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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Sunday, June 24, 2018

Turnout in the California Primary was Good

 In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional politics as well as the presidential race.
News reports right after the 2018 California primary suggested that turnout was low.  But these reports were inaccurate, since there were there millions of unprocessed ballots and the deadline for accepting mail ballots would not come until Friday of that week.  Now that we have nearly-final results, it is clear that turnout was actually quite strong, at least by midterm standards. The CA Secretary of State reports on turnout as a share of registered voters.

as of June 23, 2018, 5:04 p.m.

Historical Data
PrimaryDateVoter Turnout
PresidentialJune 7, 201647.72%
GubernatorialJune 3, 201425.17%
PresidentialJune 5, 201231.06%
GubernatorialJune 8, 201033.31%
DirectJune 3, 200828.22%
PresidentialFebruary 5, 200857.71%
GubernatorialJune 6, 200633.63%

The UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative reports on Los Angeles County:
 In 66.5 percent of the Latino precincts, there was an estimated 50 percent increase in the number of ballots cast, compared to a 20.8 percent in the non- Latino precincts. This analysis suggests two things: 1) overall increase in voter turnout across Los Angeles County from ’14 to ‘18, regardless of race/ethnicity; and 2) turnout for Latino voters was higher than the countywide average, especially in dense Latino precincts.