical GOP primary. Lara Trump leads with 65% support among likely Republican voters, compared to just 11% for Tillis.

On the Democrat side, former Congressman Wiley Nickel has already thrown his hat in the ring for Tillis’ seat, but most eyes are on former Gov. Roy Cooper to potentially challenge Tillis. A Democrat with statewide name recognition and deep fundraising capabilities, polling indicates Cooper could have a slight advantage over Republican contenders in a general election matchup.

In the Victory poll, a matchup between Cooper and Tillis shows the former governor leading the senator, 45.1%-44.1%. If Cooper were to face Lara Trump, his edge is slightly larger, 45.5%-44.3%. Annie Karni at NYT:

 

Validated Voter Survey

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics

Hannah Hartig, Scott Keeter, Andrew Daniller, and Ted Van Green at Pew:

In his third run for president in 2024, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 1.5 percentage points overall, winning 312 Electoral College votes and the national popular vote for the first time.

Trump won with a voter coalition that was more racially and ethnically diverse than in 2020 or 2016, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of the 2024 electorate.

• Among Hispanic voters, Trump battled to near parity in 2024 (51% Harris, 48% Trump) after losing to Joe Biden 61%-36% in 2020.
• Trump won 15% of Black voters – up from 8% four years earlier.
• Trump also did better among Asian voters. While a majority of Asian voters (57%) backed Harris, 40% supported Trump. This was a narrower margin than Biden’s in 2020 (70% to 30%).

These shifts were largely the result of differences in which voters turned out in the 2020 and 2024 elections. As in the past, a relatively small share of voters switched which party’s candidate they supported.

In 2024, Trump benefited from higher turnout among those who voted for him in 2020. He also held an edge over Harris among voters who did not vote four years earlier – a group that was considerably more diverse than those who voted in both elections.

And while Trump improved his performance among several groups in 2024, many of the demographic patterns in voting preferences that have dominated American politics for the last several decades remained evident last November:

Educational divide. In each of his campaigns, Trump has held an edge among voters without four-year college degrees. But his 14-point advantage among noncollege voters (56% to 42%) was double his margin in 2016. Harris won voters with college degrees by 57% to 41%, but that was smaller than Biden’s lead among this group in 2020.

A wider urban-rural gap. Trump won voters living in rural areas by 40 points (69%-29%), which was higher than his margins in 2020 or 2016. Harris’ advantage among voters living in urban areas was nearly as large (65% voted for Harris, 33% Trump).

Continued differences by religious attendance. Nearly two-thirds of voters who attend religious services monthly or more (64%) voted for Trump, while only about a third (34%) supported Harris. Harris held a narrower advantage (56%-43%) among the larger group of voters who attend services less frequently.

Methodology: 

 For this analysis, we surveyed 8,942 U.S. citizens ages 18 and older who are members of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP). We verified their turnout in the five general elections from 2016 to 2024 using commercial voter files that collect publicly available official state turnout records.

Yogurt, Not Wine

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.  It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Adam Wren at Politico Playbook:

Democrats are licking their chops about the prospect of running against the GOP megabill in next year’s midterms.

Polling on the megabill has already sent a chill down the spine of many in-cycle Republicans. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who faces a fraught reelection bid next year, has told his Republican colleagues the megabill’s cuts to Medicaid could be the party’s Obamacare — meaning it could yield major defeats for Republicans, much as backlash to the Affordable Care Act hurt Democrats in the 2010 cycle.

“It’s a slam dunk messaging opportunity for Democrats,” Democratic strategist Mike Nellis told Playbook last night. “It’s very easy to explain how it’s going to have a direct and immediate impact on people’s lives. They’re going to cut Medicaid and other critical government programs that people rely on to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy.”

On message: Future possible Democratic presidential candidates from Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are railing against it, homing in on the Medicaid cuts in particular. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear told Playbook that the megabill risks closing 35 rural hospitals in his home state, “forcing people to drive hours just to see their primary care doctor and is estimated to eliminate the jobs of 20,000 health care workers” in Kentucky.

Expect to hear more like this: “It will force children to go hungry in a country that grows enough food to feed all Americans,” Beshear said. “And it doesn’t even work; it adds trillions to our national debt while blowing a hole in the budgets of all 50 states. It’s wrong, cruel and callous.”

