Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun. The DeSantis campaign has been troubled. The Haley campaign is rising ... to second place.
Dan Balz at WP:
SuperPAC backing @NikkiHaley, @SFAINC2024, out with new TV that mocks @RonDeSantis for being too much like Trump. Spot first aired at 04:42 local in Cedar Rapids market on KCRG (ABC). "Too lame to lead. Too Weak to Win," the spot says. pic.twitter.com/k6uvqHyCt2— John McCormick (@McCormickJohn) December 8, 2023
On the debate stage, both are scripted, but Haley is agile and sharp-tongued while DeSantis is a bulldozer with a bullhorn. Many pundits call her the best performer in their post-debate commentary, but polls by The Washington Post, 538 and Ipsos more often than not have given that nod to DeSantis. That was the case after Wednesday’s debate in Alabama and a reversal from the results of the debate in Miami, where those Republicans who watched thought Haley did the best.
Haley has certainly profited from her debate performances. Her poll numbers have risen while DeSantis’s have stalled or declined. That has added to the narrative of trajectories going in opposite directions.
In New Hampshire, that’s true. In July, the RealClearPolitics poll average there showed DeSantis at about 18 percent, Haley at about 4 percent, with Trump leading at 44 percent. Today, Haley is at 19 percent, DeSantis at 8 percent and trailing former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who is polling at 11 percent. Trump leads at nearly 46 percent.
Iowa presents a somewhat different picture. There are few reliable recent polls of likely Iowa caucusgoers. What has been the most reputable over time is the Iowa Poll, this year the work of the Des Moines Register and NBC News. In October, this poll showed Haley and DeSantis tied at 16 percent, far behind Trump’s 43 percent. Haley had risen 10 percentage points over the previous two months, DeSantis had fallen 3 percentage points. Polls taken since then by other organizations have shown Haley surpassing DeSantis in the state