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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Friday, June 5, 2020

Red Pandemic

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway.  

Coronavirus presents unprecedented challenges to public policy and the electoral process.

The good news for Trump is that unemployment unexpectedly dipped in May.

The bad news is that the pandemic continues, and it keeps moving into Trump constituencies.William Frey at Brookings:

After more than two months of a national economic shutdown, much of the U.S. is starting to reopen. However, COVID-19 is continuing to spread to more parts of the country; since late April, counties with a high prevalence of cases have transitioned from “blue” America to “red,” where arguments for immediate reopening have been more pervasive.

This transition is reflected in both the demographic attributes and political orientation in the most recently exposed parts of the country. Over the six weeks from April 20 to May 31, counties newly designated as having a high COVID-19 prevalence are decidedly less dense, less diverse, and more likely to have voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election than was the case for new high-prevalence counties before mid-April.

 Fig1