“The ads, the tweets, the press releases write themselves,” Nellis told Playbook. “Easy for everybody to get behind opposing it, regardless of the district dynamics.”

Burgess Everett at Semafor:

If Senate Republicans can close up all their outstanding issues on Trump’s megabill, expect them to vote basically immediately.

“This bill is like yogurt, not wine,” one senator told Semafor.

The Fall of Dynasties

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a discussion of state and local politics.

At Politico, Alexander Burns notes that Andrew Cuomo's primary defeat is part of a larger pattern:

In the past few years, we have seen Democratic primary voters reject members of political dynasties once seen as nearly undefeatable, including a Kennedy in Massachusetts, a Daley in Illinois and a Graham in Florida. When Tammy Murphy, the first lady of New Jersey, attempted to swoop into a Senate seat with the help of her husband’s machine, she was blown out of the race by an insurgent who embodied generational change, now-Sen. Andy Kim.

On the right, Donald Trump’s political movement has purged the party’s most storied dynasties. Republican voters spurned members of the Bush family, Jeb and his son George P., in primary elections. The Cheney family’s titanic stature in Wyoming — and a direct-to-camera appeal from Dick Cheney himself — could not save former Rep. Liz Cheney from a primary challenger in 2022. A scheme by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to install his spouse, Casey, as his successor appears to have unraveled before it began.

General election voters have done their part, declining to elect a Pryor in Arkansas, a Landrieu in Louisiana, a Nunn and a Carter in Georgia, a Laxalt in Nevada, a Casey in Pennsylvania and a Clinton on the national ballot.

Mamdani

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a discussion of state and local politics.

Politico Playbook:

New York delivered a true political earthquake last night as Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year-old state assembly member and democratic socialist, stormed to victory in the city’s Democratic mayoral primary. Mamdani, a rank outsider before his social media-driven campaign gained traction with voters in the final weeks of the race, swept aside former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, earning more than 43 percent of the first-place votes. He should be confirmed as the Dem nominee next week, once ranked-choice votes have been counted.

Cuomo crushed: “Tonight was not our night,” said Cuomo, a once-towering figure of New York politics who had led in almost every opinion poll, massively outraised his rivals and racked up a string of high-profile endorsements ahead of Election Day. “I want to applaud [Mamdani] for a really smart, good and impactful campaign. Tonight is his night. He deserves it. He won.”
...

Indeed: This campaign neatly mirrored the Democrats’ generational and political divide so apparent on the national stage, writes POLITICO’s Jeff Coltin. “A young, inexperienced socialist running on a hopeful message with the backing of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, versus a 67-year-old, three-term former New York governor who worked in Bill Clinton’s Cabinet and got the ex-president’s endorsement in the race’s waning days.” And in New York City, at least, there was only one winner.

Bring on the hot takes: But for plenty of observers, this wasn’t about identity. Mamdani has promised free buses, free child care, city-run grocery stores, rent freezes, wealth taxes and more. And whatever you think of those kinds of pledges, there’s a running theme that plenty of Dems believe was the real lesson from last night: Mamdani won by focusing relentlessly on the cost of living — the issue poll after poll shows voters care about most. (It’s still the economy, stupid.)

You want more hot takes? There are plenty to choose from. Mamdani won by getting out and talking to people — unlike Cuomo, who relied on ads, endorsements and the like. … Mamdani won with social media buzz, Gen Z-friendly Pop Crave videos and so on — unlike Cuomo, who ran as a traditional Democrat and received a convoluted NYT nonendorsement. … Mamdani won by running as an insurgent and being prepared to criticize Israel over Gaza — unlike Cuomo who has defended PM Benjamin Netanayahu to the hilt.

Pottymouth Donny

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. 

"The tone with which he dropped it reveals that he really might have thought he had something there. He thought he had his Nobel Prize and it's running into the reality of a centuries-old conflict."@Timodc and @samstein talk Trump's f-bomb: pic.twitter.com/9j46teL2Qh

— The Bulwark (@BulwarkOnline) June 24, 2025

Increased use of foul language is a symptom of dementia.

 In October, Peter Baker and Dylan Freedman reported at NYT:

Mr. Trump has always been more prone than any of his predecessors in the White House to publicly use what were once called dirty words. But in his third campaign for the presidency, his speeches have grown coarser and coarser. Altogether, according to a computer search, Mr. Trump has used words that would have once gotten a kid’s mouth washed out with soap at least 140 times in public this year. Counting tamer four-letter words like “damn” and “hell,” he has cursed in public at least 1,787 times in 2024.

