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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Newt Slips

Gallup reports:

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich's Positive Intensity Score dropped to 6 in the two weeks spanning May 16-29, down from 11 for May 9-22. Gingrich's current Positive Intensity Score is his lowest to date, off from a score as high as 19 earlier this year, and among the lowest for any Republican candidate Gallup is tracking.

Gingrich's current Positive Intensity Score is based on the difference between the 13% of Republicans giving him a strongly favorable rating and the 7% giving him a strongly unfavorable rating, among those who recognize him. His score this week is slightly above Gary Johnson's 4, which is the lowest for anyone tested, and slightly below Jon Huntsman's 8.

Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann continue to earn the highest Positive Intensity Scores, at 25% and 21%, respectively. Below these two, several other candidates have Positive Intensity Scores in the 14 to 16 range, including two of the best-known candidates, Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, and two who are less well-known -- Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum.

Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake write at The Washington Post:

The numbers suggest Gingrich’s campaign has sustained a blow. Can he recover?

Rich Galen, a former aide to Gingrich, says no. “No one’s even talking about him any more,” said Galen.

Others were less willing to proclaim Gingrich’s campaign over almost before it started, noting that the first votes of the 2012 campaign aren’t until next February — a reality that gives Gingrich plenty of time to make up ground.

“He stumbled out of the starting gate and the latest numbers reflect some pretty harsh earned media,” said one senior Republican strategist who has closely followed Gingrich’s political career. “But it’s early and the situation is still fluid, so if he keeps his head down and plows through it, he will get a fair hearing from primary voters.”