Midterm Losses: the president's party usually loses seats in the House, often in the Senate as well.
Approval: the losses are more severe when the president is unpopular. And Trump is unpopular.
![rakich-trump-approval-0213_net](https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2017/02/rakich-trump-approval-0213_net.png?w=575&h=496&quality=90&strip=info)
The House the generic ballot, and seat ratings
Lots of R retirements
Lots of D candidates, with money
This Tuesday, watch a special election in Arizona.
Senate races: the map constrains Democratic gains
Governorships