What minimal self-restraint Mr. Trump once showed in his public discourse has evaporated. A recent New York Times analysis of his public comments this year showed that he uses such language 69 percent more often than he did when he first ran for president in 2016. He sometimes acknowledges that he knows he should not but quickly adds that he cannot help himself.

The Day After

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it deals with the domestic politics of foreign policy. Last night, the US bombed Iran.

 

Five things to remember about war:

1. Many things reported with confidence in the first hours and days will turn out not to be true

2. Whatever they say, the people who start wars are often thinking chiefly about domestic politics

3. The rationale given for a war will change…

— Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder) June 22, 2025

Vance Slimes LA

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. 

Salvador Hernandez, Seema Mehta, and Christopher Buchanan at LAT:

“What happened here was a tragedy,” Vance told reporters. “You had people who were doing the simple job of enforcing the law, and you had rioters, egged on by the governor and the mayor, making it harder for them to do their job.”

Although Newsom and Bass have criticized the immigration raids, which led to protests and sporadic violent attacks against law enforcement officials, both have repeatedly urged demonstrators to remain peaceful.

Bass, who was not invited to meet with Vance, dismissed his description of what has unfolded in Los Angeles over the last two weeks.

“Unfortunately, the vice president did not take time to learn about our city and understand that our city is a city of immigrants from every country and continent on the planet,” Bass said at a news conference Friday evening. “But then again, he did need to justify the hundreds of millions of wasted taxpayer dollars that were wasted in the performance of a stunt.

“How dare you say that city officials encourage violence,” Bass said. “We kept the peace.”

Newsom weighed in repeatedly on the social media platform X, notably about Vance calling Sen. Alex Padilla “Jose” during his remarks.

Padilla was dragged to the ground by federal law enforcement officers and briefly detained when he attempted to ask U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem a question during a news conference earlier this week.

“I was hoping Jose Padilla would be here to ask a question, but unfortunately I guess he decided not to show up because there wasn’t a theater, and that’s all it is,” Vance said.

A spokesperson for Padilla responded that Vance, as a former colleague of Padilla in the U.S. Senate, “knows better.”

“He should be more focused on demilitarizing our city than taking cheap shots,” spokesperson Tess Oswald posted on X. “Another unserious comment from an unserious administration.”

Trump v. Juneteenth

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. 

Aishvarya Kavi at NYT:

Juneteenth, the holiday that marks the end of slavery in the United States, has been celebrated at the White House each June 19 since it was enshrined into law four years ago. But on Thursday, it went unmarked by the president — except for a post on social media in which he said he would get rid of some “non-working holidays.”

“Soon we’ll end up having a holiday for every once working day of the year,” Mr. Trump said in mangled syntax, not mentioning Juneteenth by name nor acknowledging that Thursday was a federal holiday. “It must change if we are going to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, indicated to reporters earlier in the day that she was not aware of any plans by Mr. Trump to sign a holiday proclamation. In the past week alone, he’d issued proclamations commemorating Father’s Day, Flag Day and National Flag Week, and the 250th anniversary of the Battle of Bunker Hill — none of which are among the 11 annual federal holidays.

In response to a reporter’s question about Juneteenth, Ms. Leavitt acknowledged that Thursday was “a federal holiday,” but noted that White House staff had shown up to work during a briefing that focused primarily on the matter of whether Mr. Trump would order strikes on Iran.

Social Security Involvency Just Eight Years Away

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. 

 Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:

The Social Security and Medicare Trustees released their annual reports, today, highlighting the precarious financial states of the programs. The Trustees project that both the Social Security retirement trust fund and the Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund are just 8 years from insolvency, and will require timely trust fund solutions.

Full analyses of the reports will be published soon. In this short analysis, we show the Trustees project that:

• Social Security’s Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will be insolvent in 2033, or 2034 if funds are reallocated from the disability (SSDI) trust fund.
• Medicare’s Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund will deplete its reserves by 2033.
• Over the next 75 years, Social Security faces a shortfall of 3.82 percent of taxable payroll, while the HI trust fund faces a shortfall of 0.42 percent of payroll.
• Total Medicare costs are projected to rise from 3.8 percent of GDP in 2024 to 6.7 percent by 2099, or 8.8 percent under the Chief Actuary’s alternative scenario.

The looming insolvency of Social Security’s retirement program will lead to a 23 percent across-the-board benefit cut when today’s 59-year-olds reach the Full Retirement Age and when today’s youngest retirees turn 70. On a theoretically combined basis, beneficiaries will face a 19 percent benefit cut just one year later.

One Big Fiasco

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start. Trump and his congressional supporters are on track to blow up the federal debt.

CBO:

The Congressional Budget Office and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) previously reported that H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, would increase the primary deficit by $2.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period.[1] That estimate reflects a $3.7 trillion reduction in revenues and a $1.3 trillion reduction in noninterest outlays.[2] It does not account for how the bill would affect the economy.

Under House Rule XIII(8), H.R. 1 is classified as major legislation and CBO and JCT are required, to the extent practicable, to account for the budgetary effects of changes in the economy resulting from the bill. CBO and JCT have now had time to complete that analysis and estimate the following relative to CBO’s January 2025 baseline:

• The economic effects of H.R. 1 would decrease the primary deficit by $85 billion over the 2025-2034 period, primarily reflecting an increase in economic output; and
• The bill would increase interest rates, which would boost interest payments on the baseline projection of federal debt by $441 billion.

Accounting for those budgetary effects, CBO’s estimate under House Rule XIII(8) is that H.R. 1 would increase deficits by $2.8 trillion over the 2025-2034 period (see Table 1).

First time I've seen a tax cut so poorly designed that the dynamic score RAISES the cost by $356 billion.

The infinitesimal growth revenues are dwarfed by the rising inflation and $441 billion in interest costs from higher interest rates. pic.twitter.com/mIfvIG7Qfd

— Jessica Riedl 🧀 🇺🇦 (@JessicaBRiedl) June 17, 2025

Tulsi Under the Bus

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start

Politico Playbook:

This is a president who campaigned for years on ending American involvement in overseas wars; a man who, in 2011 and 2012, mockingly claimed then-President Barack Obama was about to start a war with Iran just to distract from his own failings. Only a couple of months ago, his own director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, said Iran is “not building a nuclear weapon.” And this is the self-styled “dealmaker-in-chief.” Is he really going to flip it all around with a Middle East bombing campaign

Q: "Tulsi Gabbard testified in March that the intelligence community said Iran wasn't building a nuclear weapon."

President Trump: "I don't care what she said. I think they were very close to having one." pic.twitter.com/6KTye52xP9

— CSPAN (@cspan) June 17, 2025

Split Screen

 Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.

From Waging Nonviolence:

April Rubin, Rebecca Falconer at Axios:

Millions of protesters across the U.S. took to the streets in demonstrations against the Trump administration on Saturday, in stark counter-programming to the president's Washington, D.C., military parade that evening.

Why it matters: "No Kings" protest organizers said the widespread movement marked the biggest single-day anti-President Trump protest during his second administration.

...

State of play: More than 5 million people took part in "No Kings" demonstrations in over 2,100 cities and towns across the country, with an additional 300 "Kick Out the Clowns" rallies being held.Philadelphia saw more than 100,000 attendees and Chicago 75,000, while smaller towns such as Pentland, Michigan, reported 400 in a town of 800, organizers said.

Newsmax is saying about 10,000 there. That’s small for some protest rallies today and a huge waste of our military $$$ when the world is on fire… https://t.co/AP7Rh2NWu3

— Barbara Comstock (@BarbaraComstock) June 14, 2025

The Padilla Incident

 Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start

In a disturbing and unprecedented move, FBI agents grabbed the sitting California Senator, dragged him out of the room, and shoved him to the ground, handcuffing him even after he identified himself. Video Courtesy of the Office of Senator Alex Padilla. pic.twitter.com/s5ON5cTxXs

— Santa Monica Mirror (@SMMirror) June 13, 2025

Padilla: From the moment I entered the building, I'm being escorted by a member of the National Guard and an FBI agent. I asked, well, since we're waiting, can we go listen in to the press conference? They escort me over to the press conference. They opened the door for me. pic.twitter.com/R3ur8msJKh

— Acyn (@Acyn) June 12, 2025

Michael Luciano at Mediaite:

While Padilla’s treatment understandably received all the attention, lost in the incident was a pledge from Noem that the federal government will “liberate” Los Angeles from the leaders the city’s voters elected to represent them:

The Department of Homeland Security and the officers and the agencies and the departments and the military people that are working on this operation will continue to sustain and increase our operations in this city. We are not going away. We are staying here to liberate this city from the socialists and the burdensome leadership that this governor and that this mayor had placed on this country and what they have tried to insert into the city.

It was at that point, Padilla interrupted and was physically pushed out of the room and into a hallway, where he was handcuffed.

Reaching Latino Men

 Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the role of Latino voters.

 Senator Ruben Gallego spoke with David Frum:

One of the things we knew instinctively, because growing up Latino and working class: Latino men do not intently watch Univision, Telemundo. They don’t intently follow politics. They largely are disconnected from the normal avenues of—well, I would say that normal people kind of consume news and political news.

And one of the things that I emphasized on my campaign early on is a nontraditional way to reach these men, because you’ve got to understand the way these guys are. I mean, when I was in construction, I would wake up at 6 a.m., go to the site. Hopefully, it’d be done by 3 p.m. but probably not. So maybe you’re back at home by 5 p.m. You’re dirty as hell. You’re smelly as hell. You’re jumping in the shower, and then maybe, you know, you’re in time—you’ve made it home in time for dinner, right? You’re sitting down to dinner, and then you have probably a couple hours before you zonk out to start the next day.

Do you want to spend that time watching the news? Do you want to spend that time talking politics? No. You want to spend time with your family or with your friends, because your day sucked, and it’s going to suck again tomorrow. And so you do this rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat.

So where are they getting all their information from? Well, a couple places. Number one, they’re getting it from their other coworkers at worksites—which by the way, people forget when it comes to Latino men, the people they’re most likely to work with besides other Latino men are white working-class men, right? And white working-class men are very much politically involved and have a lot of political information that they’re getting. And they’re sharing it with their Latino coworkers, right?

And number two, they’re living off their phones through different social media, whether it’s Instagram, Snapchat, or all this kind of stuff, Twitter. So one of the things that we emphasize is trying to figure out how to get a message, a vibe, about who I was to these Latino male voters early on, so that way they understood, like, Ruben Gallego is a Democrat. Ruben Gallego says he’s for the working class. But then we also had a very strong cultural attachment. Like, He understands me. He actually worked at factories, worked in construction, understands the dignity of work, the responsibility of a man to his family, to provide for his family, and how important that is to me as a man.

And that kind of stuff, we are afraid to approach to get these men to start considering us as Democrats. And then, because we never talk about it, we never give them the dignity of allowing them to be family leaders and not making them feel bad about being family leaders. And then we’re surprised when, year after year, we don’t continue to have this conversation with us, they keep on moving away from us. And it’s a dumb trade-off, because we continue to do that because we think that somehow we’re going to piss off female voters.

And I don’t think that’s the case. Female voters are worried about their sons or daughters and their husbands. They’re worried about the fact that they’re becoming less social. They’re worried about the fact that they’re not actually being productive in life. And they want to have good husbands—heck, they want to have good ex-husbands that are involved with their kids’ lives, and they’re making good pay and paying their child support, things of that nature.

But for some reason, the Democrats have continued this trade-off, and it’s going to continue going until we realize: Making sure [of] people’s economic needs will cross all racial barriers and, if you do it rightly, will also cross these gender gaps that we’re seeing.

Newsom v. Trump

 Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.

Trump likes riots.  He federalized National Guard units and sent them to Los Angeles, hoping to escalate the disorder.  He got his wish.

JACK BLANCHARD with DASHA BURNS  at POLITICO:

Let’s be clear: These are precisely the sorts of scenes — U.S. troops assisting with immigration raids in liberal cities — that Dems have feared since Trump’s election. They are also precisely the target of California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s request for an emergency injunction against the way Trump is deploying military force in his state, per POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein. District Judge Charles Breyer — the Bill Clinton-appointed brother of former Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer — will hear that case tomorrow. It could be quite a moment.

We need to talk about Gavin: Newsom, for his part, delivered a pretty extraordinary address to the nation last night, in which he sought to position himself as the leader of America’s anti-Trump opposition. Speaking directly to camera in a crisp, eight-minute monologue, Newsom denounced Trump’s aggressive deployment of ICE officers and military forces in LA — before raising his eyes to horizons far beyond his own state.

“This isn’t just about protests here in Los Angeles,” Newsom told America. “This is about all of us. This is about you. California may be first, but it clearly will not end here. Other states are next. Democracy is next. Democracy is under assault before our eyes.”

Going viral: The video is getting plenty of love from Dems online — hitting more than a million views on the MeidasTouch YouTube channel inside three hours last night. And it was on the front pages of both the NYT and WaPo early this morning. “I for one am very happy to see somebody that isn’t afraid to speak up,” Ana Navarro told CNN. “I have been so thirsty for somebody that is not cowardly, bending the knee and selling out to Donald Trump as he does all of this to America.” Even the WSJ describes Newsom as “the leader of the opposition.”

This is all fascinating stuff for kremlinologists of the fledgling 2028 Democratic race. Playbook noted yesterday that politicians aligning themselves with anti-ICE protesters may be taking on political risk come a general election, but Newsom is playing a different game right now — and playing it well. He even leaned into Trump’s threat to have him arrested, spying the same political opportunity enjoyed by Trump himself in 2023. (POLITICO’s Jeremy White and Melanie Mason take a closer look at Newsom’s leadership prospects here.)

Incompetence and Disorder

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.

The Trump administration's incompetence extends across the river into the Pentagon.

  Matthias Gafni at SF Chronicle:

President Donald Trump’s rush to deploy California National Guard troops to Los Angeles has left dozens of soldiers without adequate sleeping arrangements, forced to pack together in one or more federal buildings, resting on the floors of what appear to be basements or loading docks, the Chronicle has learned.

The state troops federalized by the Trump administration over the weekend to confront immigration protesters, without the approval of Gov. Gavin Newsom, were “wildly underprepared,” said a person directly involved with the deployment, who asked to remain anonymous because they were not authorized to speak on the issue.

The troops — whose makeshift quarters are shown in photographs exclusively obtained by the Chronicle — arrived without federal funding for food, water, fuel, equipment or lodging, said the source, who was granted confidentiality under Chronicle policies. This person said state officials and the California National Guard were not to blame.

LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell Responds to Possible Deployment of Marines to Los Angeles pic.twitter.com/bYrUSC4m0L

— LAPD PIO (@LAPDPIO) June 9, 2025

DTLA

 Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.

Trump likes riots.  He federalized National Guard units and sent them to Los Angeles, hoping to escalate the disorder.  He got his wish.

Politico Playbook:

The scenes everyone will be talking about this morning … Masked protesters pose for photos with Mexican flags in front of a burning vehicle in downtown LA … A law enforcement official shoots an Australian journalist with non-lethal ammo, the moment captured on her own rolling news camera … Protesters pelt stranded police vehicles with e-scooters and rocks from an occupied freeway bridge … A shirtless van driver attempts to reverse-ram rioters at spinning high speeds before racing off into the night … (Second vid here from ground level).

...

For Trump, this is simply a fight he has been waiting for. The president was under no illusions about the protests that would eventually meet his deportation strategy, nor in any doubt about how he would respond when the moment came. And Saturday’s historic decision to send in the National Guard may only be the start; last night Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth put 500 Marines on standby for deployment.

And then … this: “Looking really bad in L.A.,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, shortly after midnight. “BRING IN THE TROOPS!!!” Helping Trump’s cause were comments from the LAPD that the situation has spiraled “out of control” (though Newsom is blaming Trump himself for that.) It’s worth noting that Trump has not ruled out invoking the 1807 Insurrection Act — which gives authority for a president to deploy the U.S. military on the streets — though he told reporters yesterday afternoon that he did not believe the current situation meets that bar.

This is diving-line politics, and Trump thinks he is on the winning side. The president knows Democrats will stand in opposition to his every move in L.A, but believes the popularity of his immigration policies means he has enough of the public on his side. And for these protests to have escalated so rapidly into televised riots makes the ideal backdrop for the White House’s messaging; they want the president standing up for law and order, and the deluded Dems on the side of flag-waving rioters. The fact it all came just as Trump faced one of the toughest news cycles of his presidency is just … a delicious bonus. Elon who?

But for Newsom, there’s a big opportunity too — to stand up to a bullying opponent on behalf of his home state, while playing to the broader Democratic base ahead of 2028. It was striking to see Newsom invite the Dem-friendly MSNBC cameras right inside his situation room last night to stick it to Trump directly, even as the violence on the streets continued. “Donald Trump needs to pull back,” Newsom told viewers sternly. “He needs to stand down. Donald Trump is inflaming these conditions.”

And there’s more: There were even echoes of the WWE locker room when Newsom was told that border czar Tom Homan has not ruled out arresting California’s leaders if they obstruct federal law enforcement. “He’s a tough guy. Why doesn’t he do that?” Newsom shot back. “He knows where to find me.” Addressing Homan directly, he added: “Lay your hands off four-year-old girls who are trying to get an education … Come after me. Arrest me. Let’s just get it over with, tough guy.” Reminder: these people are meant to be the grown-ups.

Trump v. California

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.

The federal government is taking over the California National Guard and deploying 2,000 soldiers in Los Angeles — not because there is a shortage of law enforcement, but because they want a spectacle.

Don't give them one.

Never use violence. Speak out peacefully.

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) June 8, 2025

The Secretary of Defense is now threatening to deploy active-duty Marines on American soil against its own citizens.

This is deranged behavior.

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) June 8, 2025

Money Into Trump's Pocket

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.  Its corruption is unprecedented.   Qatar's gift of a jet is just one example. His memecoin is another.

Eric Lipton et al. at NYT:

The Trump White House has repeatedly sounded an alarm about visitors with ties to China’s Communist Party coming to the United States, arguing that they are a potential security threat.

But the administration appears to have literally left the door open to a member of a Chinese government group when it went along with a plan to give the biggest purchasers of President Trump’s digital currency access to the president and the White House.

Mr. Trump launched a so-called memecoin, a type of cryptocurrency, just days before his inauguration. To bolster sales, the president’s business partners created a contest in April, offering the coin’s top buyers a tour of the White House and a private dinner with Mr. Trump at his Virginia golf club.

One of those buyers was He Tianying, who is a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, according to government documents in China examined by The New York Times.

A four-month list from NYT:

• While administration officials engage in complex negotiations in the Middle East, Mr. Trump and his family are making billions of dollars’ worth of deals with players in the region. The Trump Organization has six real estate projects planned in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the United Arab Emirates. The company struck a deal with the Qatari government to build a golf club and beachside villas that will bring in millions of dollars in fees. Mr. Trump announced recently that Qatar was donating a Boeing 747-8 worth about $200 million to serve as a more luxurious Air Force One, which he has said could go to his presidential library after he leaves office. For all this, he has made clear that tiny Qatar can expect a cozy relationship. “We are going to protect this country,” Mr. Trump said in Doha. “It’s a very special place, with a special royal family.”
• During his first term, those currying favor with Mr. Trump bought drinks and dinner or spent the night at his Washington hotel. Now they can spend half a million dollars to join the private club Donald Trump Jr. is opening in Georgetown. It is called Executive Branch. The club’s founding members include Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, twin brothers whose cryptocurrency company was being sued by the S.E.C. — until Mr. Trump’s administration put a hold on the lawsuit.
• As his administration is negotiating with Vietnam to reduce the tariffs he imposed on the country’s goods, the government there is making way for a $1.5 billion golf complex outside Hanoi, as well as a Trump skyscraper in Ho Chi Minh City. Vietnamese officials said in a letter that the real estate project needed to be fast-tracked because it was “receiving special attention from the Trump administration and President Donald Trump personally.”
• Serbian officials cleared the way for a Trump International Hotel in Belgrade by using a forged document to permit the demolition of a cultural site at the location. Serbian opposition leaders say the forgery demonstrates how eager the country’s government has been to do a deal benefiting Mr. Trump.
• Mr. Trump has held meetings, including one in the Oval Office, to force a merger between the PGA Tour and the Saudi-backed LIV golf circuit, which frequently holds tournaments on Trump courses. In April, LIV Golf paid the Trump family to host a tournament at the Trump National Doral in Florida. A merger could lead to more such events.
• The right-wing activist Elizabeth Fago attended a $1 million-per-person fund-raising dinner for MAGA Inc., Mr. Trump’s super PAC, in April. Less than three weeks later, The Times reported, he granted a full pardon to Ms. Fago’s son Paul Walczak, who pleaded guilty to tax crimes in 2024. The pardon is one of many issued by Mr. Trump to people who provided him with political or financial support or were associated with others who did.
• After personally suing media companies that the government regulates, including CBS/Paramount and ABC/Disney, Mr. Trump has won millions of dollars in settlements. Paramount has reportedly offered $15 million to settle a baseless lawsuit Mr. Trump filed against CBS, fearing that the Trump administration would otherwise block its planned merger with Skydance Media. Mr. Trump is demanding $25 million.
• Amazon has agreed to pay $40 million for the rights to a documentary about Melania Trump. That’s tens of millions more than such projects usually cost, Hollywood executives have said. Mrs. Trump’s cut is more than 70 percent. Defense contracts for web services would be reason enough for Amazon to curry favor with Mr. Trump.
• Mr. Trump’s inaugural committee raised $239 million, mostly from large corporations and business leaders. The committee spent far less than that on the inauguration and faces few legal restrictions on what to do with the rest of the money. It is typical for presidents not to spend all of their inaugural funds, but previous presidents raised far less than Mr. Trump. The largest donor, a chicken processor called Pilgrim’s Pride, already seems to be benefiting from favorable government policies, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Trump v. Musk, Friday ed.

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.

Jonathan Karl at ABC:

In a phone interview Friday morning, hours after his blistering exchange with Elon Musk, President Donald Trump sounded remarkably unconcerned about their feud, as if it weren't even the most interesting thing that happened Thursday.

Speaking on a phone call Friday morning shortly before 7 a.m., ABC News asked him about reports he had a call scheduled with Musk for later in the day..

"You mean the man who has lost his mind?" he asked, saying he was "not particularly" interested in talking to him right now.

e said Musk wants to talk to him, but he's not ready to talk to Musk.

Andrew Howard and Adam Wren at Politico:

“Trump has 3.5 years left as President, but I will be around for 40+ years,” Musk said on X.

The post was an unambiguous warning from the world’s richest man, who has the power to single-handedly reshape elections with his wealth. It was not long ago that Republicans hoped Musk could pour cash into their efforts to help maintain control of Washington. Instead, he’s becoming their public adversary.

Musk spent Thursday online attacking President Donald Trump over Republicans’ massive tax-and-spending bill, which Musk says does not cut enough government spending.

He’d already threatened to challenge Republicans who support the megabill; on Thursday, he blasted House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, took credit for Republicans winning trifecta control in November, and floated the idea of launching a third party.

“This is a massive crack in the MAGA coalition,” said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and a former Trump administration appointee. “This town is historically built on Republican versus Democrat, and this seems to be crazy versus crazy. It is asymmetric and it seems, for the first time, President Trump seems to be out-crazied.”

Personnel is Policy

 Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.  The administration's personnel choices are ... something.

Marc Rod and Emily Jacobs at Jewish Insider:

Multiple Senate Republicans said Wednesday that they plan to scrutinize President Donald Trump’s nomination of Paul Ingrassia, a far-right figure picked last week to lead the Office of Special Counsel, charged with fighting corruption and fighting federal whistleblowers.

Ingrassia has trafficked in conspiracy theories, including, as early as Oct. 8, 2023, describing the Hamas attack and ensuing war as a “psyop,” as well as defending prominent antisemites including Kanye West, Andrew Tate and Nick Fuentes.

Several Republican members said they were not deeply familiar with Ingrassia’s record but planned to dig into it further before his nomination hearing.

 

"Trump is the constitution" - @PaulIngrassia, Trump's pick to run the U.S. Office of Special Counsel, replying to a user who disagreed when Ingrassia said, "When Trump gets back into office, he should remove his three Supreme Court picks and replace them with true loyalists." pic.twitter.com/XfW59eOsgs

— Jason Hart (@jasonahart) June 4, 2025

Hannah Allam at Pro Publica:

When Thomas Fugate graduated from college last year with a degree in politics, he celebrated in a social media post about the exciting opportunities that lay beyond campus life in Texas. “Onward and upward!” he wrote, with an emoji of a rocket shooting into space.

His career blastoff came quickly. A year after graduation, the 22-year-old with no apparent national security expertise is now a Department of Homeland Security official overseeing the government’s main hub for terrorism prevention, including an $18 million grant program intended to help communities combat violent extremism.

The White House appointed Fugate, a former Trump campaign worker who interned at the hard-right Heritage Foundation, to a Homeland Security role that was expanded to include the Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships. Known as CP3, the office has led nationwide efforts to prevent hate-fueled attacks, school shootings and other forms of targeted violence.

Fugate’s appointment is the latest shock for an office that has been decimated since President Donald Trump returned to the White House and began remaking national security to give it a laser focus on immigration.